Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2016 8:28:50 GMT -5
335 songs have charted on the Hot 100 so far during this chart year. 335 already? Damn! Didn't we have like 400 last year (in the full chart year)? If so, we will pass that at this rate. 459 last year. Lots of album tracks charting this year. Although we may not end up too far ahead of last year... at this point there can be about 5 new songs each week to equal 459.
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Mr. Thonk Eyes
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Post by Mr. Thonk Eyes on May 24, 2016 8:57:58 GMT -5
Point difference between Stressed Out and My House?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2016 9:03:33 GMT -5
Point difference between Stressed Out and My House? around 130k
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jtd Thee Stallion
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Post by jtd Thee Stallion on May 24, 2016 9:14:40 GMT -5
Point difference between MM&I and Hotline Bling & Stitches?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2016 9:18:19 GMT -5
SORRY crosses 900k for the chart year this week. LOVE YOURSELF is probably about 4 weeks away from taking over #1.
7 YEARS, MM&I and PILLOWTALK should all surpass STITCHES next week - although PILLOWTALK may fall a little short.
CAN'T STOP THE FEELING! will easily secure a spot in the YE Top 100 in its 3rd week.
There are a few more country songs that are probably going to continue this trend of falling just short of making it: SOMEWHERE ON A BEACH, HUMBLE AND KIND, MY CHURCH and SNAPBACK.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2016 9:20:43 GMT -5
Point difference between MM&I and Hotline Bling & Stitches? They're all within about 6k of each other. Hotline Bling is going to start moving downward more rapidly now with a new crop of heavy hitters moving upward. I think this is its final week in the top 10.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on May 24, 2016 11:15:43 GMT -5
If you look at the 2015 year end hot 100 predictions, at week 27 Night Changes (ended up at 98) was at 56 with 8 songs coming up fast below it in the top 70. Perfect is at 57 right now with the only song that looks like it will pass it soon is Can't Stop The Feeling so it might make it despite not having enough points for 2015. EDIT: Also, by week 31 Night Changes was down to 68. Definitely do not see Perfect falling that far between now and then, after Can't Stop The Feeling it might be passed by This Is What You Came For, Close, or Pop Style or maybe another big debut but definitely not down to 68.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2016 11:26:26 GMT -5
^ Entirely possible. I doubt using last year as a gauge will end up being accurate. In a few more months we'll have a much better idea of 2016's cut off.
And I also have a feeling my predictions are going to be less accurate than last year. But who knows. There's an element of luck when dealing with estimates, so it could go either way.
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musicfan134
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Post by musicfan134 on May 24, 2016 11:47:54 GMT -5
Is there any hope for Piece by Piece to make the year end Hot 100? How long would it have to stick around to have a shot?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2016 11:53:41 GMT -5
Is there any hope for Piece by Piece to make the year end Hot 100? How long would it have to stick around to have a shot? Unfortunately not much hope for it... unless it moved up significantly on the H100 for all of its 8 remaining weeks. With its current weekly chart points, 8 weeks isn't enough time. And it probably will fall off sooner than that anyway. Even so, I'm hugely impressed by its staying power for a song that failed to hit at pop radio. I initially thought it would be long gone after a few weeks.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2016 15:02:45 GMT -5
YAY WILD THINGS DEBUTED!!!
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Post by Mike is BAD on May 24, 2016 18:06:56 GMT -5
So LY passes Hello and books Top 5. So 99% chance that Bieber will have 2 Top 5 YE positions. Unless Sorry just collapses and doesn't make it to 35 weeks on The Hot 100 (but like that will happen).
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Post by galaxyguardians on May 24, 2016 23:04:51 GMT -5
Can you tell me the approximate point difference between Hello and Work as of now? Hello is nearly 200,000 points ahead of Work. Hello, When do you think "Work" will secure YE top 10 and top 5 status based on last year's point ranges? Do you see work achieving top 5 status? Thank you in advance for any input
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mamooshka
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Post by mamooshka on May 25, 2016 6:42:34 GMT -5
If UF hadn't been released, TOL would've taken top honors for 2015. It wouldn't have felt like a YE#1 because it was the third release from X. LY may be the first YE#1 that is not its parent album's first single since 2007. If so, this will be only the 4th time this has happened in the last 20 years. Gotye's first single was called Eyes Wide Open. Thrift Shop was the FOURTH single from The Heist. The first single was called Wings. It failed to chart. Can't Hold Us was the 2nd single, released in 2011. Then Same Love was released, then Thrift Shop. Thrift Shop was the first song to chart though. Pharrell's first single, Marilyn Monroe, did not chart either. Uptown Funk was the first year end number 1 to be the leadoff single since 2011 xD I stand corrected. LY may be the first YE1 that is its parent album's first charting single since 2012. On a separate note, I expected CSTF to have multiple weeks at the top. Wonder where it went wrong?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 25, 2016 9:09:33 GMT -5
Hello is nearly 200,000 points ahead of Work. Hello, When do you think "Work" will secure YE top 10 and top 5 status based on last year's point ranges? Do you see work achieving top 5 status? Thank you in advance for any input It'll probably take another 4-6 weeks to reach last year's top 10 threshold. As for top 5, that's hard to say right now because I don't know how well it's going to hold up on its way down the chart. I'd say at least 12 more weeks with a slow descent for top 5 status.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 25, 2016 9:15:13 GMT -5
I expected CSTF to have multiple weeks at the top. Wonder where it went wrong? This isn't abnormal for a song that starts out with big sales like this did, so I don't think there's anything wrong (Zayn's Pillowtalk is another example of this). CSTF has strong competition from Drake and Desiigner. Drake has huge streaming numbers that are only going to increase when he releases a video, so it may block Justin from returning for awhile (or at all). We'll see! It's fun when there's good competition fighting for the top! And either way, CSTF is already a #1 song and it has strong weekly point totals, so it's going to fair quite well on the YE chart.
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scrohr424
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Post by scrohr424 on May 27, 2016 14:50:57 GMT -5
Well it wouldn't surprise me at all if CSTF hits #1 again. Too early to say given how overpowered Panda and One Dance are, because even with how they made streaming less effective than sales because of the rise in prevalence of the former, it clearly hasn't stopped the domination of the latter two.
Also nice to see Wild Things "debut", but it isn't looking any more likely to make it in the end than, say, Summer Sixteen or Perfect. But we'll see. Cheap Thrills might have a chance, though.
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Post by 54generation on May 29, 2016 6:37:14 GMT -5
Hm, so I wonder if the presence of Drake's album affecting the charts will affect the year end chart. I mean where the songs have lower peaks in general when compared to the other year end charts. Boy I hope I don't see too many Drake songs in the year end chart.
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scrohr424
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Post by scrohr424 on May 29, 2016 8:16:16 GMT -5
If 2015 was the year that Drake's overexposure began, 2016 is the year where it explodes. Regarding some of the songs: - One Dance and Work are set and will be high.
- Pop Style will most likely make it at this rate.
- Summer Sixteen is teetering on the "has a chance but if it does will likely be super low" with Perfect and Confident.
- Controlla is gaining but I would rather not see it make it.
- Too Good has been gaining and I won't mind if it makes it.
He had six songs from 2015's Year-End Hot 100, only two of which he was the lead (and only) act in. This, though...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2016 9:18:23 GMT -5
Hm, so I wonder if the presence of Drake's album affecting the charts will affect the year end chart. I mean where the songs have lower peaks in general when compared to the other year end charts. Boy I hope I don't see too many Drake songs in the year end chart. I think the songs with lower peaks making the year end chart is just a reflection of the role longevity can play these days. Songs' chart runs seem to last longer on average (despite the 25/52 week rule) and a high peak isn't needed with this kind of longevity. Plus, peak is just a relative weekly position which doesn't signify a substantial hit all on its own. I say all of this in general terms, but it's an observation I've been making myself in these most recent 2 chart years. Drake's going to have a big year-end year, obviously. All 3 singles from the album so far will make it (Pop Style is the only one that hasn't made it yet but I think it will and Hotline Bling a holdover from last year) and with Controlla getting Urban spins it has a good shot. I reckon Too Good will be a single at some point too, maybe even this year given how well it's doing on its own. I think it sounds like a late summer and/or fall smash-in-the-making. Summer Sixteen is a wild card at this point. Not too shabby, Drake!
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Post by chicken077 on May 30, 2016 12:19:40 GMT -5
Hm, so I wonder if the presence of Drake's album affecting the charts will affect the year end chart. I mean where the songs have lower peaks in general when compared to the other year end charts. Boy I hope I don't see too many Drake songs in the year end chart. I think the songs with lower peaks making the year end chart is just a reflection of the role longevity can play these days. Songs' chart runs seem to last longer on average (despite the 25/52 week rule) and a high peak isn't needed with this kind of longevity. Plus, peak is just a relative weekly position which doesn't signify a substantial hit all on its own. I say all of this in general terms, but it's an observation I've been making myself in these most recent 2 chart years. Drake's going to have a big year-end year, obviously. All 3 singles from the album so far will make it (Pop Style is the only one that hasn't made it yet but I think it will and Hotline Bling a holdover from last year) and with Controlla getting Urban spins it has a good shot. I reckon Too Good will be a single at some point too, maybe even this year given how well it's doing on its own. I think it sounds like a late summer and/or fall smash-in-the-making. Summer Sixteen is a wild card at this point. Not too shabby, Drake! Totally agree that these few years have witnessed songs with longer longevity than past years. But this year seems like an exception. In 2014 and 2015, most songs that perform well on the chart seem to easily make 30 weeks on the chart, but this year, they seem to barely make it to 30 weeks, if at all. Like after Stitches falls of this week, the song that has lasted the longest on the chart is Stressed Out at 35 (or 36?) weeks, and most other songs are in the late 20s. I remember last year at this time, there were multiple songs in the 30s and 40s (I could be wrong). Could be because of the formula change at the end of last year or the barrage of Prince/Beyonce/Drake songs a few weeks ago. I wonder how this will effect the year end chart, if this isn't my illusion lol.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2016 12:43:09 GMT -5
^ Yeah, its definitely the formula change. Looking at a snapshot of the top 50 from this week and comparing it to 1 year ago and 2 years ago (2015 [8] and 2014 [12])... the number of songs with 25 or more weeks (= more than 6 months) is still pretty high [11], it's just many of them exceeded 30 and some 40 weeks. In many ways streaming can act like another radio metric, with all the passive playlist plays songs get after their initial 6 months of fairly heavy radio spins... so I think this is another reason why we get a lot of lingerers.
June 4 2016
27 Love Yourself 35 Stressed Out 28 My House 31 Cake By The Ocean 29 Me Myself & I 30 Sorry 30 Exchange 52 Stitches 25 One Call Away 48 Roses 34 Don’t
First weekend in June 2015
28 Shut Up And Dance 28 Uptown Funk 33 Thinking Out Loud 28 GDFR 30 Blank Space 40 Shake It Off 46 All About That Bass 41 Take Me To Church
First weekend in June 2014
33 All Of Me 36 Dark Horse 41 Pompeii 26 Let It Go 49 Counting Stars 35 Team 33 Timber 40 Wake Me Up 41 Show Me 42 Demons 30 Story Of My Life 43 Let Her Go
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inverse
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Post by inverse on May 30, 2016 13:04:45 GMT -5
^ Yeah, its definitely the formula change. Looking at a snapshot of the top 50 from this week and comparing it to 1 year ago and 2 years ago (2015 [8] and 2014 [12])... the number of songs with 25 or more weeks (= more than 6 months) is still pretty high [11], it's just many of them exceeded 30 and some 40 weeks. In many ways streaming can act like another radio metric, with all the passive playlist plays songs get after their initial 6 months of fairly heavy radio spins... so I think this is another reason why we get a lot of lingerers. June 4 2016 27 Love Yourself 35 Stressed Out 28 My House 31 Cake By The Ocean 29 Me Myself & I 30 Sorry 30 Exchange 52 Stitches 25 One Call Away 48 Roses 34 Don’t First weekend in June 2015 28 Shut Up And Dance 28 Uptown Funk 33 Thinking Out Loud 28 GDFR 30 Blank Space 40 Shake It Off 46 All About That Bass 41 Take Me To Church First weekend in June 2014 33 All Of Me 36 Dark Horse 41 Pompeii 26 Let It Go 49 Counting Stars 35 Team 33 Timber 40 Wake Me Up 41 Show Me 42 Demons 30 Story Of My Life 43 Let Her Go Roses has 31 lol. 48 is its chart position
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2016 13:08:22 GMT -5
yeah i did that in a hurry. i can always count on you to proofread and correct all my posts. no need to quote the whole thing, tho.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on May 30, 2016 13:17:56 GMT -5
I think the songs with lower peaks making the year end chart is just a reflection of the role longevity can play these days. Songs' chart runs seem to last longer on average (despite the 25/52 week rule) and a high peak isn't needed with this kind of longevity. Plus, peak is just a relative weekly position which doesn't signify a substantial hit all on its own. I say all of this in general terms, but it's an observation I've been making myself in these most recent 2 chart years. Drake's going to have a big year-end year, obviously. All 3 singles from the album so far will make it (Pop Style is the only one that hasn't made it yet but I think it will and Hotline Bling a holdover from last year) and with Controlla getting Urban spins it has a good shot. I reckon Too Good will be a single at some point too, maybe even this year given how well it's doing on its own. I think it sounds like a late summer and/or fall smash-in-the-making. Summer Sixteen is a wild card at this point. Not too shabby, Drake! Totally agree that these few years have witnessed songs with longer longevity than past years. But this year seems like an exception. In 2014 and 2015, most songs that perform well on the chart seem to easily make 30 weeks on the chart, but this year, they seem to barely make it to 30 weeks, if at all. Like after Stitches falls of this week, the song that has lasted the longest on the chart is Stressed Out at 35 (or 36?) weeks, and most other songs are in the late 20s. I remember last year at this time, there were multiple songs in the 30s and 40s (I could be wrong). Could be because of the formula change at the end of last year or the barrage of Prince/Beyonce/Drake songs a few weeks ago. I wonder how this will effect the year end chart, if this isn't my illusion lol. And again, it seems like something that is happening this year is that songs aren't really peaking very low. Like, if a song makes the top 35 it usually makes the top 20 as well. I guess there was Where Ya At and Break Up In A Small Town but they got caught between years so they don't count. If you compare the songs that made the 140000 point cutoff (the 100 spot on broccoli's video) the lowest ones in 2015 are lower than in 2016. 1: Night Changes (31) 2: Riptide (30) 3: Blessings (28) 4: Prayer In C (23) 5: Ghost (21) 6: Heartbeat Song (21) 7: Take Your Time (20) 8: Chandelier (20) 9: CoCo (20) 10: She Knows (19) 1: Let It Go (28) 2: Exchange (26) 3: Hide Away (23) 4: Say It (23) 5: Die A Happy Man (21) 6: Middle (20) 7: I Know What You Did Last Summer (20) 8: Back To Sleep (20) 9: Oui (19) 10: Low Life (18)
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85la
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Post by 85la on May 30, 2016 14:52:58 GMT -5
It would be nice to see a non-#1 song lead the year-end list, which hasn't happened in 15 years, and I believe only 3 times total in the history of the Hot 100. Broccoli, any chance that 7 Years or Stressed Out could make it, or another song?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2016 14:58:32 GMT -5
It would be nice to see a non-#1 song lead the year-end list, which hasn't happened in 15 years, and I believe only 3 times total in the history of the Hot 100. Broccoli, any chance that 7 Years or Stressed Out could make it, or another song? Doubt it. 7 Years would have to more than double its current points (which is unlikely since it has peaked)... and Stressed Out is too far behind to catch up, considering Sorry and Love Yourself are still charting too. Love Yourself with more weekly points than Stressed Out doesn't help things either. I can't imagine a #2 peaking song that hasn't peaked yet having enough points in 25 weeks to take over. #1 maybe somehow with insane weekly points for awhile - but not #2.
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yuh yuh
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Post by yuh yuh on May 30, 2016 15:21:10 GMT -5
Is there any chance for Sorry to block Love Yourself from going #1?
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Mr. Thonk Eyes
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Post by Mr. Thonk Eyes on May 30, 2016 15:51:12 GMT -5
Chances of Lukas Graham passing twenty one pilots?
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Post by Mike is BAD on May 30, 2016 17:14:50 GMT -5
Chances of Lukas Graham passing twenty one pilots? 50/50 Yeah, but in the end neither can be #1.
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