Soundcl🕤ck
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Post by Soundcl🕤ck on Oct 14, 2018 6:43:15 GMT -5
I find it weird that the year end chart is dominated by so many pop songs that barely made the weekly top 10. Did they all have such great longevity compared to the rap songs? Like, 9/15 of the top 15 in these predictions are pop (counting Meant To Be and Finesse). and 6/15 are Drake and Post Malone
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Oct 14, 2018 6:51:35 GMT -5
I find it weird that the year end chart is dominated by so many pop songs that barely made the weekly top 10. Did they all have such great longevity compared to the rap songs? Like, 9/15 of the top 15 in these predictions are pop (counting Meant To Be and Finesse). and 6/15 are Drake and Post Malone That would be reversed if someone counted Cardi B in the rap (9 rap, 6 pop)
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Soundcl🕤ck
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Post by Soundcl🕤ck on Oct 14, 2018 6:57:41 GMT -5
and 6/15 are Drake and Post Malone That would be reversed if someone counted Cardi B in the rap (9 rap, 6 pop) I think those 6 are Psycho, rockstar, God's Plan, Nice For What, In My Feelings and I Like It.
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Oct 14, 2018 7:00:34 GMT -5
That would be reversed if someone counted Cardi B in the rap (9 rap, 6 pop) I think those 6 are Psycho, rockstar, God's Plan, Nice For What, In My Feelings and I Like It. Post, Drake, and Cardi all had 3 songs each in the Top 15: Post: rockstar, Psycho, Better Now Drake: God's Plan, Nice For What, In My Feelings Cardi: I Like It, Finesse, Girls Like You
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Soundcl🕤ck
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Post by Soundcl🕤ck on Oct 14, 2018 7:02:50 GMT -5
I think those 6 are Psycho, rockstar, God's Plan, Nice For What, In My Feelings and I Like It. Post, Drake, and Cardi all had 3 songs each in the Top 15: Post: rockstar, Psycho, Better Now Drake: God's Plan, Nice For What, In My Feelings Cardi: I Like It, Finesse, Girls Like You Yeah, but Better Now, Girls Like You and Finesse are more pop than rap.
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Oct 14, 2018 7:04:40 GMT -5
Post, Drake, and Cardi all had 3 songs each in the Top 15: Post: rockstar, Psycho, Better Now Drake: God's Plan, Nice For What, In My Feelings Cardi: I Like It, Finesse, Girls Like You Yeah, but Better Now, Girls Like You and Finesse are more pop than rap. So that ends up with only 6 are being rap. Also add in that the other 2 Cardi songs are only features, while Better Now is just pop-sounding.
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mdj
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Post by mdj on Oct 14, 2018 8:00:49 GMT -5
Yeah, but Better Now, Girls Like You and Finesse are more pop than rap. So that ends up with only 6 are being rap. Also add in that the other 2 Cardi songs are only features, while Better Now is just pop-sounding. What about Lucid Dreams?
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thelegends
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Post by thelegends on Oct 14, 2018 10:42:30 GMT -5
I think those 6 are Psycho, rockstar, God's Plan, Nice For What, In My Feelings and I Like It. Post, Drake, and Cardi all had 3 songs each in the Top 15: Post: rockstar, Psycho, Better Now Drake: God's Plan, Nice For What, In My Feelings Cardi: I Like It, Finesse, Girls Like You Issa record
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fhas
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Post by fhas on Oct 14, 2018 12:37:05 GMT -5
LAST WEEK'S ESTIMATED REAL POINTS - Billboard Hot 100 TOP 10 - October 13th 2018Formula: sales/6 + airplay/7000 + paid streams/1500 + free streams/2250 + programmed streams/3000 # | +/- | Song | Points | Sales | Airplay | On-Demand | YouTube | Programmed | Total Streams | +/- (%) | 1 | = | Girls Like You | 32,300 | 18.0k | 125.9m | 7.9m | 10.7m | 4.5m | 23.3m | -3.7 | 2 | NEW | Mona Lisa | 31,400 | 22.0k | 0.0m | 43.0m | 0.0m | 0.0m | 43.0m |
| 3 | -1 | Lucid Dreams | 29,900 | 11.5k | 70.9m | 15.2m | 13.9m | 6.6m | 35.8m | -4.4 | 4 | -1 | Better Now | 26,900 | 13.3k | 101.0m | 10.9m | 3.0m | 6.0m | 20.0m | -3.7 | 5 | NEW | Don't Cry | 25,900 | 16.0k | 0.0m | 36.0m | 0.0m | 0.0m | 36.0m |
| 6 | = | SICKO MODE | 23,700 | 10.1k | 41.1m | 18.2m | 7.6m | 4.2m | 30.0m | -3.2 | 7 | NEW | Uproar | 23,400 | 13.5k | 8.0m | 30.9m | 0.0m | 0.0m | 30.9m |
| 8 | +2 | Youngblood | 23,300 | 18.1k | 92.9m | 8.0m | 2.9m | 1.8m | 12.8m | +2.0 | 9 | -5 | In My Feelings | 23,000 | 10.1k | 38.3m | 11.8m | 14.4m | 6.0m | 32.2m | -14.0 | 10 | NEW | Let It Fly | 22,500 | 12.2k | 0.0m | 31.6m
| 0.0m | 0.0m | 31.6m |
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Sources: Hot 100's article Billboard Chart Beat HDD's Streaming Songs Chart (On-Demand) HDD's Revenue Chart Kworb's Overall AI YouTube Insights Pandora Top Spins Chart @chartdata (Twitter)
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fhas
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Post by fhas on Oct 14, 2018 12:37:50 GMT -5
Highlights of the week:
- Girls Like You¹: weakest #1 of the Streaming Era (March 2, 2013-present) using raw points (need to use adjusted points for a better comparison); - Girls Like You²: #19 streaming - lowest position ever on the Streaming Songs Chart for a Hot 100 #1 (previous lowest positions: #13 Girls Like You; #10 - Happy 2x, Psycho, Girls Like You); - Girls Like You³: 18k downloads - first song to top the Hot 100 selling less than 20k this decade (probably the first since 2005 or 2006). I'm sure this "record" is gonna be broken soon;
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samo🦕
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Post by samo🦕 on Oct 14, 2018 12:39:18 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure this is the first week I've actually wanted the song at #2 to overtake GLY.
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owenlovesmusic
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Post by owenlovesmusic on Oct 14, 2018 13:58:41 GMT -5
0.0m at Youtube for Mona Lisa!
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fhas
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Post by fhas on Oct 14, 2018 20:57:59 GMT -5
0.0m at Youtube for Mona Lisa! YT Insights updated the numbers for Lil Wayne on Monday so I don't think they reported the numbers to Billboard because 43M streams (on-demand + YouTube) is too low (44-44.5M would've made sense with YT data).
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owenlovesmusic
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Post by owenlovesmusic on Oct 14, 2018 20:59:35 GMT -5
0.0m at Youtube for Mona Lisa! YT Insights updated the numbers for Lil Wayne on Monday so I don't think they reported the numbers to Billboard because 43M streams (on-demand + YouTube) is too low (44-44.5M would've made sense with YT data). If they had reported the numbers, would Mona Lisa have been #1?
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fhas
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Post by fhas on Oct 14, 2018 21:04:32 GMT -5
YT Insights updated the numbers for Lil Wayne on Monday so I don't think they reported the numbers to Billboard because 43M streams (on-demand + YouTube) is too low (44-44.5M would've made sense with YT data). If they had reported the numbers, would Mona Lisa have been #1? I think GLY would still hold at #1 by 200-300 points.
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brady47
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Post by brady47 on Oct 14, 2018 21:51:08 GMT -5
The airplay weighting increase in Billboard's formula definitely helped airplay hits like "Delicate" and "Back to You" - they had lower peaks but are going to have relatively high year end placements because they're still chugging along on radio
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thelegends
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Post by thelegends on Oct 15, 2018 13:02:48 GMT -5
The airplay weighting increase in Billboard's formula definitely helped airplay hits like "Delicate" and "Back to You" - they had lower peaks but are going to have relatively high year end placements because they're still chugging along on radio Yeah, radio's carrying them Also this is my 900th post. 70 posts in 3 days.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Oct 16, 2018 11:28:14 GMT -5
Looks like Mona Lisa will be the highest charting song this year to not make the year-end top 100.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Oct 16, 2018 16:40:02 GMT -5
We'll see if it makes the year end hot 100 for 2019. The last song to miss the year end list with a 2 peak was We Are The World 25 For Haiti in 2010 and the last song to miss with a #1 peak was Fantasia's Idol song in 2004 (bizarrely she made it with a 21 peak in 2005 though)
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Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2018 18:47:02 GMT -5
Doubt it as there's a 60 pt difference with values for Psycho likely to go under 10 per week very shortly. More likely is that I Like It will catch up and pass one or both of them.
Here's my predictions/estimations based on simple weighted scoring by position with no reference to sales, streams, etc.
If nothing else it provides a comparison to how much individual weeks affect final chart position.
I think the position-based point system is less accurate than the one fhas is using. Billboard uses real points so Fhas is gonna be more accurate
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Oct 16, 2018 19:03:53 GMT -5
It's certainly very possible. But even fhas says he's only 95% accurate.
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Post by rockgolf on Oct 17, 2018 9:23:40 GMT -5
We'll see if it makes the year end hot 100 for 2019. I strongly doubt it'll even be on the first week of Billboard year 2019, e.g. Dec 2018.
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Oct 18, 2018 6:10:56 GMT -5
We'll see if it makes the year end hot 100 for 2019. I strongly doubt it'll even be on the first week of Billboard year 2019, e.g. Dec 2018.Unless it falls so bad, Mona Lisa in the 2019 YE is certain.
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samo🦕
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Post by samo🦕 on Oct 18, 2018 14:41:17 GMT -5
I strongly doubt it'll even be on the first week of Billboard year 2019, e.g. Dec 2018. Unless it falls so bad, Mona Lisa in the 2019 YE is certain.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 18, 2018 14:53:30 GMT -5
We should also keep an eye out for Ring.
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thelegends
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Post by thelegends on Oct 18, 2018 17:09:36 GMT -5
Unless it falls so bad, Mona Lisa in the 2019 YE is certain. Sadly, it happened.
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Post by rockgolf on Oct 19, 2018 9:20:11 GMT -5
After dropping from #2 to #23 in its 2nd week, is there any path for Mona Lisa to come back? I can't see it ever going back up again unless there's a major video.
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Oct 20, 2018 0:29:40 GMT -5
After dropping from #2 to #23 in its 2nd week, is there any path for Mona Lisa to come back? I can't see it ever going back up again unless there's a major video. A music video could have Mona Lisa rise up again.
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Marcus
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Post by Marcus on Oct 20, 2018 1:17:55 GMT -5
After dropping from #2 to #23 in its 2nd week, is there any path for Mona Lisa to come back? I can't see it ever going back up again unless there's a major video. A music video could have Mona Lisa rise up again. I mean a video for Uproar just came out and since that's a song I think could stick around pretty long (plus it's just a personal fave so bias), I'd keep on the lookout for that. There's also a video for Sicko Mode now so I guess that'll get a huge boost now too
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Oct 20, 2018 12:53:04 GMT -5
In the absence of any other year-end-to-date charts getting posted so far this week, here's my latest estimates. This marks the first week on my list that Despacito got shoved out of the top 100. And next week Girls Like Me should move ahead of The Middle. But this week's #2 & #3 (Lucid Dreams and Better Now) are still significantly behind In My Feelings and won't move up next week. This week's #4 (Drip Too Hard) is at #151 on my year-end.
Last week's #2, Mona Lisa, which collapsed to #23 is at #150 on the list.
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