Billboard Hot 100 - 7/24/10

[Rodze]

Jul 13, 2010 21:10:18 GMT -5 Love Plastic Love said:

I think several things dictate how big a hit is. I look at several components-airplay, longevity, album sales, pop culture impact, and digital sales. Rude Boy had a HUGE airplay impact, but, to me and somewhat surprisingly, not so much in the other components. Like, it just hit 2 million total sold. To put this in comparison, there are tons of members around this forum that shriek that songs are horrible flops if they sell under 2.5 million.
I am not saying it wasn't a big hit because it was. But, out of smash hits I would say it was a smaller smash hit or didn't quite have the impact that other big hits of its caliber have had.
I would still say it was a bigger hit than Breakeven, but even then I would need more info. How much of a smash was that song in the rock/hot ac/ac sections? How many digital singles did they sell? How much has their album sold as a reaction to the song?

This isn't a diss toward Rihanna, by the way. I like Rihanna and have defended her even when everyone was bashing her. I was just surprised how little impact Rude Boy had for a song that got like...150 million+ airplay. I think she will have songs on her new cd that make Rude Boy look like a joke.

Breakeven and Rude Boy probably have equivalent digital sales (~2 million).

Rude Boy probably has more airplay (Breakeven might have more longevity, but who knows?).

Breakeven
HAC #1
POP #7
AC #10
Radio Songs #9

Rude Boy
RHY #1
URB #1
POP #1
HAC #29
Radio Songs #1

The Script is a little over 250k release-to-date; Rated R sold over 300k since February (615k to 930k)

(Except for "Radio Songs", airplay peaks are from Mediabase).

[fridayteenage]

To be fair, though I don't know why people are arguing about Check on It, probably about 99% of the population don't own Bey's CD's so wouldn't think about what songs are on which. And about the same number probably haven't seen the video enough times to know what it's about.

Em +12% to 314k; 2nd week at 300k I believe. Looks like #1 thanks to Katy's sharp decline, down 15%. It's down freaking more than 100k vs. when it was last on top.

The rest of the top ten approximately: Airplanes 290, OMG 269, Dynamite 248, Billionaire 246, Cooler than Me 219, I Like It 200, Ridin’ Solo 191, Not Afraid 174. Find Your Love might be #10 instead thanks to airplay. It looks like Enrique has his biggest charter in 9 years, 4th highest overall.

[Love Plastic Love]

Jul 14, 2010 12:35:53 GMT -5 Rodze said:

Jul 13, 2010 21:10:18 GMT -5 Love Plastic Love said:

I think several things dictate how big a hit is. I look at several components-airplay, longevity, album sales, pop culture impact, and digital sales. Rude Boy had a HUGE airplay impact, but, to me and somewhat surprisingly, not so much in the other components. Like, it just hit 2 million total sold. To put this in comparison, there are tons of members around this forum that shriek that songs are horrible flops if they sell under 2.5 million.
I am not saying it wasn't a big hit because it was. But, out of smash hits I would say it was a smaller smash hit or didn't quite have the impact that other big hits of its caliber have had.
I would still say it was a bigger hit than Breakeven, but even then I would need more info. How much of a smash was that song in the rock/hot ac/ac sections? How many digital singles did they sell? How much has their album sold as a reaction to the song?

This isn't a diss toward Rihanna, by the way. I like Rihanna and have defended her even when everyone was bashing her. I was just surprised how little impact Rude Boy had for a song that got like...150 million+ airplay. I think she will have songs on her new cd that make Rude Boy look like a joke.

Breakeven and Rude Boy probably have equivalent digital sales (~2 million).

Rude Boy probably has more airplay (Breakeven might have more longevity, but who knows?).

Breakeven
HAC #1
POP #7
AC #10
Radio Songs #9

Rude Boy
RHY #1
URB #1
POP #1
HAC #29
Radio Songs #1

The Script is a little over 250k release-to-date; Rated R sold over 300k since February (615k to 930k)

(Except for "Radio Songs", airplay peaks are from Mediabase).

Thanks! This is the type of analysis I love! I suppose Rude Boy's airplay is overwhelming and gives it status as a huge hit, but it still surprises me how little it really sold or helped the album for its huge airplay. Who knows though-it is possible that people were still a little turned off by the darker image and first single so the song had less of an impact than if it had been released first or following another Rihanna smash.

[slicknickshady]

Jul 14, 2010 15:04:41 GMT -5 fridayteenage said:

To be fair, though I don't know why people are arguing about Check on It, probably about 99% of the population don't own Bey's CD's so wouldn't think about what songs are on which. And about the same number probably haven't seen the video enough times to know what it's about.

Em +12% to 314k; 2nd week at 300k I believe. Looks like #1 thanks to Katy's sharp decline, down 15%. It's down freaking more than 100k vs. when it was last on top.

The rest of the top ten approximately: Airplanes 290, OMG 269, Dynamite 248, Billionaire 246, Cooler than Me 219, I Like It 200, Ridin’ Solo 191, Not Afraid 174. Find Your Love might be #10 instead thanks to airplay. It looks like Enrique has his biggest charter in 9 years, 4th highest overall.

I hope LTWYL will be #1 this week but idk. I think next week for sure though.

Oh and if it's me that you think im obnoxious about the song...not really. It's not even close to my favorite song on the album Recovery.

[nighttime]

LTWYL: 314.000
LTWYL: 66.965
381 pts

CG: 236.000
CG: 141.035
377 pts.

who will come out on top this week? :o

[slicknickshady]

I read somewhere video streams count but i don't know how much that is worth.

I hope it's LTWYL but worst case scenario next week!

[jj99$ - - LeLe]

come on EM

[slicknickshady]

Jul 14, 2010 18:10:00 GMT -5 jj99$ - - LeLe said:

come on EM

Yes, Hopefully! I hope it's Love The Way You Lie!

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Wow Em actually went up. I thought it was going to be downhill for LTWYL as far as downloads go. Instead they went up.

[slw84]

Jul 14, 2010 17:28:25 GMT -5 nighttime said:

LTWYL: 314.000
LTWYL: 66.965
381 pts

CG: 236.000
CG: 141.035
377 pts.

who will come out on top this week? :o

Wow and I thought that it would take forever to dethrone California Gurls...then again I thought the same thing about OMG. At least everyone is getting a decent chance at #1 instead of the boring 12 week #1 for songs that will be forgotten in 4 years.

[kjw518]

^^My thoughts exactly

[David]

How long has Cali Gurls been #1?

I would love to see LTWYL get the #1 spot. I like both songs though, so its cool either way.

Also, I miss getting full digital sales. :( Oh well... I suppose we will get that as a treat every now & again. I'm just glad we still get the full Hot 100.

[Minor Scratch]

How can you compare Rihanna to The Script? Regardless of how Rude Boy did, Rihanna is a much more established artist. If Rude Boy was her first single, she wouldn't have got even close to those airplay numbers. This is The Script's first big hit ever. I'm sure if it were their 16th or 17th CHR hit like Rihanna, they would have had a much better chance at #1. You just can't measure it the same.

[nighttime]

California Gurls takes the top spot for a sixth week. Next week for Lie

[d.t.m]

^Dammit! Katy's had a long enough ride on top.

[slicknickshady]

Jul 14, 2010 19:59:36 GMT -5 nighttime said:

California Gurls takes the top spot for a sixth week. Next week for Lie

Link?

I believe you. I just can't find a link anywhere.

Still if this is the case it's what i thought all along. If it get's it next week it's still all good.

[nighttime]

new.music.yahoo.com/blogs/chart_watch/58392/week-ending-july-11-2010-a-full-recovery/

3rd paragrapth down

[slicknickshady]

Ah so he updated it. Ok. I guess the video streams were worth enough to give it to Perry again. Hopefully Em can get it next week.

[Rodze]

From Paul Grein's:

Digital songs:

01 Love the Way You Lie - Eminem FT. Rihanna - 314,000 / 936,000
02 California Gurls - Katy Perry FT. Snoop Dogg - 236,000 / 2,623,000
03 Dynamite - Taio Cruz - 206,000 / 707,000
04 Airplanes - B.O.B. FT. Hayley Williams - 171,000 / 2,617,000
05 I Like It - Enrique Iglesias FT. Pitbull - 171,000 / ?
06 Billionaire - Travie McCoy FT. Bruno Mars - 156,000 / 1,592,000
07 Cooler Than Me - Mike Posner - 145,000 / ?
08 Ridin' Solo - Jason DeRulo - 144,000 / 1,000,000+
09 Not Afraid - Eminem - 140,000 / 1,750,000
10 OMG - Usher FT. will.i.am - 132,000 / 2,769,000

Alejandro - Lady Gaga - 72,000 / 1,484,000
Waka Waka - Shakira - 46,000 / 307,000
Your Love - Nicki Minaj - 44,000 / 278,000
Ride - Ciara - 17,000 / 214,000


Total update:
Tik Tok - Ke$ha - 5,000,000
Lose Yourself - Eminem - 2,830,000
Empire State of Mind - Jay-Z + Alicia Keys - 3,813,000
Run This Town - Jay-Z + Kanye West Rihanna - 2,493,000
Young Forever - Jay-Z + Mr. Hudson - 2,000,000
Whatcha Say - Jason DeRulo - 3,315,000
In My Head - Jason DeRulo - 2,302,000
Bleeding Love - Leona Lewis - 4,017,000
Because You Loved Me - Celine Dion - 473,000
The Power of Love - Celine Dion - 262,000
I Surrender - Celine Dion - 43,000

[slicknickshady]

I hope Eminem can do over 300 K next week. I will be dissapointed if LTWYL never hit's #1 on the Hot 100.

[Rodze]

His lead has only gotten bigger this week, even if he doesn't do 300k, should be enough to outperform CG.

[slicknickshady]

Yeah. I think it's going to have legs. I just always go by the theory nothing ever is a guarantee. I didn't expect LTWYL to get it this week but when i realized it was so close it's a dissapointment not to see it get it this week. It should get it next week but who knows. As long as it get's #1 one time i'm cool with whatever it does. lol.

[d.t.m]

Next week looks like a given for EMRI.

[slicknickshady]

nighttime, fwiw...When that article was first released today Paul said LTWYL would most likely be #1 on the Hot 100 this week and when the chart was released he would update the article.

Well he obviously found out some other way that Katy would be it for another week. I just don't know how Paul found out since the chart isnt released yet. Must be an insider source.

The following probably references paul's blog before he edited it or perez before paul edited it but fwiw..

www.411mania.com/music/news/145566/Eminem-Expected-to-Take-Over-Top-Spot-on-Billboard-Hot-100.htm

[nighttime]

Oh, okay then - that makes more sense lol. I didn't know that, thanks

[slicknickshady]

I saw your post in the pop thread though. I hate Perez. Especially the way he bashes Eminem. I think his blog is a joke as well. But my guess is Perez is blog entry and that 411 news thing saw the yahoo blog where Paul said probably #1. Paul really should stop doing that. He has great blogs with great info but he assumes to much then has to edit it. Still he answered my question about Tool's album sales last week so he get's a pass from me. lol.

[Diego]

Hot 100

1 1 9 California Gurls, Katy Perry Featuring Snoop Dogg
2 2 3 Love The Way You Lie, Eminem Featuring Rihanna
3 4 13 Airplanes, B.o.B Featuring Hayley Williams
4 3 15 OMG, Usher Featuring will.i.am
5 5 15 Billionaire, Travie McCoy Featuring Bruno Mars
6 7 6 Dynamite, Taio Cruz
7 6 11 Cooler Than Me, Mike Posner
8 18 9 I Like It, Enrique Iglesias Featuring Pitbull
9 8 10 Find Your Love, Drake
10 9 15 Ridin' Solo, Jason Derulo
11 10 10 Not Afraid, Eminem
12 11 22 Your Love Is My Drug, Ke$ha
13 12 15 Alejandro, Lady Gaga
14 14 20 Break Your Heart, Taio Cruz Featuring Ludacris
15 13 19 Bulletproof, La Roux
16 17 12 Impossible, Shontelle
17 16 41 Hey, Soul Sister, Train
18 23 6 Your Love, Nicki Minaj
19 19 24 Nothin' On You, B.o.B Featuring Bruno Mars
20 15 9 Somebody To Love, Justin Bieber
21 24 14 Un-Thinkable (I'm Ready), Alicia Keys
22 21 48 Need You Now, Lady Antebellum
23 20 10 My First Kiss, 3OH!3 Featuring Ke$ha
24 26 21 All I Do Is Win, DJ Khaled Featuring T-Pain, Ludacris, Snoop Dogg & Rick Ross
25 27 11 Undo It, Carrie Underwood
26 28 31 In My Head, Jason Derulo
27 29 15 Hello Good Morning, Diddy - Dirty Money Featuring T.I.
28 30 32 Breakeven, The Script
29 22 2 POWER, Kanye West
30 34 17 There Goes My Baby, Usher
31 25 11 Rock That Body, The Black Eyed Peas
32 38 11 Lover, Lover, Jerrod Niemann
33 32 41 Haven't Met You Yet, Michael Buble
34 36 16 Pray For You, Jaron And The Long Road To Love
35 39 8 Free, Zac Brown Band
36 33 22 Rude Boy, Rihanna
37 35 16 The House That Built Me, Miranda Lambert
38 40 16 Rain Is A Good Thing, Luke Bryan
39 47 5 Waka Waka (This Time For Africa), Shakira Featuring Freshlyground
40 44 11 Gettin' Over You, David Guetta & Chris Willis Featuring Fergie & LMFAO
41 41 14 This Afternoon, Nickelback
42 42 13 Water, Brad Paisley
43 46 33 Telephone, Lady Gaga Featuring Beyonce
44 54 3 Misery, Maroon 5
45 50 12 Ride, Ciara Featuring Ludacris
46 31 8 Can't Be Tamed, Miley Cyrus
47 43 18 Over, Drake
48 56 16 I Never Told You, Colbie Caillat
49 45 30 Whataya Want From Me, Adam Lambert
50 58 7 Teach Me How To Dougie, Cali Swag District
51 52 10 Love Like Crazy, Lee Brice
52 64 7 The Only Exception, Paramore
53 48 3 Round & Round, Selena Gomez & The Scene
54 59 6 Pretty Good At Drinkin' Beer, Billy Currington
55 61 6 Got Your Back, T.I. Featuring Keri Hilson
56 60 5 Beautiful Monster, Ne-Yo
57 55 10 Lose My Mind, Young Jeezy Featuring Plies
58 63 2 Jar Of Hearts, Christina Perri
59 57 15 She Won't Be Lonely Long, Clay Walker
60 66 7 Half Of My Heart, John Mayer
61 70 4 Pretty Boy Swag, Soulja Boy Tell'em
62 53 13 Crazy Town, Jason Aldean
63 51 3 King Of Anything, Sara Bareilles
64 69 5 If It's Love, Train
65 62 20 My Chick Bad, Ludacris Featuring Nicki Minaj
66 77 6 Animal, Neon Trees
67 71 7 I'm In, Keith Urban
68 78 5 Magic, B.o.B Featuring Rivers Cuomo
69 80 5 Our Kind Of Love, Lady Antebellum
70 83 3 Secrets, OneRepublic
71 76 6 Little White Church, Little Big Town
72 73 7 Sex Room, Ludacris Featuring Trey Songz
73 85 3 If I Had You, Adam Lambert
74 75 8 Glitter In The Air, Pink
75 72 6 Miss Me, Drake Featuring Lil Wayne
76 74 20 Gimmie That Girl, Joe Nichols
77 79 7 Hold You (Hold Yuh), Gyptian
78 67 3 No Love, Eminem Featuring Lil Wayne
79 68 17 If We Ever Meet Again, Timbaland Featuring Katy Perry
80 89 4 Farmer's Daughter, Rodney Atkins
81 95 2 We'll Be A Dream, WE the Kings Featuring Demi Lovato
82 88 7 Kissin U, Miranda Cosgrove
83 94 6 Wavin' Flag, K'Naan
84 91 4 All About Tonight, Blake Shelton
85 82 6 Shark In The Water, V V Brown
86 92 4 This Ain't Nothin', Craig Morgan
87 86 19 The Man I Want To Be, Chris Young
88 81 16 Eenie Meenie, Sean Kingston & Justin Bieber
89 65 2 Club Can't Handle Me, Flo Rida Featuring David Guetta
90 93 4 143, Bobby Brackins Featuring Ray J
91 97 2 All Over Me, Josh Turner
92 1 If I Die Young, The Band Perry
93 99 2 Cuando Me Enamoro, Enrique Iglesias Featuring Juan Luis Guerra
94 NEW 1 Bittersweet, Fantasia
95 RE-ENTRY 3 Lay Me Down, The Dirty Heads Featuring Rome
96 87 2 Deuces, Chris Brown Featuring Tyga & Kevin McCall
97 96 20 Neighbors Know My Name, Trey Songz
98 NEW 1 B.M.F. (Blowin' Money Fast), Rick Ross Featuring Styles P
99 NEW 1 Up On The Ridge, Dierks Bentley
100 98 5 Never Say Never, Justin Bieber Featuring Jaden Smith

Bubbling Under Hot 100

1 8 5 Mockingbird, Rob Thomas
2 12 3 Roll With It, Easton Corbin
3 5 6 Our God, Chris Tomlin
4 7 5 Get Off On The Pain, Gary Allan
5 13 4 Way Out Here, Josh Thompson
6 1 La La La, Auburn Featuring Iyaz
7 11 14 Nina Bonita, Chino Y Nacho
8 16 7 Why Would You Stay?, Kem
9 1 Love All Over Me, Monica
10 9 15 The Good Life, Three Days Grace
11 15 2 Lisztomania, Phoenix
12 1 They Roll, Nipsey Hussle
13 14 2 Bad Company, Five Finger Death Punch
14 1 Hard Hat And A Hammer, Alan Jackson
15 18 2 Already Taken, Trey Songz
16 1 Boys In The Summer, Jessie James
17 22 2 Dime Que Me Quieres, Banda El Recodo
18 2 It's In The Morning, Robin Thicke Featuring Snoop Dogg
19 3 2 Make Up Bag, The-Dream Featuring T.I.
20 1 Shutterbugg, Big Boi Featuring Cutty
21 17 3 The Crow And The Butterfly, Shinedown
22 21 2 Opposite Of Adults, Chiddy Bang
23 1 Ordinary Girl, Hannah Montana
24 1 Champagne Life, Ne-Yo
25 25 2 Turning Home, David Nail

[felipe]

I can't believe how Alicia is just barely missing top 20.

[erzo01]

8 18 9 I Like It, Enrique Iglesias Featuring Pitbull

Just as when I'm starting to like it..

70 83 3 Secrets, OneRepublic

YES!

1 8 5 Mockingbird, Rob Thomas

Hoping this enters the Hot 100 next week. :)

And no more "I Gotta Feeling" in the Hot 100.

[slicknickshady]

Well...Next week for Em.