Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Aug 11, 2013 21:06:46 GMT -5
Any chance Brett would be happy with a Billboard-only #1 and give up next week? I think Carrie's chances at Billboard #1 is slim-to-none, so the only hope is really a Mediabase #1. Brett's song is old and could peak this week after a boost from album release-related airplay, but I don't see why Warner Nashville would be content to let Brett and Hunter split the week and cede next week to Sony Nashville and Carrie. It seems to me that Warner Nashville is in a good position to control both this and next week at the top of the airplay charts. But I could be wrong. I expect "See You Again" to have a good week next week for several reasons: the first is, as I mentioned, I expect "See You Again" to gain conversions to power rotation (for the top-three songs on playlists across the panel), and the second is that there will presumably be a radio component to the promotion for Carrie's Blown Away DVD next week. I wonder if the live version of "See You Again" from that DVD might be serviced to country radio to provide an additional airplay boost, since Arista Nashville has been known to release alternate versions during the week a single is expected to peak. A third reason would be that Carrie is cohosting Country Countdown USA next weekend, though looking at Hunter's gains from last weekend (when he cohosted), I'm not sure that will have that large an impact. Cohosting CCUSA certainly wouldn't have a major impact on next week's Mediabase chart, whose chart closes on Saturday. I'm not that persuaded by countdown show spins either, unless a given race looks very very close. I do like your other reasons for expecting CU to post big numbers this coming week. However, Urban has gained 2.5 mill from Monday through Sunday on MB this week. Now we just saw last week a big gain for Urban vs. Underwood on MB NOT get a normal translation on MB, but I don't think we'll see that twice in a row. I'd have a more intelligent opinion if I knew whether the race to #1 between Underwood and Urban is slated for this coming week, the week after that, or whenever else it might come to its conclusion. I don't know whether all of the top 3 songs are about to freefall or if 2 of them, or 1, is adopting a multiple-week strategy. Since I don't know that, my opinion on Underwood's chances is a lot less useful but I now see a path for Urban to pass her. That said, I still wouldn't bet against her, given her chart history. Your "big next week" idea looks good somehow.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Aug 12, 2013 8:06:13 GMT -5
The push for Brett has begun. Hunter will likely begin to fall and then it will be down to Carrie vs Keith. It will all come down to whether they will let Carrie by for a week or try to push
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Aug 12, 2013 10:28:22 GMT -5
You might be right, but I'm hoping Brett's push is now finished and tomorrow's number for him is flat or lower. Then we can get on with the Carrie vs. Keith battle.
I think you're right that Hunter Hayes is ready to fall, but even that's not certain. I haven't even seen Randy Houser start to freefall yet, so there are 5 songs that might finish next week as #1 on Billboard (though some are likelier than others).
There isn't usually this much doubt. It's refreshing.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Aug 12, 2013 10:55:14 GMT -5
The time to push would be this week. That way they have time to get SYA to #1 by Sunday, that way they can get the BB #1 on Monday and then Carrie can freefall and Keith can move in. Carrie needs a top 2 peak.
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churchchoir
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Post by churchchoir on Aug 12, 2013 11:03:54 GMT -5
I think at this point there is no way Carrie is going to get her hands on the Billboard #1. With her co-hosting Country Countdown USA this weekend, she will possibly have a chance to hold off LBOE on Mediabase only provided that Brett is done with his final push, but if "Don't Ya" shoots for #1, there will simlpy not be enough room for SYA to move up and she may collapse this week before her chance to co-host the countdown.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Aug 12, 2013 18:44:40 GMT -5
Brett got the BB #1, now it's time to push Carrie. They need to move now before Keith gains too much of a lead.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 12, 2013 19:23:51 GMT -5
I find that my thoughts are very much in line with those of 43dudleyvillas. I see that Hunter got the Mediabase #1 and posted a drop today (probably inflated by the loss of a countdown spin, but it was a drop nonetheless), and Brett got the Billboard #1. Carrie's MB bullet has shrunk drastically... But here's the thing. Like Dudley was saying, you had 3 songs essentially vying for #1 last week. That's very rare. Those songs were 1) Randy's "Runnin' Outta Moonlight" - it had spent the previous 2 weeks at #1 on Billboard's Country Airplay chart, but Stoney Creek Records made it evident they wanted to hold it at max spins through the 11th, so it was hardly losing ground at all last week; 2) Hunter Hayes' "I Want Crazy" - power up for #1 ads went out for this song a full week ago; and 3) Brett Eldredge's "Don't Ya" - Brett is Hunter's labelmate but if Hunter got to #1 on Mediabase, I suspect that that would more than satisfy Warner Music Nashville, since now they can focus solely on "Don't Ya" for one more week. Brett's album is out, and this is his breakthrough hit, and it's been a LONG time since we've had a Billboard-only #1 hit. Now we know that Hunter got to #1 on MB and posted a drop today, and Brett got the BB #1, meaning that Randy narrowly missed out on his 3rd week there. But I suspect that Hunter's rate of decline will escalate in the coming days, leaving him with the MB-only #1, and I suspect that Brett will have tiny gains leading up to the weekend, allowing himself to get a 2nd week at #1 on BB and the week atop MB as well. But the catch is that with Randy and Hunter now bowing out of the race, there will be plenty of room for Arista Nashville to work with--Carrie should start getting bumped into power rotation this week, although it will likely be 2 weeks until she tops the charts. This is just a theory, of course, but I do believe Randy and Hunter are done gaining, so if 2 of the top 3 songs are falling, then Carrie will start to pick up those spins. Obviously Keith might pick up a bunch of spins as well but I don't think his team is in that big of a hurry. I think his song closed the gap on Carrie all on its own, simply because it's his lead single from an anticipated album. I think he will probably let Carrie go ahead of him, or at least allow her a MB-only #1. I do agree that the Billboard #1 for Carrie is in a good bit of doubt right now, but I see no reason why Arista Nashville can't get her to #1 on Mediabase and at least a #2 peak on Billboard airplay. Perhaps SYA has hit its natural peak but most labels hold the songs up there for up to 2 weeks after the 'natural peak', or the time when radio starts to stop a song's airplay increases. I guess it's possible that Carrie could start falling this week but I think Arista Nashville will get her 2 more weeks' worth of airplay growth yet.
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zaclord 🌈
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Post by zaclord 🌈 on Aug 12, 2013 21:17:24 GMT -5
Ouch, Keith passes Carrie on Billboard tonight. Not looking good for a BB #1, although Mediabase may still happen if Arista can give a big push this week and/or next. I don't think "See You Again" can wait its turn after Keith because he will likely get 2-3 weeks. Carrie may have her 2nd official #2 peak.
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justme60
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Post by justme60 on Aug 12, 2013 21:31:39 GMT -5
I love Keith and Carrie both, but my favorite is Keith and I have to cheer for him!! Man, kind of a nail biter for sure!
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Aug 13, 2013 9:36:12 GMT -5
Ouch, Keith passes Carrie on Billboard tonight. Not looking good for a BB #1, although Mediabase may still happen if Arista can give a big push this week and/or next. I don't think "See You Again" can wait its turn after Keith because he will likely get 2-3 weeks. Carrie may have her 2nd official #2 peak. I agree, I wasn't expecting to see Keith pass her already. I don't think she'll get to #1 on Billboard (Mediabase is a different story), but she should be able to make it to #2. She should be able to get up to #3 this week, with Hunter and Randy falling, and then she should be able to pass Brett Eldredge the following week. If this happens, it would make it her fifth official #2 peak on Billboard, I think (after "Don't Forget To Remember Me", "I Told You So", "Mama's Song" and "Two Black Cadillacs").
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Aug 13, 2013 12:37:39 GMT -5
I didn't see another week of +800 gains for Eldredge, but maybe he'll slow down after today. He'll finish #1 on both charts next week even without today's kind of massive gain. But if he does keep outgaining Underwood by a huge amount, he'll be so far ahead of her that it will take an extra week for her to catch him on MB. Unless, of course, we see an absurd out-of-context push that I think she's too classy to want.
The other question is how long she can stay ahead of Urban on MB. I would say 1-2 more days. There, though, I can picture her re-passing him because that would not take a ridiculous phony-looking push. She'll be close. But it will take a big reversal of form for her to re-pass him.
At this point, the top 3 on both charts next week looks like Eldredge-Urban-Underwood and the week after that might be the same 3 songs, just with the top 2 in a different order. I no longer see SYA as a #1 contender unless the label wants to try for a Somebody-style run.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 13, 2013 17:22:09 GMT -5
This ad is in today's Country Aircheck daily email: Obviously Eldredge is going to get this week at #1, and Keith Urban's tune is looking much stronger than SYA is, but I don't think Carrie would need that big of a push to get to #1 (on Mediabase, that is). And I'm expecting that Arista will try to get this to #1 on MB next week. I agree that her chances at the Billboard #1 seem very doubtful, considering Urban got ahead and is only pulling away, but the MB #1 is still well within their grasp.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Aug 13, 2013 19:02:38 GMT -5
Ouch, Keith passes Carrie on Billboard tonight. Not looking good for a BB #1, although Mediabase may still happen if Arista can give a big push this week and/or next. I don't think "See You Again" can wait its turn after Keith because he will likely get 2-3 weeks. Carrie may have her 2nd official #2 peak. I agree, I wasn't expecting to see Keith pass her already. I don't think she'll get to #1 on Billboard (Mediabase is a different story), but she should be able to make it to #2. She should be able to get up to #3 this week, with Hunter and Randy falling, and then she should be able to pass Brett Eldredge the following week. If this happens, it would make it her fifth official #2 peak on Billboard, I think (after "Don't Forget To Remember Me", "I Told You So", "Mama's Song" and "Two Black Cadillacs"). If that were to happen, I will move Carrie Underwood from #54, the new entry this year to #40 on the list of the most #2s.
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Ten Pound Hammer
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Post by Ten Pound Hammer on Aug 13, 2013 19:43:22 GMT -5
and it's been a LONG time since we've had a Billboard-only #1 hit. When was the last one anyway? "Free and Easy (Down the Road I Go)"?
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peterca
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Post by peterca on Aug 13, 2013 20:45:42 GMT -5
On RIAA's website today:
Artist Title Release Date Certification Date Label Type Award Description Format Category
UNDERWOOD, CARRIE DON'T FORGET TO REMEMBER ME NOVEMBER 15, 2005 AUGUST 12, 2013 19 RECORDINGS LIMITED/ARISTA NASHVILLE DIGITAL GOLD SINGLE SOLO
UNDERWOOD, CARRIE SEE YOU AGAIN MAY 01, 2012 AUGUST 05, 2013 19 RECORDINGS LIMITED/ARISTA NASHVILLE DIGITAL GOLD SINGLE SOLO
UNDERWOOD, CARRIE TEMPORARY HOME OCTOBER 20, 2009 JULY 24, 2013 19 RECORDINGS LIMITED/ARISTA NASHVILLE DIGITAL PLATINUM SINGLE SOLO
PAISLEY, BRAD & CARRIE UNDERWOOD REMIND ME JUNE 07, 2011 JULY 23, 2013 ARISTA NASHVILLE DIGITAL 2.00X MULTI PLATINUM SINGLE DUO
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Aug 14, 2013 6:24:02 GMT -5
I just don't understand what Sony is doing with this. They have the best promotion vehicle as far as this week goes with all the dvd promo and they are just sitting and watching this do nothing. SYA lost another million in AI over night. This song is dead unless they push and they need to push now and at least keep Carrie's top 2 streak alive because this song is over 20 weeks old. It doesnt have enough gas in the tank to wait for Urban to jump over it.
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carriekins
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Post by carriekins on Aug 14, 2013 8:26:40 GMT -5
Where are you seeing that it lost a million in AI? According to Mediabase it GAINED 16k in audience, and while that isn't much, it's certainly not a loss that would indicate the song is dead...
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Aug 14, 2013 11:27:28 GMT -5
Seeing "Don't Forget to Remember Me" finally reach Gold status is great to see, as it's one of my very favorites. Now all of her singles have at least crossed that milestone, with "See You Again" also getting that honor as well.
I'm disappointed it looks like this won't make it to No. 1 on Billboard, which I didn't expect to happen for her again, but I hope it can still get there on the other chart and I hope it can just sneak into the Top 40 of the Hot 100.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 14, 2013 13:22:49 GMT -5
I just don't understand what Sony is doing with this. They have the best promotion vehicle as far as this week goes with all the dvd promo and they are just sitting and watching this do nothing. SYA lost another million in AI over night. This song is dead unless they push and they need to push now and at least keep Carrie's top 2 streak alive because this song is over 20 weeks old. It doesnt have enough gas in the tank to wait for Urban to jump over it. How about some patience? You've had several comments here in the last week or so about SYA's struggles, but I don't know what else can be said that hasn't already been said. I'm sure Sony is aware of this song's struggles but sometimes these things happen--songs can simply just run out of gas. This is the 4th single from the album, and it's been on the chart for 20 weeks now, which is about the most that any CU singles get. Some of the early-adopting stations (meaning, the ones that began playing this as soon as they got it a full 20-22 weeks ago) are probably not holding on to this as much, as they might be looking to make room in their playlists for other songs. For a big name like Carrie, 20 weeks is about as long as a song can hold on. But like carriekins noted, this song didn't lose 1 million in audience. I'm not sure where you got that number from. On today's Mediabase report, it had a small spins loss but still a 16k gain in audience. Keith IS already ahead of Carrie, on both charts (Billboard & Mediabase now too), so the label will either have to make one last 'max spins' effort next week (there's no point in them pushing this week...Brett Eldredge is clearly going to be #1), or take the the peak position that they currently have. I get that the DVD thing is out this week but if they start a final push for this next week, the DVD won't even be a full week old yet so they'll still be fine. I still think she's got a chance at the Mediabase #1, but for the end of next week...and that's assuming that Arista will indeed push it for one more week yet beyond the current week. I don't see how Carrie can get back ahead of Keith on Billboard, but she may be able to sneak ahead of him for just a few days on MB at the end of next week, when it would count. Hayes and Houser are falling now and Eldredge will likely begin falling by Sunday or Monday at the latest too.. That would leave just Carrie and Keith and so I think Keith would be the front-runner to take over the BB #1 at the end of next week, but Carrie still has a decent chance to remain in the running for the MB #1.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Aug 14, 2013 14:34:33 GMT -5
3 1 BRETT ELDREDGE Don't Ya 7221 6557 664 55.488 2 2 HUNTER HAYES I Want Crazy 7006 7108 -102 52.871 1 3 RANDY HOUSER Runnin' Outta Moonli... 6876 7262 -386 53.201 5 4 KEITH URBAN Little Bit Of Everyt... 6475 6120 355 50.311 4 5 CARRIE UNDERWOOD See You Again 6611 6648 -37 48.738
SYA was over 49m last night, now its down to 48.7 and its lost its bullet, and this is from the mediabase 24/7 chart, that's where I'm getting my numbers.
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carriekins
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Post by carriekins on Aug 14, 2013 15:01:48 GMT -5
Not to nitpick, but according to this site, which pulls from Mediabase daily, on 8/13 (yesterday), SYA was at 48.722 million AI. Therefore, today's AI of 48.738 reflects the 16k gain SYA had overnight.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 14, 2013 15:31:43 GMT -5
3 1 BRETT ELDREDGE Don't Ya 7221 6557 664 55.488 2 2 HUNTER HAYES I Want Crazy 7006 7108 -102 52.871 1 3 RANDY HOUSER Runnin' Outta Moonli... 6876 7262 -386 53.201 5 4 KEITH URBAN Little Bit Of Everyt... 6475 6120 355 50.311 4 5 CARRIE UNDERWOOD See You Again 6611 6648 -37 48.738 SYA was over 49m last night, now its down to 48.7 and its lost its bullet, and this is from the mediabase 24/7 chart, that's where I'm getting my numbers. Well Mediabase had SYA at 48.722 million yesterday, not over 49 million. SYA previously got as high as 49.230 million at one point last week, but there were a few days in which it lost small amounts of audience. In any case, it certainly hasn't had a 1 million decrease. If it did, then everyone on this board would agree that the song is done and that it wouldn't make any sense to try to revive it. But as it stands now, I still expect the label to go for one more little push next week. And, like I said, it really makes no sense for them to push now, since Brett Eldredge and his label are clearly going to be #1 this week. Carrie's best (and probably only) chance at the Mediabase #1 will come next week so if there is indeed somewhat of a final push, I'd look for it to begin on Sunday (and therefore reflected in the Monday morning Mediabase numbers). They aren't going to beat out Brett this week so we shouldn't expect to see them try. They need to wait until Brett starts falling and so basically what I think we're seeing is SYA kind of in a holding pattern which will likely persist through the week, but if Arista can muster up some resources and get one more week of spins increases, then Carrie still has a chance to be in the running for the MB #1 next week, with Keith Urban as her only competition.
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Marv
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Post by Marv on Aug 14, 2013 16:34:38 GMT -5
^^^^Perfectly stated; I agree with this 100%
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Aug 14, 2013 18:50:35 GMT -5
3 1 BRETT ELDREDGE Don't Ya 7221 6557 664 55.488 2 2 HUNTER HAYES I Want Crazy 7006 7108 -102 52.871 1 3 RANDY HOUSER Runnin' Outta Moonli... 6876 7262 -386 53.201 5 4 KEITH URBAN Little Bit Of Everyt... 6475 6120 355 50.311 4 5 CARRIE UNDERWOOD See You Again 6611 6648 -37 48.738 SYA was over 49m last night, now its down to 48.7 and its lost its bullet, and this is from the mediabase 24/7 chart, that's where I'm getting my numbers. I have Carrie's high total as 49.230, achieved on the 8/7 update. She spent 3 days over 49, then dropped into the 48 mill range and has remained there. Her peak total of 49.230 is only half a mill more than the (correct) figure you post as her today total. She hasn't lost a million in the 7 days since achieving her high, let alone overnight.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 15, 2013 16:34:10 GMT -5
Next, HAC! Once again, a country hit from Blown Away makes a move toward pop, with "See You Again" going for HAC adds on August 26.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Aug 16, 2013 11:24:06 GMT -5
SYA gains 400k overnight while Urban stands still. Is this the beginning of the long-delayed move? She has 10 days to get this song to #1 on MB. Assuming one of these days Eldredge starts to fall, I think she has enough time to get there. Barely. She can't waste more than 1 of her 10 days.
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rsmatto
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Post by rsmatto on Aug 16, 2013 13:38:33 GMT -5
SYA gains 400k overnight while Urban stands still. Is this the beginning of the long-delayed move? She has 10 days to get this song to #1 on MB. Assuming one of these days Eldredge starts to fall, I think she has enough time to get there. Barely. She can't waste more than 1 of her 10 days. They sent out a live "From American Idol" version of this today too. Not that radio will actually play that.
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Post by tim on Aug 17, 2013 0:30:58 GMT -5
I have to say I love hearing this song on radio...very refreshing when compared to the rest of what's being played right now. I'm an on and off Carrie fan (sorry but songs like "Undo It" and "Good Girl" make me cringe), but a song like this can pull me back in and forgive some of the misses. Hope this one makes it to the top.
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churchchoir
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Post by churchchoir on Aug 17, 2013 10:40:51 GMT -5
Carrie will surely benefit from the large gap between "See You Again" and "All Over the Road." She is already benefiting from last week's top 2 (on Mediabase) falling and freeing up a lot of airplay. Since songs from Easton Corbin and FGL are fairly new to the top 10 and have a lot of growing left to do, they won't gain too much airplay from this situation and Carrie almost HAS to start getting much more heavy rotation. However, I am yet again disappointed to see a label not wanting to let a song settle for a natural peak position. This trend of 95% of songs that hit the top 15 going to #1 has got to stop. It really ruins chart watching for me honestly. I will soon take the Mediabase airplay chart about as seriously as I do the Billboard Hot Country Songs chart.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Aug 19, 2013 7:59:30 GMT -5
Up almost 600k today while Urban politely treads water. I think we know what's going to happen on MB, but the question still remains whether she will get both #1's as a result of this push.
It's not Carrie's fault, but watching the chart is getting more and more uninteresting. It's the 80's all over again. And I quit for a few years back then -- unfortunately for everybody here, I changed my mind when BB instituted their technology fix back in 1990. And I haven't wanted to quit since then, but there's not much fun in projecting when everybody is guaranteed a week at the top. Between that and the perma-Cruise mongrel chart, where's the enjoyment here?
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