Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Jun 19, 2013 10:58:59 GMT -5
I think we can pretty much narrow it down now. It's rare for a song to be released this late into the game and get #1 for the year.
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Lozzy
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Post by Lozzy on Jun 19, 2013 11:01:07 GMT -5
Pretty sure "Thrift Shop" will take it. I'm hoping for "Blurred Lines" out of those options though. Or "Just Give Me A Reason", of course.
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SPRΞΞ
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Post by SPRΞΞ on Jun 19, 2013 21:53:04 GMT -5
1. Blurred Lines
2. Thrift Shop
3. Mirrors
4. Can't Hold Us
5. ------ ?
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Jay
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Post by Jay on Jun 19, 2013 23:32:04 GMT -5
It's probably between "Blurred Lines" or "Thrift Shop". I'll be surprised if anything else takes it.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2013 0:32:24 GMT -5
My very uneducated guess for the top 10:
1. Thrift Shop
2. Blurred Lines
3. Locked Out of Heaven
4-5. Just Give Me a Reason
4-5. Can't Hold Us
6. When I Was Your Man
7-8. I Knew You Were Trouble
7-8. Stay
9. Mirrors
10. Get Lucky or Cruise
I'm going to say TS for now but if BL dominates the summer the way CMM did last year then I would say BL will be the year-end #1.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2013 10:32:11 GMT -5
1. Thrift Shop
2. Blurred Lines
3. Harlem Shake
IKYWT will maybe miss top 10 due to the 2012 release, LOOH should be #6 though.
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Post by josh on Jun 20, 2013 10:45:40 GMT -5
Either Thrift Shop or Blurred Lines. Right now my money's on Thrift Shop but too early to tell for sure.
Oh and LOOH will beat Harlem Shake.
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Az Paynter
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Post by Az Paynter on Jun 20, 2013 11:08:56 GMT -5
I wouldn't be surprised if Harlem S**t doesn't even make the top 25. For the MAHOOSIVE amount of points it racked up in a short amount of time, it fell off just as quickly, and the system being the way it is at the moment, the legitimate hits will have (or have already had) more than ample time to accumulate the points to push it back out.
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Post by josh on Jun 20, 2013 11:25:41 GMT -5
I wouldn't be surprised if Harlem S**t doesn't even make the top 25. For the MAHOOSIVE amount of points it racked up in a short amount of time, it fell off just as quickly, and the system being the way it is at the moment, the legitimate hits will have (or have already had) more than ample time to accumulate the points to push it back out. It's gonna make top 25, unless they don't count YT towards year-end charts. nick64 told me they didn't count streaming for 2012 year-end. I never saw the article he was talking about, but if that's true then I don't see why YT would count, and in that case HS won't even make top 100. |
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Cody Wants Out...
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Post by Cody Wants Out... on Jun 20, 2013 13:02:17 GMT -5
I'm gonna go against the grain here and say that "Can't Hold Us" will take it this year, although that may be what I prefer if Macklemore and Ryan Lewis has to top it this year. I'm sure y'all are gonna be right with "Thrift Shop", though. I mean, TS is still top 20 after 37 weeks on the chart and I have a feeling that CHU will fall as slowly as TS has during the former's descent. Macklemore definitely has top 5 on lock, if not top 3.
I'm also open to "Blurred Lines" taking it or something else. Other predictions:
"Get Lucky" - top 5 (#4)
"Locked Out of Heaven" - right outside top 5 (#6 or 7)
"I Knew You Were Trouble." - outside top 10 ala Adele's SFTTR last year (#12 or 13)
"Mirrors" - lower part of top 10 (#8 or 9)
"Cruise" - mid-teens (#14 - 16)
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Post by Rocky on Jun 20, 2013 13:03:28 GMT -5
Cool game!!!  Thrift Shop for sure. lol I'm pregnant drunk. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2013 13:50:28 GMT -5
I think Radioactive will be a contender for top 10 with its longevity
Anyways,
1 Thrift Shop
2 Blurred Lines
3 LOOH
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2013 16:46:57 GMT -5
1. Thrift Shop 2. Blurred Lines 3. Harlem Shake IKYWT will maybe miss top 10 due to the 2012 release, LOOH should be #6 though. Billboard's year runs from December to December though (which really means mid-November to mid-November since their issues are dated two weeks ahead), and IKYWT was officially released to US radio Nov. 27, so its entire run at radio is included and that helps it a lot. I do think there is a chance it could miss top ten but if so I think it will be because a couple of other songs passed it in overall longevity. I wouldn't be surprised if Harlem S**t doesn't even make the top 25. For the MAHOOSIVE amount of points it racked up in a short amount of time, it fell off just as quickly, and the system being the way it is at the moment, the legitimate hits will have (or have already had) more than ample time to accumulate the points to push it back out. I think it will make top 25, but otherwise I agree with you. For the eight weeks that it spent in the top 10 there will be over four times as many weeks that it wasn't on the Hot 100 at all. "Born This Way" actually had a similar run - it was released at about the same time of year, debuted at #1 and stayed there for 6 consecutive weeks, but then only spent three more weeks in the top 10. It felt huge at the time but once it was over, it was done, and it finished at #18 for the year. I see HS placing similarly, if not a tad lower. |
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Post by josh on Jun 20, 2013 16:51:15 GMT -5
I wouldn't be surprised if Harlem S**t doesn't even make the top 25. For the MAHOOSIVE amount of points it racked up in a short amount of time, it fell off just as quickly, and the system being the way it is at the moment, the legitimate hits will have (or have already had) more than ample time to accumulate the points to push it back out. I think it will make top 25, but otherwise I agree with you. For the eight weeks that it spent in the top 10 there will be over four times as many weeks that it wasn't on the Hot 100 at all. "Born This Way" actually had a similar run - it was released at about the same time of year, debuted at #1 and stayed there for 6 consecutive weeks, but then only spent three more weeks in the top 10. It felt huge at the time but once it was over, it was done, and it finished at #18 for the year. I see HS placing similarly, if not a tad lower. The thing with Harlem Shake is that its first 2 weeks were 3.5x the points of TS, 3 and 4 weeks were 2 or 2.5 times the points (I forget which it was), and the 5th week it was about even. Thrift Shop was HUGE. Harlem Shake got more like the points of weeks at #1 in just 5 weeks. It's going to be high. |
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Post by Adonis the DemiGod! on Jun 20, 2013 16:54:37 GMT -5
Harlem Shake has this one easily.
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Lozzy
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Post by Lozzy on Jun 20, 2013 17:01:14 GMT -5
I wouldn't be surprised if Harlem S**t doesn't even make the top 25. For the MAHOOSIVE amount of points it racked up in a short amount of time, it fell off just as quickly, and the system being the way it is at the moment, the legitimate hits will have (or have already had) more than ample time to accumulate the points to push it back out. It's gonna make top 25, unless they don't count YT towards year-end charts. nick64 told me they didn't count streaming for 2012 year-end. I never saw the article he was talking about, but if that's true then I don't see why YT would count, and in that case HS won't even make top 100. Didn't they exclude streaming for 2012 because it was added in April or so, just like they stuck with the old methodology for the genre year-end charts too? Billboard's year runs from December to Decmeber though (which really means mid-November to mid-November since their issues are dated two weeks ahead), and IKYWT was officially released to US radio Nov. 27, so its entire run at radio is included and that helps it a lot. I do think there is a chance it could miss top ten but if so I think it will be because a couple of other songs passed it in overall longevity. IKYWT had already sold 718k before the first December chart. I think it will make top 25, but otherwise I agree with you. For the eight weeks that it spent in the top 10 there will be over four times as many weeks that it wasn't on the Hot 100 at all. "Born This Way" actually had a similar run - it was released at about the same time of year, debuted at #1 and stayed there for 6 consecutive weeks, but then only spent three more weeks in the top 10. It felt huge at the time but once it was over, it was done, and it finished at #18 for the year. I see HS placing similarly, if not a tad lower. Comparing BTW to HS is painful. :'( |
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Post by josh on Jun 20, 2013 17:07:06 GMT -5
It's gonna make top 25, unless they don't count YT towards year-end charts. nick64 told me they didn't count streaming for 2012 year-end. I never saw the article he was talking about, but if that's true then I don't see why YT would count, and in that case HS won't even make top 100. Didn't they exclude streaming for 2012 because it was added in April or so, just like they stuck with the old methodology for the genre year-end charts too? Yeah I understand the reasoning and it makes sense in a way but also doesn't make sense, but I just haven't actually seen it written by Billboard with my own eyes so I'm not 100% sure they did it that way at this point.  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2013 20:40:45 GMT -5
Billboard's year runs from December to Decmeber though (which really means mid-November to mid-November since their issues are dated two weeks ahead), and IKYWT was officially released to US radio Nov. 27, so its entire run at radio is included and that helps it a lot. I do think there is a chance it could miss top ten but if so I think it will be because a couple of other songs passed it in overall longevity. IKYWT had already sold 718k before the first December chart. Yeah, I knew about 1/5 of its sales are 'lost' on this year's chart (and that is why I don't see it placing higher than 7-10), but I was just pointing out that having virtually all of its airplay count will help counteract that. Even if it misses the top 10, I expect to see it in the top 15. It is! :( And I can't stand BTW. I just used it to explain my reasoning for not expecting HS to even make the top 10 despite the points it did get; the chart run simply doesn't support it. If it's any consolation BTW had the huger pop culture impact. IMO HS was just a fad. Not really something that can be measured on a chart though. |
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SPRΞΞ
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Post by SPRΞΞ on Jun 20, 2013 23:33:23 GMT -5
The first 2 weeks of HS's run 3.5x TS would be equivilent to 7 #1 weeks. Weeks 3 and 4 being 2.5x bigger would be equivilent to 5 #1 weeks. Week 5 equally another week.
So in regards to overall point totals, we should estimate HS being #1 for 13 weeks. And then falling off.
It will definitely make the Top 5, I think.
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LBTrocks
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Post by LBTrocks on Jun 20, 2013 23:54:10 GMT -5
I'm suspecting Thrift Shop, but I'm pulling for Blurred Lines.
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Zeebz
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Posts: 11,999
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Post by Zeebz on Jun 21, 2013 17:11:42 GMT -5
My top ten guess based on what is released so far:
1. Thrift Shop
2. Harlem Shake (it'll be close)
3. Blurred Lines
4. Locked Out Of Heaven
5. Just Give Me A Reason
6. Can't Hold Us
7. Radioactive
8. Get Lucky
9. Ho Hey
10. Cruise, Mirrors, or I Knew You Were Trouble.
However, a new release could come out and squeak into the top ten.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2013 17:50:21 GMT -5
1. Thrift Shop 2. Harlem Shake (it'll be close) Harlem Shake will not be #1 nor "close" to "Thrift Shop"'s points. Here's a nice way of visualizing Harlem Shake's chart run: #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 #4 #6 #13 #17 #22 #30 #38 #50 #53 #54 #63 #60 (18th Week) #60? (Projected 19th Week) #60? (Projected 20th Week - Will Be Removed To Recurrency Following Week) Let's stack all of the Harlem Shake's weeks vs. all of Thrift Shop's best weeks thus far! HS |TS #1 |#1 #1 |#1 #1 |#1 #1 |#1 #1 |#1 #1 |#1 #1 |#2 #1 |#2 #1 |#2 #1 |#2 #1 |#2 #1 |#2 #1 |#2 #4 |#3 #6 |#4 #13|#5 #17|#6 #22|#7 #30|#10 #38|#10 #50|#11 #53|#12 #54|#13 #60|#14 #60|#17 #60|#21 #63|#28 XX | + lots more weeks to come Even when you bring Harlem Shake out to 13 normal-weeks at #1; those extra 7 weeks at #1 are matched by Thrift Shop's weeks at #2. Harlem Shake then gets outdone for the remainder of it's run. Harlem Shake will do well on the year-end; but it will not beat/match/be-close-to Thrift Shop's performance. |
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Zeebz
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Post by Zeebz on Jun 22, 2013 9:36:01 GMT -5
1. Thrift Shop 2. Harlem Shake (it'll be close) Harlem Shake will not be #1 nor "close" to "Thrift Shop"'s points. Here's a nice way of visualizing Harlem Shake's chart run: #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 #4 #6 #13 #17 #22 #30 #38 #50 #53 #54 #63 #60 (18th Week) #60? (Projected 19th Week) #60? (Projected 20th Week - Will Be Removed To Recurrency Following Week) Let's stack all of the Harlem Shake's weeks vs. all of Thrift Shop's best weeks thus far! HS |TS #1 |#1 #1 |#1 #1 |#1 #1 |#1 #1 |#1 #1 |#1 #1 |#2 #1 |#2 #1 |#2 #1 |#2 #1 |#2 #1 |#2 #1 |#2 #4 |#3 #6 |#4 #13|#5 #17|#6 #22|#7 #30|#10 #38|#10 #50|#11 #53|#12 #54|#13 #60|#14 #60|#17 #60|#21 #63|#28 XX | + lots more weeks to come Even when you bring Harlem Shake out to 13 normal-weeks at #1; those extra 7 weeks at #1 are matched by Thrift Shop's weeks at #2. Harlem Shake then gets outdone for the remainder of it's run. Harlem Shake will do well on the year-end; but it will not beat/match/be-close-to Thrift Shop's performance. Good point, Xivii. I didn't think about that. "Harlem Shake" will probably be number 3 or 4 then. It may squeak out number two but something else will surely beat it. :) Thanks for your insight. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2013 17:51:24 GMT -5
No need to worry about Harlem Shake.
Look at it this way. The first 2 weeks of its run were eligible for the May Billboard Awards.
Gotye still got song of the year.
Thrift Shop had this on lock probably a while a go
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SPRΞΞ
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Post by SPRΞΞ on Jun 23, 2013 23:55:08 GMT -5
Harlem Shake will not be #1 nor "close" to "Thrift Shop"'s points. Here's a nice way of visualizing Harlem Shake's chart run: #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 #4 #6 #13 #17 #22 #30 #38 #50 #53 #54 #63 #60 (18th Week) #60? (Projected 19th Week) #60? (Projected 20th Week - Will Be Removed To Recurrency Following Week) Let's stack all of the Harlem Shake's weeks vs. all of Thrift Shop's best weeks thus far! HS |TS #1 |#1 #1 |#1 #1 |#1 #1 |#1 #1 |#1 #1 |#1 #1 |#2 #1 |#2 #1 |#2 #1 |#2 #1 |#2 #1 |#2 #1 |#2 #4 |#3 #6 |#4 #13|#5 #17|#6 #22|#7 #30|#10 #38|#10 #50|#11 #53|#12 #54|#13 #60|#14 #60|#17 #60|#21 #63|#28 XX | + lots more weeks to come Even when you bring Harlem Shake out to 13 normal-weeks at #1; those extra 7 weeks at #1 are matched by Thrift Shop's weeks at #2. Harlem Shake then gets outdone for the remainder of it's run. Harlem Shake will do well on the year-end; but it will not beat/match/be-close-to Thrift Shop's performance. Good point, Xivii. I didn't think about that. "Harlem Shake" will probably be number 3 or 4 then. It may squeak out number two but something else will surely beat it. :) Thanks for your insight. You're welcome. |
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Spidey
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Post by Spidey on Jun 24, 2013 0:21:54 GMT -5
"Thrift Shop" has this. If anything else were to take #1, it would be "Blurred Lines".
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Post by Living Legend on Jun 24, 2013 16:00:50 GMT -5
Top 10 Prediction:
1. Thrift Shop
2. Blurred Lines
3. Harlem Shake
4. Locked Out Of Heaven
5. I Knew You Were Trouble
6. Ho Hey
7. When I Was Your Man
8. Just Give Me A Reason
9. Can't Hold Us
10. Get Lucky
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Post by Rocky on Jun 24, 2013 16:26:47 GMT -5
Top 10 Prediction: 1. Thrift Shop 2. Blurred Lines 3. Harlem Shake 4. Locked Out Of Heaven 5. I Knew You Were Trouble 6. Ho Hey 7. When I Was Your Man 8. Just Give Me A Reason 9. Can't Hold Us 10. Get Lucky The only thing we know of that list that "I Knew You Were Trouble" won't be higher than "Ho Hey". It's still higher on Hot 100 and IKYWT will probably fall off next week. There's no way it will be #5, if it ends up in the top 10 year end it can't be higher than #10. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2013 18:34:45 GMT -5
damn, i'd forgotten all about ho hey
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SPRΞΞ
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Post by SPRΞΞ on Jun 24, 2013 23:12:37 GMT -5
Radioactive will be up there, too, since its been on the charts for a year now.
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