dlostfan
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Joined: January 2012
Posts: 143
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Post by dlostfan on Sept 21, 2012 12:20:25 GMT -5
So, this (Billboard) year is coming to a close.
I have been tracking sales, Airplay and streaming for all big hits every week this year so far and have projected for the rest of the year (assuming there are 8 more weeks). I have tried to apply Billboard's methodologies as closely as I can.
So here are my predictions (or rather projections):
Digital Songs (Sales in millions)
1. Somebody That I used to Know - 6.60
2. Call Me Maybe - 6.06
3. We Are Young - 5.70
4. Payphone - 4.47
5. Sexy and I Know It - 3.92
6. Starships - 3.80
7. What Makes You Beautiful - 3.67
8. Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You) - 3.50
9. Wild Ones - 3.28
10. Set Fire to the Rain - 3.26
11. Glad You Came - 3.11
12. Boyfriend - 2.94
13. Lights - 2.83
14. Some Nights - 2.82
15. Whistle - 2.80
16. We Found Love - 2.77
17. Good Feeling - 2.65
18. We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together - 2.60
19. Young, Wild & Free - 2.59
20. Wide Awake - 2.52
Radio Songs (Billion Audience impressions)
1. Somebody That I used to Know - 3.14
2. We Found Love - 3.10
3. We Are Young - 2.45
4. Set Fire to the Rain - 2.45
5. Payphone - 2.45
6. Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You) - 2.37
7. Call Me Maybe - 2.31
8. Glad You Came - 2.28
9. Good Feeling - 2.24
10. Lights - 2.05
11. Where Have You Been - 2.01
12. It Will Rain - 1.93
13. Wide Awake - 1.89
14. Starships - 1.85
15. Sexy and I Know It - 1.82
16. Wild Ones - 1.80
17. Moves Like Jagger - 1.78
18. What Makes You Beautiful - 1.71
19. Take Care - 1.66
20. The One That I Got Away - 1.60
Hot 100
1. Somebody That I used to Know
2. We Are Young
3. Call Me Maybe
4. Payphone
5. We Found Love
6. Sexy and I Know It
7. Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You)
8. Starships
9. Set Fire to the Rain
10. Glad You Came
11. What Makes You Beautiful
12. Wild Ones
13. Lights
14. Good Feeling
15. The Motto
16. Wide Awake
17. It Will Rain
18. Whistle
19. Moves Like Jagger
20-21 Boyfriend
20-21 Where Have You Been
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Post by josh on Sept 21, 2012 12:22:23 GMT -5
I'm still hoping Call Me Maybe can sneak in to #2, but I don't think it will happen. :'(
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Lozzy
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Post by Lozzy on Sept 21, 2012 12:25:41 GMT -5
7. Call Me Maybe - 2.01
8. Glad You Came - 2.28
9. Good Feeling - 2.24
10. Lights - 2.05
11. Where Have You Been - 2.01 Was the total for "Call Me Maybe" mis-typed? |
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dlostfan
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Joined: January 2012
Posts: 143
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Post by dlostfan on Sept 21, 2012 12:35:54 GMT -5
7. Call Me Maybe - 2.01
8. Glad You Came - 2.28
9. Good Feeling - 2.24
10. Lights - 2.05
11. Where Have You Been - 2.01 Was the total for "Call Me Maybe" mis-typed? Oh... yes... it is 2.31 actually. Fixed. |
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dlostfan
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Posts: 143
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Post by dlostfan on Sept 21, 2012 12:38:44 GMT -5
I'm still hoping Call Me Maybe can sneak in to #2, but I don't think it will happen. :'( Call Me Maybe will need to hold really well and WAY will need to fall off the charts in a couple of weeks. Furthermore, we don't know how the chart points before and after the rule change weight against each other. So there is always a chance since CMM is only 3% behind WAY according to my projections. |
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Post by Rocky on Sept 21, 2012 12:41:05 GMT -5
So Boyfriend won't pass 3 million?
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2012 12:54:25 GMT -5
Boyfriend is no longer on the Hot 100, so whatever chart points it had when it went recurrent, is all the chart points it's going to get (unless it randomly re-enters at some point.)
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dlostfan
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Posts: 143
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Post by dlostfan on Sept 21, 2012 12:54:44 GMT -5
It will pass 3 million total very soon, but for the Year-end charts, only the sales of those weeks are added when a song has charted (i.e. appeared in Top-75). Boyfriend fell off the charts three weeks ago and the total sales till then were 2.94 million.
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Post by Rocky on Sept 21, 2012 13:04:50 GMT -5
Thank you ry4n and dlostfan! Another thing I learnt from the Hot 100 recurrency rules.  |
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Lozzy
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Posts: 49,237
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Post by Lozzy on Sept 21, 2012 13:06:02 GMT -5
Wait, so once a song goes recurrent it stops counting to the year-end charts? :o Never knew that.
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icefire9
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Posts: 2,071
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Post by icefire9 on Sept 21, 2012 13:38:36 GMT -5
I'm still hoping Call Me Maybe can sneak in to #2, but I don't think it will happen. :'( Call Me Maybe will need to hold really well and WAY will need to fall off the charts in a couple of weeks. Furthermore, we don't know how the chart points before and after the rule change weight against each other. So there is always a chance since CMM is only 3% behind WAY according to my projections. Yeah, I've gotten the same result with my system. Call Me Maybe will probably be at #3. |
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Post by franzjoseph on Sept 21, 2012 13:45:41 GMT -5
I want CMM to go up to #2 :(
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Post by when the pawn... on Sept 21, 2012 13:48:34 GMT -5
I think Some Nights will be top 20 digital...it's already passed 2 million sold.
ARTIST OF THE YEAR
1 Adele
2-3 Rihanna
2-3 Drake
4-5 One Direction
4-5 Katy Perry
I believe Adele & Rihanna were #1 and #2 on 2011 as well, yes?
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fridayteenage
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Shake it Off
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Post by fridayteenage on Sept 21, 2012 19:25:16 GMT -5
From the projections: 5. Sexy and I Know It - 3.92
20. Party Rock Anthem - 2.51
9. Wild Ones - 3.28
14. Whistle - 2.80
16. Good Feeling - 2.65
So our biggest digital single sellers of the chart year are generic singles artists?
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dlostfan
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Joined: January 2012
Posts: 143
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Post by dlostfan on Sept 21, 2012 20:45:26 GMT -5
I think Some Nights will be top 20 digital...it's already passed 2 million sold. Oh yes.... totally forgot about it. Should cross 2.8 million by the end of the year. |
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dlostfan
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Posts: 143
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Post by dlostfan on Nov 22, 2012 4:03:56 GMT -5
Revised year-end predictions:
Digital Songs (Sales in millions)
1. Somebody That I used to Know - 6.53
2. Call Me Maybe - 6.07
3. We Are Young - 5.68
4. Payphone - 4.49
5. Sexy and I Know It - 3.92
6. Starships - 3.72
7. What Makes You Beautiful - 3.59
8. Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You) - 3.50
9. Wild Ones - 3.28
10. Set Fire to the Rain - 3.26
11. Glad You Came - 3.11
12. Boyfriend - 2.94
14. Some Nights - 2.93
13. Lights - 2.82
15. Whistle - 2.81
16. We Found Love - 2.77
17. Good Feeling - 2.65
18. One More Night - 2.63
19. We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together - 2.60
20. Young, Wild & Free - 2.59
21. Wide Awake - 2.53
22. Party Rock Anthem - 2.51
23. The Motto - 2.50
24. Gangnam Style - 2.29
25. It Will Rain - 2.24
Radio Songs (Billion Audience impressions)
1. Somebody That I used to Know - 3.12
2. We Found Love - 3.10
3. Payphone - 2.47
4. We Are Young - 2.46
5. Set Fire to the Rain - 2.45
6. Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You) - 2.37
7. Call Me Maybe - 2.33
8. Glad You Came - 2.31
9. Good Feeling - 2.24
10. Lights - 2.07
11. Where Have You Been - 1.93
12. It Will Rain - 1.93
13. Starships - 1.85
14. Wide Awake - 1.84
15. Sexy and I Know It - 1.82
16. Wild Ones - 1.80
17. Moves Like Jagger - 1.78
18. Take Care - 1.66
19. What Makes You Beautiful - 1.65
20. The One That I Got Away - 1.60
21. The Motto - 1.58
22. Blow Me (One Last Kiss) - 1.52
23. Turn Me On - 1.50
24. Without You - 1.49
25. One More Night - 1.40
Hot 100
1. Somebody That I used to Know
2. We Are Young
3. Call Me Maybe
4. Payphone
5. We Found Love
6. Sexy and I Know It
7. Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You)
8. Set Fire to the Rain
9. Glad You Came
10. Starships
11. What Makes You Beautiful
12. Good Feeling
13. Lights
14. Wild Ones
15. The Motto
16. It Will Rain
17. Wide Awake
18. Some Nights
19. Moves Like Jagger
20. One More Night
21. Whistle
22. Party Rock Anthem
23-25 Young, Wild & Free
23-25 Boyfriend
23-25 Where Have You Been
All the numbers are based on week 1-52 performance. It is possible that this year's charts includes the 53rd week as well. If that's the case then Some Nights and One More Night will move up 1 spot in Hot 100 and Digital Songs charts. One More Night will also move up 2 spots in Radio Songs chart.
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forg
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Posts: 2,355
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Post by forg on Dec 4, 2012 23:46:18 GMT -5
My predictions
1. Somebody That I Used to Know
2. Call Me Maybe
3. We Are Young
4. We Found Love
5. Payphone
6. Stronger
7. Sexy and I Know It
8. Set Fire to the Rain
9. Lights
10. Starships
11. Glad You Came
12. What Makes You Beautiful
13. Some Nights
14. One More Night
15. Good Feeling
16. Wild Ones
17. Boyfriend
18. Wide Awake
19. Whistle
20. We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together
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SPRΞΞ
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Posts: 21,743
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Post by SPRΞΞ on Dec 5, 2012 0:20:14 GMT -5
Wide Awake held on a lot longer than Whistle did.
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forg
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Posts: 2,355
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Post by forg on Dec 5, 2012 1:27:07 GMT -5
I forgot about Wide Awake, yeah that will likely end up in the top 20. Will revise my predictions
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Rodze
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Posts: 2,546
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Post by Rodze on Dec 12, 2012 15:00:45 GMT -5
Are we expecting the year-end charts this week or next week?
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Post by Quixotic Music Lover on Dec 12, 2012 18:31:48 GMT -5
Are we expecting the year-end charts this week or next week? The year-end charts are in the December 22nd issue of Billboard, so likely Thursday, December 13th. |
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kmbgs
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Joined: October 2008
Posts: 7,242
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Post by kmbgs on Dec 12, 2012 18:36:18 GMT -5
OMG that's tmw
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