14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Jan 23, 2015 18:18:16 GMT -5
This article is a great read. It was done by Windmills Country, who is a very-well educated social media commentator and journalist in the music industry world, specifically Country music. This article discusses the male-to-female sales ratio that the current climate of Country radio is experiencing, and it also includes a chart that summarizes some strong statements involving the current songs that have/are occupying the top tier of the Country Airplay chart -- this song, "Shotgun Rider", "Perfect Storm", "I See You", "'Til It's Gone", and "Talladega". Definitely give it a read. It'll be worth your while.
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rbundy1987
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Post by rbundy1987 on Jan 23, 2015 21:15:18 GMT -5
jhomes87, what's going on? Is 19/Arista still pushing this for this week, or are they backing out for another week and hoping to go for it for next week? I don't see how they can pass Luke next week, with how he is gaining in spins and at times audience even though that has slowed down here the past few days. If only I worked for Arista... :) My first thought after seeing today's update was that perhaps the label realized they weren't going to be able to "make it happen" this week and might instead go for #1 next week. I though there was a pretty good chance for Carrie to get to #1 on Mediabase by Sunday--and that chance is still there--but today she lost ground to both Eric and Luke in the all-important spins race. Luke does appear to be slowing down a bit (in terms of audience gains), so I think the thought here may be to leave Eric Church uncontested; he'd take the #1 spot on both charts and then move out of the way next week, leaving only Carrie and Luke to battle it out. Today's gains: Eric: +59 spins, +334k audience Carrie: +22 spins, +354k audience Luke: +121 spins, +152k audience Carrie clearly won't make it to the top on Billboard this week. Meanwhile, it seems that Luke is trying to make up a bit of the gap on Mediabase (given his huge spins gain but small AI gain). Carrie's update wasn't bad today but it also wasn't indicative of a song that's on its way to #1. So to me it appears that either a) Arista has decided to ease off on the gas pedal, possibly realizing that they aren't going to get to #1 on either chart this week and will therefore have to save the "push" for next week or b) Arista IS in fact trying to really boost SITW but they're not getting the results they want from the folks at radio (for the record, I think "a" is more likely, but it's impossible to be sure). In any case, it's still hard to say...I'm not really sure what to make of today's update, but what I do know is that if it were me calling the shots, I wouldn't have even thought about pushing SITW this week since she started the week so far behind both Eric and Luke in audience. There's no guarantee that Arista can get this song to #1 next week (after Eric likely moves out of the way), but I like their chances better next week than I do for this week. The real question is: can they keep SITW alive for another 7-10 days? Does the song have that much gas left in the tank? We'll have to wait and see. I so agree with you jhomes87. I think next week could be risky too because Capitol could really go for the top and Carrie's label may not be able to stop Luke from topping the charts for next weekend. I think it's best if 19/Arista tries to wait things out this weekend and GO FOR IT for next weekend and give it all their might and hope the Luke/Carrie battle results in Carrie taking #1. Let Eric take both Billboard and Mediabase this weekend and then try to go for #1 next weekend and I know once it goes or not goes, then Carrie is going to drop like a bomb down as radio will drop her down in airplay like a hot potato as then focus will turn to Luke/FGL.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Jan 24, 2015 8:58:39 GMT -5
^I don't know about that. Luke Bryan's I See You is really hot right now. If he reaches the top before Carrie Underwood, she will lose for sure.
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Jan 24, 2015 9:04:16 GMT -5
^I don't know about that. Luke Bryan's I See You is really hot right now. If he reaches the top before Carrie Underwood, she will lose for sure. For what it's worth, he had a spin loss today, and his AI gain was a third of Carrie's... Definitely hot right now, but seems to be slowing down a little bit.
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rbundy1987
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Post by rbundy1987 on Jan 24, 2015 9:28:46 GMT -5
The reason why Luke has slowed down is because EMI is got all their attention on Eric for this week and to push him to the top and to block Carrie this weekend. I expect Capitol to shift their attention back to Luke Monday/Tuesday and to go for #1 for next weekend and could be an easy #1 if Carrie's label ends the push after this weekend.
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Jan 24, 2015 15:18:22 GMT -5
The reason why Luke has slowed down is because EMI is got all their attention on Eric for this week and to push him to the top and to block Carrie this weekend. I expect Capitol to shift their attention back to Luke Monday/Tuesday and to go for #1 for next weekend and could be an easy #1 if Carrie's label ends the push after this weekend. Further proof of how laughable this all really is. These pushes can even affect things on a daily basis?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2015 16:32:52 GMT -5
The reason why Luke has slowed down is because EMI is got all their attention on Eric for this week and to push him to the top and to block Carrie this weekend. I expect Capitol to shift their attention back to Luke Monday/Tuesday and to go for #1 for next weekend and could be an easy #1 if Carrie's label ends the push after this weekend. Further proof of how laughable this all really is. These pushes can even affect things on a daily basis? Sure. There are lots of syndicated shows and lots of radio stations, and if the radio promotion people from a given label are working the phones, it's not too hard for them to significantly alter a daily update. In the end radio is gonna do what they wanna do (to a certain extent), but they've also proven more than willing to "give in" to the "demands" or record labels over the years. And for what it's worth, there are 2 songs getting 'pushed' right now - "Talladega" and "Something In The Water" - while a 3rd song, Luke Bryan's "I See You", is getting held back a bit. SITW had its biggest update of the week today, but I also think it was Carrie's worst, in a sense. The big update (+80 spins, +618k audience) seems to confirm that Arista is indeed going for the Mediabase #1 tomorrow, and nothing else (because they're way too far behind on Billboard to even contend for #1 on Monday). The problem is that Eric had a bigger spins update (+109) today than Carrie did, and so Carrie is going to need a huge, huge update tomorrow morning in order to overtake Eric and get to #1 on Mediabase. Eric's only ahead by 32 spins, but I'm not sure how close Carrie is in terms of points (which is what will matter in the end).
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SoMuchToSay
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Post by SoMuchToSay on Jan 24, 2015 22:25:23 GMT -5
The reason why Luke has slowed down is because EMI is got all their attention on Eric for this week and to push him to the top and to block Carrie this weekend. I expect Capitol to shift their attention back to Luke Monday/Tuesday and to go for #1 for next weekend and could be an easy #1 if Carrie's label ends the push after this weekend. The fact that the labels are the ones picking what is #1 really makes me despise country radio. It's all about $ and perks and NOT what is the best quality song that listeners what to hear. The fact that this song (and even Luke's 6th single for that matter) will hit #1 is just crazy. Bring on Little Toy Guns!!
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Jan 24, 2015 23:01:22 GMT -5
The reason why Luke has slowed down is because EMI is got all their attention on Eric for this week and to push him to the top and to block Carrie this weekend. I expect Capitol to shift their attention back to Luke Monday/Tuesday and to go for #1 for next weekend and could be an easy #1 if Carrie's label ends the push after this weekend. The fact that the labels are the ones picking what is #1 really makes me despise country radio. It's all about $ and perks and NOT what is the best quality song that listeners what to hear. The fact that this song (and even Luke's 6th single for that matter) will hit #1 is just crazy. Bring on Little Toy Guns!! It's to the point though where it's not worth getting worked up over. Labels have been doing this for years and it's unfortunately not going to change, and will unfortunately never change. Just like jhomes87 said, this is common practice and radio usually gives in to labels demand of what songs get a significant increase in spins. Country radio is about $$ in the end just like any other business (which radio is , in any genre or talk radio). I have my qualms about this industry too and sometimes I feel like pulling my hair out at the unfairness with country radio and they're cooperation with Nashville based record labels, but I still accept it and know that there is still plenty of quality music being made - which luckily I'm knowledgeable enough to know who and when it is being released, and perhaps that part is what can be the most frustrating - that many casual fans don't get a fair chance to hear some great music being made. The fact that most songs that enter the top 5 find a way to #1 on one of if not both charts is far from crazy, just disappointing. I do completely agree on "Little Toy Guns" though, as I find myself hitting repeat often with that song.
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rbundy1987
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Post by rbundy1987 on Jan 25, 2015 7:01:39 GMT -5
This morning's Mediabase update keeps Carrie at #2. So she is up from #4 to #2 this weekend's chart. I doubt the afternoon update would have her at #1.
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desertfloods
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Post by desertfloods on Jan 25, 2015 7:10:45 GMT -5
Lol, reading the past few pages of posts, I am reminded of why I stopped following chart updates long ago. Country radio is a complete joke!
Bless your hearts, loyal chart watchers!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 25, 2015 9:40:41 GMT -5
The way I see this is that Carrie would have been blocked from #1 this week regardless of whether Eric Church or Luke Bryan was the one doing the blocking. If Eric weren't on Universal or another artist were in his place right now, Capitol would have let "I See You" go up a bit faster and Luke would have the Billboard #1 this week. Could Carrie's push for Mediabase #1 have been successful if Universal didn't have two songs in the top 5 right now (and consequently a bit more flexibility with choosing how to divide up the heavy rotation spins among their songs)? Possibly, but the Mediabase chart is really pretty meaningless since it's been prone to scandalous chart manipulation in the past, so to me a Mediabase-only #1 isn't much more rewarding or meaningful than no #1 at all.
It may seem the "natural" order of things would have been for Carrie to go up ahead of Eric and have a final push for "Water" this week" and "Talladega" next week, but then again if we're talking about a totally natural chart, Carrie may have gone up a month earlier. Basically, radio treated this song finely, as it's had no trouble putting up the same high airplay numbers as other #1 hits in the past few weeks, but the timing caused this to get a frustrating peak position-wise. If anyone is to blame, I'd say it's Sony, since from the looks of things they've allowed Kenny and Brad to go up ahead of Carrie against the natural order of things, but even this is something labels do all the time, and odds are that when this is a common practice there will be some situations in which this doesn't yield entirely fair results.
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rbundy1987
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Post by rbundy1987 on Jan 25, 2015 10:33:42 GMT -5
Yep, this was the final straw in "SITW as Carrie has REPLIED her response to all the love through the forum on Carrie Underwood Fan Club page. Here is her response and my response back, YES it's her because I checked her info and yes it's her. CarrieUnderwood Posted Today, 07:11 AM We didn't get the #1 this time, but I just want to thank you all SOOOOO much for all the requesting! It really means a lot to me, especially with a song like this. You guys are awesome...and to see how much you all care means more to me than any #1 position ever could! THANK YOU! My response rcarrie83 We love you Carrie and are proud of you. You are the best. Glad I got to meet you back in Dec 2010 in Evansville. I hope you come back on your next tour. We are Carriebears for life. Roger forums.carrieunderwood.fm/topic/43275-something-in-the-water-billboard-mediabase-country-christian-ac-chart-updates/page-39
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Jan 25, 2015 10:37:06 GMT -5
I'm sure there's plenty of blame to distribute, but don't forget one additional factor: even the professionals might not have been able to forecast that Luke's song, a 6th single, would go up as fast as it did. Without that song's meteoric rise, there would have been time for this collection of stars and superstars to do it the way they prefer, 2014 style, by giving everybody a shot at #1 in turn. In that world, whether SITW went up ahead of Church's song or not, it would have had time for a week at #1 -- and that would have worked out splendidly for SITW irrespective of sexism, sales numbers, and any other factor that might be discussed.
There aren't many albums that spawn 6 singles in the first place. But the idea that a 6th single would race up the chart the way this one has -- up to 46.5 million BB impressions in 11 chart weeks -- is not at all obvious except in retrospect. I don't think there are very many artists for whom we could forecast this kind of chart climb for a 5th single -- or a 4th single -- let alone a 6th. In fact Carrie, as "last in line" if we imagine Church going up ahead and Bryan having 10 million fewer impressions, would have had a shot at 2 weeks at the top if Florida Georgia Line co-operated.
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rsmatto
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Post by rsmatto on Jan 25, 2015 10:37:48 GMT -5
The reason why Luke has slowed down is because EMI is got all their attention on Eric for this week and to push him to the top and to block Carrie this weekend. I expect Capitol to shift their attention back to Luke Monday/Tuesday and to go for #1 for next weekend and could be an easy #1 if Carrie's label ends the push after this weekend. Further proof of how laughable this all really is. These pushes can even affect things on a daily basis? This is why radio promotion is expensive. It costs 'billable hours' for indie acts to pay someone to 'remind radio' of them. Wish it was more democratic than that but it isn't!.
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Post by drummerman2009 on Jan 25, 2015 10:42:38 GMT -5
Would any nominations for Something In The Water at the ACM's that will be announced on Tuesday help the song get to #1? Usually anyone who get nominations gets a sales boost with their singles and albums.
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stuffy
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Post by stuffy on Jan 25, 2015 11:52:25 GMT -5
Would any nominations for Something In The Water at the ACM's that will be announced on Tuesday help the song get to #1? Usually anyone who get nominations gets a sales boost with their singles and albums. I'd be really surprised if a Carrie Underwood song received any nominations. Blown Away won the Grammy but couldn't get a nomination at either the ACMs or CMAs.
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Jan 25, 2015 12:45:29 GMT -5
The fact that Carrie herself just posted in a thread on her FC's forum probably means it's done. To sum this all up, it's a damn shame.
I'm over it. "Little Toy Guns", come slay your chart run until you hit the top 10 and get chokeheld by your label in exchange for those surrounding male counterparts to keep you from reaching your fullest potential! <3
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neally
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Post by neally on Jan 25, 2015 13:05:10 GMT -5
Lol, reading the past few pages of posts, I am reminded of why I stopped following chart updates long ago. Country radio is a complete joke! Bless your hearts, loyal chart watchers! Is Country radio the most rigged of all formats ? In watching the Country radio charts over the years, it certainly seems likely as songs "wait their turn" and get that final push at the 11th hour by their labels. IMO, this corruptness takes away from the honour of having achieved so many radio #1s, especially for artists who struggle with their single sales to consumers. However rigged Mainstream Pop radio is, if it were as much of a joke as Country radio was, then artists like Katy Perry, Rihanna, and Beyonce would be nearly guaranteed #1s with all of their singles, when clearly they are not...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 25, 2015 13:23:06 GMT -5
^Country radio charts are so rigged that country is the only format whose Medibase chart ranks songs by points instead of simply spins, which is in my view a way to prevent labels from racking up on spins on the smaller market stations (which probably cost less money) to inflate chart positions. This way, even if labels can still cheat the system with overnight spins, it's more costly as they have to take the weight of the station into account and spend more money on the "heavier" stations.
I also believe country has the only Billboard airplay chart which ranks songs by audience impressions instead of spins, again a way to make the system less vulnerable to manipulation and spins of songs on smaller stations at odd times (overnight). I believe this was started after the scandalous #1 push for Reba's "Somebody." Someone please correct me if I'm getting my facts wrong.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 25, 2015 15:26:24 GMT -5
Lol, reading the past few pages of posts, I am reminded of why I stopped following chart updates long ago. Country radio is a complete joke! Bless your hearts, loyal chart watchers! Is Country radio the most rigged of all formats ? In watching the Country radio charts over the years, it certainly seems likely as songs "wait their turn" and get that final push at the 11th hour by their labels. IMO, this corruptness takes away from the honour of having achieved so many radio #1s, especially for artists who struggle with their single sales to consumers. However rigged Mainstream Pop radio is, if it were as much of a joke as Country radio was, then artists like Katy Perry, Rihanna, and Beyonce would be nearly guaranteed #1s with all of their singles, when clearly they are not... I'm no expert on the Pop charts, but I do check in from time to time. I think there's probably a certain degree of manipulation on all radio formats, but it's certainly not as blatant at CHR, and I think the main reason is because of the massive amount of airplay that Pop radio gives to its "powers". I mean, there's currently a gap of nearly 2000 spins between #6 Ariana Grande (decreasing) and #7 Meghan Trainor (still on her way up). And then you look at the huge lead that "Uptown Funk" has...it's more than 2500 spins ahead of the next bulleted song (#5, Hozier's "Take Me To Church"). Sam Smith (#4) is still putting up small gains but I don't see any way that that one will be able to hit the top. Hozier probably won't get there either. It looks like the Ronson/Bruno Mars song will spend many weeks at #1 before it's dethroned, with either Trainor or Ed Sheeran seeming the most likely to take over. Pop radio plays its tops songs more, and that results in some big spin gaps between different "tiers" in the rotations. And it seems to me that, even with labels pushing, it's pretty hard to close those gaps. I certainly think that Pop radio's charts do a better job at giving a truer representation of which hits were the absolute biggest, and it seems that a lot more songs peak 'naturally' in the 3-10 positions. But with country radio, there are so few spins (compared to pop) that separate the songs in the top 5 or even top 10, and so it's easy for them to just kind of march up the chart one after the other. SITW is going to peak at #2 Mediabase and #3 Billboard. The label and fans can still call it a #1 though, since it's spent 7 weeks at #1 on Billboard's Hot Country Songs chart. Like others have said, this was just rotten timing. This song has the numbers of a typical #1 hit, but it just so happens that there's one song with even higher numbers (Talladega), and on Billboard there are 2 songs with higher numbers (Talladega and I See You). And I typically don't like to play the "blame the label" game, but in this case it seems quite apparent that Sony stalled SITW's momentum last fall in favor of the singles from Brad and Kenny. They had no way of knowing that it would backfire like this (or, like Zazie said, that Luke Bryan's 6th single would go up so fast), but I think it's always dangerous to deliberately stall a song (SITW) that had been climbing so strongly. Anyway, no ACM nominations will save this song. It's done. As soon as the label found out that this song wasn't gonna be #1 on today's Mediabase chart, that marked the end of the push. That's how these situations always work. And thus I expect we'll see a negative update for SITW tomorrow morning. I'm really disappointed and frustrated that this song didn't get to #1 (I would've preferred the #1 on both BB and MB), but in the grand scheme of things, I think its missing the top spot had more to do with label shenanigans, rival labels battling one another, and just poor timing on the peak week than anything else. There's no denying that country radio doesn't play the ladies' songs as much as they should, but I think it's hard to measure if that had any effect here, and I believe that SITW would have made it to #1 48 weeks out of the year...it just wound up peaking in a really tough week.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Jan 25, 2015 15:35:58 GMT -5
Top two at MediaBase:
2 1 ERIC CHURCH Talladega 7929 7672 257 57.149 4 2 CARRIE UNDERWOOD Something In The Water 7935 7432 503 55.785
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Jan 25, 2015 15:52:43 GMT -5
Top two at MediaBase: 2 1 ERIC CHURCH Talladega 7929 7672 257 57.149 4 2 CARRIE UNDERWOOD Something In The Water 7935 7432 503 55.785 Little late to the discussion I see. ;)
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zaclord 🌈
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Post by zaclord 🌈 on Jan 25, 2015 16:19:57 GMT -5
Hey, the top 2 streak is still a thing on Mediabase, and worse case, she'll have a top 3 streak on Billboard. No other artist has that kind of track record and we Carrie fans need to continue to be proud of that. It's a shame this couldn't make it to #1 on radio, but I'd take SITW's sales + streaming and a #2 peak over "Til It's Gone"'s or "Perfect Storm"'s sales + streaming and a #1 peak any day.
Now bring on "Little Toy Guns" and let's hope it gets a little better treatment from radio!
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Jan 25, 2015 16:37:34 GMT -5
Hey, the top 2 streak is still a thing on Mediabase, and worse case, she'll have a top 3 streak on Billboard. No other artist has that kind of track record and we Carrie fans need to continue to be proud of that. It's a shame this couldn't make it to #1 on radio, but I'd take SITW's sales + streaming and a #2 peak over "Til It's Gone"'s or "Perfect Storm"'s sales + streaming and a #1 peak any day. Now bring on "Little Toy Guns" and let's hope it gets a little better treatment from radio! Unless you count Alabama's first twenty one singles on RCA reaching the top, but they had already charted several times during the late 1970s prior to being signed by RCA in 1980.
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Post by Daryl the Beryl on Jan 25, 2015 21:42:55 GMT -5
If this doesn't get #1, Little Toy Guns better accomplish that. It'll very likely be the next single
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matty005
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Post by matty005 on Jan 25, 2015 22:00:34 GMT -5
If this doesn't get #1, Little Toy Guns better accomplish that. It'll very likely be the next single Isn't that the only option? I don't see why they would move on from the greatest hits album when it's selling as well as it is.
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Jan 25, 2015 22:03:58 GMT -5
If this doesn't get #1, Little Toy Guns better accomplish that. It'll very likely be the next single Isn't that the only option? I don't see why they would move on from the greatest hits album when it's selling as well as it is. Especially with her being pregnant, so it's not as if there's a new lead single about to be released.
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Post by Daryl the Beryl on Jan 25, 2015 22:11:42 GMT -5
If this doesn't get #1, Little Toy Guns better accomplish that. It'll very likely be the next single Isn't that the only option? I don't see why they would move on from the greatest hits album when it's selling as well as it is. Reason why I said "very likely" is not because of a new lead single (not out too soon as someguy pointed out), but it's the only other new song on the album. I didn't think they'll move on from the album.
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carriekins
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Post by carriekins on Jan 25, 2015 22:23:31 GMT -5
I read somewhere on Twitter on Friday that Little Toy Guns is in fact being releases. (No surprise.)
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