kylecburke
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Post by kylecburke on Jul 18, 2012 14:19:12 GMT -5
Stronger was #1 on so many charts and its so much lower on this chart. I hope by the end of the year its Top 5
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icefire9
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Post by icefire9 on Jul 18, 2012 14:49:15 GMT -5
Stronger was #1 on so many charts and its so much lower on this chart. I hope by the end of the year its Top 5 Stronger's biggest barrier aren't the songs ahead of it, all of which have either fallen off or will fall off very soon, but WAY and SIUTK, which are going to pass it sometime soon. Based off of last year's data, a song would need to get at least 2600 points to have a good chance at the year end top 5 on the official Billboard year end chart. I'm hedging my bets on this though because the change in Billboard's chart methodology has slowed down the chart a lot, resulting in overall higher point totals. |
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dlostfan
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Post by dlostfan on Jul 19, 2012 13:05:29 GMT -5
As of week 35 as per Billboard:
Top Digital Songs
1. Somebody That I used to Know - 5.74
2. We Are Young - 5.27
3. Call Me Maybe - 4.49
4. Sexy and I Know It - 3.87
5. Payphone - 3.41
6. Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You) - 3.40
7. Starships - 3.28
8. Set Fire to the Rain - 3.26
9. What Makes You Beautiful - 3.03
10. Wild Ones - 3.01
11. Glad You Came - 2.96
12. We Found Love - 2.77
13. Boyfriend - 2.72
14. Good Feeling - 2.65
15. Young, Wild & Free - 2.59
16. Party Rock Anthem - 2.51
17. The Motto - 2.50
Top Radio Songs
1. We Found Love - 3.10
2. Set Fire to the Rain - 2.45
3. Good Feeling - 2.24
4. Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You) - 2.10
5. Somebody That I used to Know - 2.05
6. We Are Young - 2.01
7. It Will Rain - 1.93
8. Glad You Came - 1.92
9. Sexy and I Know It - 1.82
10. Moves Like Jagger - 1.78
11. Take Care - 1.66
12. The One That I Got Away - 1.60
13. The Motto - 1.58
14. Turn Me On - 1.50
15. Without You - 1.49
16. Wild Ones - 1.49
17. Starships - 1.49
Hot 100
1. Somebody That I used to Know
2. We Are Young
3. We Found Love
4. Set Fire to the Rain
5. Sexy and I Know It
6. Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You)
7. Call Me Maybe
8. Good Feeling
9. Glad You Came
10. Starships
11. Wild Ones
12. Payphone
13. It Will Rain
14. The Motto
15. What Makes You Beautiful
16. Moves Like Jagger
17. Party Rock Anthem
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Rodze
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Post by Rodze on Jul 19, 2012 15:30:00 GMT -5
Is this from Billboard or your estimations?
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dlostfan
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Post by dlostfan on Jul 20, 2012 0:10:29 GMT -5
My estimates according to Billboard chart rules.
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SPRΞΞ
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Post by SPRΞΞ on Jul 20, 2012 0:40:12 GMT -5
it's going to be roughly that, tho i question Party Rock Anthem's appearance.
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dlostfan
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Post by dlostfan on Jul 20, 2012 2:26:13 GMT -5
PRA was on Hot 100 charts for 34 weeks should get a couple more weeks on digital sales chart.
It will definitely finish in Top-25 and has a good shot at making #20 in year-end charts.
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dlostfan
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Post by dlostfan on Jul 20, 2012 2:57:45 GMT -5
2012 YEAR-END HOT 100 PRELIMINARY PREDICTIONS:
#1 - Somebody That I used to Know
#2 - Call Me Maybe
#3 - We Are Young
#4 - Payphone
#5 - We Found Love
STIUTK is locked for #1, without any doubt.
It will be really close between CMM and WAY for #2. Depends on how well CMM holds and how long WAY hangs around. Could go either way.
Payphone will comfortably get #4 by moving ahead of WFL but will be far far behind CMM or WAY.
WFL should get #5, unless WA or Lights just keep gaining and gaining. Otherwise it is safe from all other songs that have reached their peaks and any new song won't have enough time to catch up to WFL.
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dlostfan
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Post by dlostfan on Jul 20, 2012 3:02:20 GMT -5
Stronger was #1 on so many charts and its so much lower on this chart. I hope by the end of the year its Top 5 Stronger has no chance at #5 (it will need to stay in Hot 100 charts for at least 10 more weeks for that). It could get #6 though, if it can stay for 5-6 more weeks. |
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icefire9
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Post by icefire9 on Jul 23, 2012 10:13:17 GMT -5
Prepare for Somebody I Used To Know jumping four (or maybe five!) spots next week. It should be #3 the week after. | Rank | Artist, Song | Points | Updated? | | 1 | Rihanna Featuring Calvin Harris, We Found Love | 2789 | | | 2 | Drake Featuring Lil Wayne, The Motto | 2757 | * | | 3 | Adele, Set Fire To The Rain | 2607 | | | 4 | Drake Featuring Rihanna, Take Care | 2548 | | | 5 | LMFAO, Sexy And I Know It | 2522 | | | 6 | Flo Rida, Good Feeling | 2501 | | | 7 | Kelly Clarkson, What Doesn't Kill You (Stronger) | 2472 | * | | 8 | LMFAO Featuring Lauren Bennett & GoonRock, Party Rock Anthem | 2461 | | | 9 | Gotye Featuring Kimbra, Somebody That I Used To Know | 2451 | ** | | 10 | Fun. Featuring Janelle Monae, We Are Young | 2449 | * | | 11 | The Wanted, Glad You Came | 2298 | * | | 12 | Snoop Dogg & Wiz Khalifa Featuring Bruno Mars, Young, Wild & Free | 2172 | | | 13 | Flo Rida Featuring Sia, Wild Ones | 2124 | * | | 14 | Maroon 5 Featuring Christina Aguilera, Moves Like Jagger | 2099 | | | 15 | Nicki Minaj, Starships | 2063 | * | | 16 | Train, Drive By | 2037 | * | | 17 | David Guetta Featuring Nicki Minaj, Turn Me On | 1965 | | | 18 | Carly Rae Jepsen, Call Me Maybe | 1927 | ** | | 19 | One Direction, What Makes You Beautiful | 1909 | * | | 20 | Bruno Mars, It Will Rain | 1908 | | | 21 | Katy Perry, Part Of Me | 1829 | * | | 22 | Jessie J, Domino | 1822 | | | 23 | Jay-Z & Kanye West, Ni**as In Paris | 1810 | | | 24 | Tyga, Rack City | 1758 | | | 25 | Calvin Harris, Feel So Close | 1714 | * | | 26 | Pitbull Featuring Chris Brown, International Love | 1710 | | | 27 | Adele, Someone Like You | 1677 | | | 28 | Jason Mraz, I Won't Give Up | 1628 | * | | 29 | Katy Perry, The One That Got Away | 1608 | | | 30 | Gavin DeGraw, Not Over You | 1555 | | | 31 | Gym Class Heroes Featuring Neon Hitch, Ass Back Home | 1554 | | | 32 | David Guetta Featuring Usher, Without You | 1494 | | | 33 | Coldplay, Paradise | 1477 | | | 34 | Justin Bieber, Boyfriend | 1455 | * | | 35 | Ellie Goulding, Lights | 1453 | ** | | 36 | Big Sean Featuring Nicki Minaj, Dance (A$$) | 1421 | | | 37 | Eric Church, Springsteen | 1385 | * | | 38 | Carrie Underwood, Good Girl | 1353 | | | 39 | Adele, Rumour Has It | 1349 | | | 40 | Adele, Rolling In The Deep | 1328 | | | 41 | J. Cole, Work Out | 1328 | | | 42 | Luke Bryan, Drunk On You | 1316 | * | | 43 | Karmin, Brokenhearted | 1293 | * | | 44 | Maroon 5 Featuring Wiz Khalifa, Payphone | 1279 | ** | | 45 | Usher, Climax | 1267 | | | 46 | Gym Class Heroes Featuring Adam Levine, Stereo Hearts | 1230 | | | 47 | Christina Perri, A Thousand Years | 1228 | | | 48 | Selena Gomez & The Scene, Love You Like A Love Song | 1189 | | | 49 | Rihanna Featuring Chris Brown, Birthday Cake | 1175 | | | 50 | Toby Keith, Red Solo Cup | 1151 | |
Top 10 Songs: | 55 | Rihanna, Where Have You Been | 1052 | ** | | 62 | Usher, Scream | 965 | ** | | 70 | David Guetta Featuring Sia, Titanium | 929 | ** | | 94 | Katy Perry, Wide Awake | 726 | ** | | 142 | Flo Rida, Whistle | 398 | ** | | 199 | P!nk, Blow Me (One Last Kiss) | 135 | ** |
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icefire9
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Post by icefire9 on Aug 1, 2012 11:19:52 GMT -5
| Rank | Artist, Song | Points | Updated? | | 1 | Rihanna Featuring Calvin Harris, We Found Love | 2789 | | | 2 | Drake Featuring Lil Wayne, The Motto | 2757 | | | 3 | Adele, Set Fire To The Rain | 2607 | | | 4 | Drake Featuring Rihanna, Take Care | 2548 | | | 5 | Gotye Featuring Kimbra, Somebody That I Used To Know | 2547 | ** | | 6 | Kelly Clarkson, What Doesn't Kill You (Stronger) | 2542 | * | | 7 | Fun. Featuring Janelle Monae, We Are Young | 2539 | * | | 8 | LMFAO, Sexy And I Know It | 2522 | | | 9 | Flo Rida, Good Feeling | 2501 | | | 10 | LMFAO Featuring Lauren Bennett & GoonRock, Party Rock Anthem | 2461 | | | 11 | The Wanted, Glad You Came | 2377 | * | | 12 | Flo Rida Featuring Sia, Wild Ones | 2207 | * | | 13 | Snoop Dogg & Wiz Khalifa Featuring Bruno Mars, Young, Wild & Free | 2172 | | | 14 | Nicki Minaj, Starships | 2149 | * | | 15 | Train, Drive By | 2112 | * | | 16 | Maroon 5 Featuring Christina Aguilera, Moves Like Jagger | 2099 | | | 17 | Carly Rae Jepsen, Call Me Maybe | 2027 | ** | | 18 | One Direction, What Makes You Beautiful | 1994 | * | | 19 | David Guetta Featuring Nicki Minaj, Turn Me On | 1965 | | | 20 | Bruno Mars, It Will Rain | 1908 | | | 21 | Katy Perry, Part Of Me | 1829 | | | 22 | Jessie J, Domino | 1822 | | | 23 | Jay-Z & Kanye West, Ni**as In Paris | 1810 | | | 24 | Calvin Harris, Feel So Close | 1776 | * | | 25 | Tyga, Rack City | 1758 | | | 26 | Pitbull Featuring Chris Brown, International Love | 1710 | | | 27 | Jason Mraz, I Won't Give Up | 1705 | * | | 28 | Adele, Someone Like You | 1677 | | | 29 | Katy Perry, The One That Got Away | 1608 | | | 30 | Gavin DeGraw, Not Over You | 1555 | | | 31 | Gym Class Heroes Featuring Neon Hitch, Ass Back Home | 1554 | | | 32 | Ellie Goulding, Lights | 1550 | ** | | 33 | Justin Bieber, Boyfriend | 1514 | * | | 34 | David Guetta Featuring Usher, Without You | 1494 | | | 35 | Coldplay, Paradise | 1477 | | | 36 | Eric Church, Springsteen | 1441 | * | | 37 | Big Sean Featuring Nicki Minaj, Dance (A$$) | 1421 | | | 38 | Luke Bryan, Drunk On You | 1388 | * | | 39 | Maroon 5 Featuring Wiz Khalifa, Payphone | 1378 | ** | | 40 | Carrie Underwood, Good Girl | 1353 | | | 41 | Adele, Rumour Has It | 1349 | | | 42 | Karmin, Brokenhearted | 1348 | * | | 43 | Adele, Rolling In The Deep | 1328 | | | 44 | J. Cole, Work Out | 1328 | | | 45 | Usher, Climax | 1267 | | | 46 | Kanye West, Big Sean, Pusha T, 2 Chainz, Mercy | 1231 | * | | 47 | Gym Class Heroes Featuring Adam Levine, Stereo Hearts | 1230 | | | 48 | Christina Perri, A Thousand Years | 1228 | | | 49 | Selena Gomez & The Scene, Love You Like A Love Song | 1189 | | | 50 | Rihanna Featuring Chris Brown, Birthday Cake | 1175 | |
Top 10 Songs: | 52 | Rihanna, Where Have You Been | 1146 | ** | | 58 | Usher, Scream | 1057 | ** | | 60 | David Guetta Featuring Sia, Titanium | 1022 | ** | | 84 | Katy Perry, Wide Awake | 824 | ** | | 133 | Flo Rida, Whistle | 493 | ** | | 177 | P!nk, Blow Me (One Last Kiss) | 226 | ** |
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Post by when the pawn... on Aug 1, 2012 13:10:20 GMT -5
So no more than 3-4 weeks until Gotye is #1 on this list.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 3, 2012 9:23:37 GMT -5
As of week 35 as per Billboard: Top Digital Songs 1. Somebody That I used to Know - 5.74 2. We Are Young - 5.27 3. Call Me Maybe - 4.49 4. Sexy and I Know It - 3.87 5. Payphone - 3.41 6. Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You) - 3.40 7. Starships - 3.28 8. Set Fire to the Rain - 3.26 9. What Makes You Beautiful - 3.03 10. Wild Ones - 3.01 11. Glad You Came - 2.96 12. We Found Love - 2.77 13. Boyfriend - 2.72 14. Good Feeling - 2.65 15. Young, Wild & Free - 2.59 16. Party Rock Anthem - 2.51 17. The Motto - 2.50 Top Radio Songs 1. We Found Love - 3.10 2. Set Fire to the Rain - 2.45 3. Good Feeling - 2.24 4. Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You) - 2.10 5. Somebody That I used to Know - 2.05 6. We Are Young - 2.01 7. It Will Rain - 1.93 8. Glad You Came - 1.92 9. Sexy and I Know It - 1.82 10. Moves Like Jagger - 1.78 11. Take Care - 1.66 12. The One That I Got Away - 1.60 13. The Motto - 1.58 14. Turn Me On - 1.50 15. Without You - 1.49 16. Wild Ones - 1.49 17. Starships - 1.49 Hot 100 1. Somebody That I used to Know 2. We Are Young 3. We Found Love 4. Set Fire to the Rain 5. Sexy and I Know It 6. Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You) 7. Call Me Maybe 8. Good Feeling 9. Glad You Came 10. Starships 11. Wild Ones 12. Payphone 13. It Will Rain 14. The Motto 15. What Makes You Beautiful 16. Moves Like Jagger 17. Party Rock Anthem Love it! What formula did you use for the H100? Airplay counts for more than sales now, so We Found Love might end up above Payphone with the new formula. |
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dlostfan
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Post by dlostfan on Aug 3, 2012 11:39:32 GMT -5
I analyzed all the figures we have got from Billboard till now and the rankings, and have reached this conclusion:
If a song has, say:
Sales: 200k
Airplay: 100M
Streaming: 800k
Then the points more likely are:
Sales: 200* 0.65 = 130
Airplay: 100 * 1 = 100
Streaming: 800 * 0.05 = 40
The absolute multiplier ranges for Sales and Streaming are 0.62-0.71 and 0.044-0.062, and it will keep getting more and more accurate as more data becomes available.
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icefire9
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Post by icefire9 on Aug 11, 2012 15:02:06 GMT -5
Somebody I Used to Know will pass We Found Love next week! | Rank | Artist, Song | Points | Updated? | | 1 | Rihanna Featuring Calvin Harris, We Found Love | 2789 | | | 2 | Drake Featuring Lil Wayne, The Motto | 2757 | | | 3 | Gotye Featuring Kimbra, Somebody That I Used To Know | 2737 | ** | | 4 | Fun. Featuring Janelle Monae, We Are Young | 2706 | * | | 5 | Kelly Clarkson, What Doesn't Kill You (Stronger) | 2669 | * | | 6 | Adele, Set Fire To The Rain | 2607 | | | 7 | Drake Featuring Rihanna, Take Care | 2548 | | | 8 | The Wanted, Glad You Came | 2524 | * | | 9 | LMFAO, Sexy And I Know It | 2522 | | | 10 | Flo Rida, Good Feeling | 2501 | | | 11 | LMFAO Featuring Lauren Bennett & GoonRock, Party Rock Anthem | 2461 | | | 12 | Flo Rida Featuring Sia, Wild Ones | 2363 | * | | 13 | Nicki Minaj, Starships | 2309 | * | | 14 | Train, Drive By | 2252 | * | | 15 | Carly Rae Jepsen, Call Me Maybe | 2227 | ** | | 16 | Snoop Dogg & Wiz Khalifa Featuring Bruno Mars, Young, Wild & Free | 2172 | | | 17 | One Direction, What Makes You Beautiful | 2159 | * | | 18 | Maroon 5 Featuring Christina Aguilera, Moves Like Jagger | 2099 | | | 19 | David Guetta Featuring Nicki Minaj, Turn Me On | 1965 | | | 20 | Bruno Mars, It Will Rain | 1908 | | | 21 | Calvin Harris, Feel So Close | 1903 | * | | 22 | Jason Mraz, I Won't Give Up | 1857 | * | | 23 | Katy Perry, Part Of Me | 1829 | | | 24 | Jessie J, Domino | 1822 | | | 25 | Jay-Z & Kanye West, Ni**as In Paris | 1810 | | | 26 | Tyga, Rack City | 1758 | | | 27 | Ellie Goulding, Lights | 1745 | ** | | 28 | Pitbull Featuring Chris Brown, International Love | 1710 | | | 29 | Adele, Someone Like You | 1677 | | | 30 | Justin Bieber, Boyfriend | 1618 | * | | 31 | Katy Perry, The One That Got Away | 1608 | | | 32 | Maroon 5 Featuring Wiz Khalifa, Payphone | 1572 | ** | | 33 | Gavin DeGraw, Not Over You | 1555 | | | 34 | Gym Class Heroes Featuring Neon Hitch, Ass Back Home | 1554 | | | 35 | Luke Bryan, Drunk On You | 1518 | * | | 36 | Eric Church, Springsteen | 1494 | | | 37 | David Guetta Featuring Usher, Without You | 1494 | | | 38 | Coldplay, Paradise | 1477 | | | 39 | Karmin, Brokenhearted | 1460 | * | | 40 | Big Sean Featuring Nicki Minaj, Dance (A$$) | 1421 | | | 41 | Kanye West, Big Sean, Pusha T, 2 Chainz, Mercy | 1403 | * | | 42 | Carrie Underwood, Good Girl | 1353 | | | 43 | Adele, Rumour Has It | 1349 | | | 44 | Rihanna, Where Have You Been | 1334 | ** | | 45 | Adele, Rolling In The Deep | 1328 | | | 46 | J. Cole, Work Out | 1328 | | | 47 | Usher, Climax | 1267 | | | 48 | Usher, Scream | 1238 | ** | | 49 | Gym Class Heroes Featuring Adam Levine, Stereo Hearts | 1230 | | | 50 | Christina Perri, A Thousand Years | 1228 | |
Top 10 Songs: | 52 | David Guetta Featuring Sia, Titanium | 1208 | ** | | 63 | Katy Perry, Wide Awake | 1020 | ** | | 109 | Flo Rida, Whistle | 688 | ** | | 150 | P!nk, Blow Me (One Last Kiss) | 408 | ** | | 176 | Phillip Phillips, Home | 267 | ** |
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Acid Eyes
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Post by Acid Eyes on Aug 11, 2012 15:51:00 GMT -5
I love how "The Motto" is looking like the ultimate sleeper hit, creeping into the top 2.
I realize it won't be nearly that high when the actual chart comes out in December, but it is likely to be much higher than it's initial peak would suggest.
YOLO :'(
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dlostfan
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Post by dlostfan on Aug 15, 2012 7:08:00 GMT -5
The Motto should rank #14-18 in year-end charts.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Aug 16, 2012 5:52:45 GMT -5
Yea, it's out of charts now so staying in top 10 (peaked #13 on weekly charts) is not likely.
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dlostfan
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Post by dlostfan on Aug 17, 2012 3:06:48 GMT -5
3 out of 4 quarters of 2012 are over.
As of week 39 as per Billboard:
Top Digital Songs (Sales in millions)
1. Somebody That I used to Know - 6.09
2. We Are Young - 5.47
3. Call Me Maybe - 5.16
4. Sexy and I Know It - 3.92
5. Payphone - 3.87
6. Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You) - 3.50
7. Starships - 3.50
8. Set Fire to the Rain - 3.26
9. What Makes You Beautiful - 3.24
10. Wild Ones - 3.19
11. Glad You Came - 3.09
12. Boyfriend - 2.88
13. We Found Love - 2.77
14. Good Feeling - 2.65
15. Young, Wild & Free - 2.59
16. Party Rock Anthem - 2.51
17. The Motto - 2.50
Top Radio Songs (Billion Audience impressions)
1. We Found Love - 3.10
2. Set Fire to the Rain - 2.45
3. Somebody That I used to Know - 2.44
4. Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You) - 2.26
5. Good Feeling - 2.24
6. We Are Young - 2.21
7. Glad You Came - 2.11
8. It Will Rain - 1.93
9. Sexy and I Know It - 1.82
10. Moves Like Jagger - 1.78
11. Payphone - 1.74
12. Starships - 1.69
13. Call Me Maybe - 1.68
14. Wild Ones - 1.68
15. Take Care - 1.66
16. The One That I Got Away - 1.60
17. The Motto - 1.58
Top On-Demand Songs (million streams, counted after the rule change)
1. Somebody That I used to Know - 22.8
2. We Are Young - 21.2
3. Call Me Maybe - 19.5
4. Starships - 13.7
5. Payphone - 13.4
6. What Makes You Beautiful - 13.0
7. Boyfriend - 11.9
8. Glad You Came - 11.6
9. Wild Ones - 10.6
10. The Motto - 9.1
Hot 100
1. Somebody That I used to Know
2. We Are Young
3. Call Me Maybe
4. We Found Love
5. Sexy and I Know It
6. Set Fire to the Rain
7. Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You)
8. Glad You Came
9. Starships
10. Good Feeling
11. Wild Ones
12. Payphone
13. What Makes You Beautiful
14. The Motto
15. It Will Rain
16. Moves Like Jagger
17. Party Rock Anthem
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dilek85
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Post by dilek85 on Aug 17, 2012 3:23:22 GMT -5
3 out of 4 quarters of 2012 are over. As of week 39 as per Billboard: Top Digital Songs (Sales in millions) 1. Somebody That I used to Know - 6.09 2. We Are Young - 5.47 3. Call Me Maybe - 5.16 4. Sexy and I Know It - 3.92 5. Payphone - 3.87 6. Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You) - 3.50 7. Starships - 3.50 8. Set Fire to the Rain - 3.26 9. What Makes You Beautiful - 3.24 10. Wild Ones - 3.19 11. Glad You Came - 3.09 12. Boyfriend - 2.88 13. We Found Love - 2.77 14. Good Feeling - 2.65 15. Young, Wild & Free - 2.59 16. Party Rock Anthem - 2.51 17. The Motto - 2.50 Top Radio Songs (Billion Audience impressions) 1. We Found Love - 3.10 2. Set Fire to the Rain - 2.45 3. Somebody That I used to Know - 2.44 4. Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You) - 2.26 5. Good Feeling - 2.24 6. We Are Young - 2.21 7. Glad You Came - 2.11 8. It Will Rain - 1.93 9. Sexy and I Know It - 1.82 10. Moves Like Jagger - 1.78 11. Payphone - 1.74 12. Starships - 1.69 13. Call Me Maybe - 1.68 14. Wild Ones - 1.68 15. Take Care - 1.66 16. The One That I Got Away - 1.60 17. The Motto - 1.58 Top On-Demand Songs (million streams, counted after the rule change) 1. Somebody That I used to Know - 22.8 2. We Are Young - 21.2 3. Call Me Maybe - 19.5 4. Starships - 13.7 5. Payphone - 13.4 6. What Makes You Beautiful - 13.0 7. Boyfriend - 11.9 8. Glad You Came - 11.6 9. Wild Ones - 10.6 10. The Motto - 9.1 Hot 100 1. Somebody That I used to Know 2. We Are Young 3. Call Me Maybe 4. We Found Love 5. Sexy and I Know It 6. Set Fire to the Rain 7. Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You) 8. Glad You Came 9. Starships 10. Good Feeling 11. Wild Ones 12. Payphone 13. What Makes You Beautiful 14. The Motto 15. It Will Rain 16. Moves Like Jagger 17. Party Rock Anthem does anyone have such statistics from same time last year? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 17, 2012 10:18:40 GMT -5
Do Where Have You Been and Titanium have a chance at top 25? I'd love if it was included in this years Dj Earworm remix. Or even Top 30, since he won't include songs like We Found Love, Sexy & I Know It, Moves Like Jagger or Someone Like You.
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Post by Rocky on Aug 17, 2012 12:23:32 GMT -5
Where Have You Been? - not likely
Titanium? - possibly yes, I see it making #27-30 and he will use it instead of WFL, SAIKI, MLJ, SLY or PRA.
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icefire9
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Post by icefire9 on Aug 17, 2012 12:47:52 GMT -5
If I had to make a prediction, I would say Where Have You Been and Titanium will both end up in the top 30 or at least not too far below it.
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Juanca
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Post by Juanca on Aug 17, 2012 14:06:28 GMT -5
I wonder how The Motto is #2 tbh. It doesn't seem that big of a hit, and looking at individual charts Wild Ones passes it, as well as the newer hits, and I'd think that SFTTR should also pass it.
Good to see Kelly holding on and winning over the Wanted for example :)
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icefire9
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Post by icefire9 on Aug 17, 2012 14:37:44 GMT -5
The inverse point system heavily favors songs with longevity.
Here's why, look at the airplay chart.
1 +1 ELLIE GOULDING Lights 162.272
20 +1 KELLY CLARKSON Stronger (What Doesn... 58.300
Stronger, being #20 in airplay has about a third of the AI of the #1 song. In most circumstances, sales and streamng follow similar patterns. However, the #20 song on the hot 100 will get 81 points as opposed to 100 points for the #1 song.
In other words, songs in a certain range of the chart get more points per sale/stream/AI than the songs at the top of the chart.
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dlostfan
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Post by dlostfan on Aug 17, 2012 18:39:47 GMT -5
The inverse point system heavily favors songs with longevity. Here's why, look at the airplay chart. 1 +1 ELLIE GOULDING Lights 162.272 20 +1 KELLY CLARKSON Stronger (What Doesn... 58.300 Stronger, being #20 in airplay has about a third of the AI of the #1 song. In most circumstances, sales and streamng follow similar patterns. However, the #20 song on the hot 100 will get 81 points as opposed to 100 points for the #1 song. In other words, songs in a certain range of the chart get more points per sale/stream/AI than the songs at the top of the chart. The inverse point system you are using can be made more accurate if you follow a different point system. For example points = 100 / rank^0.4 Could you prepare a chart based on that. It will just take some tweaking in formulas if you are using excel. |
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dlostfan
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Post by dlostfan on Aug 17, 2012 18:43:10 GMT -5
Do Where Have You Been and Titanium have a chance at top 25? I'd love if it was included in this years Dj Earworm remix. Or even Top 30, since he won't include songs like We Found Love, Sexy & I Know It, Moves Like Jagger or Someone Like You.WHYB should make Top-30 at least. It has had over 1.3 billion audience impressions so far and is still going strong on radio. Titanium could do it, will have to see how it holds first. |
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icefire9
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Joined: November 2011
Posts: 2,071
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Post by icefire9 on Aug 17, 2012 21:23:58 GMT -5
I'd like to do something like that in the future, though I won't have it ready in the near term. It'd be a job finding which formula would be most accurate.
The inverse point system is useful as is though because Billboard uses it for their all time charts and their decade end charts when changes in chart methodology happen mid-decade. The streaming switch over may be enough to warrant that this decade.
I've already developed a wieghting system that I'm using the 2011 chart to test out. It gave me the top 10 almost exactly, the only outlier being Moves Like Jagger at #11. While it didn't predict the exact corder of the top 25, only one song that was in the top 25 my prediction was out of the official top 25. (If I Die Young, which is in the same boat as the Motto, replaced Someone Like You)
Here is what I'm using right now (subject to change)
#10 is given 10 extra points.
#9 is given 15 extra points
etc. onward to #2 with 50 extra points.
#1 is given 110 extra points.
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icefire9
2x Platinum Member
Joined: November 2011
Posts: 2,071
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Post by icefire9 on Aug 24, 2012 15:58:12 GMT -5
There are only 12 weeks left in the chart year! I'll post a weighted chart soon (either later today or tommorow). In the meantime, I'll just show the Top 10. 1.Gotye Featuring Kimbra, Somebody That I Used To Know 2. Fun. Featuring Janelle Monae, We Are Young 3. Rihanna Featuring Calvin Harris, We Found Love 4. Carly Rae Jepsen, Call Me Maybe 5. Kelly Clarkson, Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You) 6. Adele, Set Fire To The Rain 7. LMFAO, Sexy And I Know It 8. The Wanted, Glad You Came 9. Flo Rida, Good Feeling 10. Nicki Minaj, Starships | Rank | Artist, Song | Points | Updated? | | 1 | Gotye Featuring Kimbra, Somebody That I Used To Know | 2922 | * | | 2 | Fun. Featuring Janelle Monae, We Are Young | 2857 | * | | 3 | Rihanna Featuring Calvin Harris, We Found Love | 2789 | | | 4 | Kelly Clarkson, What Doesn't Kill You (Stronger) | 2786 | * | | 5 | Drake Featuring Lil Wayne, The Motto | 2757 | | | 6 | The Wanted, Glad You Came | 2649 | * | | 7 | Adele, Set Fire To The Rain | 2607 | | | 8 | Drake Featuring Rihanna, Take Care | 2548 | | | 9 | LMFAO, Sexy And I Know It | 2522 | | | 10 | Flo Rida Featuring Sia, Wild Ones | 2502 | * | | 11 | Flo Rida, Good Feeling | 2501 | | | 12 | LMFAO Featuring Lauren Bennett & GoonRock, Party Rock Anthem | 2461 | | | 13 | Nicki Minaj, Starships | 2456 | * | | 14 | Carly Rae Jepsen, Call Me Maybe | 2422 | ** | | 15 | Train, Drive By | 2379 | * | | 16 | One Direction, What Makes You Beautiful | 2310 | * | | 17 | Snoop Dogg & Wiz Khalifa Featuring Bruno Mars, Young, Wild & Free | 2172 | | | 18 | Maroon 5 Featuring Christina Aguilera, Moves Like Jagger | 2099 | | | 19 | Jason Mraz, I Won't Give Up | 2007 | * | | 20 | David Guetta Featuring Nicki Minaj, Turn Me On | 1965 | | | 21 | Ellie Goulding, Lights | 1942 | ** | | 22 | Bruno Mars, It Will Rain | 1908 | | | 23 | Calvin Harris, Feel So Close | 1903 | | | 24 | Katy Perry, Part Of Me | 1829 | | | 25 | Jessie J, Domino | 1822 | | | 26 | Jay-Z & Kanye West, Ni**as In Paris | 1810 | | | 27 | Maroon 5 Featuring Wiz Khalifa, Payphone | 1762 | ** | | 28 | Tyga, Rack City | 1758 | | | 29 | Pitbull Featuring Chris Brown, International Love | 1710 | | | 30 | Adele, Someone Like You | 1677 | | | 31 | Justin Bieber, Boyfriend | 1659 | | | 32 | Katy Perry, The One That Got Away | 1608 | | | 33 | Luke Bryan, Drunk On You | 1571 | | | 34 | Kanye West, Big Sean, Pusha T, 2 Chainz, Mercy | 1566 | * | | 35 | Gavin DeGraw, Not Over You | 1555 | | | 36 | Gym Class Heroes Featuring Neon Hitch, Ass Back Home | 1554 | | | 37 | Rihanna, Where Have You Been | 1511 | * | | 38 | Eric Church, Springsteen | 1494 | | | 39 | David Guetta Featuring Usher, Without You | 1494 | | | 40 | Coldplay, Paradise | 1477 | | | 41 | Karmin, Brokenhearted | 1460 | | | 42 | Big Sean Featuring Nicki Minaj, Dance (A$$) | 1421 | | | 43 | Usher, Scream | 1398 | * | | 44 | Neon Trees, Everybody Talks | 1396 | * | | 45 | David Guetta Featuring Sia, Titanium | 1393 | ** | | 46 | Carrie Underwood, Good Girl | 1353 | | | 47 | Adele, Rumour Has It | 1349 | | | 48 | Adele, Rolling In The Deep | 1328 | | | 49 | J. Cole, Work Out | 1328 | | | 50 | Fun., Some Nights | 1311 | ** |
Top 10 Songs: | 55 | Katy Perry, Wide Awake | 1213 | ** | | 84 | Flo Rida, Whistle | 887 | ** | | 134 | Justin Bieber Featuring Big Sean, As Long as You Love Me | 537 | ** | | 148 | Maroon 5, One More Night | 446 | ** | | 222 | Taylor Swift, We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together | 129 | ** |
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Post by josh on Aug 24, 2012 17:20:26 GMT -5
Katy went from such a dominating year to such a mediocre year on the year end chart... she's not even going to have one top 10..
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