Songs that had the "8th day effect"

[Matt4319]

Over the past few years, new tracks from pop stars have gotten such a boost on their first day at CHR/Pop radio, that their rolling 7-day spin-counts either (a) rise much more slowly or (b) fall a little or a lot on their 8th day at the format. The song's first day of airplay (in these cases, the day in which they get by far their biggest spin counts during that first week) no longer falls in the most recent 7 days. This is called the "8th day effect". Katy Perry's "Roar" is set to be the latest track to experience this.

List tracks here that fall in this category, with their CHR/Pop stats on:

(a) Day 7 of all airplay;
(b) Day 7 of significant airplay if different from (a);
(c) Day 8 of either all or significant airplay, where the song sees a fall or much slower rise in rolling 7-day spin count.

I'm sure I missed quite a few on my initial sweep.

--- 16 JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE Suit & Tie f/JAY Z 5788 0 5788 53.211 (7th day of all airplay)
97 12 JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE Suit & Tie f/JAY Z 6495 38 6457 59.334 (7th day of significant airplay)
26 18 JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE Suit & Tie f/JAY Z 5373 2053 3320 44.538 (8th day of significant airplay: -1122 spins)

--- 5 LADY GAGA Born This Way 9520 0 9520 74.960 (7th day)
31 6 LADY GAGA Born This Way 8890 1840 7050 64.481 (8th day: -630 spins)

--- 20 RIHANNA You Da One 3394 0 3394 36.963 (7th day)
44 21 RIHANNA You Da One 2929 747 2182 28.878 (8th day: -465 spins)

--- 18 JUSTIN BIEBER Boyfriend 4012 0 4012 33.737 (7th day of all airplay)
180 16 JUSTIN BIEBER Boyfriend 4737 11 4726 39.986 (7th day of significant airplay)
40 16 JUSTIN BIEBER Boyfriend 4754 752 4002 38.915 (8th day of significant airplay: +17 spins)

--- 21 MARIAH CAREY #Beautiful f/Miguel 3429 0 3429 31.943 (7th day)
36 24 MARIAH CAREY #Beautiful f/Miguel 2835 1113 1722 21.583 (8th day: -594 spins)

--- 29 ENRIQUE IGLESIAS Turn The Night Up 2260 0 2260 24.628 (7th day)
37 35 ENRIQUE IGLESIAS Turn The Night Up 1544 975 569 14.213 (8th day: -716 spins)

-- 25 BRUNO MARS Locked Out Of Heaven 2790 0 2790 22.574 (7th day of all airplay)
50 25 BRUNO MARS Locked Out Of Heaven 2905 290 2615 23.292 (7th day of significant airplay)
35 26 BRUNO MARS Locked Out Of Heaven 2451 1165 1286 19.433 (8th day of significant airplay: -454 spins)

[Matt4319]

Going back to 2010, it was funny how people freaked out over updates like these...

-- 34 KATY PERRY California Gurls f/Snoop Dogg 1711 0 1711 16.024 (7th day)
72 28 KATY PERRY California Gurls f/Snoop Dogg 2059 137 1922 17.249 (8th day: +348 spins)
54 25 KATY PERRY California Gurls f/Snoop Dogg 2493 296 2197 19.174 (9th day: +434 spins)
50 22 KATY PERRY California Gurls f/Snoop Dogg 2842 455 2387 20.767 (10th day: +349 spins)

[🅳🅸🆂🅲🅾]

-- 25 JENNIFER LOPEZ Dance Again f/Pitbull 2243 0 2243 22.747 (7th day)
41 26 JENNIFER LOPEZ Dance Again f/Pitbull 1824 820 1004 13.952 (8th day: -419 spins)

But it saw some gains for a few days after that before it began to decline

[Khia]

-- 20 MADONNA Give Me All Your Luvin' 4569 0 4569 39.788 (7th day)
38 22 MADONNA Give Me All Your Luvin' 3965 1005 2960 30.834 (8th day: -604 spins)
25 24 MADONNA Give Me All Your Luvin' 3152 2295 857 21.930 (9th day: -813 spins)
23 25 MADONNA Give Me All Your Luvin' 2708 3206 -498 16.324 (10th day: -444 spins)

-- 25 KATY PERRY Part Of Me 2685 0 2685 23.908 (7th day of all airplay)
114 22 KATY PERRY Part Of Me 3661 36 3625 31.672 (7th day of significant airplay)
37 22 KATY PERRY Part Of Me 3162 1122 2040 25.169 (8th day: -499 spins)

-- 31 NICKI MINAJ Starships 1773 0 1773 18.287 (7th day)
47 35 NICKI MINAJ Starships 1260 759 501 11.904 (8th day: -513 spins)

-- 27 CHRISTINA AGUILERA Your Body 2059 0 2059 18.790 (7th day)
43 32 CHRISTINA AGUILERA Your Body 1647 742 905 10.885 (8th day: -412 spins)

-- 26 ONE DIRECTION Live While We're Young 2151 0 2151 18.445 (7th day)
43 27 ONE DIRECTION Live While We're Young 1965 632 1333 14.568 (8th day: -186 spins)

0 20 KE$HA Die Young 3336 0 3336 31.896 (7th day all)
353 19 KE$HA Die Young 3844 2 3842 36.112 (7th day significant)
37 21 KE$HA Die Young 3404 1028 2376 28.380 (8th day: -440 spins)

-- 24 RIHANNA Diamonds 2812 0 2812 29.279 (7th day)
37 26 RIHANNA Diamonds 2260 1085 1175 19.133 (8th day: -552 spins)

-- 34 ADELE Skyfall 1151 0 1151 12.127 (7th day all)
76 34 ADELE Skyfall 1211 60 1151 12.230 (7th day significant)
41 45 ADELE Skyfall 576 817 -241 2.729 (8th day: -635 spins)

[Matt4319]

Good stuff. And I forgot about Skyfall. Man, that had to be the biggest front-loaded one at all. Half its first-week airplay came on the first day! And I guess Madonna had a 3-day deal which led to it hitting #20 mid-week (on day 7) and never getting back there:

Feb 13, 2012 10:25:44 GMT -5 Codex said:

Day 1 : 1005
Day 2 : 1290
Day 3 : 912
Day 4 : 292
Day 5 : 310
Day 6 : 356
Day 7 : 405
Day 8 : 401 (401-1005 = -604 spins)
Day 9 : 477 (477-1290 = -813 spins)

"Boyfriend" might look like it didn't have the 8th day effect, having actually gained spins in its 8th day, but on day 9 it went back up to gaining 300 spins. Of course, the weird stuff happened after it hit the top 10.

[Devil Marlena Nylund]

What song had the highest debut and then peaked the closest to its debut position?

[Matt4319]

Aug 13, 2013 21:26:16 GMT -5 Devil Marlena Nylund said:

What song had the highest debut and then peaked the closest to its debut position?

Of the songs listed here, 2 songs' official debut positions are within 5 spots of their official peak position. (I'm not counting "Born This Way", which was #5(!) at the end of day 7 and went on to top the chart.) For both of them, their position at the end of day 7 was actually higher than either their mid-week or official peak.

"GMAYL": #25 debut, #20 day 7, #24 official peak (weeks 2/3)
"Skyfall": #40 debut, #34 day 7, #38 official peak (week 3)

A third song didn't debut close to its peak, but the end of day 7 it was within 3 spots of its mid-week peak and within 1 spot of its official peak.

"You Da One": #28 debut, #20 day 7, #17 mid-week peak (during week 11), #19 official peak (weeks 5, 6, 10, 11, 12)


The strongest correlation I can find to predict a song's peak position when they have the 8th day effect is this:
- % of day 7 spins lost on future days vs. peak position. The correlation is 0.63 (the maximum you can get is 1.00). In all cases except "GMAYL", the song only had 1 day of spins lost. "GMAYL" continued to lose spins on days 9 and 10.

Generally, if you can keep from losing more than 15% of your spins on day 8, you've got a great chance of going top 5. (The two exceptions: "Live Like We're Young", by an artist that seems to hit a brick wall with every single; and "Boyfriend", which spent 13 weeks between #9 and #13. 13-11-9-11-10-12-11-9-9-10-10-12-13. If those spins were distributed a bit more traditionally over that 3 month period, "Boyfriend" would have most likely hit the top 5.)

PP % Lost Song
34 -52% Skyfall
20 -41% Give Me All Your Luvin'
03 -29% Starships
19 -20% Your Body
02 -20% Diamonds
17 -19% Dance Again
14 -17% #Beautiful
03 -17% Suit & Tie
01 -16% Locked Out Of Heaven
17 -14% You Da One
03 -14% Part Of Me
01 -11% Die Young
15 -09% Live While We're Young
01 -07% Born This Way
09 +00% Boyfriend

There was little correlation (0.14) between raw number of spins lost and peak position.

[JCMF3]

It looks like 'You Da One' is also an exception to your hypothesis.

[Lozzy]

2012-05-03: 26 +2 USHER Scream 2119 +405 2119 +405 24.842 +3.169 7
2012-05-04: 29 -3 USHER Scream 1742 -377 854 -1265 16.329 -8.513 8

2012-08-21: 16 +1 TAYLOR SWIFT We Are Never Ever Ge... 4863 +363 4592 +92 40.646 +2.710 7
2012-08-22: 20 -4 TAYLOR SWIFT We Are Never Ever Ge... 4117 -746 2379 -2213 32.093 -8.553 8

[No Brake$]

This is a real interesting thread and from my understanding, is only a recent phenomenon. Great work.

[Matt4319]

Aug 14, 2013 8:32:30 GMT -5 JCMF3 said:

It looks like 'You Da One' is also an exception to your hypothesis.

You're right. That one also had an early, but elongated peak period: 28-27-23-22-19-19-20-20-20-19-19-19-22-26-off. So we can throw that one in the "Boyfriend" category (although it wouldn't have hit the top 5, but maybe the 11-14 range).

[Devil Marlena Nylund]

Yeah, this is relatively recent but interesting. When songs had high entries or large jumps initially, they almost always went Top 5 and if they didn't, Top 10 was a minimum. The only exception I can think of offhand before 2009 or so was the then-crazy-odd Prince single Betcha By Golly Wow from 1997 that went something like 23-17-16-17-24-off or something.

[JCMF3]

Aug 14, 2013 13:25:44 GMT -5 Devil Marlena Nylund said:

Yeah, this is relatively recent but interesting. When songs had high entries or large jumps initially, they almost always went Top 5 and if they didn't, Top 10 was a minimum. The only exception I can think of offhand before 2009 or so was the then-crazy-odd Prince single Betcha By Golly Wow from 1997 that went something like 23-17-16-17-24-off or something.

There are examples of this not happening. These are a few but there are plenty more.

Michael Jackson - You Rock My World - The song went 47-28-20-15 then dropped and was off the chart 4 weeks later.

Michael Jackson w/ Janet Jackson - Scream - 29-21-19 and then it fell.

Janet Jackson - Just a Little While - 30-23-20-19 and then fell.

Faith Hill - There You'll Be - Though it debuted at #41, the song vaulted to #29 and was added to every pop station on the panel. However, the song only peaked at #22 2 weeks later.

Britney Spears - Gimme More - 28-21-19-18-18-17 and then dropped.

Britney Spears - My Prerogative - 47-30-25-22-22 and then dropped.

Britney Spears - From The Bottom of My Broken Heart - 50-31-22-20-16 then dropped.

Baz Luhrmann - Everybody's Free To Wear Sunscreen - 36-28-24-18 then dropped.

[Devil Marlena Nylund]

Ok. So there were more examples. It was still a rarity though.

[Devil Marlena Nylund]

Of the songs that had a giant beginning a la Roar right now, how did most of them end up performing? Will Roar perform like Suit & Tie or Locked Out Of Heaven or could it pull a You Da One? Did We Found Love have a giant rise?, since that ended up being a monster.

[TheAzianWill]

I think the most successful promotion of this type has Bruno Mars - Locked Out Of Heaven, it's #1 Year To Date

[Matt4319]

"Roar" lost just 5% of its spins on its day 8.

-- 15 KATY PERRY Roar 6098 0 6098 51.544 (7th day of all airplay)
49 15 KATY PERRY Roar 6575 553 6022 53.270 (7th day of significant airplay)
33 15 KATY PERRY Roar 6252 1839 4413 47.774 (8th day: -323 spins)

Spins by day:
8/10: 553 (Leak day)
8/11: 1286
8/12: 840
8/13: 741
8/14: 799
8/15: 936
8/16: 943
8/17: 1030
8/18: 963