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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2013 20:35:13 GMT -5
At this point I feel like the voting patterns are the most concrete piece of evidence at our disposal. I know in the last game it became fairly obvious who scum was by day 4 due to them not voting for each other and limiting their suspious comments regarding each other. Tt could be something similar come this round with both scum teams. I'm going to look into it more within the next few days.
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on Apr 25, 2013 6:34:43 GMT -5
Kurt it depends on the person. My vote is on myself at the moment, but if I had to move my vote elsewhere right now...hmm. Personally I think Jason is a more guaranteed bet for mafia (lol at chica and Jason still tiptoeing around mentioning each other btw) Chica has been fairly quiet and I have had nothing to say about gameplay or moves regarding Chica. The subsequent posts on D-4 are not helping to change that. I don't see that as suspicious - it is just more of 'what else can I say?' I agree. I still am not clear on the logic of this spreadsheet and how it was created (and you may have explained it before, but I missed it). Could you give a brief explanation again? I find it an interesting play, but as a scientist, I need to know the assumptions that have gone into it. Plus, did you change it based on D-3/N-3 events? I cannot comment on Max connections to any of these people since he was eliminated D-1. I am not sure I see the Kurt/Nick connection, but the Kurt/Krhazy connection is supported through their 'tag-team' against Drag. Clearly, I disagree with this combination. But I believe Jungle is scum (again, not sure on the faction). Chica and Nick - questionable in my minds. I don't have enough information to form a better than 50/50 guess on those people. Drag - still believe he is Town for now, similar to your feelings above.
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on Apr 25, 2013 6:38:18 GMT -5
At this point I feel like the voting patterns are the most concrete piece of evidence at our disposal. I know in the last game it became fairly obvious who scum was by day 4 due to them not voting for each other and limiting their suspious comments regarding each other. Tt could be something similar come this round with both scum teams. I'm going to look into it more within the next few days. I posted voting patterns in my post earlier. I have quoted it below. (The emphasis was added by me because I was curious about Sean/Jungle). DAY ONE (JOSH BANDWAGON): Josh: Spidey, Codex, Slizzard, Cynthia, Sean, Kunt, and Max DAY ONE (CODEX BANDWAGON): Codex: Kunt, Cynthia, Nightfire, Josh, Nick, Spidey, and SeanDAY ONE (END) Nightfire: Kurt, Codex, Jason, Max, Kunt, Josh, Rocky, Landmarx, Spidey, WotUNeed Not Voting: SeanDAY TWO (END) Landmarx: Krhazy, Rocky, Kunt, Josh, Nick, Kurt, Jungle, Drag, Cynthia DAY THREE – END Spidey: Chica, Jason, Josh, Drag, Rocky, Jungle, Kunt
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Post by K. on Apr 25, 2013 6:48:53 GMT -5
I'm tired of this game. Nothing new to add right now.
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Post by K. on Apr 25, 2013 6:58:11 GMT -5
Well, one thing. Why is Drag putting himself at L-1 so absolving? He was already at L-2, with Kunt probably about to revote and half a dozen others who hadn't yet voted. I think the potential upside of everybody now assuming he is Town far outweighs the potential downside of getting lynched like ten minutes earlier than he might have otherwise.
I'd also like to note that none of the people who are currently suspected of being mafia (Jason, Chica, Jungle?) are currently voting for Drag, nor did any of them vote for him last time. Moreover, given Jason's current vote, Drag makes much more sense as the third mafia person than Jungle anyway. And Jason is now defending him. And Drag still hasn't explained his contradiction.
Seriously people, what more do you want?
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nick64
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Post by nick64 on Apr 25, 2013 8:06:19 GMT -5
Mostly posting to avoid prod. I still see Mafia being Chica-Jason-Jungle. I thought Drag and Krhazy were both werewolves, but I don't think Krhazy would just call out his partner like that. Krhazy may be one of the Mafia, with one of the others (most likely Jungle) being a werewolf. Or Rocky could just be fooling all of us...
I'll keep my vote at the moment.
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nick64
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Post by nick64 on Apr 25, 2013 8:08:40 GMT -5
Forgot about Kurt. I could see him being Mafia as well.
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Post by Rocky on Apr 25, 2013 17:32:04 GMT -5
I'll stay by my original vote, Kurt. Hope this will finally be a mafia lynch.
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Kurt
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Post by Kurt on Apr 25, 2013 18:26:32 GMT -5
zzz is this game over yet jw
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2013 20:33:12 GMT -5
I have a feeling we'll catch scum tonight. If we don't though, it's over for us townies. But yeah I'm bored of this game.
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ChicaCherry콜라
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Post by ChicaCherry콜라 on Apr 25, 2013 21:44:25 GMT -5
I'm not sure of the Kurt as scum theory quite yet. Drag, possibly. A little wary of Jungle as well. Both for reasons other people have mentioned countless time. This game has me at such a loss I just don't even know.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2013 5:14:48 GMT -5
going to dentist today. hope to be doped up on lots of drugs later. i.e., avoiding a prod right now because i don't plan on being functional by this afternoon. if i am i will be highly pissed answer to jason, the connections chart was based on kunt's summaries of days one through three. it took into account any arguments people may have had or times when they defended one another (ex., i'm accusing you of scum, therefore it is highly likely we have no connection to each other). more in depth explanation on page 66, i think. the one where i keep up with role claims i didn't post, but it's a pretty straightforward list and easy enough for anyone to calculate since so many townies are dead now. that one just depends on whether or not one believes drag and sean/jungle. i lean toward believing drag at the least; drag's claim was belated and reminded me of last game where he made the fatal mistake of not claiming until it was too late to change anyone's minds. his l-1 vote seemed out of frustration. and he's like, the fourth or fifth person to try to suicide (how many times have i asked to be lynched now?). landmarx did the same, spidey asked to be lynched b/c he got tired of being called scum, and rocky already told us straight up that come may he's out. scum isn't going to do that, scum wants us frustrated and tired and ready to just get this game over with b/c that gives them the upper hand...all they have to do is wait it out. jungle is throwing us off b/c he entered midgame but it was sean who claimed (very drunkenly) and really we should have decided how we feel about that before even starting to question drag. i certainly did not doubt sean at first so i'm starting to think that any time i spent doubting jungle has been a lot of time wasted. i don't know if this post is fully coherent but my tooth hurts too much for me to care right now :(
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on Apr 26, 2013 9:02:09 GMT -5
Cynthia - I feel like we have been on similar paths of misfortune of late. I had a root canal this past Monday. :( And now I am waiting for an appointment to go and get fitted for a crown next week. I have also worn down my bicuspid on my right side, and I fear more dental work is in my future. Expensive and painful - not a good combination. Good luck at the dentist.
Back to the game - for me, Jungle jumped to the top of suspicions with his quick votes on D-4 and then, reading back on D-3, Josh, Kunt, and Nick expressed strong suspicions of Jungle. Of course, if Jungle is scum, he couldn't kill two people. But he was a bit antagonistic with Josh, and he was also trying to discredit a bit Kunt's summary-style posts as not being helpful (which, I actually found very useful and I think others did too). So, those things combined make me stick with my vote.
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Post by junglefever on Apr 26, 2013 9:17:25 GMT -5
Hm? I don't recall calling Kunt's summary style posts not helpful, I was calling people who simply isolate dead people's posts and don't analyze them unhelpful. I actually said that Kunt was the only person that even raised any sort of real potential scumtells from my play.
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on Apr 26, 2013 10:14:50 GMT -5
^I took your post isolation comment to refer to what was done today and also what Kunt was doing, which was essentially that for all members (not just dead ones), but he added some analysis (more editorializing ). So, fair enough.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2013 10:47:13 GMT -5
It seems like we're a stand still at the moment. Like Cynthia, I can't really figure Jungle out (I suppose him jumping in for Sean midgame has thrown me off). I'm going to keep my vote on Kurt for now.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2013 11:44:17 GMT -5
jason - no luck today, will have to try again monday or tuesday :( that is so weird that we are having similar situations at the same time (second molar on the top right is cracked and i'd rather just have it extracted than fixed; first molar on the top right got pushed out of alignment but hopefully can be straightened; and i have what i guess would be an abscess on the second molar on the bottom left, but the pocket strangely hasn't given me any problems at all - the left side is the one i can chew on). long story short, my mouth is a fucking disaster right now :( if we are going to have this kind of synchronicity going on could you have something good happen like winning the lottery or getting laid within the next month?
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on Apr 26, 2013 12:52:47 GMT -5
^I'll try to get some good news Cynthia. I had a root canal done on my upper right molar (#3) in late 2011. A f***ing disaster. Long story short, the dentist who performed the root canal should never have done the procedure. The tooth was SO infected (found out after the fact) that it probably should have been pulled. The hygeinist even commented it was the most blood and pus she had ever seen from a tooth. However, instead I go to endure 2.5 hours of drilling in complete agony, followed by a night of horrific pain, and then a referral to a endodontist the next day, who told me she would stay after hours to fix the tooth (6 PM - 11 PM at night). The ensuing 2+ months after that included not being able to eat on that side and then two cracked crowns. This week's root canal was on the upper left (tooth #14 - i.e., same tooth but the upper left). That tooth I think was impacted by a shell in a clam I bit into in February. No issues for a few weeks and then really bad, nagging pain late March - early April. This root canal went MUCH smoother and now it is patched up but I need to get a crown for it. What really gets me too is that I take care of my teeth really well. Not like a fanatic, but I brush twice a day and floss 4-5x per week. People always say my teeth look healthy and great, and then this happens. Personally, I also think I grind my teeth (the dentist noted this too, which is why I am worried about my bicuspid since it is chipped and pitted). Good luck with everything though Cynthia and power through! :)
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nick64
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Post by nick64 on Apr 27, 2013 0:22:36 GMT -5
Hmm... Jason and Chica both just expressed their suspicions of Jungle... They could both be lying, but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt. I think Kurt would be the next best choice as a Mafia member, so I'll switch to him.
Vote: Kurt
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2013 1:13:07 GMT -5
That puts Kurt at L-2, right?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2013 1:23:40 GMT -5
Day 4 Begins
Deadline has been set for 04.28.13 11:59PM EST.
It takes 6/10 votes to lynch!
Day 4: Vote Count 5 Drag: Krhazy, Kurt Kurt: Rocky, Jungle, Drag, Nick Jungle: Jason, Heartbreak Jason: Cynthia Not Voting: Chica
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Post by K. on Apr 27, 2013 8:04:30 GMT -5
posting just to avoid prod. Hoping to be on later today.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2013 16:13:26 GMT -5
I'm thinking of switching my vote to Kurt, since the deadline is soon and honestly at this point I see him just as likely being scum as I ever did Jungle. I wish we had more to go off of, but we don't.
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Post by Rocky on Apr 27, 2013 16:42:03 GMT -5
Don't know what to do. :s Should I switch to Jungle or not? I'm starting to doubt that Kurt is scum.
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Kurt
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Post by Kurt on Apr 27, 2013 16:56:51 GMT -5
Still don't see any reason to move off of Drag, so here we are. Funny that no one seems to be actually giving a reason as to why I might be scum when they vote for me, just that "I'm the most likely suspicious person," and no one pointed out anything suspicious about my posts after Drag pulled them up on the last page. Nick in particular has said absolutely nothing regarding suspicions of me, even going as far as debating voting between Cynthia/Jason/Chica, but has jumped aboard now that there's a bandwagon. Hmmmm.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2013 17:01:22 GMT -5
Still don't see any reason to move off of Drag, so here we are. Funny that no one seems to be actually giving a reason as to why I might be scum when they vote for me, just that "I'm the most likely suspicious person," and no one pointed out anything suspicious about my posts after Drag pulled them up on the last page. I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO DO ANYMORE DON'T EXPECT ME TO MAKE RATIONAL DECISIONS!
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2013 17:01:45 GMT -5
I apologize for yelling.
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ChicaCherry콜라
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Post by ChicaCherry콜라 on Apr 27, 2013 17:17:56 GMT -5
Posting more tonight hopefully but I don't wanna forget about this. Apparently Kurt is looking the most suspicious? I need to try and understand that one.
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nick64
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Post by nick64 on Apr 27, 2013 18:34:44 GMT -5
Sorry Kurt for not explaining. For the most part, I'm just doubting Jungle's affiliation with Chica and Jason. I have a feeling those two are on a scum team, and I want to figure out who the third member is before lynching either of them. They both have recently expressed suspicions of Jungle, so I'm going to back off him for a while. I can't recall them saying much about you, so I picked you as my next target. I'll switch to either of them if we can't reach a consensus before the deadline.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2013 18:41:00 GMT -5
Day 4 Begins
Deadline has been set for 04.28.13 11:59PM EST.
It takes 6/10 votes to lynch!
Day 4: Vote Count 6 Drag: Krhazy, Kurt Kurt: Rocky, Jungle, Drag, Nick Jungle: Jason, Heartbreak Jason: Cynthia Not Voting: Chica
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