inverse
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Your mind is in disturbia...
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Post by inverse on May 30, 2016 17:25:41 GMT -5
^ Waaaiittt... how can Sorry or Love Yourself NOT be number 1? What's gonna block them? Hello? Only if there was a wild miscalculation Work? Maybe if it stays on the chart for the rest of the year, would not bet on that though No way 7 Years gets in front Panda, Can't Stop The Feeling, and One Dance would need a TON of longevity (probably in the top 10 still by November) in order to even be considered.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2016 18:11:28 GMT -5
There's just no way of knowing how Love Yourself's longevity will pan out. It's my odds on pick to win if I had to bet. Once it hits #1, I don't think it's going anywhere - anytime soon... if ever. It'll have > 1m points in the not too distant future.
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inverse
2x Platinum Member
Your mind is in disturbia...
Joined: December 2015
Posts: 2,088
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Post by inverse on May 31, 2016 13:14:42 GMT -5
Send My Love To Your New Lover is back at 26 so for whoever said that it would make a better hit single, time to see how it goes
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Dylan :)
Diamond Member
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Post by Dylan :) on Jun 1, 2016 9:32:07 GMT -5
Any predictions for where NO will finish on your estimated list? I wouldn't be surprised if it finished out below LIGLY.
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inverse
2x Platinum Member
Your mind is in disturbia...
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Post by inverse on Jun 1, 2016 9:33:07 GMT -5
How's it looking for Humble And Kind?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2016 9:48:22 GMT -5
Any predictions for where NO will finish on your estimated list? I wouldn't be surprised if it finished out below LIGLY. That's a tough one. Obviously it still has 8 more potential weeks to score points, and it needs about 50,000 to beat LIGLY. It might be close, might not, but I think if it manages to stay on for 20 weeks, it'll do it.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2016 9:52:26 GMT -5
How's it looking for Humble And Kind? It definitely needs to exceed 20 weeks, which doesn't seem likely considering it has peaked at radio at week 16.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2016 10:35:02 GMT -5
Point difference between the two Bieber songs at the top?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2016 10:55:33 GMT -5
Point difference between the two Bieber songs at the top? roughly 25k
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2016 12:10:34 GMT -5
How long would take for SOAB, the first active song not on the top100 estimate, to get there? This doesn't mean either that the songs below it will take longer to achieve that, right?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2016 12:26:03 GMT -5
How long would take for SOAB, the first active song not on the top100 estimate, to get there? This doesn't mean either that the songs below it will take longer to achieve that, right? There's about a 34,000-point difference between SOAB and AOAL. And no, songs move at their own pace, if that's what you mean. For example, Close could make it in about 3 more weeks, whereas SOAB probably won't make it at all.
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Post by chicken077 on Jun 1, 2016 13:32:18 GMT -5
How is it looking for Wild Things? It seems to be stalling around 50 on the BB hot 100 for quite a while. Do you guys think it can make the year end chart?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2016 13:43:53 GMT -5
How is it looking for Wild Things? It seems to be stalling around 50 on the BB hot 100 for quite a while. Do you guys think it can make the year end chart? Nah. It's got a long road ahead and it doesn't look very promising at radio, unfortunately. It seems to be peaking.
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Post by Mike is BAD on Jun 1, 2016 14:31:50 GMT -5
Any chance My House can book Top 15 soon or 7 Years? What about Stressed Out in the Top 10? What about Panda next week, can it get to Top 20/25?
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inverse
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Your mind is in disturbia...
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Post by inverse on Jun 1, 2016 14:51:09 GMT -5
Also what would it take for Pillowtalk to finish in the year end top 9? It's gonna pass Stitches and someday probably MMAI. The reason I ask is because Zayn already got number 1 even though 1D couldn't, it would be cool if Pillowtalk finished higher on year end than a 1D song ever did. (What Makes U Beautiful finished at 10)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2016 15:01:21 GMT -5
Any chance My House can book Top 15 soon or 7 Years? What about Stressed Out in the Top 10? What about Panda next week, can it get to Top 20/25? My House top 15 in 4-6 weeks, same for Stressed Out in top 10. Panda will likely go top 25 next week and top 20 in 2 weeks.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2016 15:01:54 GMT -5
Any predictions for where NO will finish on your estimated list? I wouldn't be surprised if it finished out below LIGLY. That's a tough one. Obviously it still has 8 more potential weeks to score points, and it needs about 50,000 to beat LIGLY. It might be close, might not, but I think if it manages to stay on for 20 weeks, it'll do it. Realistically, is it gonna stay on that long? At the rate it's tanking now, I give it another 2 weeks before it's off the chart.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2016 15:03:03 GMT -5
Also what would it take for Pillowtalk to finish in the year end top 9? It's gonna pass Stitches and someday probably MMAI. The reason I ask is because Zayn already got number 1 even though 1D couldn't, it would be cool if Pillowtalk finished higher on year end than a 1D song ever did. (What Makes U Beautiful finished at 10) PILLOWTALK needs around 275k more points to be in last year's top 10. That's a tall order.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2016 15:05:31 GMT -5
That's a tough one. Obviously it still has 8 more potential weeks to score points, and it needs about 50,000 to beat LIGLY. It might be close, might not, but I think if it manages to stay on for 20 weeks, it'll do it. Realistically, is it gonna stay on that long? At the rate it's tanking now, I give it another 2 weeks before it's off the chart. I guess I feel like despite its premature demise at radio, it may have enough juice in it between streaming and sales to hang out in the lower part of the chart for several more weeks. Maybe not. I'm thinking along the lines of Piece By Piece... just without the support coming from radio. I'm totally fine with it leaving the building next week, for what it's worth. :)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2016 15:48:12 GMT -5
Realistically, is it gonna stay on that long? At the rate it's tanking now, I give it another 2 weeks before it's off the chart. I guess I feel like despite its premature demise at radio, it may have enough juice in it between streaming and sales to hang out in the lower part of the chart for several more weeks. Maybe not. I'm thinking along the lines of Piece By Piece... just without the support coming from radio. I'm totally fine with it leaving the building next week, for what it's worth. :) It's not just radio. Even its sales and streaming are pretty much done at this point. Lost over 800k on Spotify this week (now has around 1.6 million left), and is steadily losing sales too. Maybe it has a bit of youtube left (not sure since I can't find the US statistics). I think people just don't want to listen to this song any more. Edit: Never mind. It had over a 25% drop on youtube during this tracking week. Looks like they're getting sick of it too. Gives me hope that the abomination known as Me Too might end up flopping.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2016 22:18:54 GMT -5
Just Like Fire is on its way, yay I want Wild Things to make it but it's at that point in its life where it will go up a bit or die.
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WILL
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Post by WILL on Jun 2, 2016 20:04:08 GMT -5
YE predictions for Sound of Silence? Do you think it can make the final cut?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 3, 2016 9:52:54 GMT -5
YE predictions for Sound of Silence? Do you think it can make the final cut? Not unless it turns into a solid pop hit and starts making more of an impact - which could still happen. It would be a nice, unlikely summer hit if it does pull through.
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Mr. Thonk Eyes
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Post by Mr. Thonk Eyes on Jun 5, 2016 13:06:17 GMT -5
My prediction for the Year-End Top 5 of all the component charts:
Radio: 1. Love Yourself 2. Hello 3. CAN'T STOP THE FEELING! 4. Sorry 5. Stressed Out
Digital: 1. Hello 2. Love Yourself 3. My House 4. Sorry 5. 7 Years
CAN'T STOP THE FEELING! and maybe even Stressed Out or One Dance are also candidates to finish in the top 5 for digital. I'm not feeling too sure in my picks for 4 & 5, but that was my best guess.
Streaming: 1. Panda 2. Work 3. Sorry 4. One Dance 5. PILLOWTALK
I'm going out on a limb with CAN'T STOP THE FEELING!, but I feel it will continue to be huge throughout the summer so...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 5, 2016 22:31:28 GMT -5
^ IMO Lukas is practically guaranteed year-end top 5 on radio. Probably #3 even tbh (unless CSTF has great longevity) and I don't see Hello being digital #1 because 2015 ate away at most of its sales (if it had come out a couple weeks then it'd probably be #1)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2016 11:26:05 GMT -5
Based on unofficial estimates for this week, One Dance will make a big 8-spot jump into the current top 15.
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Mr. Thonk Eyes
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Post by Mr. Thonk Eyes on Jun 6, 2016 23:36:08 GMT -5
^ IMO Lukas is practically guaranteed year-end top 5 on radio. Probably #3 even tbh (unless CSTF has great longevity) and I don't see Hello being digital #1 because 2015 ate away at most of its sales (if it had come out a couple weeks then it'd probably be #1) 7 Years is a lock for Top 10 on Radio no question, but it couldn't even reach 180 million AI on Kworb/Mediabase and it hasn't exactly had the slowest fall down the overall AI chart, which is why I'm very skeptical of it finishing in the Top 5. I'd still say it has an outside shot at reaching Top 5 though if Timberlake's song doesn't quite play out like I think it will. As for digital, after doing calculations today, I have a new Top 5: 1. Love Yourself 2. My House 3. CAN'T STOP THE FEELING! 4. One Dance 5. Hello Reason I have JT and Drake so high in this one as well as Sorry and 7 Years out of the Top 5 in my new digital prediction is because of how much 'FEELING!' and 'Dance' have already sold so far, both are already close to 1 million in sales and the current top seller so far is only slightly over 2 million in sales.
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THINKIN BOUT YOU
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Post by THINKIN BOUT YOU on Jun 7, 2016 2:07:20 GMT -5
Why is My House so big on digital songs?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2016 3:53:55 GMT -5
Why is My House so big on digital songs? Probably due to its consistency over the last few months. It's fading away now, but not as fast as several other hits from around that time. It didn't even really leave Kworb's top 10 sales estimates until Prince and Beyonce reshuffled the chart.
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rimetm
2x Platinum Member
Just a Good Ol' Chart Shmuck
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Post by rimetm on Jun 7, 2016 6:14:51 GMT -5
Really Really has finally got a run on radio and has been gaining sales, and it re-enters the chart at a new peak of No. 52. Anyone else think it'll be a sleeper hit and eventually make the year-end?
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