Clode
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Post by Clode on Oct 11, 2015 6:26:47 GMT -5
I remember you saying before that See You Again would be #2 this year based on chart run, but if Thinking Out Loud is #4 based on chart tun, then out of curiosity, what would be #3? Trap Queen? Sugar? Shut Up and Dance? Obviously Trap Queen...(see my d-e update thread and know more) You know decade-end chart is a paradise for top 10 stayers and no. 1 stayers right? And people don't believe that my d-e prediction is more accurate than Daniel's but when Billboard's gonna reveal the official one then they're gonna be changing their beautiful minds! Obviously yours is more accurate i knew that from the very beginning that i saw you post your decade-end prediction, Anyway have you seen the Billboard article on Rihanna's Top 10 Billboard Hits and guess what? The Monster is ahead of Love The Way You Lie i don't know why but for some reason it was ranked higher...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2015 9:48:02 GMT -5
Runs at #1 can be deceiving in terms of chart points and/or chart runs when comparing songs. I can't say that enough.
And also, Billboard's "all time" lists use an inverted point system based on rank.... but they do add weight to songs based on things like time of release, etc.
Maybe everyone knows this stuff... but confusion and "i don't know how that could be" seems to keep popping up in here on the regular.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2015 9:50:49 GMT -5
I didn't know there would suddenly be an Eminem remix AND a Nicki Minaj remix of The Hills.... so those could be a game changer for The Hills in terms of longevity at #1 and/or YE top 10 possibilities that I've been talking about. Not sure they'll make THAT much of a difference, but the Eminem version is top 5 right now.
Well played, The Weeknd, well played. Drake gonna be mad.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2015 10:04:39 GMT -5
With Sugar having now passed Blank Space for the top 5 berth, I think that this is actually the first time ever where the year end top 5 has more songs to not peak at #1 than those to peak at #1! :o If my prediction is correct, that is. It seems that every year there are more and more non-#1 songs that are technically bigger hits than the #1s. It would be interesting to see what the general public thinks is a bigger hit if they were given a list of song vs. song match-ups... or a list of finalists to put in order.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2015 10:11:22 GMT -5
I remember you saying before that See You Again would be #2 this year based on chart run, but if Thinking Out Loud is #4 based on chart tun, then out of curiosity, what would be #3? Trap Queen? Sugar? Shut Up and Dance? Obviously Trap Queen...(see my d-e update thread and know more) You know decade-end chart is a paradise for top 10 stayers and no. 1 stayers right? And people don't believe that my d-e prediction is more accurate than Daniel's but when Billboard's gonna reveal the official one then they're gonna be changing their beautiful minds! Does Daniel use chart points for DE charts? Cuz then you're right, that won't be aligned with Billboard's. This is just fact, so there should be no confusion about it, and I would think Daniel probably knows this as well. Given the changes in methodology, chart points change... like they did this year... so it would end up being inaccurate or skewed toward certain chart eras. This is why an inverted system with weighting is used, and will probably always be used for multi-year and decade long surveys.
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Mr. Thonk Eyes
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Post by Mr. Thonk Eyes on Oct 11, 2015 10:17:41 GMT -5
With Sugar having now passed Blank Space for the top 5 berth, I think that this is actually the first time ever where the year end top 5 has more songs to not peak at #1 than those to peak at #1! :o If my prediction is correct, that is. It seems that every year there are more and more non-#1 songs that are technically bigger hits than the #1s. It would be interesting to see what the general public thinks is a bigger hit if they were given a list of song vs. song match-ups... or a list of finalists to put in order. If your prediction of Sugar being #5 is wrong because Shut Up and Dance is there instead, history would still be made because SUAD didn't make #1 either. And you make a really good point about a lot of non-#1's being bigger than #1 songs, it would be interesting if there was a poll on pulse asking members to see which was the bigger hit between a #2 peaking song vs. a #1 peaking song.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2015 14:14:51 GMT -5
I have a pretty significant point gap between Blank Space and Shut Up and Dance... over 60k. And I have Sugar only 4k ahead of Blank Space right now. Because of it being such a small amount, I'm not going to be surprised if Blank Space were to ultimately end up at #5 according to Billboard. It could go either way, even if Sugar keeps hanging on 6 more weeks.
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Mr. Thonk Eyes
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Post by Mr. Thonk Eyes on Oct 11, 2015 14:19:08 GMT -5
I have a pretty significant point gap between Blank Space and Shut Up and Dance... over 60k. And I have Sugar only 4k ahead of Blank Space right now. Because of it being such a small amount, I'm not going to be surprised if Blank Space were to ultimately end up at #5 according to Billboard. True, but Sugar would have to drop out like this week in order for the gap to remain that small, and it doesn't look too likely that Sugar will drop out this week, although it is a possibility. I actually don't recall the exact gap Daniel had between Rude and Talk Dirty at the end of last year, but it was something like 3-4k, and he had them mixed up, so I guess anything is still possible.
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Dylan :)
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Post by Dylan :) on Oct 11, 2015 14:52:07 GMT -5
I have a pretty significant point gap between Blank Space and Shut Up and Dance... over 60k. And I have Sugar only 4k ahead of Blank Space right now. Because of it being such a small amount, I'm not going to be surprised if Blank Space were to ultimately end up at #5 according to Billboard. True, but Sugar would have to drop out like this week in order for the gap to remain that small, and it doesn't look too likely that Sugar will drop out this week, although it is a possibility. I actually don't recall the exact gap Daniel had between Rude and Talk Dirty at the end of last year, but it was something like 3-4k, and he had them mixed up, so I guess anything is still possible. According to Kworb, down 2% in sales and 1.211m in AI, and idk about streaming. Hopefully that would be enough to knock it off this week. Same Old Love could overtake it, Lose My Mind and Levels could could hold.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2015 16:31:07 GMT -5
I have a pretty significant point gap between Blank Space and Shut Up and Dance... over 60k. And I have Sugar only 4k ahead of Blank Space right now. Because of it being such a small amount, I'm not going to be surprised if Blank Space were to ultimately end up at #5 according to Billboard. It could go either way, even if Sugar keeps hanging on 6 more weeks. I'm not seeing "Blank Space" finishing in the top 5 at all. I think even "Cheerleader" could surpass it (though that song won't end up any higher than 6th), and Sugar and Shut Up and Dance's longevity will be enough to surpass it, even though it was #1 for 6 weeks. 6-10 seems like a more realistic finish to me, especially since both "Sugar" and "Shut Up and Dance" will accumulate more points.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2015 18:48:13 GMT -5
I wasn't really thinking about SUAD potentially getting ahead of BS (and/or Sugar) when I said #5... so to that I agree is a possibility. What I was primarily trying to say is that Sugar and Blank Space are really close right now, and I can't be sure Sugar is already ahead of BS on Billboard's official point tally (as it is on mine), let alone say it's for sure going to be on the Hot 100 next week to accumulate more points. So the win between those two could go either way for a few more weeks while their points are still too close to call. And SUAD adds a 3rd competitor to the equation, although it has a bit to go.
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THINKIN BOUT YOU
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Post by THINKIN BOUT YOU on Oct 11, 2015 22:28:30 GMT -5
Obviously Trap Queen...(see my d-e update thread and know more) You know decade-end chart is a paradise for top 10 stayers and no. 1 stayers right? And people don't believe that my d-e prediction is more accurate than Daniel's but when Billboard's gonna reveal the official one then they're gonna be changing their beautiful minds! Obviously yours is more accurate i knew that from the very beginning that i saw you post your decade-end prediction, Anyway have you seen the Billboard article on Rihanna's Top 10 Billboard Hits and guess what? The Monster is ahead of Love The Way You Lie i don't know why but for some reason it was ranked higher... It was 99.9999999% billboard's error!!! Dude, seriously? You believe the very billboard.com who made "High By The Beach" debut at no.7 at first instead of no.51? They have such a confederacy of beautiful minds that have nothing to lose! Sometimes their quality is fit for the birds that if you work for them you can top everyone else off!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2015 8:19:01 GMT -5
Worth It got ahead of Hey Mama by a mere 180 points.... so that's definitely NOT a sure thing.
Hit The Quan, Downtown and Ex's & Oh's are all still probably 2 (maybe 3) weeks out of making the top 100. So next week's only new entry MIGHT be Planes... which would need to maintain it's bullet to stay on the Hot 100 (20 weeks this week). Buy Me A Boat expires after this week.
It's really getting down to the wire for new entries with only 5 weeks left. They need to kick it into a higher gear. Like I'm Gonna Lose You is still looking good... but that might be it. If nothing else makes it in after LIGLY, then Throw Some Mo or Sangria would end up at #100 on my list, depending on the fate of Planes.
Shut Up and Dance needs to maintain it's current point totals for all remaining weeks to have a shot at beating Blank Space... and even then, it could go either way given the margin of error. It could be really close.
Likewise, Cheerleader will need to maintain it's current weekly points for 5 more weeks to have a shot at Earned It's total (and Earned It would need to fall off next week, too). Given Cheerleader's downward tracking and Earned It's refusal to surrender, it's not necessarily looking good. Not out of the question though.
Watch Me will go top 10 next week. Can't Feel My Face is still 2 weeks away from LMLYD. The Hills should be able to surpass Shake It Off next week.
Lean On will move up to #18 next week. Where Are U Now is within range of All About That Bass in the next week or two.
Fight Song will probably end up ahead of Post To Be next week.
Good For You will likely climb another notch next week, ahead of Time of Our Lives. Betty Wap's 679 is right behind it.
Photograph is aiming for Centuries next week.
What Do You Mean could jump as high as #44 next week. Locked Away will go top 50, while Hotline Bling hitting the top 60 is possible.
Looks like El Perdon will likely make my final YE 100 prediction (and potentially the official chart), but this could be its final week on the Hot 100. It appears to be ready to start dropping at radio and that'll make it lose its bullet. Still - amazing run for such a low peaking song.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2015 11:47:05 GMT -5
I was looking at my spreadsheet because I wanna add number of weeks this chart year onto each song, and I discovered that Don't by Ed Sheehan's 12/6/2014 point total was noticeably incorrect somehow. It had been given over 14000 extra points for that week. So I corrected it... which is why it dropped below Heartbeat Song this week.
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Dylan :)
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Post by Dylan :) on Oct 13, 2015 12:28:32 GMT -5
Go Worth It!!
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Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2015 12:51:35 GMT -5
Worth It got ahead of Hey Mama by a mere 180 points.... so that's definitely NOT a sure thing. Hit The Quan, Downtown and Ex's & Oh's are all still probably 2 (maybe 3) weeks out of making the top 100. So next week's only new entry MIGHT be Planes... which would need to maintain it's bullet to stay on the Hot 100 (20 weeks this week). Buy Me A Boat expires after this week. It's really getting down to the wire for new entries with only 5 weeks left. They need to kick it into a higher gear. Like I'm Gonna Lose You is still looking good... but that might be it. If nothing else makes it in after LIGLY, then Throw Some Mo or Sangria would end up at #100 on my list, depending on the fate of Planes. Shut Up and Dance needs to maintain it's current point totals for all remaining weeks to have a shot at beating Blank Space... and even then, it could go either way given the margin of error. It could be really close. Likewise, Cheerleader will need to maintain it's current weekly points for 5 more weeks to have a shot at Earned It's total (and Earned It would need to fall off next week, too). Given Cheerleader's downward tracking and Earned It's refusal to surrender, it's not necessarily looking good. Not out of the question though. Watch Me will go top 10 next week. Can't Feel My Face is still 2 weeks away from LMLYD. The Hills should be able to surpass Shake It Off next week. Lean On will move up to #18 next week. Where Are U Now is within range of All About That Bass in the next week or two. Fight Song will probably end up ahead of Post To Be next week. Good For You will likely climb another notch next week, ahead of Time of Our Lives. Betty Wap's 679 is right behind it. Photograph is aiming for Centuries next week. What Do You Mean could jump as high as #44 next week. Locked Away will go top 50, while Hotline Bling hitting the top 60 is possible. Looks like El Perdon will likely make my final YE 100 prediction (and potentially the official chart), but this could be its final week on the Hot 100. It appears to be ready to start dropping at radio and that'll make it lose its bullet. Still - amazing run for such a low peaking song. You really think "El Perdon" can make it, because with such a low peak I'm not sure if even the weeks it's spent will be enough to get it into the year end list, so what other factors do you think would help it get in?
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jtd Thee Stallion
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Post by jtd Thee Stallion on Oct 13, 2015 13:01:13 GMT -5
My first post! But my question is does Flex have a chance to finish top 50?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2015 13:10:16 GMT -5
Nope, it peaked too low to get in the top 50. will be very high in the bottom 50.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2015 13:20:06 GMT -5
billboardfan1 - i've commented/responded to you several times... and i don't recall you ever responding to what i'm saying to you about this chart.... so i still don't think you understand how billboard compiles the year end chart. it's all about weekly chart point totals from sales, radio and streaming, nothing else. peak does not matter. number of weeks do not matter. i mean, obviously they matter in a sense, but its solely about how many points they acquired in those weeks... which varies. longevity can trump peak quite easily, and vice versa.
so, given that i track ALL weekly point estimates, yes I really think El Perdon can make it... because the points are there. that's why it ranks where it ranks. there's nothing subjective about it. it's pure math.
i think you look at things in a "this spent this many weeks in the top (whatever) so it will make it in"... or "this wasn't even in the top (whatever) for (this many) weeks and only peaked at #(?) so I don't think it can make it in"..... and those scenarios aren't indicative of how this process works.
all of that said, my points are estimates, so i'm not going to be 100% accurate in the end. that's impossible without a whole lot of luck. but the point is, i understand the formula behind the chart, which is why i keep track and post my estimates as predictions.
please acknowledge this so i don't have to keep on like a broken record.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2015 13:20:48 GMT -5
Nope, it peaked too low to get in the top 50. will be very high in the bottom 50. see my response above. peak does not matter, boo.
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MTSChart21
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Post by MTSChart21 on Oct 13, 2015 13:21:41 GMT -5
I didn't know there would suddenly be an Eminem remix AND a Nicki Minaj remix of The Hills.... so those could be a game changer for The Hills in terms of longevity at #1 and/or YE top 10 possibilities that I've been talking about. Not sure they'll make THAT much of a difference, but the Eminem version is top 5 right now. Well played, The Weeknd, well played. Drake gonna be mad. This will make for an interesting couple of months. The Weeknd has the remixes and Drake will have the music video to help. The top 3 should easily have these 3 songs by November: The Weeknd- The Hills, Drake- Hotline Bling, Ariana Grande- Focus. Let me make my prediction for this scenario. Drake's music video should be out this week, and it should start having a big effect on Hotline Bling's run starting on the November 7th chart if Drake releases it this week I think The Weeknd's remixes should only do well for this week and start falling off next week. Prediction: The Hills easily gets the #1 spot this week. And next week, the remixes will still be in top 50 (Eminem Remix: Top 30, Nicki Remix: Top 50) but they will be dying off. However, the sales that the remixes will still be getting should keep it on top for the November 7th chart. On the November 14th chart, it should be really close, but I think Hotline Bling will come up just short to The Hills, but on the November 21st chart, it should pass The Hills because of the Hotline Bling video and The Hills dying off in sales. As for Ariana Grande, I see her debuting at #3 or #4 then being at #3 for a couple weeks. Maybe on the December 5th chart, Focus will be able to pass The Hills for number 2. Let's see if I am correct. I am pretty confident in this happening. Also, here is my big prediction for Focus: It will peak at #2 and I dont see it staying around as long as Problem did. Maybe 6-7 weeks in the top 3 then a slow fall for 2 months. After those 2 months, it starts a quicker fall.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2015 13:23:59 GMT -5
My first post! But my question is does Flex have a chance to finish top 50? yes, it does have a chance... but not a very good one for a couple reasons: 1. there are bigger songs below it that are going to jump over it in the coming weeks (What Do You Mean, Locked Away, Hotline Bling, Stitches, etc.) 2. it may not acquire many more points since it could fall off the hot 100 at any time now.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2015 13:29:48 GMT -5
Broccoli, I aknowledge what you said, I think I'm starting to understand now, I was just asking you why you thought it would make it in, didn't really say there wasn't a possiblity, just wasn't really sure.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2015 13:33:18 GMT -5
Broccoli, I aknowledge what you said, I think I'm starting to understand now, I was just asking you why you thought it would make it in, didn't really say there wasn't a possiblity. cool. i hope it's clear now... it's not about why or how i think it will make it in... it's just a purely mathematical system/chart that doesn't require me to think or make decisions outside of rounding weekly point estimates.
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Post by leredlum on Oct 13, 2015 13:52:04 GMT -5
I'm guessing, if it makes it, El Perdon would be the lowest charting song on an YE List.
Ooc, what is the lowest peaking song to make the YE?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2015 13:57:04 GMT -5
that currently is Schoolboy Q's "Studio", which peaked at #38 last year.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2015 14:05:04 GMT -5
that currently is Schoolboy Q's "Studio", which peaked at #38 last year. is that the lowest EVER? if so, is there are place where this info is compiled?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2015 14:25:01 GMT -5
that currently is Schoolboy Q's "Studio", which peaked at #38 last year. is that the lowest EVER? if so, is there are place where this info is compiled? source: en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Studio_(song)"It appeared on 2014 Billboard Year End Chart at #96 despite only peaking at #38, making it the lowest-peaking song to be included on Billboard Year End chart."
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2015 14:38:25 GMT -5
is that the lowest EVER? if so, is there are place where this info is compiled? source: en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Studio_(song)"It appeared on 2014 Billboard Year End Chart at #96 despite only peaking at #38, making it the lowest-peaking song to be included on Billboard Year End chart." Thanks. Sounds about right. It's missing a key word so it is a little vague. "...to be included on (a? any? this?) Billboard Year End chart."
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2015 16:34:42 GMT -5
Unless something else miraculously falls off next week, Taylor will not only be the only female in the top 10, but Blank Space will be the only song not still active on the Hot 100. So insane.
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