Marv
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Post by Marv on Aug 1, 2013 0:09:09 GMT -5
Don't forget she's hosting After Midnite tonight & tomorrow night!!!!
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Cody Wants Out...
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Post by Cody Wants Out... on Aug 1, 2013 20:52:26 GMT -5
@14887fan, what makes you think that we might not get another single after this?
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Aug 1, 2013 21:29:08 GMT -5
Is this going to get blocked? As the mediabase chart looks now, Brett Eldredge has over a 2 million AI lead on See You Again, so my question is, will SYA be able to hold on long enough for Randy, Hunter and Brett to fall down the chart for will she settle for another #2?
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churchchoir
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Post by churchchoir on Aug 1, 2013 22:15:58 GMT -5
^I find it very difficult to imagine Carrie getting blocked. Randy and Hunter will be finished their business in the top 2 by next Monday, 8/12, for sure. There's a sizely audience gap on both charts between Carrie Underwood and Keith Urban...lager than the gap between Carrie Underwood and Brett Eldredge. As of Monday's Billboard Airplay update the Brett-Carrie gap is 1.504 million AIs and the Carrie-Keith gap 2.352 million AIs. "See You Again" has been posting stronger daily gains on Mediabase than "Little Bit of Everything" and sales for LBOE are about equal to Carrie's sales, even though Carrie is four singles deep into her album and Keith Urban's song is a lead single. Also, SYA has been #1 on the Bullseye Callout America chart for four weeks now and the single should earn its Gold certification next week, so there's certainly a lot of hype around the song. There's no reason to suspect it will suddenly falter and miss #1 or get passed up/blocked by a larger hit because there simply isn't a significantly larger hit near her on the chart. "See You Again" has been posting huge gains ever since reaching the top 10 without showing any signs of weakening at all. Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if the only reason for Carrie's "delay" outside the top 10 were that Arista Nashville asked stations to hold off on powering the song up for a few weeks while they did the final pushing for Brad Paisley's "Beat This Summer."
I think Carrie's song is very formidable in terms of competition on the charts. I'd say there's absolutely no way "LBOE" passes Carrie before she hits #1 and there are no other songs even within "spitting" distance of Carrie on the chart, so she has no one to worry about. Since Randy and Hunter will be clearing out soon, that only leaves Brett Eldredge's "Don't Ya" in the way of SYA topping the charts. I don't see what there is to worry about in regards to Eldredge, though, since there is absolutely no way Brett's song will get more than one week at the top of the chart due to how long it's been out (since last October) and how shallow and unremarkable it is. Brett's debut album "Bring You Back" hits stores next Tuesday, so his song will be nearing peak sales, airplay, and overall hype very soon. I think he will get his week at #1 on both charts the weekend of August 17-18 and then fall rather quickly, as this really doesn't seem like a song with a lot of staying power on radio. "Don't Ya" may be completely forgotten by the end of August and, if Eldredge's album doesn't contain any solid material, Brett himself may be forgotten by mid-September. Carrie will then take over #1 uncontested. There's nothing to worry about at all the way I see it. Conjecturing that Carrie will miss #1 at this point is probably less logical than posing the question of whether Carrie's song will block Keith Urban from #1.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 1, 2013 22:38:39 GMT -5
^I find it very difficult to imagine Carrie getting blocked. Randy and Hunter will be finished their business in the top 2 by next Monday, 8/12, for sure. There's a sizely audience gap on both charts between Carrie Underwood and Keith Urban...lager than the gap between Carrie Underwood and Brett Eldredge. As of Monday's Billboard Airplay update the Brett-Carrie gap is 1.504 million AIs and the Carrie-Keith gap 2.352 million AIs. "See You Again" has been posting stronger daily gains on Mediabase than "Little Bit of Everything" and sales for LBOE are about equal to Carrie's sales, even though Carrie is four singles deep into her album and Keith Urban's song is a lead single. Also, SYA has been #1 on the Bullseye Callout America chart for four weeks now and the single should earn its Gold certification next week, so there's certainly a lot of hype around the song. There's no reason to suspect it will suddenly falter and miss #1 or get passed up/blocked by a larger hit because there simply isn't a significantly larger hit near her on the chart. "See You Again" has been posting huge gains ever since reaching the top 10 without showing any signs of weakening at all. Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if the only reason for Carrie's "delay" outside the top 10 were that Arista Nashville asked stations to hold off on powering the song up for a few weeks while they did the final pushing for Brad Paisley's "Beat This Summer." I think Carrie's song is very formidable in terms of competition on the charts. I'd say there's absolutely no way "LBOE" passes Carrie before she hits #1 and there are no other songs even within "spitting" distance of Carrie on the chart, so she has no one to worry about. Since Randy and Hunter will be clearing out soon, that only leaves Brett Eldredge's "Don't Ya" in the way of SYA topping the charts. I don't see what there is to worry about in regards to Eldredge, though, since there is absolutely no way Brett's song will get more than one week at the top of the chart due to how long it's been out (since last October) and how shallow and unremarkable it is. Brett's debut album "Bring You Back" hits stores next Tuesday, so his song will be nearing peak sales, airplay, and overall hype very soon. I think he will get his week at #1 on both charts the weekend of August 17-18 and then fall rather quickly, as this really doesn't seem like a song with a lot of staying power on radio. "Don't Ya" may be completely forgotten by the end of August and, if Eldredge's album doesn't contain any solid material, Brett himself may be forgotten by mid-September. Carrie will then take over #1 uncontested. There's nothing to worry about at all the way I see it. Conjecturing that Carrie will miss #1 at this point is probably less logical than posing the question of whether Carrie's song will block Keith Urban from #1. Carrie's been doing well of late but Keith out-gained her easily in the Tuesday and Wednesday Mediabase updates. On Monday (aka, Tuesday update), Carrie gained over 500k but Keith gained more than 1 million. Then in yesterday's update, Carrie actually lost 88k while Keith gained another 660k. Carrie out-gained him by a little today, but I wouldn't say she's pulling away at all. Now, I do think Carrie will get to #1, and before Keith as well, but she's not pulling away. Also, I highly, highly doubt Carrie will be blocking anybody. I don't think SYA will spend more than a week at the top. It's been moving up decently of late, but it's still needed 18 weeks to hit #6, which is just a tad off her usual pace, whereas Keith has screamed up to #7 in just 11 weeks. There may be decent gaps between Brett and Carrie and between Carrie and Keith, but Keith is a full 9 million ahead of the next logical #1, FGL's "Round Here", and he's only pulling away right now. I'd bet on Keith scoring 2-3 weeks at #1. Carrie will probably get her week at the top but this isn't a song that's gonna block Keith or anyone else.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 1, 2013 22:51:52 GMT -5
The performance of SYA will probably air on the CMA Fest special on Aug. 12, so that'll help a bit more in terms of promo while it's nearing the top.
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churchchoir
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Post by churchchoir on Aug 1, 2013 23:01:50 GMT -5
jhomes87, You're correct. I don't think Carrie will be blocking anyone from #1. I was trying to make a point that Brett Eldredge's song doesn't seem nearly strong enough to pose a threat to "See You Again," but I guess I didn't exactly word that in a way that made my point clearly. I'm sure there's no way "See You Again" will get multiple weeks at #1. Yes, Carrie did have a slow day yesterday, but I believe it was one of only a small few ever since she reached the top 10. Keith appears to be having a heavy conversion week, but he should start to post steadier gains once he gets higher in audience. I still can't conceive Carrie getting surpassed by Keith, since he's pretty far behind and Carrie has been generally posting strong gains and her song is testing so well.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Aug 1, 2013 23:07:07 GMT -5
I wouldn't be shocked to see Carrie fall short of #1 on the BB chart, though even if she does, she could easily score a #1 on MB and be perfectly happy with that.
1. Quality of song is not really relevant to battles for #1. Occasionally a song that gets spectacular reviews heads straight for the top, but I don't think that Brett Eldredge's song's chart status, or for that matter Carrie's, is related to its quality.
2. Urban's gaining quite a bit on Underwood, and her song has had mixed success over the past 5-6 weeks. I expect her to wind up at #1 on both charts, and I'd give her about a 70% chance to get there, but I'm not persuaded by this song's recent chart run that its arrival at #1 has any inevitability to it. It can do it, it should do it, and I wouldn't bet my life savings on it. Now the Urban song -- that's different. That song's been acting like a #1 and should sail to the top. If I were managing that song's chart push, I'd be backing off the throttle right now due to the logjam near the top. But if I got the chance to pass Carrie a week or two from now, I'd go for it.
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Marv
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Post by Marv on Aug 2, 2013 10:23:45 GMT -5
This is Brett's 34th week on the Mediabase chart, so I don't know how much gas he has left in the tank.
Keith Urban has gained 54 spins on Carrie since Saturday.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Aug 2, 2013 14:20:10 GMT -5
This is Brett's 34th week on the Mediabase chart, so I don't know how much gas he has left in the tank. Brett's been on the Billboard chart for 41 weeks already, so I see your point. But of those weeks, only 26 saw him as high as the top 40. I think for a lot of those early weeks he was on so few stations that his tank was unaffected. And he's coming off a 4 million plus gain last week and putting up similar numbers this week. I was slow to see that this song is going to #1, but I've caught on now. It's going there on at least one of the charts. His lead over Carrie was very small on the 8/10 Billboard but he's pulling away this week if MB is any guide. By the way, I'm hoping your idea (about the tank) is right because I find his song tiresome. I don't have any more repetitions of it in my tank.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Aug 2, 2013 22:11:40 GMT -5
Well the lead Brett has over Carrie is now down to about 1.5 million AI and Carrie's lead over Keith has grown to over 2.5 million AI. Let's hope she can keep posting these huge gains, combined with her probably hosting the Country Aircheck in a couple weeks and Arista pushing this fully she should come out on top!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 3, 2013 0:05:15 GMT -5
Well the lead Brett has over Carrie is now down to about 1.5 million AI and Carrie's lead over Keith has grown to over 2.5 million AI. Let's hope she can keep posting these huge gains, combined with her probably hosting the Country Aircheck in a couple weeks and Arista pushing this fully she should come out on top! Are you talking about Billboard numbers? Because I'm not sure how Brett's lead is "down to 1.5 million", considering that he recently re-passed her and then he also out-gained her (4.1 million for him, 3.1 million for her) last week, and has now out-gained her each day on Mediabase this week. So Brett's lead isn't 'down'--it's actually growing. And the lead over Keith is shrinking. He's easily out-gained her on Mediabase as well this week, and had a bigger Billboard gain last week as well. I'm not saying Carrie won't get to #1, because I'm sure she will--this is Carrie, after all. But it's erroneous to say that she's gaining on Brett and pulling away from Keith.
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Marv
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Post by Marv on Aug 4, 2013 23:54:53 GMT -5
At Mediabase, her lead over Keith has drifted slowly downward to around 700 spins, so if that holds true until she reaches number one, that might get her two weeks at #1.
As I pointed out on the Carriefans board, this has now climbed to #17 for the year in spins among songs which debuted on the chart this year, and she'll undoubtedly pass several of those tunes either this month or next month.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Aug 6, 2013 16:36:12 GMT -5
Is she going to make it to #1 even? The lead between her and Keith keeps plummeting and Brett's lead over Carrie keeps growing. I just hope Arista will push SYA in the next couple weeks and vault it over Dont Ya or otherwise I worry about Keith passing her.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 6, 2013 17:01:55 GMT -5
Is she going to make it to #1 even? The lead between her and Keith keeps plummeting and Brett's lead over Carrie keeps growing. I just hope Arista will push SYA in the next couple weeks and vault it over Dont Ya or otherwise I worry about Keith passing her. She has virtually no chance of re-passing Brett. His album is out today and "Don't Ya" has been on fire for weeks now. Brett is also label-mates with Hunter so that means that Warner Music Nashville holds the #2 and #3 spots on the chart and they'll want both of those guys to spend time at #1 with Randy now ready to drop. Keith is indeed gaining on Carrie but I don't see why Carrie can't hit #1. Keith is probably at least 7-8 million away from #1 yet, and he'd need at least 3 weeks to get there. So if Hunter gets this week at #1 and Brett gets next week, then it could indeed be Keith's turn but I'll bet that his pace slows a bit, allowing Carrie to sneak in a week between Brett and Keith. After all, Keith has a huge lead over the songs behind him. If he tries to go up ahead of Carrie, he risks having Arista come in and furiously push SYA to #1, which would take away one of Keith's weeks at the top. There really is no reason for him to try to pass Carrie unless his team is sure they can hold her off. Because otherwise, if Keith plays nice, Carrie gets her week and Keith is still in a situation where he'll likely get 2-3 weeks at #1 undisturbed before FGL takes over. I'm pretty confident that Carrie will spend a week at the top. I'll give the next 2 charts to Hunter and Brett but then I give Carrie a week yet before Keith takes over.
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churchchoir
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Post by churchchoir on Aug 6, 2013 21:06:22 GMT -5
My only concern is that Arista will ignore the Billboard chart and Carrie will get a week at #1 on the MB chart only while Keith will get 2-3 weeks at the top on Billboard. It's unlikely considering Carrie is spending a tremendously long time at the top of the Callout America chart, but I can still see it happening if Arista disregards the BB chart. They have had a lot of Mediabase-only #1s this year (Southern Comfort Zone, Two Black Cadillacs, Beat This Summer).
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pnobelysk
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Post by pnobelysk on Aug 8, 2013 10:37:43 GMT -5
New peak of 41 on the hot 100 this week
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Aug 8, 2013 20:42:43 GMT -5
1 1 RANDY HOUSER Runnin' Outta Moonli... 7223 7159 64 54.917 3 2 HUNTER HAYES I Want Crazy 7169 6698 471 54.075 4 3 BRETT ELDREDGE Don't Ya 6702 6115 587 51.908 5 4 CARRIE UNDERWOOD See You Again 6662 6356 306 49.205 6 5 KEITH URBAN Little Bit Of Everyt... 6162 5605 557 48.031
My confidence in this hitting #1 is going down....Brett is almost 3 million AI ahead of Carrie and Keith is about 1.2 million AI behind Carrie. Arista needs to get into push mode soon....I just hope this is just one bad update and she will post a bigger gain the rest of the week.
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on Aug 8, 2013 22:05:24 GMT -5
1 1 RANDY HOUSER Runnin' Outta Moonli... 7223 7159 64 54.917 3 2 HUNTER HAYES I Want Crazy 7169 6698 471 54.075 4 3 BRETT ELDREDGE Don't Ya 6702 6115 587 51.908 5 4 CARRIE UNDERWOOD See You Again 6662 6356 306 49.205 6 5 KEITH URBAN Little Bit Of Everyt... 6162 5605 557 48.031 My confidence in this hitting #1 is going down....Brett is almost 3 million AI ahead of Carrie and Keith is about 1.2 million AI behind Carrie. Arista needs to get into push mode soon....I just hope this is just one bad update and she will post a bigger gain the rest of the week. Far be it from me to deny you your freakout, but Keith's gaudy Mediabase audience gains last week translated into a mere 200K audience gain on Carrie at Billboard, and Carrie started this week with a lead of a little over two million in audience at Billboard. I do think Keith is likely to narrow the gap this week as "Little Bit of Everything" completes its ascendance into top-five rotation across both country panels and "See You Again" awaits conversions into power rotation. "See You Again" will likely start moving into power rotations next week when either Randy Houser or Brett Eldredge cedes his spot in the top three. I wouldn't have looked at Eldredge as likely to peak this week, but his appearance at #1 on the Billboard Real-Time Tracker this morning made me wonder if Atlantic Nashville is looking to ride his release week airplay to #1 on at least one airplay chart this week, and then give way to Hunter next week. One additional wrinkle would be if country radio were to punt both Houser and Eldredge from the top-three next week to make room for Carrie and Keith in power rotations across the board. That wouldn't give Carrie much opportunity to extend any remaining lead she might have on Keith this week in preparation for her best chance for #1 (three charts from now). But even in that case, I think Arista Nashville is likely to be able to pull off a Mediabase-only #1. I'm interested to see if "See You Again" manages the Billboard Country Airplay #1 too. I prefer the audience-ranked chart for historical purposes, even if it only a Soundscan-era chart. But when MCA Nashville opted for a Mediabase-only #1 for "Beer Money" when the Billboard Country Airplay #1 was well within its grasp, I started wondering if the major labels might be trying to send a message to Billboard. If the labels show that Billboard airplay peaks don't matter, then reporting to and being part of the Billboard airplay panel will matter less (because Billboard-only panel stations are less likely to receive the benefits of label outreach), and so on. The mind wanders and wonders...
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Aug 8, 2013 22:28:30 GMT -5
New peak of 41 on the hot 100 this week I hope this doesn't get stuck at the same peak as TBC and can manage to move up into the Top 40 in the next couple weeks.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Aug 9, 2013 10:27:49 GMT -5
#1 is pretty much impossible for Carrie now. Her lead over Keith has shrunk to 300k AI. Unless Arista puts it into push mode. ..I just hope her top 2 streak stays intact
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dajross6
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Post by dajross6 on Aug 9, 2013 11:40:28 GMT -5
Honestly I think Carrie could still hit #1 even if Urban passes her. I don't think a Hayes/Eldredge/Urban/Underwood rotation at the top over the next four weeks is out of the question. The lead is enough over Easton Corbin or FGL for this to happen. I guess perhaps if Urban's song turns out to be a monster he could block Carrie, but I could see the rotating door theory happen here as has been the case over the last few years.
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ClevelandRox
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Post by ClevelandRox on Aug 9, 2013 17:52:47 GMT -5
I'm just ready for a new single.(I know there's a lot of assumption that there won't be another but...)Let this peak at 4 and give us DYTAM or Wine After Whiskey. I'm ready to stop changing the station.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Aug 10, 2013 10:00:01 GMT -5
Honestly I think Carrie could still hit #1 even if Urban passes her. I don't think a Hayes/Eldredge/Urban/Underwood rotation at the top over the next four weeks is out of the question. The lead is enough over Easton Corbin or FGL for this to happen. I guess perhaps if Urban's song turns out to be a monster he could block Carrie, but I could see the rotating door theory happen here as has been the case over the last few years. I don't think KU will be held to one week on top -- he'll get 2 and has an outside shot at 3. In the old days, his song would have been a 5-6 week #1. Now of course we could see a magical big-push kind of crazy move from Carrie as we have many times from other artists (their labels, I mean), but that's hard to predict -- and in the absence of that, once Urban passes her she's done as far as #1 is concerned. She's wrapping up her 20th week on Billboard, not that that's old but she's 7 weeks older than Urban. Why are we seeing a slowdown from her now? Is the song hitting its peak, or are they waiting for next week and planning a huge push? I don't see how it's possible to know the answer. But I suspect it's peaking, because why would you voluntarily surrender your AI lead over a fast-climbing song that's right behind you?
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kml567
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Post by kml567 on Aug 10, 2013 12:26:14 GMT -5
Any chance Brett would be happy with a Billboard-only #1 and give up next week?
I think Carrie's chances at Billboard #1 is slim-to-none, so the only hope is really a Mediabase #1.
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on Aug 10, 2013 12:56:23 GMT -5
Any chance Brett would be happy with a Billboard-only #1 and give up next week? I think Carrie's chances at Billboard #1 is slim-to-none, so the only hope is really a Mediabase #1. Brett's song is old and could peak this week after a boost from album release-related airplay, but I don't see why Warner Nashville would be content to let Brett and Hunter split the week and cede next week to Sony Nashville and Carrie. It seems to me that Warner Nashville is in a good position to control both this and next week at the top of the airplay charts. But I could be wrong. I expect "See You Again" to have a good week next week for several reasons: the first is, as I mentioned, I expect "See You Again" to gain conversions to power rotation (for the top-three songs on playlists across the panel), and the second is that there will presumably be a radio component to the promotion for Carrie's Blown Away DVD next week. I wonder if the live version of "See You Again" from that DVD might be serviced to country radio to provide an additional airplay boost, since Arista Nashville has been known to release alternate versions during the week a single is expected to peak. A third reason would be that Carrie is cohosting Country Countdown USA next weekend, though looking at Hunter's gains from last weekend (when he cohosted), I'm not sure that will have that large an impact. Cohosting CCUSA certainly wouldn't have a major impact on next week's Mediabase chart, whose chart closes on Saturday.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Aug 10, 2013 14:56:33 GMT -5
It appears that she has lost AI and now Keith is overtaking her. They need to push it now and try to keep her top 2 streak going. I think it will hit top 3 but #1 seems unlikely.
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austin
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Post by austin on Aug 10, 2013 21:39:31 GMT -5
I don't know why they released this instead of Do You Think About Me, especially coming off of two ballads already AND in the Summer. Bleh. Hopefully this falls starting next week so she can get something else out or take a break.
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Post by countrygirl918 on Aug 11, 2013 0:55:41 GMT -5
I'd hardly consider "Blown Away" or "Two Black Cadillacs" to be ballads. They're solid mid-tempos. "See You Again" has been receiving fantastic call-out scores (some of the best in Carrie's history). It wouldn't have been my pick for a single, but I think it's done very well. It may not be as big of seller as this album's previous three singles, but it still managed to go gold and has obviously resonated well with country radio listeners. Sony Nashville certainly would not give up on the song without a fight, and considering the large amount of promotion lined up for Carrie next week, I'm pretty sure that push is coming. This is Carrie Underwood we're talking about here. #1 is never out of the realm of possibility for her.
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Jay
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Post by Jay on Aug 11, 2013 4:29:36 GMT -5
This sounds really great on the radio. One of the best Country songs of the year for me.
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