14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Jan 25, 2015 22:36:50 GMT -5
Yeah, a radio station confirmed it this week. I'll find it. DIBS ON MAKING THE NEW SINGLE THREAD I'VE NEVER MADE ONE BEFORE
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jptexas
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Post by jptexas on Jan 26, 2015 9:06:45 GMT -5
The fact that Carrie herself just posted in a thread on her FC's forum probably means it's done. To sum this all up, it's a damn shame. I'm over it. "Little Toy Guns", come slay your chart run until you hit the top 10 and get chokeheld by your label in exchange for those surrounding male counterparts to keep you from reaching your fullest potential! <3 Darn, I was just about to post the same thing. If Carrie gets held back again, ugh, who am I kidding, of course it'll happen again.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Jan 26, 2015 15:02:52 GMT -5
Final numbers from MediaBase:
2 1 ERIC CHURCH Talladega 7929 7672 257 57.149 4 2 CARRIE UNDERWOOD Something In The Water 7936 7432 504 55.788
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jptexas
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Post by jptexas on Jan 26, 2015 15:50:10 GMT -5
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on Jan 26, 2015 16:13:34 GMT -5
^Country radio charts are so rigged that country is the only format whose Medibase chart ranks songs by points instead of simply spins, which is in my view a way to prevent labels from racking up on spins on the smaller market stations (which probably cost less money) to inflate chart positions. This way, even if labels can still cheat the system with overnight spins, it's more costly as they have to take the weight of the station into account and spend more money on the "heavier" stations. I also believe country has the only Billboard airplay chart which ranks songs by audience impressions instead of spins, again a way to make the system less vulnerable to manipulation and spins of songs on smaller stations at odd times (overnight). I believe this was started after the scandalous #1 push for Reba's "Somebody." Someone please correct me if I'm getting my facts wrong. Your facts are right. To play the contrarian, though, the fact that these measures were taken strikes me as a sign that country chartkeepers are the ones that care most about keeping their charts from being rigged, and have instituted measures to make it harder to rig the charts. I don't think the country charts are much more rigged than, say, the top-40 charts. jhomes87 nailed the dynamic, I think -- radio promotion at the country format, while expensive, is still cheaper than it is on the pop formats, and therefore an available option to major labels promoting not only superstar artists and momentum artists with breakout songs, but artists who need momentum and have a song that works for radio. Couple that with the close relationship between the Nashville labels and country radio, and the fact that radio tours (which seem to be something that happens in country radio but not in other formats) give programmers the opportunity to get personally invested in a lot of different artists, and you have a situation where the people in radio just have a lot of artists they would like to see do well. Cue the revolving door. As for "Something in the Water," I am, as predicted, rolling my eyes at the chart outcome. But kudos to @daydrinker, jhomes87, & Zazie for their analyses of what happened, to zaclord 🌈 for his perspective, and to 14887fan for his move to the Humor stage of the "grieving" process. I'm hoping program managers read this and think about how they're spinning. They probably don't care what Saving Country Music thinks, but maybe just maybe they'll think about things. If Carrie wins the vocal Grammy for SITW, now that might open some eyes. Crossing fingers. The Grammy Awards didn't open country radio's eyes to Kacey Musgraves' Same Trailer, Different Park. There is considerably less eye-opening needed in the case of "Something in the Water," considering it still made the top-two/top-three at country radio (as opposed to Kacey, who hasn't seen a top-30 peak since her Grammy wins), but I don't think a Grammy win for "Something in the Water" would get the job done either.
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jptexas
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Post by jptexas on Jan 26, 2015 16:29:13 GMT -5
^^iI always take your view on music seriously, and you saying the reaction from country radio to SITW winning a Grammy would be minimal is not encouraging. But it is what it is.
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blueguitar
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Post by blueguitar on Jan 26, 2015 19:42:49 GMT -5
Wake up Country Radio!!!
Windmills Country @windmillsmusic · Jan 25 Kenny Chesney, Til It's Gone-90k total sold in 17 wks=radio #1 Carrie Underwood, Something In The Water-776k sold in 16 wks=not a radio #1.
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.indulgecountry
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"You left a mark on my face // And brought a dozen red flags in a vase"
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jan 26, 2015 19:58:39 GMT -5
^^iI always take your view on music seriously, and you saying the reaction from country radio to SITW winning a Grammy would be minimal is not encouraging. But it is what it is. The thing is, SITW has already reached its peak and didn't make it to Number One and nothing is going to change that now. You seem to almost be implying that if Carrie were to win a Grammy that radio would be like "Oops" and suddenly ramp its airplay back up so that it can hit #1 even after it's already begun dropping. That's not going to happen. It would probably provide a temporary boost in sales for the song at best, but it's already sold really well so it's not like it needs the Grammys for that.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 26, 2015 20:04:31 GMT -5
Wake up Country Radio!!! Windmills Country @windmillsmusic · Jan 25 Kenny Chesney, Til It's Gone-90k total sold in 17 wks=radio #1 Carrie Underwood, Something In The Water-776k sold in 16 wks=not a radio #1. I definitely think Chesney's song peaked too high, and I'm frustrated with Arista's poor management of SITW at radio, as I feel the song could have gone to #1 fairly easily. However, I'm continually perplexed by the belief that high sales should equal high airplay. I agree that, if a song is selling well, then radio should take notice and bump it up in rotation, but they look at so much more than just sales. There's a reason why sales charts and airplay charts are separate. If the #1 song on iTunes was supposed to be #1 on radio, and #2 on iTunes was supposed to be #2 at radio, then the sales and airplay charts would be exact mirror images of each other, and what would be the point of that? Radio targets certain demographics. Of late they've definitely favored the 18-34 male demo which is largely responsible for the rise in bro-country. The sales of a song like SITW has zero to do with the ratings that radio stations generate, and in the end that is what matters to radio. Now the case can certainly be made that, if radio were to play SITW and other female-led songs more, then they might start bringing back a lot of listeners they've lost over the past few years. I've always been one to argue that point--that radio is ignoring/forgetting about a significant portion of country listeners simply because they (radio) are targeting an audience that is far too narrow. But if most stations feel that their ratings are good (which means they can charge more money to advertisers), then for the most part they are going to stick with what's been working for them over the past [whatever-amount] of time. It's way more complicated than just looking at sales and streaming and airplay. Radio programmers have all kinds of things that they look at. They consider things like TSL (time spent listening), tune-out, what their cross-town rival station is programming, etc. We on Pulse don't know the half of it, I can assure y'all that. In the end, the main reason that Carrie didn't make it to #1 is because both Eric and Luke had a greater percentage of major market spins than Carrie did (big market stations influences the charts more easily than small market stations). In total spins Carrie was right up there with Eric, but he won the battle because he had a higher percentage of spins at big market stations than Carrie did.
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jptexas
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Post by jptexas on Jan 26, 2015 20:32:09 GMT -5
^^iI always take your view on music seriously, and you saying the reaction from country radio to SITW winning a Grammy would be minimal is not encouraging. But it is what it is. The thing is, SITW has already reached its peak and didn't make it to Number One and nothing is going to change that now. You seem to almost be implying that if Carrie were to win a Grammy that radio would be like "Oops" and suddenly ramp its airplay back up so that it can hit #1 even after it's already begun dropping. That's not going to happen. It would probably provide a temporary boost in sales for the song at best, but it's already sold really well so it's not like it needs the Grammys for that. You're reading way too much in my post. I know SITW is done. I, like many others on this site feel that country radio is catering too much to bro country songs and their male singers. I'm hoping things change a bit so to get more females played. That's it.
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Jan 26, 2015 20:38:45 GMT -5
The thing is, SITW has already reached its peak and didn't make it to Number One and nothing is going to change that now. You seem to almost be implying that if Carrie were to win a Grammy that radio would be like "Oops" and suddenly ramp its airplay back up so that it can hit #1 even after it's already begun dropping. That's not going to happen. It would probably provide a temporary boost in sales for the song at best, but it's already sold really well so it's not like it needs the Grammys for that. You're reading way too much in my post. I know SITW is done. I, like many others on this site feel that country radio is catering too much to bro country songs and their male singers. I'm hoping things change a bit so to get more females played. That's it. I think the bro country phase has already gone and passed. Sure, there still are and will be SOME bro country on the charts for at least a while longer, but right now on MB, I only count 5 of the top 50 songs as "bro", and I'm evening being generous by including "Homegrown Honey" which is extremely borderline in my opinion.
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blueguitar
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Post by blueguitar on Jan 26, 2015 21:01:19 GMT -5
Wake up Country Radio!!! Windmills Country @windmillsmusic · Jan 25 Kenny Chesney, Til It's Gone-90k total sold in 17 wks=radio #1 Carrie Underwood, Something In The Water-776k sold in 16 wks=not a radio #1. I definitely think Chesney's song peaked too high, and I'm frustrated with Arista's poor management of SITW at radio, as I feel the song could have gone to #1 fairly easily. However, I'm continually perplexed by the belief that high sales should equal high airplay. I agree that, if a song is selling well, then radio should take notice and bump it up in rotation, but they look at so much more than just sales. There's a reason why sales charts and airplay charts are separate. If the #1 song on iTunes was supposed to be #1 on radio, and #2 on iTunes was supposed to be #2 at radio, then the sales and airplay charts would be exact mirror images of each other, and what would be the point of that? Radio targets certain demographics. Of late they've definitely favored the 18-34 male demo which is largely responsible for the rise in bro-country. The sales of a song like SITW has zero to do with the ratings that radio stations generate, and in the end that is what matters to radio. Now the case can certainly be made that, if radio were to play SITW and other female-led songs more, then they might start bringing back a lot of listeners they've lost over the past few years. I've always been one to argue that point--that radio is ignoring/forgetting about a significant portion of country listeners simply because they (radio) are targeting an audience that is far too narrow. But if most stations feel that their ratings are good (which means they can charge more money to advertisers), then for the most part they are going to stick with what's been working for them over the past [whatever-amount] of time. It's way more complicated than just looking at sales and streaming and airplay. Radio programmers have all kinds of things that they look at. They consider things like TSL (time spent listening), tune-out, what their cross-town rival station is programming, etc. We on Pulse don't know the half of it, I can assure y'all that. In the end, the main reason that Carrie didn't make it to #1 is because both Eric and Luke had a greater percentage of major market spins than Carrie did (big market stations influences the charts more easily than small market stations). In total spins Carrie was right up there with Eric, but he won the battle because he had a higher percentage of spins at big market stations than Carrie did. I get what you are saying. But I have to say I was shocked seeing the huge difference in sales. It's not even remotely close. Betting that if the tables were turned and Carrie had the low sales, no way in hell she gets a number one. Not even close. I'm just pretty sick of some of the A list male solo acts. I just don't get it. Not a Kenny fan AT ALL so that doesn't help my perspective either. Time for a new generation of male artists. Kenny's songs all sound the same to me. Rant done. :)
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matty005
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Post by matty005 on Jan 26, 2015 21:01:35 GMT -5
Oh my god, these last 5 pages are all the same thing. Water was a huge hit. It wasn't a #1, but still a huge hit. Trust me, Kenny would much rather have a song like this that sells that much and doesn't reach #1. Some people need to let it go.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 26, 2015 21:42:13 GMT -5
Aside from whether or not this song deserved to get to the top, I find it odd that Arista has seemingly given up on pushing it. It jumped Talladega to take the #1 spot in the Activator chart (while Talladega lost its bullet) which to me shows that this song has NOT passed it's peak as some are suggesting. I think if they wanted the Mediabase #1 they could get it next week. Maybe they don't care since they technically have a Billboard #1 already and I believe they would not out-do Luke and Eric on *that* chart.
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rbundy1987
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Post by rbundy1987 on Jan 26, 2015 21:54:40 GMT -5
1 2 19 TALLADEGA EMI Nashville HH No. 1 (1 week) HH Eric Church 49.866 +1.737 7919 206 1 2 3 12 I SEE YOU Capitol Nashville Luke Bryan 48.906 +2.398 7451 250 3 3 4 17 SOMETHING IN THE WATER 19/Arista Nashville Carrie Underwood 46.874 +2.377 7761 429 2
Yep, Carrie is definitely peaking at #3 as Luke is ahead of her a little over 2 mil in audience, not even close for a #2 peak for BB Country Airplay. Song did it's job and had great success. Time to move on to hopefully better results with "LTG".
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 26, 2015 21:59:37 GMT -5
Aside from whether or not this song deserved to get to the top, I find it odd that Arista has seemingly given up on pushing it. It jumped Talladega to take the #1 spot in the Activator chart (while Talladega lost its bullet) which to me shows that this song has NOT passed it's peak as some are suggesting. I think if they wanted the Mediabase #1 they could get it next week. Maybe they don't care since they technically have a Billboard #1 already and I believe they would not out-do Luke and Eric on *that* chart. Well, SITW was also #1 on the Activator chart back on Monday the 12th, for the Mediabase-tracking week ending on the 11th. Then it fell (still with a bullet) from 1-3 last week before moving back up to #1 tonight. The Activator chart only measures the airplay at the small markets, though, and we've already established that this song hasn't had trouble getting airplay at those markets. There were like 3-5 major market stations that kept this song from getting to #1. Also, the latest Aircheck Activator chart reflects airplay from last week, and nothing from Sunday and today. SITW literally missed #1 by a fraction of a percentage in terms of audience and points. It came down to the fact that it was just lacking a few too many spins at a couple of big market stations. If you want to know what stations "failed" this song, you could always check the individual station playlists on AllAccess and figure out which major market stations didn't have SITW in their top 10 most-played songs last week. The reason that this is done climbing at radio is because the label did a "max spins for #1" push starting Sunday the 18th and going through the 24th, and they came up short. When you do a push like that, most stations are essentially pushing the song (at the label's request) into the highest possible rotation that they're willing to give for that week (and for that week only). So now that the week is over, most stations will scale back SITW's airplay a bit. To put it in simple chart-watching terms, if you have a gain of 800k on Mediabase one day, that day falls out of the rolling 7-day total a week later. So it's just really tough to extend a last-week "push" for more than a 7-day time period.
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Jan 26, 2015 22:07:19 GMT -5
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bluepaisley
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Post by bluepaisley on Jan 26, 2015 23:22:24 GMT -5
^ This ad from Billboard Country Update made me chuckle a bit. It's like Arista Nashville saying, "well Carrie, we ruined "Something In The Water"'s chances at #1 by holding it back last October and November. We pushed for it last week but we failed. Anyway, we are very proud of you and we're giving you a full-page ad for that." But all things being said, the accomplishments of "Something In The Water" are definitely nothing to sneeze at. This will be remembered as one of Carrie's career-defining singles. :)
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bornfearless2000
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SOMETHING IN THE WATER
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Post by bornfearless2000 on Jan 26, 2015 23:32:55 GMT -5
I still have a feeling that the team hasn't given up on this yet. It will hit #1 Mediabase and #2 BillBoard Airplay next week.
Even if it doesn't, SITW has topped the HCS for 7 weeks and one of the most successful country singles in 2014-2015. It's funny because it's like Carrie's successful singles and albums income are being used to promote / push those boys' singles who barely sell.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 26, 2015 23:34:54 GMT -5
I am 98% sure that this song has peaked at radio. They would not put out a "thank you country radio" ad if they were gonna keep promoting it for another week.
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Jan 26, 2015 23:36:54 GMT -5
Carrie essentially gave her concession speech yesterday, and the song started losing significant airplay on Mediabase today, so I'd be pretty shocked if it didn't fall hard this week.
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Jan 26, 2015 23:49:53 GMT -5
I still have a feeling that the team hasn't given up on this yet. It will hit #1 Mediabase and #2 BillBoard Airplay next week. Even if it doesn't, SITW has topped the HCS for 7 weeks and one of the most successful country singles in 2014-2015. It's funny because it's like Carrie's successful singles and albums income are being used to promote / push those boys' singles who barely sell. I know Til It's Gone had some abysmal sales, and Perfect Storm definitely was out sold by Carrie's recent, but both Brad Paisley and Kenny Chesney have been plenty profitable over the years lol Carrie is not making earnings to promote or keep these two future Country Hall of Fame Inductees afloat.
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bluepaisley
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Post by bluepaisley on Jan 26, 2015 23:56:14 GMT -5
I have always thought that the reason why record labels do not celebrate chart achievements in the revamped Billboard Hot Country Songs is that they do not want to alienate country radio, which for the long time has had the monopoly of determining which songs are hits.
So, I am glad that Sony Nashville is giving credit to the seven-week (and possibly more) stay of "Something In The Water" at the HCS penthouse. Sure, it makes good PR and makes up for Sony's failure to push the song to the top of airplay charts. Also, the HCS methodology is not perfect; but it at least reflects how song popularity is determined by different factors (downloads, streaming, airplay). I hope record labels also give some due recognition to the HCS to send a message to country radio that they cannot play favorites, and more importantly, remain an ole boys club at the expense of talented female country artists.
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bornfearless2000
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SOMETHING IN THE WATER
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Post by bornfearless2000 on Jan 27, 2015 8:04:23 GMT -5
My feeling was wrong. It took a big hit today, -60 spins, -0.6 mil AIs. It's done.
#2 Mediabase Country Airplay #3 Billboard Country Airplay 7 weeks (and counting) at #1 Hot Country Songs Almost 800k digital downloads and still charting in the top 50.
Despite being treated unfairly by radio and label, SITW's run is impressive. This one will be remembered as one of Carrie's finest single.
Hopefully it will win Grammy.
Now, bring on the big gun (LITTLE TOY GUNS).
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jptexas
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Post by jptexas on Jan 27, 2015 9:45:21 GMT -5
7 weeks as the HCS OVER 800K in sales #2 on media-base NOT BAD AT ALL
I guess judging by those number LTG will have sell 1 million, park itself on the HCS peak for 10 weeks to get a mediabase number 1, come on LTG, you can do it
Of course if you're Kenny, Brad, Eric, or Luke just feel free to release your next single, we're good.
I can't wait for her next album of new material.
Final post about SITW.
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rsmatto
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Post by rsmatto on Jan 27, 2015 11:00:45 GMT -5
7 weeks as the HCS OVER 800K in sales #2 on media-base NOT BAD AT ALL I guess judging by those number LTG will have sell 1 million, park itself on the HCS peak for 10 weeks to get a mediabase number 1, come on LTG, you can do it Of course if you're Kenny, Brad, Eric, or Luke just feel free to release your next single, we're good. I can't wait for her next album of new material. Final post about SITW. No, Little Toy Guns" will NOT have to do that. It all depends on the songs around her and whether the song rises fast or not. Only time will tell. I fail to see why every one of CU's songs NEED to be #1s (I'll say the same about any artist). While that's ALWAYS the goal, name the last official CU toplined single to fail to be #1 or #2 on the Billboard or Aircheck Airplay chart. That's right, there isn't one. She's the ONLY artist I know of who has EVER done that.
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desertfloods
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Post by desertfloods on Jan 27, 2015 22:37:54 GMT -5
I fail to see why every one of CU's songs NEED to be #1s (I'll say the same about any artist). How else will she be able to release Greatest Hits: Decade 2 filled with No.1 songs?!?!?!! You're ruining the master plan
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Jan 27, 2015 22:38:40 GMT -5
I fail to see why every one of CU's songs NEED to be #1s (I'll say the same about any artist). How else will she be able to release Greatest Hits: Decade 2 filled with No.1 songs?!?!?!! You're ruining the master plan Decade #2 will be filled with #2 peakers! Like this one! We're already off to a great start!
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desertfloods
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Post by desertfloods on Jan 27, 2015 22:47:34 GMT -5
How else will she be able to release Greatest Hits: Decade 2 filled with No.1 songs?!?!?!! You're ruining the master plan Decade #2 will be filled with #2 peakers! Like this one! We're already off to a great start! Are you saying if she keeps singing for few more decades, we are going to get Decade #4 filled with just #4 peakers?!
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Jan 27, 2015 22:48:09 GMT -5
Decade #2 will be filled with #2 peakers! Like this one! We're already off to a great start! Are you saying if she keeps singing for few more decades, we are going to get Decade #4 filled with just #4 peakers?! Queen of Consistency. :'(
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