Hits - 5/18 Lady Antebellum 55-65K

[Deleted]

THREE-WAY RACE FOR TOP DEBUT

The Dead Weather, The National, Charice Vie for Week’s Highest Chart Entry

May 12, 2010

There will not be a debut at #1 on HITS album sales chart next week. That much we know. Who will be on top we can’t say until we collect more data.

After parsing the one-day sales reports from those retailers around the country not flooded out or turned into Menshy’s Yogurt stores, we have narrowed down what should be the top debuts next Tuesday.

Third Man/WB’s The Dead Weather, the supergroup featuring Jack White on drums, return with their sophomore album, Sea of Cowards, on target for a debut week of between 40-45k.

That’s the same total being eyed by 4AD Brooklyn-based alterna-darlings The National, with their fifth album, High Violet, as well as 143/Reprise Filipina YouTube sensation Charice for her stateside debut.

Right behind them is Metal Blade San Diego rock vets As I Lay Dying, who take their name from the William Faulkner novel, whose latest, The Powerless Rise, should do 35-40k.

Provident Christian group Tenth Avenue North is up next with 20-25k.

Loud & Proud/Roadrunner’s Meat Loaf is back with 15-18k for his latest concept album, Hang Cool Teddy Bear.



Interscope U.K. popsters Keane are looking at an estimated 12-15k, the same total for Universal Republic’s We Are the Fallen, a group featuring the former members of Evanescence, including Ben Moody, fronted by ex-American Idol contestant Carly Smithson.

The market was up 11% vs. last week, down 7% vs. same week last year and still down 10% year to date.

Now, can someone please clean up that damn oil spill?

[HolidayGuy]

Lady A possibly returning to #1?

[areyoureadytojump]

No mention of Celine Dion.

His her live cd/dvd being counted as a dvd?

[HolidayGuy]

It's being counted just like Barbra Streisand's, apparently.

[Deleted]

Judging by the cover it is being marketed as a DVD

[Tanisha Thomas.]

Lady A will probably get #1 again. Their week to week numbers in this climate is really good.

[galvanize]

On Next Week's Billboard 200: Godsmack, Lady Antebellum, Dead Weather, The National and More

May 12, 2010 - Retail

By Keith Caulfield, L.A

• On next week's Billboard 200 albums chart, none of the albums that were released on May 11 look likely to debut with strong enough sales to enable a No. 1 entry. So perhaps we'll see Lady Antebellum return to the top slot with "Need You Now."

• Considering Godsmack's "Oracle" -- which debuted at No. 1 this week --will likely take slide an expected 50% to 60% in sales, that'll leave the sturdy "Need You Now" as the likely candidate for No. 1.

• The highest debut next week will probably be either the Dead Weather's "Sea of Cowards" or the National's "High Violet." Industry prognosticators think each album will perhaps sell around 35,000 to 40,000 by week's end on Sunday, May 16. That sum should be enough to trigger a top 10 debut for both sets.

• Also looking to bow in the top 20 are the debut album from teen phenomenon Charice with her self-titled set. The 18-year-old visited both "The Oprah Winfrey Show" and QVC yesterday. Depending on how Winfrey's army of viewers reacts to the big-voiced teen's album, it could sell around 20,000 to 30,000 -- though there is a chance it could sell more.

• Christian rock band Tenth Avenue North's second major label album "The Light Meets the Dark" could shift in the range of 20,000 to 30,000, which will easily be the act's best sales week yet. Its last set, "Over and Underneath," has been perched atop the Pop Catalog Albums chart for the past month, selling about 10,000 on a weekly basis according to Nielsen SoundScan.

• Another rock act, of a slightly different flavor, could also see its new effort begin with around 20,000 to 30,000: metal act As I Lay Dying's "The Powerless Rise."

• Over on the Hot Digital Songs chart, after an exciting week where we had Eminem's "Not Afraid," 3Oh!3's "My First Kiss" and the cast of "Glee's" "Total Eclipse of the Heart" bulldoze into the top 10 with big first weeks, next week looks a bit tamer. Presently, it's looking like the highest new entry will come from Katy Perry's "California Gurls," which features Snoop Dogg. The cast of "Glee" could also find themselves with another top 10 Digital Songs hit on their hands with its cover of Rick Springfield's "Jessie's Girl."

[Cerbius]

Terrible sales for Charice

[kissin'u]

Terrible sales for the entire chart

[Choco]

May 13, 2010 1:11:13 GMT -5 Cerbius said:

Terrible sales for Charice

Who?

She has no hit to support her album. What were you expecting?

[discoloser]

That's not too bad for Charice considering no hit single (as of now) and the type of album. I wonder if she did a cover album (ie: Buble/Boyle) if AC would have picked up on her and potential better sales.

[Myth X]

Pathetic sales overall.

[Adam (UTR)]

Oops...

YOUR SOMEWHAT DISPIRITING WEAKEND CHART PREVIEW

After a strong start to 2010 and some very successful Q1 releases, it's back to the race for the bottom, with next week potentially marking the lowest total for a #1 album since the industry started tracking sales totals. Yikes. The current record holder is the Dreamgirls soundtrack, which held the #1 spot with 60k in January 2007. On the bright side, what’s sucky for the majors and the mainstream represents an opening for the indies and the arty fringe, led by critical and grass-roots faves The National, on 4AD, who are on track for a 50k+ first-week and a possible #2 bow. Lady A once again gets the slight edge for the top, but several titles are on track to challenge, including The National, along with the usual suspects. Here's how things are shaping up as the weekend approaches:

Lady Antebellum (Capitol Nashville/EMI) 55-65k
* The National (4AD) 50-55k
Justin Bieber (Island/IDJ) 50-55k
AC/DC (Columbia) 45-50k
Carole King & James Taylor (Hear Music) 45-50k
Godsmack (Universal Republic) 40-45k
Usher (LaFace/JLG) 40-45k
* The Dead Weather (Warner Bros.) 40-45k
* As I Lay Dying (Metal Blade) 35-40k
* Charice (Reprise) 35-40k
Lady Gaga (Interscope) 30-35k
Court Yard Hounds (Columbia) 30-35k
B.o.B (Atlantic) 30-35k
Now 33 (Capitol/EMI) 25-30k
* Tenth Avenue North (Reunion) 20-25k
Michael Buble (Reprise) 20-25k
Deftones (Reprise) 20-25k
* Denotes debut

You may now return to praying for LeBron to drop into your team’s lap come July 1.

[tsw2008]

yikes...horrible sales. Top 10 debut for Charice, too bad about the sales.

[colson]

Awful overall sales. Well at least Charice will have a top 10 album.

[Tanisha Thomas.]

I kinda saw this coming. But oh well. I think the summer will be worse for some reason.

Good to see Usher and B.o.B holding on strong.

[HolidayGuy]

The overall top 10 numbers' predictions are not far off from recent weeks (better than some), but the #1 projection indeed is depressing.

[Honeymoon]

Oh dear at the #1 sales, I think we can narrowly escape the all-time low of 60k though. *Buys Lady Antebellum album*

The rest of the top ten sales aren't totally awful though.

[galvanize]

Wonderful for the National - #2 debut! :o :o

Too bad sales truly are at an all-time low though... I think Lady Antebellum will probably just sneak past the "Dreamgirls" soundtrack low sales at #1.

[galvanize]

And very surprising & nice that Carole King could get a second week in the top 5. :o

[lugus15]

I wish they would make a major discount on The Fame album, so it gets it's very deserved week at #1 on the B200.

[HolidayGuy]

^On what basis does it "deserve" it? It hasn't sold more than any other album in a week, and that's the only basis of whether it would "deserve" it. Do ya think Shania Twain's upset that Come On Over didn't peak at No. 1? :) (just one example of many)

[Deleted]

An album "deserves" #1 if it sells more copies than any other album during the week.

As mentioned above an album can still be a big hit without ever reaching #1

[Tanisha Thomas.]

Some of the biggest selling albums of a certain era or ever didn't reach #1.

[Honeymoon]

Yes, longevity is often more important than a #1 peak. Do you think most of the US public even knows what goes #1 and what doesn't?

[Deleted]

Most of the public that reads entertainment sites certainly do

the tops of billboard charts are published all over the place

[Tanisha Thomas.]

Well, do most care? I don't think most of the general public care what goes #1 or top 10, unless they are like us --- chart heads. Some of the biggest impacting songs and albums didn't see a day @ #1. The public will most likely remember its impact, not necessarily where it landed on the charts.

[lugus15]

^ Can everyone please get their head out of their own's asses and understand what I meant.

[Honeymoon]

May 14, 2010 13:43:07 GMT -5 @2m said:

Most of the public that reads entertainment sites certainly do

the tops of billboard charts are published all over the place

Let's put this in perspective, The Fame has been charting since the Summer of 2008 and Gaga's had seven huge hits since then, most of the people who I know that keep up with pop/chart music and Gaga's career wouldn't have any idea that she only made #2 on the album chart. To them it's just an album campaign that has been rolling for almost two years and produced loads of hit singles and Gaga as a pop icon and performer.

Of course having a "#1 album" is a great tag that many record companies will use but frankly most of the general public have no idea what The Fame has or hasn't reached on the album chart.

[Love Plastic Love]

Lol@ thinking the general public can state the peaks of albums on charts.