Zazie
5x Platinum Member
Joined: September 2003
Posts: 5,144
|
Post by Zazie on Dec 13, 2012 9:40:20 GMT -5
It'll only fall fast if it has some weeks with huge gains, and we haven't seen that yet. It could happen, but there's nothing about the recent chart run of Begin Again to suggest that it will. (But there are occasional surprises, as JH pointed out.)
It might help to point out that you see the Billboard chart change patterns every couple of years -- but right now it takes very little airplay to make the top 40. That's not always true -- sometimes it takes 3 million impressions -- but now it takes less than two, and that's been true for awhile. So it's easy for a song to jump from a very low chart position well up into the top 40, the way Lee Brice just moved 53-36 by gaining 1.4 million impressions. Lee's song is very powerful, but if he can jump 17 positions then so can a lot of other artists, if they get a relatively modest surge in one early chart week.
On the other hand, it's hard to get into the top 20 nowadays, which is why the Kacey/Casey twins have been taking the slow road with audience numbers that, in past years, might have gotten them into the top 20 already.
You might need to watch the chart for a year or so to pick up the patterns.
|
|
Marv
6x Platinum Member
Joined: September 2004
Posts: 6,308
|
Post by Marv on Dec 13, 2012 22:00:20 GMT -5
It doesn't really matter whether you're discussing the fourth, fifth, or even sixth single from a CD; songs by format superstars are going to take huge jumps in their second weeks on both charts, and routinely reach the top 20 in four or five weeks.
Witness the 50-37-30-26-20 (projected) chart progression after five weeks for 'Two Black Cadillacs'.
Then comes the hard part; getting from #20 or so to #1.
'Love's Gonna Make It Alright' needed 15 weeks to climb from #21 to #1 exactly a year ago at Mediabase.
'Begin Again' might make the top ten, even if it takes another three or four weeks to get there, since she's surrounded by superstars ahead of and behind her.
|
|
goodsoul81
New Member
Joined: December 2011
Posts: 122
|
Post by goodsoul81 on Dec 14, 2012 4:18:30 GMT -5
current pop single video
|
|
Taylor.
Moderator
Joined: January 2007
Posts: 18,713
Staff
|
Post by Taylor. on Dec 14, 2012 9:47:53 GMT -5
Luckily iTunes didn't classify "I Knew You Were Trouble" as country or that would be the current #1 on the Billboard Hot Country Songs. It actually is labeled as country on iTunes (the album as a whole is), but Billboard has stated a song needs to have at least some country influences to chart on the Hot Country Songs chart.
|
|
Marv
6x Platinum Member
Joined: September 2004
Posts: 6,308
|
Post by Marv on Dec 15, 2012 11:01:34 GMT -5
I hope her label has a ton of patience to get her into the top ten at Mediabase within a few weeks; it certainly won't be tomorrow, since Jason & The Band Perry are already ahead of her in spins, and one or both of them will pass her today.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 15, 2012 12:49:30 GMT -5
I hope her label has a ton of patience to get her into the top ten at Mediabase within a few weeks; it certainly won't be tomorrow, since Jason & The Band Perry are already ahead of her in spins, and one or both of them will pass her today. They were already both ahead of her but Taylor got back ahead of Jason, and today she got back ahead of TBP. She's at #11 now. She's exactly 1000 spins behind Kenny, but she's further behind Aldean in that category and yet she's ahead of him on the chart. With the way the updates have been trending, I wouldn't be surprised to see one more big day for BA that gets her ahead of Kenny and up to #10. Again, she's behind him in spins but she is ahead in audience. No one from the top 10 will go recurrent on Mediabase tomorrow afternoon. So Taylor will need to pass Kenny to take his top 10 spot, otherwise she likely won't see the top 10 for a while, maybe not at all. Because I think she's definitely gotten quite the push this week (with the label sacrificing a little momentum from TBP) to stave off Jason and TBP so she could have a shot at the top 10. But I don't think this trend will continue. "Begin Again" has been the song floundering for weeks now, whereas "The Only Way I Know" and "Better Dig Two" have been flying up the chart. While I do like BA, Kenny's song might be my favorite on the charts right now. Still, I'd be ok with Taylor taking his top 10 spot. With such a push these past few days, that might indicate that Big Machine will be satisfied with a Mediabase top 10 for this song and then maybe they can move on in January. Because even if she somehow holds them off for another week next week, I don't see any way she can keep ahead of them after Christmas. Hopefully, when things pick up again then, Kenny will be able to pick up steam. He's really struggling again.
|
|
Taylor.
Moderator
Joined: January 2007
Posts: 18,713
Staff
|
Post by Taylor. on Dec 17, 2012 10:06:28 GMT -5
I hope this can make the top 10 this week. It's so close.
|
|
jenglisbe
Diamond Member
Joined: January 2005
Posts: 34,584
|
Post by jenglisbe on Dec 17, 2012 21:27:01 GMT -5
How has this song completely lost its bullet twice now, only to rebound?
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2012 3:42:02 GMT -5
I don't think this has ever lost its bullet...maybe for an individual day or two on Mediabase but it hasn't had any week go by where it didn't post a net gain (on both MB & BB). It has moved slowly over the last several weeks but the label has kept pushing it. She's at #11 on Mediabase, and #12 on Billboard. If they can keep this gaining for 1 more week, she may be able to sneak into the top 10. There's a chance Greg Bates will go recurrent on Billboard next Monday, maybe Eric Church too if he falls hard enough, but we won't know for a few days.
I actually think that her top 10 chances are probably a little better on Billboard because neither Greg nor Eric can go recurrent on Mediabase yet, which means she'd have to pass someone to move to #10 on Mediabase and the only possible artist she could pass is Kenny, but I don't know if that's likely.
It's far from a guarantee, though, that she'll hit top 10 on any chart this week. And if they don't, it'll be interesting to see if they'll keep trying in January, or if they'll move on to a new single in about a month.
|
|
Taylor.
Moderator
Joined: January 2007
Posts: 18,713
Staff
|
Post by Taylor. on Dec 18, 2012 9:01:32 GMT -5
She entered the top 10 on Mediabase today. Now she just has to hold until Sunday!
13 10 TAYLOR SWIFT Begin Again 4034 3829 205 32.711
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2012 2:40:27 GMT -5
She entered the top 10 on Mediabase today. Now she just has to hold until Sunday! 13 10 TAYLOR SWIFT Begin Again 4034 3829 205 32.711 I think she will. Things are looking good for her. She does pass Kenny, who is looking all but done. BA's gain was a small 50k, and Jason gained 590k, so he could pass this one later this week BUT it looks like Taylor will pass Greg Bates by the end of the week so she should be able to hang on to that #10 spot. Here's the thing, though. Mediabase doesn't publish an 'official' chart for the next 2 weeks. So 2 years ago, they never counted Reba's "Turn On The Radio" and Jason's "My Kinda Party" as #1 hits during the 2 weeks the chart was on hiatus, even though those songs were #1 on the 2 Sundays. And last year, ZBB's "Keep Me In Mind" was a 4-week #1 hit but Mediabase only counts it as a 2-week #1 hit. I don't think it matters though, to the fans or the label or us here on Pulse. And in any case, I think her chances at making the Billboard top 10 are even better, since both Greg Bates and Eric Church could go recurrent there at the end of the week. The Billboard Country Update is on hiatus for the next 2 Mondays as well but at least Billboard still counts their chart as official during the 2-week holiday hiatus; the chart is just a little tougher to find online.
|
|
jenglisbe
Diamond Member
Joined: January 2005
Posts: 34,584
|
Post by jenglisbe on Dec 19, 2012 10:30:30 GMT -5
I don't think this has ever lost its bullet...maybe for an individual day or two on Mediabase but it hasn't had any week go by where it didn't post a net gain (on both MB & BB). It has moved slowly over the last several weeks but the label has kept pushing it. She's at #11 on Mediabase, and #12 on Billboard. If they can keep this gaining for 1 more week, she may be able to sneak into the top 10. There's a chance Greg Bates will go recurrent on Billboard next Monday, maybe Eric Church too if he falls hard enough, but we won't know for a few days. Well, within the past month I saw on Mediabase where it literally had a bullet of 0 for that past week. And then another time after that it went back down to almost 0. It obviously rebounded both times. You just don't usually see songs fall that low multiple times and rebound.
|
|
Marv
6x Platinum Member
Joined: September 2004
Posts: 6,308
|
Post by Marv on Dec 19, 2012 11:32:01 GMT -5
'Keep Me In Mind' would have spent five weeks at #1 @ Country Aircheck/Mediabase in 2011-12 if it hadn't been for a deliberate 750+ gain in spins which propelled 'Let it Rain' to #1.
That was obviously the biggest hit of their career, but I also have to acknowledge that there have been extremely few songs which have gained almost 300 spins after already having spent four weeks at #1; it also spent four weeks at #1 at Billboard as well, which certainly contributed to them replacing Lady Antebellum as the top group on the singles chart in 2012.
That remains the most astonishing chart run for anybody over the past five years, next to the six-week stay in the penthouse for 'Don't Blink'.
Getting back to Taylor, holding on to that #10 slot ahead of Jason's latest won't be all that easy; this is definitely going to be a white-knuckle race all week, unless the Greg Bates tune starts losing spins even faster.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2012 13:22:31 GMT -5
That remains the most astonishing chart run for anybody over the past five years, next to the six-week stay in the penthouse for 'Don't Blink'. Did you forget "Need You Now"? Getting back to Taylor, holding on to that #10 slot ahead of Jason's latest won't be all that easy; this is definitely going to be a white-knuckle race all week, unless the Greg Bates tune starts losing spins even faster. Taylor should easily pass Greg on Billboard and I'd bet she does on Mediabase too. I don't think it'll be that hard for her to finish the week in the top 10.
|
|
Marv
6x Platinum Member
Joined: September 2004
Posts: 6,308
|
Post by Marv on Dec 19, 2012 21:04:32 GMT -5
'Need You Now' spent 4 weeks atop the Mediabase chart, the first three weeks with a bullet.
Once these charts get purged in mid-January, Taylor might climb a little more, but there's plenty of serious competition behind her.
January will be a very interesting month chartwise, to put it mildly.
|
|
|
Post by taylorstan91 on Dec 20, 2012 8:45:55 GMT -5
Love this song! One of her best tbh
|
|
kml567
Gold Member
Joined: June 2005
Posts: 972
|
Post by kml567 on Dec 23, 2012 9:54:40 GMT -5
Officially top 10 on Mediabase.
Will Big Machine finally dump this snoozer of a song? Hopefully new single in January.
|
|
Marv
6x Platinum Member
Joined: September 2004
Posts: 6,308
|
Post by Marv on Dec 23, 2012 11:34:18 GMT -5
Extremely unlikely, since 4 of the top 10 songs and 6 of the top 15 will all go recurrent next month; they could try to get this into the top five. but whether that works is another matter.
I do expect The Band Perry to pass her real soon, with Tim, Carrie & Little Big Town in hot pursuit.
From what I've read on this board, there don't appear to be any more tunes compatible with country radio from this CD.
|
|
Eloqueen™
Diamond Member
TSC: Certified Member
Joined: September 2007
Posts: 21,000
|
Post by Eloqueen™ on Dec 23, 2012 11:42:27 GMT -5
There are most definitely tracks left on Red that would work on country radio: "Red", "I Almost Do", "Stay Stay Stay", "All Too Well" etc.
|
|
carriekins
5x Platinum Member
With my mouth wide open in a whiskey rain, I could stand here 24 hours a day...
Joined: November 2011
Posts: 5,329
|
Post by carriekins on Dec 23, 2012 11:47:28 GMT -5
From this thread alone I've heard that "Stay Stay Stay" and "All Too Well" are easily candidates for country radio, and like Will said, "Red" and "I Almost Do" could work as well.
I doubt they're going to pull this any time soon - I'd give it at the very least through the end of January before they decide to move on.
|
|
jdbowman
Gold Member
Joined: March 2012
Posts: 830
|
Post by jdbowman on Dec 23, 2012 12:57:08 GMT -5
I'm hoping for 'Stay, Stay, Stay.' 'Tis a guilty pleasure.
|
|
slayZ
3x Platinum Member
Joined: November 2010
Posts: 3,232
|
Post by slayZ on Dec 23, 2012 14:07:12 GMT -5
Meh, if people thought WANEGBT was "juvenile," I'm sure they'd be annoyed by this. Personally I'm rooting for Red and I Almost Do after. 2 ballads in a row could be risky, and I think Red is definitely a strong contender for single #3, for both Country and Pop.
|
|
Taylor.
Moderator
Joined: January 2007
Posts: 18,713
Staff
|
Post by Taylor. on Dec 23, 2012 14:57:32 GMT -5
"Stay Stay Stay" is like a siller version of "Ours," which country radio ate up. I think it'd do well, but I'd rather it be a single later down the line.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2012 17:15:26 GMT -5
"All Too Well"
It needs to be released. NEEDS to.
|
|
Eloqueen™
Diamond Member
TSC: Certified Member
Joined: September 2007
Posts: 21,000
|
Post by Eloqueen™ on Jan 4, 2013 17:29:23 GMT -5
Now this may just be a screwball theory, but does anyone think maybe Big Machine is/was intentionally staving this song's ascent so that it would peak alongside "I Knew You Were Trouble" and they could then push "Red" as a dual release? Doing this would allow "Red" to chart on both formats simultaneously, which would in-turn give it the benefit of maximum exposure.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2013 17:57:06 GMT -5
Now this may just be a screwball theory, but does anyone think maybe Big Machine is/was intentionally staving this song's ascent so that it would peak alongside "I Knew You Were Trouble" and they could then push "Red" as a dual release? Doing this would allow "Red" to chart on both formats simultaneously, which would in-turn give it the benefit of maximum exposure. Always a possibility. I don't know that I can completely buy into it but there may be something there. I still retain my belief that the release of WANEGBT hurt Taylor a bit on country radio, which in turn had some programmers not willing to bump "Begin Again" up much higher, but the label has really stuck with it. Maybe once it started to slow up, they did in fact only push just enough to keep it afloat and keep it from going recurrent, knowing that IKYWT would race up the pop chart much faster than BA could move up the country chart. And now, maybe they peak almost simultaneously--close enough that "Red" can indeed be the 3rd single and go to multiple formats.
|
|
layne
Platinum Member
Joined: February 2011
Posts: 1,378
|
Post by layne on Jan 4, 2013 18:06:18 GMT -5
I've wondered if at some point her song with Tim McGraw would be released if she didn't have anything on the charts.
|
|
|
Post by Living Legend on Jan 4, 2013 18:21:12 GMT -5
It would make sense for both songs to peak in February and then simultaneously release "Red" to all formats in March. It would be awesome if she had "I Knew You Were Trouble" go #1 on pop the same week that "Begin Again" went #1 on Country. I'm not holding my breath on this hitting #1 on Country though, unless Big Machine really starts pushing this in the next 2-3 weeks. Nevertheless a Top 3 peak would be nice.
|
|
drock89
Diamond Member
Joined: October 2007
Posts: 10,985
|
Post by drock89 on Jan 5, 2013 19:42:57 GMT -5
I've wondered if at some point her song with Tim McGraw would be released if she didn't have anything on the charts. Impossible. Call me a cynic, but she is on Tim's record to benefit his career, not vice versa. Sure, she may have never made it without using his name, but she is way past the point of holding singles off her album for the benefit of someone else. RED is chalk-full of potential smash hits, and as has been pointed out, the title track itself would make for a great spring/early summer release.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2013 17:02:51 GMT -5
Interesting. KMLE here in Phoenix has added "All Too Well" to their playlist and according to AllAccess, ATW has gotten 44 spins here over the last 7 days (I'm in Phoenix too).
I don't think it means ATW is the next single though. They've been playing some album tracks for a few months now, ever since the station re-branded itself. They've played Eric Church's "Keep On" a bunch, for example. That's just one case. They were the first station to start playing Florida Georgia Line's "Get Your Shine On" and that one DID become a single. So I guess we'll just have to wait and see.
I don't know how I'd feel about ATW being the next single but it is a great song and I want it to be a single at some point. I don't think KMLE playing it means anything yet, but it is good exposure at the very least.
|
|