Marv
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Post by Marv on Jan 1, 2015 17:38:13 GMT -5
Tomorrow morning's chart will be a 'normal' one since the Christmas airplay will vanish.
Tim did get a few extra spins last weekend on those stations which played part II of Lon Helton's year-end countdown since he also sat in with Lon during the countdown of the top 10 although I doubt if that will prevent Brad from overtaking him;
Look for almost every song in the top 50 to get a bullet tomorrow morning as did almost EVERY recurrent on this morning's All Access chart except for those songs that are done for good, referring to Scotty McCreery, Maddie & Tae & Keith Urban.
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on Jan 1, 2015 21:47:20 GMT -5
Not if those 74 spins are weighted lower, thus given less points. I'm sure the points between the two songs are very close, it's just that for whatever reason, Eric is ahead while his "metrics" are still catching up. I agree with you when you say that the points between the two songs are very close. But I have this feeling that with an AI difference of .062 and 75 spin lead, Carrie is likely ahead of Eric. And while II would love to know 'the reason' that explains Carrie's / Eric's chart position I think it's something only country radio knows. I'm sure this will straighten itself out in the next few days. "Something in the Water" is not currently ahead of "Talladega" in Mediabase points, because if SITW were actually ahead in points, SITW would also be ahead in rankings. Weights are assigned to radio stations based on their ratings performances in their local markets, with heavier weights assigned to stations with higher ratings in their local markets. You can read an excellent explanation from CT40 about the formula for station weights here (AQH Persons stands for Average Quarterly Hour Persons, or as Arbitron defines it, the average number of people listening to a particular station for at least five minutes during a fifteen-minute period). As carriekins noted above, "Talladega" evidently accumulated a slight advantage at some more heavily weighted stations (or maybe just one) that has allowed it to move ahead in points. Considering that no one has really been around from the label or station side to make any moves during the holidays, it's highly unlikely that there is anything shady going on. It could be as simple as one or a few more of "Something in the Water"'s stronger supporters moving to extra holiday/recurrent programming to mark the end of the year, something that would shift back sometime next week. In any event, any notion you have of some kind of Mediabase shadiness should also be allayed by the fact that "Talladega" is actually ahead of "Something in the Water" in audience impressions (by a small margin) on this week's Billboard Country Airplay chart ( here). Slightly different panel than Mediabase, of course, and again, the difference maker here may be as simple as a few more of "Something in the Water"'s stronger supporters shifting their playlists for 2014's last two weeks to favor holiday/recurrent programming. But "Talladega" had been closing in on "Something in the Water" prior to the end of 2014, anyway. The Country Countdown USA schedule has Carrie co-hosting on 17-18 January, after Kenny Chesney. That suggests that Sony Nashville intends consecutive #1 pushes for Brad Paisley's "Perfect Storm" (this week, since he is co-hosting the countdown), Kenny Chesney's "'Til It's Gone" next week (when he co-hosts), and then Carrie. One caveat: the extra airplay that comes from the extra countdown spin impacts the Billboard Country Airplay chart the week of co-hosting, but the Mediabase chart the week after co-hosting (Billboard runs its airplay charts from Monday-Sunday, Mediabase from Sunday to Saturday). It's clear to me that "Something in the Water" is actually the most popular current song being promoted to country radio. I'll be annoyed if it does not hit #1 on both the Billboard Country Airplay charts and the Mediabase chart, especially because I suspect that @daydrinker is right and that Sony decided to let the singles from Brad & Kenny go up ahead. I'm also annoyed that messing with what should have a pretty smooth ride up to #1 is going to necessitate a final week push if "Something in the Water" is to hit #1 on either chart. That said, country radio has been only too happy to cooperate, and that is the function of the way it is handling singles from solo female artists. Although I generally think the Taste of Country site is useless, Billy Dukes made what I thought was an excellent point in this recent piece on the ongoing struggles of women at country radio:[ bolding mine] Country radio programming doesn't necessarily define the most popular song the same way that we might. In other words, we might look at sales and streams. But that just tells us about the songs that inspire the most active listening/engagement. Radio is a more passive medium, and seeks to maximize the number of people who tune in and minimize the number of people tuning out. Country callout surveys generally show that songs with female leads draw higher negatives than songs with male leads. That's in no small part because radio listeners are known to respond better to the familiar, and country radio listeners are at this point simply more used to hearing male voices. But the "right" solo female single can draw a higher passion score, that is, a higher percentage of people who love the song, and that was certainly the case with "Something in the Water" before it was pulled from the Callout America survey -- it was a favorite song for the highest percentage of respondents in that survey pretty much since its release. So, keeping in mind what Billy Dukes is saying, here's the potential balancing act at radio: you have a song in "Something in the Water" that is likely inspiring a fair amount of tune- in because sales, streams and callout suggest that it is a favorite song of a significant portion of listeners. On the other hand, between the raw and at times loud vocal, the fact that it comes from a female, the fact that SITW sounds like nothing else on country radio right now, and the fact that not everyone responds to overtly Christian lyrics, it wouldn't be surprising to find that songs like "Perfect Storm," "'Til It's Gone" and "Talladega" draw lower negatives in local and national callout, even if they aren't selling as well (or in the case of "'Til It's Gone," selling much at all) or inspiring as much tune-in. "Perfect Storm," "'Til It's Gone" and "Talladega" are, inherently, safer songs for radio, and in the risk-averse environment that Billy Dukes is describing, it's not surprising that they may have an easier time achieving those maximum levels of airplay that it takes to hit #1. On that note, let's also be clear that we're not talking about huge margins between a #1 and #2 song. What I'm describing above is a general point about what female-led singles are up against at country radio, but in this case, with "Something in the Water" already doing so well, it's also intended to depict a small difference-maker between the top songs as SITW tries to reach #1.
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spencer
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Post by spencer on Jan 2, 2015 9:38:10 GMT -5
43donkeyvillas, that was very informative. Thank you. Much appreciated.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Jan 2, 2015 10:39:52 GMT -5
Tomorrow morning's chart will be a 'normal' one since the Christmas airplay will vanish. Tim did get a few extra spins last weekend on those stations which played part II of Lon Helton's year-end countdown since he also sat in with Lon during the countdown of the top 10 although I doubt if that will prevent Brad from overtaking him; Look for almost every song in the top 50 to get a bullet tomorrow morning as did almost EVERY recurrent on this morning's All Access chart except for those songs that are done for good, referring to Scotty McCreery, Maddie & Tae & Keith Urban. Back to normal there. 48 out of 50 songs have bullets.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2015 0:59:29 GMT -5
Next week will give a clearer idea of how Carrie Underwood's current single is going to finish up its chart run once the charts are back to normal and every station updates its rotation, but I have a feeling we might see a situation similar to the way Big Machine screwed up "This Is How We Roll" and Sony screwed up "Who I Am with You" here. Of course there is no way for me to see just what is going on behind the scenes, but the way Carrie's song slowed down just outside the top 10 and picked up the pace as soon as Brad and Kenny's songs had re-passed it makes me suspect that Sony felt "Something in the Water" would have the least trouble getting to #1 and so they decided to push "Perfect Storm" and "Til It's Gone" ahead, but now Eric Church's "Talladega" has passed "Something in the Water" on both charts and EMI Nashville may not want to play nice enough to let Carrie get back ahead for a week at #1 on Billboard.
Arista seems to be doing a big (probably final) #1 push for Brad's song this week and it looks like they might barely manage to knock "Shotgun Rider" from #1, which will allow the promotion team to focus all their resources on Carrie's song next week. Next weekend's charts should both show Kenny Chesney at #1. The only question will be whether the following week will see Carrie Underwood manage to get back ahead of Eric Church on Billboard to claim the #1 spot, or if she'll get another Mediabase-only #1 and Eric Church will get two weeks at #1 on Billboard. Right now I'd give Carrie about a 50% chance of re-passing Eric on Billboard and I'm only that "optimistic" because Arista will be done with Brad's song after this week and then all they'll have to worry about is Carrie.
As others have noted, this blocking really doesn't have anything to do with the treatment of females at country radio as this has happened to many songs before, such as the Florida Georgia Line and Chris Young examples I provided above, but I was so sure that this would have been the song to end the drought of female #1 songs on the Billboard airplay chart and with Carrie Underwood not having a date set for a new album and Miranda Lambert releasing a bit of an unusual-sounding song as her next radio single, I don't know when there will be another chance for a female to top the Billboard chart if this doesn't do it.
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Markus Meyer
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Post by Markus Meyer on Jan 3, 2015 2:53:36 GMT -5
I'll pretty upset if this doesn't get to #1. It's definitely one of my favorite Carrie songs ever. Now, I haven't like very much of her stuff pre-Blown Away era, but this is still excellent. I agree with daydrinker that if this doesn't hit #1, I'm not sure when the next solo female #1 will be.
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sbp17
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Post by sbp17 on Jan 3, 2015 2:54:28 GMT -5
I agree with daydrinker that if this doesn't hit #1, I'm not sure when the next solo female #1 will be. Little Toy Guns
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jan 3, 2015 3:32:46 GMT -5
"Little Toy Guns" should get the job done if this doesn't, but really they should both get there. It's ridiculous that "Blown Away" from over two years ago now is still the last solo female #1 on BB. And every time something has come close since from Carrie or Miranda, it's come up short, oftentimes when it really shouldn't have, especially considering the lack of females getting to #1. Really there's no excuse why they keep missing out when so many weaker male songs keep hitting #1 by artists w/ significantly lower star-power. *fingers crossed* though that this can still get to #1 because it deserves it by being without a doubt one of the biggest hits of the fall. Plus, I like this one more than LTG.
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Jan 3, 2015 10:29:45 GMT -5
"Little Toy Guns" should get the job done if this doesn't, but really they should both get there. It's ridiculous that "Blown Away" from over two years ago now is still the last solo female #1 on BB. And every time something has come close since from Carrie or Miranda, it's come up short, oftentimes when it really shouldn't have, especially considering the lack of females getting to #1. Really there's no excuse why they keep missing out when so many weaker male songs keep hitting #1 by artists w/ significantly lower star-power. *fingers crossed* though that this can still get to #1 because it deserves it by being without a doubt one of the biggest hits of the fall. Plus, I like this one more than LTG. That's what is flabbergasting to me! Despite less airplay, SITW is clearly the most well-liked song right now on country radio considering its sales; which have kept this song at #1 on the hybrid chart for a total of four weeks now! The fact that this song is struggling in airplay is mind boggling. Chart manipulation is ridiculous, this song should've had a smooth sail to the top with a multi-week stay. Now, it's in question whether this song will get to #1 at all... so sad.
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Marv
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Post by Marv on Jan 3, 2015 11:22:11 GMT -5
Yesterday's chart told most of us all we need to know; at least three songs are on their way to recurrentville (Maddie & Tae, Scotty McCreery & Keith Urban), and Parmalee will very likely have to be content with that #3 peak.
Unless Brad's label emulates Scott Borchetta's playbook, Tim will get a month at #1.
Furthermore, 74 spins represents less than 1% of what a #1 tune typically needs to top the chart, so that's not worth gnashing your teeth over, since the format has essentially been on autopilot for the past 3 weeks since Tim hit #1, with three new tune by format megastars (Luke/Blake/Jason) screaming up the charts for better or for worse, while only two format superstars (Miranda & the ZBB) are not in the top 40.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Jan 3, 2015 11:37:13 GMT -5
I don't think Carrie's chances are so bad. At least the label didn't go overboard promoting her too early -- if they'd done that, she might be out of steam by now. But as long as they push strongly beginning next week, I don't see why she can't get a week at #1. Especially if Paisley's song starts falling and he misses out on his turn at #1.
It's not as if radio doesn't like Carrie. They eat up her songs, whether or not they're her best work (in my opinion, of course). Leaving out duets, she always gets to #3 or better. Why should this one receive different treatment? As long as she doesn't get passed by Flaga, and she's way ahead -- I think she should get to the top.
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matty005
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Post by matty005 on Jan 3, 2015 11:53:28 GMT -5
I don't think Carrie's chances are so bad. At least the label didn't go overboard promoting her too early -- if they'd done that, she might be out of steam by now. But as long as they push strongly beginning next week, I don't see why she can't get a week at #1. Especially if Paisley's song starts falling and he misses out on his turn at #1. It's not as if radio doesn't like Carrie. They eat up her songs, whether or not they're her best work (in my opinion, of course). Leaving out duets, she always gets to #3 or better. Why should this one receive different treatment? As long as she doesn't get passed by Flaga, and she's way ahead -- I think she should get to the top. If Flaga passes Carrie and Carrie misses out on #1 because of it, heaven help us all at Pulse.
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Jan 5, 2015 23:23:07 GMT -5
Here's hoping that Arista can shift their full focus over to getting this to #1 before Eric Church, now that Brad's got his week at #1 on Billboard.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2015 23:36:45 GMT -5
The fact that this song is struggling in airplay is mind boggling. This song is NOT struggling in airplay at all. All songs slow down from Christmas thru New Year's. But if you throw out that 7-10(ish) day period, SITW's airplay gains have been as strong as anybody else's in the top 10. I swear this comes up every time with a Carrie single, but it's not logical to expect her songs to out-gain all others by a 2 to 1 ratio or w/e, simply because Carrie's songs sell more. That's not how radio works, and that's never how radio has worked. That's why we have sales charts in addition to airplay charts. This is simply a case (and we see these cases every week) of one superstar (Carrie) jostling with several other superstars (Kenny, Brad, Eric, FGL) for chart position. Sure, it might be true that Sony eased off promotion on this one a bit to let Brad and Kenny go up ahead (back when they were all just outside the top 10), but Sony is a business, and sometimes businesses do these things. They want all their artists to do well. And so far they haven't really failed with Carrie...her top 2 streak is unmatched, but you wouldn't know it by reading through many Underwood threads here on Pulse. Miranda, Brad, Kenny, Lady A, King George...none of them have the top 2 streak that Carrie has.
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bornfearless2000
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Post by bornfearless2000 on Jan 8, 2015 10:33:58 GMT -5
SITW remains at #1 Billboard Hot Country Songs. The song has topped this chart for 5 inconsecutive weeks.
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Marv
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Post by Marv on Jan 9, 2015 7:07:14 GMT -5
Carrie has now risen to #3 with Tim & Parmalee now in free fall mode having lost their bullets this morning as I wrote a few days ago.
The back & forth race between Carrie & Eric is far from over, so stay tuned.
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rbundy1987
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Post by rbundy1987 on Jan 10, 2015 22:08:31 GMT -5
Okay, this song took a hit today (down 91 spins), audience loss not too bad but spins took a hit. We know that "Perfect Storm" will be #1 again this week for Billboard Country Airplay for a second week and spend it's week finally for Mediabase, but what will conspire for next weekend's charts?? Do you expect Sony to push Kenny for next week since he is co-hosting with Lon Helton this weeekend for one final push next week for "Til It's Gone" or do you think Sony might try to go for #1 with Carrie since she is co-hosting for next weekend with Lon? I am starting to get real nervous and think they will go for the Mediabase #1 for airplay and aim for #2 for Billboard. Question is who will have #1 next Sunday for Mediabase and Monday for Billboard?? Good questions that are going to be answered here pretty soon.
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Jan 10, 2015 23:34:58 GMT -5
I'm well aware that Carrie's Top 2 streak at radio will continue with this, as it's already nearing Top 2 territory, but Sony would be absolute fools to pass up the opportunity of getting this to #1 on Billboard Country Airplay after there not being another solo female #1 there since "Blown Away" from over two years ago.
I'll be livid if they send Kenny to #1 on Billboard and settle for yet another #2 peak.
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Jan 10, 2015 23:40:48 GMT -5
They should settle for no less than #1 with this. After so much success and acclaim with this single, a #2 peak just seems so unjust! Also, the fact that a solo female hasn't reached #1 since "Blown Away" is appalling. If there's a song worthy of changing that, it's this one!
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sbp17
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Post by sbp17 on Jan 10, 2015 23:44:52 GMT -5
I'll be livid if they send Kenny to #1 on Billboard and settle for yet another #2 peak. I agree. This song has all the makings of a multi-week number one hit so I already feel like we'd be settling if she got a week at number one. Anything less than that would only further strengthen my disappointment in the current state of country radio.
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Jan 11, 2015 1:21:07 GMT -5
Okay, this song took a hit today (down 91 spins), audience loss not too bad but spins took a hit. We know that "Perfect Storm" will be #1 again this week for Billboard Country Airplay for a second week and spend it's week finally for Mediabase, but what will conspire for next weekend's charts?? Do you expect Sony to push Kenny for next week since he is co-hosting with Lon Helton this weeekend for one final push next week for "Til It's Gone" or do you think Sony might try to go for #1 with Carrie since she is co-hosting for next weekend with Lon? I am starting to get real nervous and think they will go for the Mediabase #1 for airplay and aim for #2 for Billboard. Question is who will have #1 next Sunday for Mediabase and Monday for Billboard?? Good questions that are going to be answered here pretty soon. Also, don't forget about Eric with Talladega, which is currently ahead of SITW in audience and spins, and has been a big grower the last few weeks. Eric could end up being the one preventing Carrie from a #1 peak, not Kenny.
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rbundy1987
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Post by rbundy1987 on Jan 11, 2015 1:28:52 GMT -5
Okay, this song took a hit today (down 91 spins), audience loss not too bad but spins took a hit. We know that "Perfect Storm" will be #1 again this week for Billboard Country Airplay for a second week and spend it's week finally for Mediabase, but what will conspire for next weekend's charts?? Do you expect Sony to push Kenny for next week since he is co-hosting with Lon Helton this weeekend for one final push next week for "Til It's Gone" or do you think Sony might try to go for #1 with Carrie since she is co-hosting for next weekend with Lon? I am starting to get real nervous and think they will go for the Mediabase #1 for airplay and aim for #2 for Billboard. Question is who will have #1 next Sunday for Mediabase and Monday for Billboard?? Good questions that are going to be answered here pretty soon. Also, don't forget about Eric with Talladega, which is currently ahead of SITW in audience and spins, and has been a big grower the last few weeks. Eric could end up being the one preventing Carrie from a #1 peak, not Kenny. I realize that but Kenny would have to go first at #1 since he is closer then Eric who is not too far off either now and getting closer each day. I am seeing that Luke is starting to gain up on Carrie as well as he is only 5 mil away from catching her in audience but still at least 1,000 spins from catching her so ya I agree Eric is the bigger threat but I still think Kenny could be a threat as well. Something to watch!!!
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Jan 11, 2015 23:06:52 GMT -5
I'm not at all sure Brad will get a second week on top at Billboard. I fully expect to see Kenny there tomorrow, which will speed things up a week in your projections. The fewer weeks Luke Bryan and Florida Georgia Line have to catch up to SITW, the better her chances for #1.
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kml567
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Post by kml567 on Jan 12, 2015 8:47:34 GMT -5
It looks like Billboard #1 will be Kenny, Eric, Luke and then FGL in that order.
Sony is to blame if Carrie does not get #1. Fans have raised their eyebrows 2 months ago when it appears Sony was intentionally slowing down SITW in favor of Brad/Kenny to stay ahead of Carrie so that the 2 men will have an easier path to #1.
Carrie is co-hosting CC-USA next week, which is way too early! The timing of the "extra spin" effect is poorly planned by Sony.
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Jan 12, 2015 10:05:27 GMT -5
What bothers me is the two songs that may be responsible for blocking Carrie from #1, Luke and FGL... it's cringeworthy. I know a top 2 streak like Carrie's (assuming this makes it) is nothing to shrug at, but for so many reasons this song deserves #1; above pretty much all of the songs that surround it, imo... The thought that this song could be blocked from #1 by the likes of Luke and FGL is just an awful thought...
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Jan 12, 2015 10:10:47 GMT -5
What bothers me is the two songs that may be responsible for blocking Carrie from #1, Luke and FGL... it's cringeworthy. I know a top 2 streak like Carrie's (assuming this makes it) is nothing to shrug at, but for so many reasons this song deserves #1; above pretty much all of the songs that surround it, imo... The thought that this song could be blocked from #1 by the likes of Luke and FGL is just an awful thought... I agree. This would be Carrie Underwood's third consecutive #2 hit following Two Black Cadillacs and See You Again. Now those two deserved #1 peaks.
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Jan 12, 2015 10:40:37 GMT -5
Embarrassing in every aspect of the word. I have nothing else to say without unleashing a huge amount of expletives in the name of Sony and Gary Overton.
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surfy
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Post by surfy on Jan 12, 2015 14:00:09 GMT -5
Even though this song didnt have a lot of longevity with me, I still enjoy it, and it better go #1 on country radio!
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Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2015 14:22:44 GMT -5
Personally speaking, I prefer some of her other songs to this one. I enjoy it, but something about it doesn't jive for me. The styles don't match up. Good song, but I'm not sure I ever saw it as "OMG hands-down number 1!!!!!"
Regardless, I do think it will get a #1 after Eric. After FGL (who I'm debating whether they may not even get #1 themselves because I think Luke climbed fast enough to claim more than one week atop), nobody is really coming up too quickly. I'm surprised at how slow Blake is climbing and now Darius has seen similar daily updates to Jason, which may be even more surprising.
That being said, Carrie has had a grand total of ZERO country releases miss the top 2 on Billboard, so I think Sony may have had to cut their losses in terms of Brad/Kenny/Carrie on this one.
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Jan 12, 2015 17:44:04 GMT -5
That being said, Carrie has had a grand total of ZERO country releases miss the top 2 on Billboard, so I think Sony may have had to cut their losses in terms of Brad/Kenny/Carrie on this one. I understand that, but when it comes down to it, they've had to cut their losses with scenarios involving Carrie for her past two singles, TBC and SYA, as well. If it happens with this one, too, then it'll come to an even more confusing and unfair result. It truly doesn't make sense to me that Sony wouldn't want to achieve the bragging rights of having the first solo female #1 single since their very own did it last in October of 2012. In a time like today where the feminist movement is more prevalent than it was just a couple of years ago, when Country radio is still as male-dominant as it has been (and swamped by, in the vast majority, utter trash), and with a song that's as big of a statement as Carrie's debut was ten years ago, it would seem like a no-brainer to me to prioritize this over worrying about anything else. But, I'm just an average joe with a passion for music, posting on a music forum, so I guess my word only means so much. I'm not discrediting her Top 2 streak at all (literally nobody could ever do that without sounding stupid), nor am I complaining about it when I say that, if this doesn't go #1, it'll be a damn shame.
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