Billboard Hot 100: 03/23/13

[cesarams]

The last 5 threads:

03/16/13, 03/09/13, 03/02/13, 02/23/13, 02/16/13

THURSDAY'S UPDATE:
TOP 20:

1. TAYLOR SWIFT – I Knew You Were Trouble: 184.863 (- 0.847)
2. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Thrift Shop f/Wanz: 173.315 (+ 1.404)
3. SWEDISH HOUSE MAFIA – Don't You Worry Child: 154.733 (- 1.521)
4. BRUNO MARS – Locked Out Of Heaven: 150.549 (- 1.391)
5. MAROON 5 – Daylight: 146.887 (+ 0.992)
6. WILL.I.AM & BRITNEY SPEARS – Scream And Shout: 142.662 (+ 0.075)
7. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Suit & Tie f/JAY Z: 132.907 (+ 2.303)
8. LUMINEERS – Ho Hey: 122.733 (- 0.303)
9. BRUNO MARS – When I Was Your Man: 119.246 (+ 3.875)
10. CALVIN HARRIS – Sweet Nothing f/Florence Welch: 106.672 (+ 0.596)
11. KELLY CLARKSON – Catch My Breath: 100.071 (+ 0.174)
12. PINK – Try: 95.967 (- 1.066)
13. IMAGINE DRAGONS – It's Time: 85.758 (+ 0.106)
14. RIHANNA – Pour It Up: 82.090 (- 0.197)
15. MUMFORD & SONS – I Will Wait: 79.660 (+ 1.264)
16. A$AP ROCKY – F**kin Problems f/Drake: 76.252 (+ 0.377)
17. RIHANNA – Stay f/Mikky Ekko: 72.103 (+ 2.082) ▲
18. MAROON 5 – One More Night: 69.892 (- 0.442) ▼
19. PITBULL – Feel This Moment f/C. Aguilera: 68.628 (+ 1.177) ▲
20. JUSTIN BIEBER – Beauty And A Beat f/N. Minaj: 68.182 (- 1.717) ▼

OTHERS:

TIM MCGRAW – One Of Those Nights: 67.786 (- 0.783)
OF MONSTERS AND MEN – Little Talks: 65.975 (+ 0.246)
KENDRICK LAMAR – Poetic Justice f/Drake: 62.452 (+ 0.006)
BLAKE SHELTON – Sure Be Cool If You Did: 61.626 (+ 0.906)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD – Two Black Cadillacs: 60.691 (+ 0.162)
DRAKE – Started From The Bottom: 51.525 (+ 1.923)
LIL WAYNE – Love Me f/Drake & Future: 50.763 (+ 0.902)
FUN. – Carry On: 49.408 (+ 0.569)
LADY ANTEBELLUM – Downtown: 45.648 (+ 0.495)
OLLY MURS – Troublemaker f/Flo Rida: 39.384 (+ 0.194)
MUSE – Madness: 34.477 (+ 0.480)
KREWELLA – Alive: 32.577 (+ 0.577)
ONE DIRECTION – Kiss You: 25.919 (- 0.156)
PINK – Just Give Me A Reason: 25.107 (+ 2.240)
FALL OUT BOY – My Songs Know What You Did…: 22.315 (+ 0.392)
DEMI LOVATO – Heart Attack: 22.007 (+ 2.048)
NE-YO – Forever Now: 17.369
BAAUER – Harlem Shake: 10.142 (+ 0.187)
LUMINEERS – Stubborn Love: 9.685 (+ 0.098)
JUSTIN BIEBER – Right Here f/Drake: 8.255 (+ 0.272)
CHER LLOYD – With Ur Love f/Juicy J: 8.112 (+ 0.290)
PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Gone, Gone, Gone: 7.629 (+ 0.296)
MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Can't Hold Us f/Ray Dalton: 7.358 (+ 0.319)
BRAD PAISLEY – Beat This Summer: 5.680 (+ 1.036)
TAYLOR SWIFT – 22: 5.436 (+ 0.480)
C. AGUILERA & B. SHELTON – Just A Fool: 3.232
JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Mirrors: 0.855
CIARA – Body Party: 0.728

[Quixotic Music Lover]

Here is my top 5 for March 23rd:

1. Harlem Shake
2. Thrift Shop
3. When I Was Your Man
4. Stay
5. I Knew You Were Trouble

I am betting that this will be "Harlem Shake's" last week at #1, with "Thrift Shop" taking over for at least another 2-3 weeks (its' big lead in streaming, especially on-demand streaming will help keep it at #1). I feel that "Stay" has a better shot than "When I Was Your Man" of taking over from "Thrift Shop".

[RadioBeatz]

Hopefully Thrift Shop returns to #1 and then When I Was Your Man or Stay after that.

[Au$tin]

I just don't see "Thrift Shop" overtaking "Harlem Shake" this week. However, this may be "Harlem Shake"'s final week at #1. Its digital sales are decreasing a lot faster than I would've originally guessed they would have. "Thrift Shop" will most likely take back #1 next week (the 30th). Then April will be a nice battle between Rihanna and Bruno Mars. Quite exciting too, since both songs are so left field for both artists and the typical mainstream sound.

Then I also wouldn't be surprised if P!nk became a powerhouse and a possible #1 hit within the coming weeks. "Just Give Me a Reason" is becoming a monster hit world wide, it just entered the top 10 on US iTunes this morning despite still being so low in airplay*. Its airplay is rapidly increasing too, though, and I have a strong feeling that it will do very well in streaming.

*Side note: "Try" only managed to peak at #7 on iTunes. "Just Give Me a Reason" already sits at #8.

[cesarams]

FRIDAY'S UPDATE:
TOP 20:

1. TAYLOR SWIFT – I Knew You Were Trouble: 182.487 (- 2.376)
2. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Thrift Shop f/Wanz: 174.334 (+ 1.019)
3. SWEDISH HOUSE MAFIA – Don't You Worry Child: 153.671 (- 1.062)
4. BRUNO MARS – Locked Out Of Heaven: 148.834 (- 1.715)
5. MAROON 5 – Daylight: 147.617 (+ 0.730)
6. WILL.I.AM & BRITNEY SPEARS – Scream And Shout: 142.093 (- 0.569)
7. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Suit & Tie f/JAY Z: 135.730 (+ 2.823)
8. LUMINEERS – Ho Hey: 121.848 (- 0.885)
9. BRUNO MARS – When I Was Your Man: 121.835 (+ 2.589)
10. CALVIN HARRIS – Sweet Nothing f/Florence Welch: 107.204 (+ 0.532)
11. KELLY CLARKSON – Catch My Breath: 100.285 (+ 0.214)
12. PINK – Try: 94.871 (- 1.096)
13. IMAGINE DRAGONS – It's Time: 85.520 (- 0.238)
14. RIHANNA – Pour It Up: 81.913 (- 0.177)
15. MUMFORD & SONS – I Will Wait: 80.830 (+ 1.170)
16. A$AP ROCKY – F**kin Problems f/Drake: 76.949 (+ 0.697)
17. RIHANNA – Stay f/Mikky Ekko: 74.036 (+ 1.933)
18. PITBULL – Feel This Moment f/C. Aguilera: 70.077 (+ 1.449) ▲
19. MAROON 5 – One More Night: 69.053 (- 0.839) ▼
20. TIM MCGRAW – One Of Those Nights: 67.372 (- 0.414) ▲

OTHERS:

JUSTIN BIEBER – Beauty And A Beat f/N. Minaj: 66.182 (- 2.000)
OF MONSTERS AND MEN – Little Talks: 66.162 (+ 0.187)
BLAKE SHELTON – Sure Be Cool If You Did: 62.753 (+ 1.127)
KENDRICK LAMAR – Poetic Justice f/Drake: 62.284 (- 0.168)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD – Two Black Cadillacs: 61.064 (+ 0.373)
DRAKE – Started From The Bottom: 53.037 (+ 1.512)
LIL WAYNE – Love Me f/Drake & Future: 51.322 (+ 0.559)
FUN. – Carry On: 49.806 (+ 0.398)
LADY ANTEBELLUM – Downtown: 46.202 (+ 0.554)
OLLY MURS – Troublemaker f/Flo Rida: 39.410 (+ 0.026)
MUSE – Madness: 34.588 (+ 0.111)
KREWELLA – Alive: 33.018 (+ 0.441)
PINK – Just Give Me A Reason: 27.297 (+ 2.190)
ONE DIRECTION – Kiss You: 25.604 (- 0.315)
EMELI SANDE – Next To Me: 25.235
TAMAR BRAXTON – Love And War: 24.630
DEMI LOVATO – Heart Attack: 24.084 (+ 2.077)
FALL OUT BOY – My Songs Know What You Did…: 22.920 (+ 0.605)
BAAUER – Harlem Shake: 10.338 (+ 0.196)
LUMINEERS – Stubborn Love: 9.922 (+ 0.237)
JUSTIN BIEBER – Right Here f/Drake: 8.499 (+ 0.244)
CHER LLOYD – With Ur Love f/Juicy J: 8.112 (=)
PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Gone, Gone, Gone: 8.045 (+ 0.416)
MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Can't Hold Us f/Ray Dalton: 7.628 (+ 0.270)
BRAD PAISLEY – Beat This Summer: 6.740 (+ 1.060)
TAYLOR SWIFT – 22: 6.036 (+ 0.600)
CIARA – Body Party: 0.834 (+ 0.106)

[HolidayGuy]

"Suit & Tie" has turned into a hit, after all. Good for JT.

[Deleted]

I know that this thread starts up a full week early (and sometimes even before the current chart is out) to use daily airplay to predict next weeks chart.

I wonder how much of a predictor are the airplay updates now that the chart has more emphasis on streaming?

[HolidayGuy]

^Not very much. :)

It's also been that way because airplay is the most immediate info there is, in terms of actual numbers to play around with (even though Mediabase numbers differ largely from BDS numbers).

[Quixotic Music Lover]

Mar 8, 2013 9:56:13 GMT -5 @2m said:

I know that this thread starts up a full week early (and sometimes even before the current chart is out) to use daily airplay to predict next weeks chart.

I wonder how much of a predictor are the airplay updates now that the chart has more emphasis on streaming?

Not a very good predictor as long as passive streaming has the current weighting. If Billboard tweaks the formula to lessen the impact of YouTube streams, airplay may yet again be a useful predictor.

[jebsib]

Airplay is now only a helpful guide. It provides a good foundation: If a song tanks immediately at radio, its exposure to the itunes / streaming crowd would be significantly blunted and thus effected in that area.

[NeRD]

It feels like so many songs are dominating right now. So much competition.

I also feel that Stay may carry a slight edge over When I Was Your Man because of the new Youtube formula as well as it selling better digitally. It would be nice if both hit #1 though. They're both fantastic songs.

[SPRΞΞ]

If Stay hits #1, will it be her 14th?

[hitseeker.]

^13th, or 11th if you don't count features.

[NeRD]

Mar 8, 2013 12:50:25 GMT -5 hitseeker. said:

^13th, or 11th if you don't count features.

Crazy.


She'll be coming for Mariah's record within the next era. :'(

[SPRΞΞ]

That will be a fun Hot 100 thread.

[areyoureadytojump]

Mar 8, 2013 12:50:25 GMT -5 hitseeker. said:

^13th, or 11th if you don't count features.

We count features here.

[josh]

Mar 8, 2013 14:35:26 GMT -5 areyoureadytojump said:

Mar 8, 2013 12:50:25 GMT -5 hitseeker. said:

^13th, or 11th if you don't count features.

We count features here.

I don't.

[charismatic]

Woo 70 millions ai for Pitbull's latest smash hit!
So happy that the general public is still here for his music!

Thanks for posting the charts!
:)

[Ballroom Blitzed]

Here's an interesting interview in which Silvio Pietrolungo discusses the chart methodology. I don't know if it has very much that hasn't been mentioned in the Hot 100 threads, but I thought it might be interesting to share.

[cesarams]

SATURDAY'S UPDATE:
TOP 20:

1. TAYLOR SWIFT – I Knew You Were Trouble: 180.478 (- 2.009)
2. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Thrift Shop f/Wanz: 175.165 (+ 0.831)
3. SWEDISH HOUSE MAFIA – Don't You Worry Child: 152.222 (- 1.449)
4. MAROON 5 – Daylight: 148.884 (+ 1.267) ▲
5. BRUNO MARS – Locked Out Of Heaven: 147.510 (- 1.324) ▼
6. WILL.I.AM & BRITNEY SPEARS – Scream And Shout: 141.208 (- 0.885)
7. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Suit & Tie f/JAY Z: 138.583 (+ 2.853)
8. BRUNO MARS – When I Was Your Man: 125.526 (+ 3.691) ▲
9. LUMINEERS – Ho Hey: 121.074 (- 0.774) ▼
10. CALVIN HARRIS – Sweet Nothing f/Florence Welch: 108.306 (+ 1.102)
11. KELLY CLARKSON – Catch My Breath: 101.229 (+ 0.944)
12. PINK – Try: 93.685 (- 1.186)
13. IMAGINE DRAGONS – It's Time: 85.764 (- 0.244)
14. RIHANNA – Pour It Up: 82.263 (+ 0.350)
15. MUMFORD & SONS – I Will Wait: 81.957 (+ 1.127)
16. A$AP ROCKY – F**kin Problems f/Drake: 76.574 (- 0.375)
17. RIHANNA – Stay f/Mikky Ekko: 75.983 (+ 1.947)
18. PITBULL – Feel This Moment f/C. Aguilera: 71.574 (+ 1.497)
19. MAROON 5 – One More Night: 68.607 (- 0.446)
20. TIM MCGRAW – One Of Those Nights: 66.996 (- 0.376)

OTHERS:

OF MONSTERS AND MEN – Little Talks: 66.108 (- 0.054)
JUSTIN BIEBER – Beauty And A Beat f/N. Minaj: 64.407 (- 1.775)
BLAKE SHELTON – Sure Be Cool If You Did: 64.120 (+ 1.367)
KENDRICK LAMAR – Poetic Justice f/Drake: 62.620 (- 0.336)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD – Two Black Cadillacs: 61.100 (+ 0.036)
DRAKE – Started From The Bottom: 53.805 (+ 0.768)
LIL WAYNE – Love Me f/Drake & Future: 52.163 (+ 0.841)
FUN. – Carry On: 50.324 (+ 0.518)
LADY ANTEBELLUM – Downtown: 46.768 (+ 0.566)
OLLY MURS – Troublemaker f/Flo Rida: 39.239 (- 0.171)
MUSE – Madness: 34.766 (+ 0.178)
KREWELLA – Alive: 33.521 (+ 0.503)
PINK – Just Give Me A Reason: 29.785 (+ 2.488)
DEMI LOVATO – Heart Attack: 26.297 (+ 2.213)
EMELI SANDE – Next To Me: 25.918 (+ 0.683)
ONE DIRECTION – Kiss You: 25.628 (+ 0.024)
FALL OUT BOY – My Songs Know What You Did…: 23.214 (+ 0.294)
ICONA POP – I Love It f/Charli XCX: 22.416
TRAIN – Mermaid: 15.534
IMAGINE DRAGONS – Radioactive: 14.810
BAAUER – Harlem Shake: 10.175 (- 0.163)
LUMINEERS – Stubborn Love: 9.993 (+ 0.071)
JUSTIN BIEBER – Right Here f/Drake: 8.642 (+ 0.143)
CHER LLOYD – With Ur Love f/Juicy J: 8.491 (+ 0.379)
PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Gone, Gone, Gone: 8.428 (+ 0.383)
BRAD PAISLEY – Beat This Summer: 8.406 (+ 1.666)
MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Can't Hold Us f/Ray Dalton: 7.959 (+ 0.331)
TAYLOR SWIFT – 22: 6.718 (+ 0.682)
KELLY ROWLAND – Ice f/Lil Wayne: 4.004
ZEDD – Clarity f/Foxes: 2.375
MARIAH CAREY – Almost Home: 0.463
ASAF AVIDAN – One Day/Reckoning Song: 0.007

[cesarams]

Mar 8, 2013 9:56:13 GMT -5 @2m said:

I know that this thread starts up a full week early (and sometimes even before the current chart is out) to use daily airplay to predict next weeks chart.

I wonder how much of a predictor are the airplay updates now that the chart has more emphasis on streaming?

It's still a big part of the formula. YouTube ain't have all that power, it's just Harlem Shake that makes it looks like that.

[Rocky]

ASAF AVIDAN – One Day/Reckoning Song: 0.007
:'( Oh, if somehow this becomes a minor hit, my life would be complete.

[Quixotic Music Lover]

Mar 8, 2013 17:53:19 GMT -5 Ballroom Blitzed said:

Here's an interesting interview in which Silvio Pietrolungo discusses the chart methodology. I don't know if it has very much that hasn't been mentioned in the Hot 100 threads, but I thought it might be interesting to share.

The interesting part of the article was the description of his work week. Doesn't sound like much of a life to me!

[HolidayGuy]

^Thanks for posting- good, informative article. :)

[cesarams]

SUNDAY'S UPDATE:
TOP 20:

1. TAYLOR SWIFT – I Knew You Were Trouble: 178.033 (- 2.445)
2. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Thrift Shop f/Wanz: 175.544 (+ 0.379)
3. SWEDISH HOUSE MAFIA – Don't You Worry Child: 151.388 (- 0.834)
4. MAROON 5 – Daylight: 149.827 (+ 0.943)
5. BRUNO MARS – Locked Out Of Heaven: 145.833 (- 1.677)
6. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Suit & Tie f/JAY Z: 140.915 (+ 2.332) ▲
7. WILL.I.AM & BRITNEY SPEARS – Scream And Shout: 140.463 (- 0.745) ▼
8. BRUNO MARS – When I Was Your Man: 128.464 (+ 2.938)
9. LUMINEERS – Ho Hey: 119.615 (- 1.459)
10. CALVIN HARRIS – Sweet Nothing f/Florence Welch: 108.682 (+ 0.376)
11. KELLY CLARKSON – Catch My Breath: 101.643 (+ 0.414)
12. PINK – Try: 91.602 (- 2.083)
13. IMAGINE DRAGONS – It's Time: 85.660 (- 0.104)
14. MUMFORD & SONS – I Will Wait: 83.271 (+ 1.314) ▲
15. RIHANNA – Pour It Up: 82.654 (+ 0.391) ▼
16. RIHANNA – Stay f/Mikky Ekko: 78.312 (+ 2.329) ▲
17. A$AP ROCKY – F**kin Problems f/Drake: 76.501 (- 0.073) ▼
18. PITBULL – Feel This Moment f/C. Aguilera: 72.278 (+ 0.704)
19. MAROON 5 – One More Night: 68.001 (- 0.606)
20. TIM MCGRAW – One Of Those Nights: 66.409 (- 0.587)

OTHERS:

OF MONSTERS AND MEN – Little Talks: 66.102 (- 0.006)
BLAKE SHELTON – Sure Be Cool If You Did: 64.608 (+ 0.488)
KENDRICK LAMAR – Poetic Justice f/Drake: 61.835 (- 0.785)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD – Two Black Cadillacs: 61.803 (+ 0.703)
DRAKE – Started From The Bottom: 55.030 (+ 1.225)
LIL WAYNE – Love Me f/Drake & Future: 53.078 (+ 0.915)
FUN. – Carry On: 50.883 (+ 0.559)
LADY ANTEBELLUM – Downtown: 47.563 (+ 0.795)
OLLY MURS – Troublemaker f/Flo Rida: 39.452 (+ 0.213)
MUSE – Madness: 35.239 (+ 0.473)
KREWELLA – Alive: 34.186 (+ 0.665)
PINK – Just Give Me A Reason: 32.080 (+ 2.295)
DEMI LOVATO – Heart Attack: 29.357 (+ 3.060)
EMELI SANDE – Next To Me: 26.635 (+ 0.717)
ONE DIRECTION – Kiss You: 25.249 (- 0.379)
FALL OUT BOY – My Songs Know What You Did…: 23.804 (+ 0.590)
ICONA POP – I Love It f/Charli XCX: 23.682 (+ 1.266)
BRAD PAISLEY – Beat This Summer: 10.117 (+ 1.711)
BAAUER – Harlem Shake: 10.109 (- 0.066)
LUMINEERS – Stubborn Love: 10.093 (+ 0.100)
JUSTIN BIEBER – Right Here f/Drake: 9.059 (+ 0.417)
PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Gone, Gone, Gone: 8.900 (+ 0.472)
CHER LLOYD – With Ur Love f/Juicy J: 8.674 (+ 0.183)
MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Can't Hold Us f/Ray Dalton: 8.525 (+ 0.566)
TAYLOR SWIFT – 22: 7.797 (+ 1.079)
CIARA – Body Party: 1.358
SATURDAYS – What About Us: 0.024
NICOLE SCHERZINGER – Boomerang: 0

[HolidayGuy]

"Heart Attack" sure is moving. "Give Your Heart a Break" really opened the radio doors for Ms. Lovato.

Good gain for "Just Give Me a Reason." And "Next to Me" is chugging along nicely.

[areyoureadytojump]

Mar 9, 2013 9:05:37 GMT -5 Quixotic Music Lover said:

Mar 8, 2013 17:53:19 GMT -5 Ballroom Blitzed said:

Here's an interesting interview in which Silvio Pietrolungo discusses the chart methodology. I don't know if it has very much that hasn't been mentioned in the Hot 100 threads, but I thought it might be interesting to share.

The interesting part of the article was the description of his work week. Doesn't sound like much of a life to me!

Yes. I was told working at BB is exhausting and the pay sucks.

[nivekwriter1]

Other airplay updates (03/10/2013)

LITTLE BIG TOWN - Tornado: 65.404 (+ 0.891)
HUNTER HAYES - Somebody's Heartb...: 57.855 (+ 1.119)
KENNY CHESNEY - Pirate Flag: 41.538 (+ 0.472)
RIHANNA - Loveeeeeee Song f...: 33.239 (+ 0.471)
JONN HART - Who Booty f/iamSU: 28.613 (+ 0.684)
RASCAL FLATTS - Changed: 22.277 (+ 1.028)
ICONA POP - I Love It f/Charl...: 22.170 (+ 1.198)
NE-YO - Forever Now: 18.884 (+ 0.733)
JASON ALDEAN - 1994: 12.156 (+ 1.074)
JUSTIN BIEBER - All Around The Wo...: 11.605 (+ 1.306)
ONEREPUBLIC - If I Lose Myself: 6.698 (+ 0.044)
ELLIE GOULDING - Figure 8: 3.625 (+ 0.021)
AVICII - I Could Be The One f/Ricky Romero: 3.372 (+ 0.038)

[jebsib]

No wonder the little typos have been creeping in over the last three years at BB

[brucelover]

Slay, Demetria. I think this could be a Top 5 hit for her (Hot 100).