Matt4319
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Post by Matt4319 on May 20, 2009 7:45:17 GMT -5
#33 with 318 spins. Not quite as good as I had predicted, but I probably underestimated the amount of time it was available for play on Monday. At any rate, I doubt it will debut in the top 10.
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Rich P.
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Post by Rich P. on May 20, 2009 8:14:36 GMT -5
So my formula from yesterday predicts this week will be 318 + (318-138)*5 = 1218, which would be a number 10 debut. I also noticed this is on 55 stations; just about all the top 10 is 60+. What's up with those 16 stations, don't have $1.29 for iTunes?
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Matt4319
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Post by Matt4319 on May 20, 2009 8:45:08 GMT -5
So my formula from yesterday predicts this week will be 318 + (318-138)*5 = 1218, which would be a number 10 debut. I also noticed this is on 55 stations; just about all the top 10 is 60+. What's up with those 16 stations, don't have $1.29 for iTunes? Again, you're using calculations to project its position on Monday. That's fine if you're looking for the song's position after its first 7 days, but I just want to make sure you realize I was referring to "debut" as its position on Sunday night.
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Rich P.
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Post by Rich P. on May 20, 2009 9:05:54 GMT -5
Thanks Matt, sounds like this isn't clear to me. I thought that the Monday early morning report from mediabase was just about 100% aligned with the "Official Week End Report" that's used by groups such as Billboard. So, if that's the case, after today's report, new spins will be added from Thursday (for Wednesday), Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, five more days.
Am I counting an extra day here?
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Matt4319
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Post by Matt4319 on May 20, 2009 9:16:24 GMT -5
Thanks Matt, sounds like this isn't clear to me. I thought that the Monday early morning report from mediabase was just about 100% aligned with the "Official Week End Report" that's used by groups such as Billboard. So, if that's the case, after today's report, new spins will be added from Thursday (for Wednesday), Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, five more days. Am I counting an extra day here? For Billboard, no. I believe their week starts and ends a day later. (Funny, I didn't even think to consider whether the difference was due to your predicting the Billboard debut rather than the Mediabase debut.)
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Rich P.
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Post by Rich P. on May 20, 2009 9:23:05 GMT -5
So the Billboard debut correlates well to the Mediabase Monday morning update? Is there a different report that specifies the Mediabase end of week numbers? I always thought the Monday morning update did that too. Thanks.
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Post by fran182 on May 20, 2009 11:21:28 GMT -5
Today, it reached top 40 on Mediabase Alternative:
- 33 LINKIN PARK New Divide 318 - 318 2.079
60 stations playing.
Today, it reached top 50 on Mediabase Active:
- 47 LINKIN PARK New Divide 198 - 198 1.069
54 stations playing.
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Post by allnightmarelong on May 20, 2009 16:41:23 GMT -5
I can't disrespect a band that will try something new instead of repackaging the same sound. my musical tastes have changed an awful lot since Meteora came out. it's gone in a different direction than LP's music has hence why I'm not a huge fan of MTM and this single.
with that aside, I still don't like where they're going musically. yes Bleed It Out was a catchy song I listened to a lot but the over all mood and mellowness of the last album put me to sleep.
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Rich P.
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Post by Rich P. on May 21, 2009 8:16:15 GMT -5
Formula update: Monday Morning Update Spin Track = 536 + (536-318)*4 = 1408. If this is the result, New Divide will debut at 7, 8, or 9 depending on droppers. I'm not 100% clear on Mediabase / Billboard / Sunday / Monday variables, so if this formula is still off for one of those reasons, my apologies.
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Post by fran182 on May 21, 2009 15:23:03 GMT -5
Today, it reached top 40 on Mediabase Active:
- 32 LINKIN PARK New Divide 342 - 342 1.620
58 stations playing.
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Rich P.
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Post by Rich P. on May 22, 2009 9:35:26 GMT -5
Little change in prediction: 760 + (760-536)*3 = 1432, still debuts at 7, 8, or 9.
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Post by fran182 on May 22, 2009 13:09:54 GMT -5
Today, it reached top 20 on Mediabase Alternative:
- 17 LINKIN PARK New Divide 760 - 760 4.245
63 stations playing.
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Post by fran182 on May 24, 2009 9:38:18 GMT -5
Today, it reached top 10 on Mediabase Alternative:
- 10 LINKIN PARK New Divide 1157 - 1157 6.010
64 stations playing.
Today, it reached top 20 on Mediabase Active:
- 18 LINKIN PARK New Divide 790 - 790 3.585
67 stations playing.
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Post by fran182 on May 26, 2009 14:14:54 GMT -5
Today, it reached top 5 on Mediabase Alternative:
57 5 LINKIN PARK New Divide 1415 129 1286 6.862
65 stations playing.
Today, it reached top 10 on Mediabase Active:
58 10 LINKIN PARK New Divide 999 82 917 4.426
67 stations playing.
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aTunes
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Post by aTunes on May 26, 2009 22:22:52 GMT -5
This should be #1 on Alt this time next week.
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Rich P.
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Post by Rich P. on May 27, 2009 9:38:57 GMT -5
Don't think that's going to happen. I don't have the daily movement totals, but I think New Divide is growing by less than 100 per week, which would keep it around 1500 for this week at this trend. I don't think Green Day will lose sufficient spins to make 1500 number 1.
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Post by fran182 on Jun 6, 2009 17:05:25 GMT -5
Today, it reached top 5 on Mediabase Active:
8 5 LINKIN PARK New Divide 1431 1167 264 5.333
75 stations playing.
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Post by Shadows in the Dark on Jun 9, 2009 12:29:53 GMT -5
#1 on Mediabase Alternative:
1 4 LINKIN PARK New Divide 1893 1758 135
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Rich P.
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Post by Rich P. on Jun 9, 2009 12:50:05 GMT -5
I've never seen the Sunday night updates, but on the Monday morning update, New Divide was 8 spins behind Know Your Enemy so Green Day held Linkin Park off for a week.
Looking at the rest of the chart, Green Day, Kings of Leon, and Taking Back Sunday are the only other artists that have >100 spin gain on the current chart, and Taking Back Sunday is the closest at 961 back. Don't think any of these will make it to number 1, and don't see anything else yet; could this be the start of a record run at number 1?
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(Artie Ziff)
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Post by (Artie Ziff) on Jun 9, 2009 14:43:44 GMT -5
That would be strange for a throwaway track like this. But I don't see how anyone will keep Kings Of Leon from threepeating.
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Rich P.
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Post by Rich P. on Jun 9, 2009 15:22:38 GMT -5
I think you're right about the "throwaway track" nature of this track unless Linkin Park follows this up with a full length album including this track in the next couple months. Regardless, I don't see Kings of Leon rising to number 1 until at least August, maybe September. I love Linkin Park, but I'd say that's more a statement of a lot of mediocre tracks on Alternative right now.
Though FQMB is still saying Linkin Park, Muse, No Doubt, Blink 182, and Jimmy Eat World will release albums this year...
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PHOBES
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Post by PHOBES on Jun 9, 2009 15:57:49 GMT -5
At first thought it doesn't surprise me that this hit number one. But then I think about the other songs (from the last actual LP LP), that didn't come that close. Especially "Leave Out All the Rest," that barely hit the top 10; not to mention "Given Up" and "Bleed It Out."
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mcbrearty
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Post by mcbrearty on Jun 10, 2009 14:35:34 GMT -5
Wow this song is huge. Why ???????????
Aside from the fact its Linkin Park and its being used in one of the biggest movies of the year. I think its very dull.
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Post by fran182 on Jun 10, 2009 18:16:00 GMT -5
From Billboard.biz progress reports:
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jvandyck87
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Post by jvandyck87 on Jun 10, 2009 22:36:19 GMT -5
Record run at #1? Hell no...21 Guns will be there within 2 months surely.
"Panic Switch" also could stick around long enough to have an outside shot at #1 if people lose interest in "New Divide" quickly enough, but #2 is a fine pea for them.
I'm glad this song is #1 though, partly because I like it better than any single off MTM and mostly because it's infinitely better than "Know Your Enemy" which may be my least favorite song to ever top the alternative chart. I'd have to think about it.
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Mega248
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Post by Mega248 on Jun 13, 2009 1:45:12 GMT -5
Looks like there's a slight chance the Silversun Pickups could make this a midweek-only #1, which would be ironic considering Linkin Park has been the cause of two of those ("Bring Me to Life" and "Just Because") in the past.
2 1 LINKIN PARK New Divide 1938 1856 82 9.324 3 2 SILVERSUN PICKUPS Panic Switch 1902 1780 122 9.630
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Matt4319
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Post by Matt4319 on Jun 13, 2009 11:29:26 GMT -5
That would be awesome, but I don't think it's going to happen:
2 1 LINKIN PARK New Divide 1955 1865 90 3 2 SILVERSUN PICKUPS Panic Switch 1929 1786 143
They made up 10 spins today, but would have to make up 26 spins tomorrow.
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aTunes
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Post by aTunes on Jun 17, 2009 5:23:51 GMT -5
I hope Panic Switch doesn't overtake this. I want a really long #1 run for this one, especially since they got jipped on #1's with MTM . BIO, GU, and LOATR should have been sure shot #1's on Alt, LOATR's peak there still shocks me. And BIO had the unfortunate task of taking on The Pretender, which was simply a monster at Alt.
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Post by blackhearts08 on Jun 17, 2009 15:22:40 GMT -5
i just heard the new divide song on the radio and it wasnt as good as i thought...maybe i just need to listen to it again to begin to like it...still love linkin park tho!
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Post by My Life Is A Stereo on Jun 17, 2009 19:16:19 GMT -5
Panic Switch deserves to be #1 ahead of this. New Divide is okay but it's just same old. Panic Switch is far more interesting long term.
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