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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2018 18:59:03 GMT -5
The lack of traction D&S are getting right now is surprising, especially considering the sales for Tequila are very good. Some interesting intrigue with label mates, as Chris & Luke are same label, Brett & DD are both Warner Music, but different parts of the super group. My only theory is that early local testing for "Tequila" isn't the best hence the slow start for Dan + Shay. I'm definitely shocked Dan + Shay are going so slow though. I figured they'd be knocking on the Top 30, or at least ahead of the latest singles from Lauren Alaina and Justin Moore. As it is they aren't doing bad, but they're going slower than I would've expected.
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seak05
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Post by seak05 on Mar 4, 2018 21:15:13 GMT -5
Another interesting thing to watch, can Darius hold off Blake/Kane long enough to get a top 10 peak on BB when Scott falls out?
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2018 21:22:19 GMT -5
Another interesting thing to watch, can Darius hold off Blake/Kane long enough to get a top 10 peak on BB when Scott falls out? I think Darius Rucker will get a Top 10 regardless. The question does he have enough left to make it all the way to #1. As of right now I'd say no, but things could change.
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CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on Mar 5, 2018 17:31:51 GMT -5
raylatch98 After reading this weeks predictions is the only songs you see debuting Jake Owen and Russell Dickerson? The others look like they maybe re-entries.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2018 17:44:12 GMT -5
raylatch98 After reading this weeks predictions is the only songs you see debuting Jake Owen and Russell Dickerson? The others look like they maybe re-entries. Oh right Chris Young and Michael Tyler are re-entries. My bad.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2018 21:39:13 GMT -5
Ok so this week's chart is in. Drew Baldridge went recurrent along with Russell Dickerson and Kelsea Ballerini while Aaron Watson fell out. Russell Dickerson and Kelsea Ballerini replaced themselves while Jake Owen had his huge debut and Michael Tyler re-entered.
Heading into next week Old Dominion is the only song I can realistically see going recurrent next week with Chris Young re-entering. Keith Urban should spend a final week next week (seriously Billboard "Female" shouldn't have a bullet). But I literally can't find another song that would give up. Granger Smith had an add in Aircheck, Lee Brice and Brantley Gilbert seem to have gained well enough to stay aroun, and while songs from Dustin Lynch and Brandon Lay lost their bullet this week, both recieved adds this week and are young enough to afford a second week to lose a bullet.
The only things that will be intriguing for me at least is how far Jake Owen falls from his iHeartMedia debut, how much Cole Swindell gains back after his hangover week, how much farther Keith Urban falls, and whether or not Thomas Rhett gets a second week at #1.
This week looks tepid after the past month has been nothing but songs leaving left and right. Looks like the charts are starting to shape back to slow and steady.
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seak05
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Post by seak05 on Mar 5, 2018 21:57:48 GMT -5
One thing to watch 4 big hits, well 3 hits + Blake, are lining up at radio right now with Bebe, Jason. Kane's Heaven, and Blake all potentially in a row. It will be interesting to see how that shakes out, and if/who will get overtaken between Luke and Jason.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2018 22:06:50 GMT -5
One thing to watch 4 big hits, well 3 hits + Blake, are lining up at radio right now with Bebe, Jason. Kane's Heaven, and Blake all potentially in a row. It will be interesting to see how that shakes out, and if/who will get overtaken between Luke and Jason. I think they are all lining up pretty well and in a just world they each spend multiple weeks at #1. I think by the end of the month we'll have a clearer picture if you ask me. As it is, I can't decipher who will hit #1 in what order. I do hope Bebe Rexha and Jason Aldean can manage to block Jordan Davis and High Valley from the top of the chart. Just like I'm hoping Luke Bryan can block Brett Eldredge and or Devin Dawson.
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CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on Mar 11, 2018 9:08:32 GMT -5
I think Billboard is a week behind on their dates. It says Thomas was #1 on the March 10 chart when he should be #1 on the March 17 chart. Unless they’ve changed something tomorrow’s chart should be dated March 24.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Mar 11, 2018 12:52:32 GMT -5
I think Billboard is a week behind on their dates. It says Thomas was #1 on the March 10 chart when he should be #1 on the March 17 chart. Unless they’ve changed something tomorrow’s chart should be dated March 24. I saw that myself. When they update the website on Tuesday, the right date will show.
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CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on Mar 11, 2018 13:20:46 GMT -5
I think Billboard is a week behind on their dates. It says Thomas was #1 on the March 10 chart when he should be #1 on the March 17 chart. Unless they’ve changed something tomorrow’s chart should be dated March 24. I saw that myself. When they update the website on Tuesday, the right date will show. They had a January 3 and January 6 chart for some reason?
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Mar 11, 2018 13:36:15 GMT -5
I saw that myself. When they update the website on Tuesday, the right date will show. They had a January 3 and January 6 chart for some reason? That's when Billboard decided to date their magazines different, I believe.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2018 15:18:43 GMT -5
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60
1. Thomas Rhett “Marry Me” 2. Chris Stapleton “Broken Halos” 3. Luke Bryan “Most People Are Good” 4-7. Scotty McCreery “Five More Minutes” 4-7. Devin Dawson “All On Me” 4-7. Brett Eldredge “The Long Way” 4-7. Jordan Davis “Singles You Up” 8-9. High Valley “She's With Me” 8-9. Bebe Rexha & Florida Georgia Line “Meant to Be” 10. Jason Aldean “You Make It Easy” 11. Darius Rucker “For The First Time” 12. Kane Brown “Heaven” 13-14. Blake Shelton “I Lived It” 13-14. Granger Smith “Happens Like That” 15-16. Dierks Bentley “Woman Amen” 15-16. David Lee Murphy & Kenny Chesney “Everything's Gonna Be Alright” 17. Lee Brice “Boy” 18. Luke Combs “One Number Away” 19. Brantley Gilbert “The Ones That Like Me” 20. Morgan Wallen featuring Florida Georgia Line “Up Down” 21-23 Michael Ray “Get To You” 21-23. Chris Lane & Tori Kelly “Take Back Home Girl” 21-23. Morgan Evans “Kiss Somebody” 24-25 Lindsay Ell “Criminal” 24-25. Jon Pardi “She Ain't In It” 26-27. Dylan Scott “Hooked” 26-27. Lady Antebellum “Heart Break” 28-30. Chase Rice “Three Chords and The Truth” 28-30. Justin Moore “Kinda Don't Care” 28-30. Jake Owen “I Was Jack (You Were Diane)” 31-32. Lauren Alaina “Doin Fine” 31-32. Cole Swindell “Break Up In The End” 33. Ashley McBryde “A Little Dive Bar In Dahlonega” 34. Dan + Shay “Tequila” 35-37. Chris Janson “Drunk Girl” 35-37. Brett Young "Mercy" 35-37. Runaway June “Wild West” 38-41. Jerrod Niemann “I Got This” 38-41. Keith Urban “Female 38-41. Carly Pearce “Hide The Wine” 38-41. Dustin Lynch “I'd Be Jealous Too” 42. Brothers Osborne “Shoot Me Straight” 43-46. Cam “Diane” 43-46. Kip Moore “Last Shot” 43-46. Maren Morris “Rich” 43-46. Sugarland “Still The Same” 47-48. Brandon Lay “Speakers, Bleachers, and Preachers” 47-48. LoCash “Don't Get Better Than That” 49. LANco “Born To Love You” 50-53. Danielle Bradbery “Worth It” 53 53. Jimmie Allen “Best Shot” 50-53. Russell Dickerson “Blue Tacoma” 50-53. Chris Young “Hangin On” (Re-Entry!) 54-55. Kelsea Ballerini “I Hate Love Songs” 54-55. Jillian Jacqueline “Reasons” 56. Michael Tyler “Hey Mama” 57-58. Sir Rosevelt “Something Bout You” 57-58. Kid Rock “American Rock N Roll” 59. Aaron Watson “Run Wild Horses” (Re-Entry!) 60. James Barker Band “Chills”
New and Active Trent Harmon “You Got Em All” Eric Paslay “Young Forever” Walker McGuire “Lost” Stephanie Quayle “Selfish” Thomas Rhett “Sixteen” Old Dominion “Hotel Key”
Going Recurrent or Drop outs Old Dominion “Written In The Sand” Casey Donahew “Country Song”
Commentary/Highlights Battle for the Top between Chris Stapleton and Thomas Rhett. Thomas Rhett should get a second week more than likely.
Brett Eldredge appears to have slowed down, probably to help Devin Dawson get a boost up. How successful that is remains to be determined though as Jordan Davis is going in fast on Brett Eldredge and could easily pass this week. Also, Luke Bryan is still probably going to go for multiple weeks it seems like.
Bebe Rexha in particular is gaining fast and will probably wind up as the greatest gainer. She is closing the gap between her and High Valley, really fast, as next week I think Bebe Rexha will pass the Canadian duo.
Granger Smith “Happens Like That” is getting lost in the shuffle with all the bigger heavier hitters around it. Lee Brice is also not looking the best. I don't feel good about either Granger Smith or Lee Brice’s chances at the Top 10. Luke Combs enters the Top 20 this week while also passing Morgan Wallen/FGL and Brantley Gilbert.
Morgan Evans is seeing solid gains this week as “Kiss Somebody” and should move closer to the Top 20 and potentially pass Chris Lane/Tori Kelly and Michael Ray potentially.
Michael Ray is looking rather weak with “Get To You”. Lindsay Ell and Jon Pardi continue to gain slow for another week with their latest singles. Both are doing okay but nothing spectacular. Funny thing is that both should finish neck and neck.
Lady Antebellum is starting to really get some good footing as “Heart Break” is gaining solid, since hitting the Top 30 last week. Dylan Scott as well with “Hooked” as he will probably end up in the Top 30 this week and move up either 4 or 5 spots.
Runaway June has done really well this week as the trio is looking to have a strong move in the Top 40 with “Wild West”. Carly Pearce should also enter the Top 40 as she has caused a little ruckus with “Hide The Wine”.
Kip Moore and Cam, continue to build up more audience as both remain neck and neck with each other, nothing special but they are doing ok. Kip Moore a little better than Cam.
LoCash is also seeing a good week. Maren Morris is the greatest gainer in her section of the chart but I still feel like it is an underwhelming start for “Rich”, regardless she'll be out of #50 after 3 weeks at #50.
Chris Young will re-enter with “Hangin On”, as Russell Dickerson and to a lesser extent Kelsea Ballerini look to cause a lot of the songs in the 50s to take a step back this week.
Songs I see leaving soon Scotty McCreery “Five More Minutes” Granger Smith “Happens Like That” Keith Urban “Female”
On the bubble Brantley Gilbert “The Ones That Like Me” Lee Brice “Boy” Dustin Lynch “I'd Be Jealous Too” Casey Donahew “Country Song” Next 5 songs I see debuting or returning Trent Harmon “You Got Em All” Walker McGuire “Lost” Stephanie Quayle “Selfish” Thomas Rhett “Sixteen” Old Dominion “Hotel Key”
Closing Thoughts Boring week as the charts continue to stabilize and we get back to songs moving at a snail pace in terms of positions with a few exceptions. Next week Scotty McCreery and Keith Urban will go recurrent. Besides that I have nothing else that will probably leave.
Bye
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CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on Mar 11, 2018 17:57:01 GMT -5
Old Dominion needs to just go ahead and announce “Hotel Key” as the next single already. They’ve been playing it at most of their live appearances and I believe the reason it’s getting spins is from The Highway playing it.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2018 18:01:37 GMT -5
Old Dominion needs to just go ahead and announce “Hotel Key” as the next single already. They’ve been playing it at most of their live appearances and I believe the reason it’s getting spins is from The Highway playing it. We will probably see an announcement either tomorrow in Country Aircheck or next week. The announcement has to be soon though, rest assured.
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Post by Naos on Mar 11, 2018 19:43:17 GMT -5
Lol, so many artists struggling with singles, and we get that one damn Thomas Rhett album track that keeps coming back.
That aside, these look pretty accurate. Could Rhett and Stapleton both get multiple weeks at #1, or was it only going to be one or the other? Either way, things are looking pretty good for country radio. Aside from that Bebe Rexha pop song that's probably going to be #1.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2018 20:50:04 GMT -5
Lol, so many artists struggling with singles, and we get that one damn Thomas Rhett album track that keeps coming back. That aside, these look pretty accurate. Could Rhett and Stapleton both get multiple weeks at #1, or was it only going to be one or the other? Either way, things are looking pretty good for country radio. Aside from that Bebe Rexha pop song that's probably going to be #1. No one's really struggling this week that much imo. Some songs are going slower than others. But besides Scotty McCreery and Keith Urban no one else on the chart should lose their bullet this week. This upcoming week is where things get intresting, that's for sure. Besides Thomas Rhett no one on the chart will be in freefall as both of this past weeks freefallers Scotty McCreery and Keith Urban are gonna be off the chart. What's interesting to me is that all of these songs we saw get taken out during February or went recurrent after hitting the Top (Easton Corbin, Walker Hayes, Midland, Keith Urban, Tim & Faith, Little Big Town, Chase Bryant, Drew Baldridge, Kelsea Ballerini, Old Dominion and Chris Young). All of these songs are at such low airplay levels now that these songs shedding spins won't make a difference since there isn't that many spins left for some of them to shed. Then when you add in the slow fall of Scotty McCreery and expected slow fall of Thomas Rhett this next week, there won't be many spins being transferred over to songs being promoted. I'm thinking for any song that isn't Top 20, this next week will be slow gains or possibly losing a small amount of audience, outside of the fresh new singles from Cole Swindell, Brett Young, Kelsea Ballerini, and to a lesser extent Chris Young and Russell Dickerson since they are brand new songs for radio and all of them have a lot of momentum as we speak. For the older/other songs in the #21 spot and below (the latest singles from Lauren Alaina, Michael Ray, Chase Rice come to mind especially) this upcoming week and I would say the following week are crucial to keep gaining at a decent clip, because anytime a song spends a couple of weeks just struggling especially below the Top 20, it's never good, and there's the risk with struggling for weeks that the label may just be like "It's not worth it anymore!". The older songs like a Lauren Alaina, Chase Rice, and Michael Ray are at an increased risk because of the age factor in their songs. We nearly saw this play out with Dustin Lynch during the housecleaning a few weeks ago. He was very close to going recurrent on Mediabase and the moment you go recurrent on Mediabase, game over, you are done, gone, bye. He lucked out. He still isn't in a good position but there's some upside for his latest. Other artists like Little Big Town didn't luck out. The label fought tooth and nail to keep LBT on the chart with their last single but it did not work. This upcoming month where songs going recurrent are gonna be sparse will be telling for a lot of these songs that are at, above or near 20+ weeks. Sorry for the long post, I kinda went on a tangent.
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Post by Naos on Mar 11, 2018 21:30:48 GMT -5
No worries. I wasn't referring to this week, I mean as a whole. You had Little Big Town with that huge hit that was "Better Man" and they've struggled ever since. Dustin Lynch like you said isn't doing so hot. And I'm sure some others as well.
Do other album tracks ever make country airplay without official promotion? Recently, I mean.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2018 21:47:37 GMT -5
No worries. I wasn't referring to this week, I mean as a whole. You had Little Big Town with that huge hit that was "Better Man" and they've struggled ever since. Dustin Lynch like you said isn't doing so hot. And I'm sure some others as well. Do other album tracks ever make country airplay without official promotion? Recently, I mean. Not usually. Album tracks tend to only make the chart if the artist is an A-lister and it's also usually only one maybe 2 stations that play that song so it's a pretty rare condition. "Sixteen" making the chart is the last one that comes to mind. I'm struggling to think of another one, I think Chris Stapleton had "Tennessee Whiskey" chart right after he had his huge breakout. But it was never a single. I do expect Little Big Town to bounce back with whatever their lead single is for their next album. LBT just destroyed their last album era by releasing "Happy People" as the followup to "Better Man", where as any other song would've been so much better.
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seak05
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Post by seak05 on Mar 11, 2018 22:36:46 GMT -5
Once Scotty goes recurrent charts might hit a brick wall for a bit. Really need the Devin/Brett/High Valley trio to give up, but I don't see that happening soon.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2018 22:42:13 GMT -5
Once Scotty goes recurrent charts might hit a brick wall for a bit. Really need the Devin/Brett/High Valley trio to give up, but I don't see that happening soon. Brett Eldredge is co-hosting CCUSA the week after Chris Stapleton so Brett Eldredge shouldn't last long. Also it's clear that Devin Dawson is the weak link in the Top 10 so he will probably let go within the next couple of weeks especially since the callout is horrible. As for High Valley, I think they'll stick around for a little bit longer but with Bebe Rexha and Jason Aldean about to pass I am about 100% sure that High Valley won't hit #1 and Top 5 might not happen. I'm looking at Granger Smith as the next song that needs to gtfo.
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jhomes87
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Post by jhomes87 on Mar 11, 2018 23:45:37 GMT -5
Keith Urban obviously didn't have a bullet on the most recent chart, so tomorrow's chart will be his last week. I know the BCU showed "Female" with a bullet but that was obviously an error. A song can't have a bullet if it loses 14.6 million in audience, lol. The BDS website showed it correctly. So tomorrow's chart will be the last week for "Female" and it will go recurrent a week from tomorrow.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2018 15:31:02 GMT -5
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60
1. Chris Stapleton “Broken Halos” 2-3. Luke Bryan “Most People Are Good” 2-3. Thomas Rhett “Marry Me” 4. Devin Dawson “All On Me” 5. Brett Eldredge “The Long Way” 6. Jordan Davis “Singles You Up” 7. Bebe Rexha & Florida Georgia Line “Meant to Be” 8. High Valley “She's With Me” 9. Jason Aldean “You Make It Easy” 10. Darius Rucker “For The First Time” 11. Kane Brown “Heaven” 12. Blake Shelton “I Lived It” 13. Granger Smith “Happens Like That” 14-15. Dierks Bentley “Woman Amen” 14-15. David Lee Murphy & Kenny Chesney “Everything's Gonna Be Alright” 16. Lee Brice “Boy” 17. Luke Combs “One Number Away” 18-19. Brantley Gilbert “The Ones That Like Me” 18-19. Morgan Wallen featuring Florida Georgia Line “Up Down” 20. Chris Lane & Tori Kelly “Take Back Home Girl” 21-22. Michael Ray “Get To You” 21-22. Jake Owen “I Was Jack (You Were Diane)” 23. Morgan Evans “Kiss Somebody” 24. Jon Pardi “She Ain't In It” 25. Lindsay Ell “Criminal” 26. Dylan Scott “Hooked” 27. Lady Antebellum “Heart Break” 28-29. Chase Rice “Three Chords and The Truth” 28-29. Justin Moore “Kinda Don't Care” 30-31. Lauren Alaina “Doin Fine” 30-31. Cole Swindell “Break Up In The End” 32. Ashley McBryde “A Little Dive Bar In Dahlonega” 33. Dan + Shay “Tequila” 34-35. Brett Young “Mercy” 34-35. Chris Janson “Drunk Girl” 36. Carly Pearce “Hide The Wine” 37-38. Runaway June “Wild West” 37-38. Dustin Lynch “I'd Be Jealous Too” 39. Brothers Osborne “Shoot Me Straight” 40. Jerrod Niemann “I Got This” 41. Maren Morris “Rich” 42. Kip Moore “Last Shot” 43-45. Cam “Diane” (last week?) 43-45. LANco “Born To Love You” 43-45. Brandon Lay “Speakers, Bleachers, and Preachers” 46-49. Sugarland “Still The Same” 46-49. LoCash “Don't Get Better Than That” 46-49. Jimmie Allen “Best Shot” 46-49. Chris Young “Hangin On” 50-51. Russell Dickerson “Blue Tacoma” 50-51. Kelsea Ballerini “I Hate Love Songs” 52. Danielle Bradbery “Worth It” 53-57. Eric Paslay “Young Forever” 53-57. Casey Donahew “Country Song” 53-57. Jillian Jacqueline “Reasons” 53-57. Trent Harmon “You Got Em All” (New!) 53-57. Michael Tyler “Hey Mama” (Re-Entry!) 58. Aaron Watson “Run Wild Horses” (Re-Entry!) 59-60. Kid Rock “American Rock N Roll” 59-60. Old Dominion “Hotel Key” (New!)
New and Active Walker McGuire “Lost” Josh Gracin “Nothin Like Us” Travis Denning “David Ashley Parker From Powder Springs” Kacey Musgraves “Butterflies” Brown & Gray “Top Down” Mitchell Tenpenny “Drunk Me”
Going Recurrent or Drop outs Scotty McCreery “Five More Minutes” Peak: #1 (45% sure this song will go recurrent, if not he will be in between High Valley and Jason Aldean at #9) Keith Urban “Female” Peak: #12 Sir Rosevelt “Something Bout You” Peak:#54 James Barker Band “Chills” Peak: #56
Commentary/Highlights Chris Stapleton earns his first #1 as a solo artist with “Broken Halos”. Luke Bryan is very strong, and is the front-runner for greatest gainer this week with “Most People Are Good” . Bebe Rexha/FGL has had another great week and looks to pass High Valley and could do some damage when it comes to the trio of Jordan Davis, Brett Eldredge, and Devin Dawson. Speaking of Jordan Davis, “Singles You Up” is also holding its own and while the sales are not quite as great as “Meant to Be” or “You Make It Easy”, “Singles You Up” has really been turning it around in the sales department, and it seems like and radio is taking notice. Brett Eldredge and High Valley hang in there, but I am still not feeling good about their #1 prospects. Devin Dawson is just trying to keep up but besides High Valley, Devin Dawson is the weakest in the Top 10 and his #1 chances are very slim to well none.
High Valley have really turned into the weak link for the Top 10 it seems like. Brett Eldredge is struggling for #1 prospects due to Luke Bryan, Jordan Davis, and Bebe Rexha all being in the mix as well. Kane Brown is the strongest force in the teens as he is approaching his second Top 10 with “Heaven” and will be next in line for the Top 10. Kane Brown is really connecting really well as he also has a very high selling single on his hands with “Heaven”. Blake Shelton is the clear second in command when it comes to the teens right now and second in line for the Top 10, Blake Shelton is still doing great and should probably hit #1, just Kane Brown is out gaining him really well.
Dierks Bentley is the third wheel when it comes to the teens. However that isn't a bad thing as “Woman Amen” is in a terrific spot in the charts, as Dierks Bentley has a lot of space between Blake Shelton/Kane Brown and himself while also having no one behind him really posing as a threat outside of maybe Luke Combs? The one concern is the lackluster early callout scores, but I feel like radio has bigger fish to fry than Dierks Bentley. Luke Combs entered the Top 20 last week and this week it appears “One Number Away” is trying to make a move on getting close to the Top 15 this week but will have to settle for #16.
Brantley Gilbert, Granger Smith, and Lee Brice continue to still crawl as all 3 have their Top 10 prospects diminish as each week goes by. Brantley Gilbert and Granger Smith especially look weaker and weak and are struggling to stay afloat it seems like. Chris Lane looks to pick up his third Top 20 with “Take Back Home Girl” and his duet partner Tori Kelly will pick up her very first. Jake Owen is bouncing back strong from his iHeartMedia hangover this week and could contend for the Top 20 this week, but looks to fall just short. Michael Ray continues to be a really weak link in the Top 30 as “Get To You” is on fumes it seems.
Chase Rice and shockingly Morgan Evans are not having great weeks with their latest singles. With Chase Rice it makes sense since the sales suck. With Morgan Evans I'm stumped. Since hitting the Top 30 or just around it, Justin Moore has kind of had the fuse lit for his latest single “Kinda Don't Care”, sales remain miserable unfortunately so I am unsure how long this spark shall last, but this week is a definite shallow thumbs up due to a lot of the spark this week coming from Westwood One but gaining is still gaining at the end of the day. Cole Swindell had a decent week with “Break Up In The End”, however I don't see him passing Lauren Alaina until next week. But Lauren Alaina is looking good to get the #30 spot. This would be her fourth Top 30 at country radio (“Georgia Peaches”, “Road Less Traveled” and “What Ifs”). Brett Young is on a decent pace so far with his new single “Mercy” and the sales for “Mercy” are just phenomenal it seems like, once it hits the Top 30 I expect it to blow up big with radio.
Jerrod Niemann has done horrid this week as it's never good to be on par with a song that's about to enter freefall in the first day. This week just as a whole has been a hot mess imo for “I Got This”. Maren Morris is looking like one of strongest out of all the songs outside the Top 40 as of now as she should be just outside the Top 40 this week. The sales aren't their however and I do wonder just how far her name alone can take this song on the charts as the sales will probably need to improve sooner than later if you ask me, but this week is a solid week for her definitely.
“Diane” this week is looking weak and Cam might lose her bullet if you ask me thanks to KKBQ slashing airplay and as such Cam is eligible for recurrent status next week, I don't think she will go recurrent but she's at risk. LoCash and Sugarland are also not in a good position as both duos have lost a little audience this week as well. Brandon Lay and LANco see ok gains this week and both should set new peaks.
Chris Young and Russell Dickerson won't be moving up much in terms of spots but will pass the latest from Danielle Bradbery. Chris Young could do some headway into the Top 50 as I could see “Hangin’ On” passing Jimmie Allen, Sugardland and/or LoCash. Russell Dickerson and Kelsea Ballerini are off to fast starts with their new singles and it looks like one of them will make up the last spot in the Top 50.
Trent Harmon will debut with his sophomore single “You Got Em All” along with Old Dominion’s new song “Hotel Key”. Also Aaron Watson and Michael Tyler will re-enter.
Songs I see leaving soon Granger Smith “Happens Like That” High Valley “She's With Me” Brantley Gilbert “The Ones That Like Me” Michael Ray “Get To You” Thomas Rhett “Marry Me” Chris Stapleton “Broken Halos”
On the bubble Lee Brice “Boy” Cam “Diane” Sugarland “Still The Same” Dustin Lynch “I'd Be Jealous Too” Casey Donahew “Country Song” Michael Tyler “Hey Mama” Kid Rock “American Rock N Roll” Next 5 songs I see debuting or returning Walker McGuire “Lost” Stephanie Quayle “Selfish” Thomas Rhett “Sixteen” Travis Denning “David Ashley Parker From Powder Springs” Mitchell Tenpenny “Drunk Me”
Closing Thoughts Boring week as the charts continue to stabilize and we get back to songs moving at a snail pace in terms of positions with a few exceptions, but there is just not much movement as of late on the chart. Next week if Scotty McCreery doesn't go recurrent this week he will next week. Also be on the lookout for High Valley, Michael Ray, Granger Smith, and Brantley Gilbert. All 4 are looking weak and I could see any number of them potentially looking to go recurrent this time next week. There are some hints of another house cleaning but time will tell if that comes to fruition.
That's it for me this week. Have a nice week! Bye!
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seak05
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Post by seak05 on Mar 19, 2018 6:04:52 GMT -5
Top 10 is super stagnant right now, something has to give. Marry Me is falling sloooowly. I could see Halo's falling faster bc it has high negatives, and a high burn....but it also has the top pop score, so maybe not. Also I need a few songs to give up, especially because it looks like Luke is going for multi-weeks at the top (as he should). I can't imagine Warner won't push Brett for #1, but I wonder if Dawson gets dropped, also Granger Smith needs to go, and Darius' song is only around top 200 at itunes (but probably won't be dropped).
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2018 20:52:00 GMT -5
Top 10 is super stagnant right now, something has to give. Marry Me is falling sloooowly. I could see Halo's falling faster bc it has high negatives, and a high burn....but it also has the top pop score, so maybe not. Also I need a few songs to give up, especially because it looks like Luke is going for multi-weeks at the top (as he should). I can't imagine Warner won't push Brett for #1, but I wonder if Dawson gets dropped, also Granger Smith needs to go, and Darius' song is only around top 200 at itunes (but probably won't be dropped). Chris Stapleton is going for another week. Devin Dawson is maxing this week. It's funny because I think Warner is about to fuck Brett Eldredge out of a #1 on one of the chart. Jordan Davis finished ahead of Brett Eldredge tonight on Billboard. Also since Devin Dawson is going for max spins this week I imagine Brett Eldredge will go to a screeching halt this week if today's update is any indication. I think Jordan Davis could block Brett Eldredge from the top. Then you have the unstoppable force of Bebe Rexha/FGL starting to really apply the pressure to Brett Eldredge and Jordan Davis. So I'm not even sure Jordan Davis can hit #1. Granger Smith has power up adds so he isn't long. Besides Scotty McCreery I don't see who else goes recurrent next week on Billboard. Maybe Brantley Gilbert or Michael Ray gives up. But that'd be the extent. Keith Urban should debut next week and I think Travis Denning will also debut next week as well.
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seak05
2x Platinum Member
Joined: October 2016
Posts: 2,181
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Post by seak05 on Mar 20, 2018 12:04:55 GMT -5
Top 10 is super stagnant right now, something has to give. Marry Me is falling sloooowly. I could see Halo's falling faster bc it has high negatives, and a high burn....but it also has the top pop score, so maybe not. Also I need a few songs to give up, especially because it looks like Luke is going for multi-weeks at the top (as he should). I can't imagine Warner won't push Brett for #1, but I wonder if Dawson gets dropped, also Granger Smith needs to go, and Darius' song is only around top 200 at itunes (but probably won't be dropped). Chris Stapleton is going for another week. Devin Dawson is maxing this week. It's funny because I think Warner is about to f**k Brett Eldredge out of a #1 on one of the chart. Jordan Davis finished ahead of Brett Eldredge tonight on Billboard. Also since Devin Dawson is going for max spins this week I imagine Brett Eldredge will go to a screeching halt this week if today's update is any indication. I think Jordan Davis could block Brett Eldredge from the top. Then you have the unstoppable force of Bebe Rexha/FGL starting to really apply the pressure to Brett Eldredge and Jordan Davis. So I'm not even sure Jordan Davis can hit #1. Granger Smith has power up adds so he isn't long. Besides Scotty McCreery I don't see who else goes recurrent next week on Billboard. Maybe Brantley Gilbert or Michael Ray gives up. But that'd be the extent. Keith Urban should debut next week and I think Travis Denning will also debut next week as well. Stapleton might be going for a 2nd week, but based on today's update I don't think they're going to get it...at least not on BB. Some of these songs are definitely going to be blocked, and it could happen to Brett. WMN has to many songs in & around the top 10 right now (Dawson, Brett, High Valley, & Blake), I think they're trying to max Devin now to clear out for a push for Brett, and I wouldn't be surprised to see High Valley give up soon either.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Mar 20, 2018 12:35:13 GMT -5
Chris Stapleton is going for another week. Devin Dawson is maxing this week. It's funny because I think Warner is about to f**k Brett Eldredge out of a #1 on one of the chart. Jordan Davis finished ahead of Brett Eldredge tonight on Billboard. Also since Devin Dawson is going for max spins this week I imagine Brett Eldredge will go to a screeching halt this week if today's update is any indication. I think Jordan Davis could block Brett Eldredge from the top. Then you have the unstoppable force of Bebe Rexha/FGL starting to really apply the pressure to Brett Eldredge and Jordan Davis. So I'm not even sure Jordan Davis can hit #1. Granger Smith has power up adds so he isn't long. Besides Scotty McCreery I don't see who else goes recurrent next week on Billboard. Maybe Brantley Gilbert or Michael Ray gives up. But that'd be the extent. Keith Urban should debut next week and I think Travis Denning will also debut next week as well. Stapleton might be going for a 2nd week, but based on today's update I don't think they're going to get it...at least not on BB. Some of these songs are definitely going to be blocked, and it could happen to Brett. WMN has to many songs in & around the top 10 right now (Dawson, Brett, High Valley, & Blake), I think they're trying to max Devin now to clear out for a push for Brett, and I wouldn't be surprised to see High Valley give up soon either. I don't think they will get it on either chart which is a shame because I feel like it'd add another layer of uncertainty on who gets to #1. I think the push is for Devin Dawson because his song is one that radio just wants to be done with. "All On Me" has been in the Top 15 for the past 4 months, it's callout isn't good at all and the sales remain mediocre. As for High Valley I don't think they'll give up this week, since Devin Dawson is done after this week and I doubt the label would let go of 2 songs just like that. That being said "She's With Me" is barely treading water and despite my absolute love for it. It needs to gtfo, so maybe they'll cut that song soon. Regardless I'm ready for some of these songs to leave especially with new Keith Urban, Kenny Chesney, Old Dominion impacting sooner than later.
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CoJoFan
7x Platinum Member
Joined: December 2013
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Post by CoJoFan on Mar 21, 2018 19:44:54 GMT -5
“Heaven”, “I Lived It”, “Drunk Girl” & “Mercy” are in the top 40 and to me all should be #1 hits (“Drunk Girl” is the only one right now I’m worried about getting there). With that being said they all 4 have something else in common and I don’t know that we’ve ever had 4 songs in the top 50 with this in common before. Anyone know what I’m taking about? onebuffalo you might know. If so you might be able to tell us if this thing they have in common has ever happened.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Mar 25, 2018 14:55:55 GMT -5
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60
(1.) Luke Bryan “Most People Are Good” (2.) Devin Dawson “All On Me” (3.) Thomas Rhett “Marry Me” (4-6.) Jordan Davis “Singles You Up” (4-6.) Bebe Rexha featuring Florida Georgia Line “Meant to Be” (4-6.) Brett Eldredge “The Long Way” (7.) Chris Stapleton “Broken Halos” (last week) (8-9.) Jason Aldean “You Make It Easy” (8-9.) High Valley “She's With Me” (10.) Kane Brown “Heaven” (11.) Darius Rucker “For The First Time” (12.) Blake Shelton “I Lived It” (13-14.) Dierks Bentley “Woman Amen” (13-14.) Granger Smith “Happens Like That” (15.) David Lee Murphy & Kenny Chesney “Everything's Gonna Be Alright” (16.) Luke Combs “One Number Away” (17.) Lee Brice “Boy”(last week?)(45% chance of going recurrent this week) (18.) Morgan Wallen featuring Florida Georgia Line “Up Down” (19.) Brantley Gilbert “The Ones That Like Me” (last week?) (20-22.) Chris Lane & Tori Kelly “Take Back Home Girl” (20-22.) Jake Owen “I Was Jack (You Were Diane)” (20-22.) Michael Ray “Get To You” (23.) Morgan Evans “Kiss Somebody” (24.) Keith Urban & Julia Michaels “Comin’ Home (25.) Lindsay Ell “Criminal” (26.) Jon Pardi “She Ain't In It” (last week?) (27-28.) Dylan Scott “Hooked” (27-28.) Lady Antebellum “Heart Break” (29-32.) Dan + Shay “Tequila” (29-32.) Chase Rice “Three Chords and the Truth” (29-32.) Lauren Alaina “Doin Fine” (29-32.) Justin Moore “Kinda Don't Care” (33.) Cole Swindell “Breakup In The End” (34.) Ashley McBryde “A Little Dive Bar In Dahlonega” (35.) Chris Janson “Drunk Girl” (36.) Brett Young “Mercy” (37.) Runaway June “Wild West” (38-39.) Carly Pearce “Hide The Wine” (38-39.) Dustin Lynch “I'd Be Jealous Too” (40.) Brothers Osborne “Shoot Me Straight” (41-44.) Kip Moore “Last Shot” (41-44.) Jerrod Niemann “I Got This” (41-44.) Maren Morris “Rich” (41-44.) LANco “Born To Love You” (45-48.) Chris Young “Hangin’ On” (45-48.) Cam “Diane” (35% chance of going recurrent) (45-48.) LoCash “Don't Get Better Than That” (45-48.) Kelsea Ballerini “I Hate Love Songs” (49-52.) Sugarland “Still The Same” (49-52.) Jimmie Allen “Best Shot” (49-52.) Russell Dickerson “Blue Tacoma” (49-52.) Brandon Lay “Speakers, Bleachers, and Preachers” (53.) Danielle Bradbery “Worth It” (54-55.) Trent Harmon “You Got Em All” (54-55.) Old Dominion “Hotel Key” (56.) Sir Rosevelt “Something Bout You” (57-58.) Jillian Jacqueline “Reasons” (57-58.) Casey Donahew “Country Song” (59-60.) Eric Paslay “Young Forever” (59-60.) Aaron Watson “Run Wild Horses”
New and Active Michael Tyler “Hey Mama” Kacey Musgraves “Butterflies” Mitchell Tenpenny “Drunk Me” Travis Denning “David Ashley Parker From Powder Springs” Stephanie Quayle “Selfish” Jessie James Decker & Randy Houser “Almost Over You”
Going Recurrent or Drop outs Scotty McCreery “Five More Minutes” Peak: #1 Kid Rock “American Rock N Roll” Peak: #52
Commentary/Highlights Despite Devin Dawson really going all out this week and Warner Bros Nashville throwing everything at the wall to get “All On Me” to #1. Luke Bryan as expected will hit #1 this week with “Most People Are Good”. Due to this huge push week from Devin Dawson, I expect “All On Me” to fall and fall very hard like “Legends”, “I Could Use A Love Song”, “Losing Sleep” have earlier this year. As for Luke Bryan this will be his first week at the top and I imagine he will get 1 more week at the top before ceding the #1 spot to 1 of Jordan Davis, Brett Eldredge, or Bebe Rexha/FGL.
Speaking of those 3. The 3 of them are competing for two of the 3 slots in the Top 5. Bebe Rexha/FGL are like an unstoppable missile right now on the chart. Due to that I remain unsure of both Brett Eldredge and Jordan Davis’ chances of #1. I feel okay with Jordan Davis but with Brett Eldredge and “The Long Way”, I have very little confidence unless Brett Eldredge can really start getting back into things as the massive slow down this week really condensed the chances of “The Long Way” hitting #1.
High Valley needs to push for the Top 5 this next week. Whether or not they can achieve that is another thing, especially with Jason Aldean being so close. But Warner Bros needs to put all their attention on getting “She's With Me” as high as possible next week. Kane Brown will end up in the Top 10 and one of the greatest gainers this week with “Heaven”.
Darius Rucker continues to remain just outside the Top 10 with “For The First Time” as this week was kind of a drag this week. Darius really didn't gain all that much and is still just outside the Top 10 on Billboard for another week. Lee Brice is at a pretty high risk of going recurrent as he has lost a good amount of spins and even his audience as taken a bit of a hit. Luke Combs “One Number Away” is one of the biggest standouts this week with gaining. Brantley Gilbert looks to lose his bullet as he himself is also looking to potentially be at the end of the road here soon.
It's a three song battle for the last spot in the Top 20 this week. Jake Owen “I Was Jack (You Were Diane” is gaining well and if Jake Owen hits the Top 20 he would be in the Top 20 his 4th week on the chart. For Chris Lane/Tori Kelly they initially had a pretty strong week, but a lot of the gains in audience this week were Westwood One which doesn't translate to Billboard at all. As for Michael Ray he has a slim shot, he gained ok and if he did hit the Top 20 it would be his fourth Top 20. Keith Urban & Julia Michaels (seriously wtf country radio at having 5 solo women in the Top 30 and 3 are pop artists) should have a Top 30 debut with the new song “Comin’ Home”.
Jon Pardi really messed up this week and I think he will get a grace week, but “She Ain't In It” really faltered this week and Jon Pardi needs to re-bullet. Lady Antebellum stands a chance to set a new peak this week and land at #27 if “Heart Break” can sneak ahead of “Hooked” by Dylan Scott. It's a fight to the finish between 4 songs this week. Chase Rice “Three Chords and the Truth”, Lauren Alaina “Doin Fine”, Justin Moore” “Kinda Don't Care”, and Dan + Shay “Tequila” look to battle for the last 2 spots in the Top 30. For Chase Rice and Justin Moore it is just trying to maintain their spots in the Top 30 as both men were near non existent gains. Lauren Alaina had a decent week this week and got a bit of a boost this week from “Doin’ Fine” entering the Top 30 nearly a couple weeks ago on Mediabase and CCUSA playing Lauren Alaina this weekend. Dan + Shay had one of the biggest gains in the 20s and 30s, despite some help from Westwood One they are contenders for the Top 20.
Cole Swindell, Maren Morris, and Brett Young barely gain this week. For Cole Swindell and Maren Morris they look to be set back a couple of spots this week. Runaway June won't see a new peak this week with “Wild West” but the trio of ladies saw a good week in gains this week. Brothers Osborne with a little help with CT40 will enter the Billboard Top 40 this week.
Cam is eligible for recurrent status this week and I still remain on the fence. I left “Diane” on the charts, but she could easily go recurrent. Good weeks this week for LANco, Chris Young, Kelsea Ballerini, Russell Dickerson, Danielle Bradbery and Trent Harmon. All 6 of these songs are off to really solid starts and when the charts clear out a bit I think they'll really take off. Old Dominion will debut with their brand new single “Hotel Key”.
Songs I see leaving soon Granger Smith “Happens Like That” Devin Dawson "All On Me" High Valley “She's With Me” Brantley Gilbert “The Ones That Like Me” Michael Ray “Get To You” Thomas Rhett “Marry Me” Chris Stapleton “Broken Halos”
On the bubble Lee Brice “Boy” Cam “Diane” Sugarland “Still The Same” Dustin Lynch “I'd Be Jealous Too” Casey Donahew “Country Song” Next 5 songs I see debuting or returning Travis Denning “David Ashley Parker From Powder Springs” Cale Dodds “Take You Back” Mitchell Tenpenny “Drunk Me” Kenny Chesney- TBA Midland “Burn Out” James Barker Band “Chills”
Closing Thoughts So another slow week as the Keith Urban debut really slows down everybody below him on the chart. Chris Stapleton is a 100% lock to go recurrent next week, and with any luck we will also see Lee Brice, Brantley Gilbert, and Granger Smith pack their bags and gtfo. I am hoping at least one of those 3. Devin Dawson will have a really big fall next week and next week will probably be his last week on the Billboard chart with “All On Me”. Finally I think/hope High Valley will max spin next week, hopefully fail to hit the Top 5 on Billboard and then they can go recurrent with Devin Dawson as well.
That's it for me. See everyone for my predictions next week. Bye everyone have a great week❤❤
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Mar 26, 2018 21:14:26 GMT -5
So this week Granger Smith and Scotty McCreery went away and Eric Paslay fell off the chart. Oh well.
Next week Chris Stapleton is a lock to go recurrent 100%. No way in hell he stays on the chart. The indicator chart indicates that Lee Brice has just about hit the end of the road as well so he has a good chance of leaving as well. Also Jon Pardi lost his bullet and if he doesn't rebullet he will be sent recurrent as well next week.
For new arrivals next week. I'm gonna play it immediately safe and say that the new Kenny Chesney single, Mitchell Tenpenny and Travis Denning will debut. Maybe some chart movement with like Michael Tyler falling out and then someone like James Barker Band, Eric Paslay, Kacey Musgraves, etc. replaces him.
Look for Devin Dawson this week to crash and burn this week. He won't fall out of the Top 10 I don't think (not that it matters) but he will be falling fast.
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