sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 27, 2015 20:45:14 GMT -5
I knew that had to happen sooner or later, but it's really unfortunate that it seems to be happening as other non-Cumulus stations are coming on board. I'm still hopeful that it can rebound though, and more ads this week would be great. Don't know about the Billboard adds but after the seven adds Reba got last week on MB, she got zero this week. "Going Out Like That" was able to climb two spots to #32 but I do think the end is approaching.
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Apr 27, 2015 20:50:15 GMT -5
I knew that had to happen sooner or later, but it's really unfortunate that it seems to be happening as other non-Cumulus stations are coming on board. I'm still hopeful that it can rebound though, and more ads this week would be great. Don't know about the Billboard adds but after the seven adds Reba got last week on MB, she got zero this week. "Going Out Like That" was able to climb two spots to #32 but I do think the end is approaching. Unfortunately I agree that the end is coming. Too bad it didn't get any adds this week.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2015 21:06:21 GMT -5
I knew that had to happen sooner or later, but it's really unfortunate that it seems to be happening as other non-Cumulus stations are coming on board. I'm still hopeful that it can rebound though, and more ads this week would be great. For all we know, those Cumulus stations could bump it back up in rotation this week. So there's still a chance, but yeah, I'm not overly optimistic that this one can climb much higher
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surfy
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Post by surfy on Apr 27, 2015 23:11:30 GMT -5
I'm glad that this song isn't done yet!!!
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Post by dreamregent on Apr 28, 2015 21:59:10 GMT -5
This was never going to be a big hit on the country chart anyway. I hope they start promoting the dance remix now. What are the chances they'll make a serious effort to create a dance hit out of it? It seems like a big waste of time and expense to create the remix if they don't plan to do something with it. Edit: The remix is getting some kind of airplay. It's appeared on the dance chart of the Fusion internet radio station (#89).
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moose
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Post by moose on Apr 30, 2015 9:36:02 GMT -5
#23 on BB charts. Air play or not fans are buying it helping it move ahead.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2015 17:19:30 GMT -5
#23 on BB charts. Air play or not fans are buying it helping it move ahead. It had higher sales because she performed on the ACM's and The Voice. Since then, the sales have fallen off a bit, and her airplay has gone down as well...so most likely it will not get any higher than #23 on Hot Country Songs.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Apr 30, 2015 17:24:37 GMT -5
#23 on BB charts. Air play or not fans are buying it helping it move ahead. It had higher sales because she performed on the ACM's and The Voice. Since then, the sales have fallen off a bit, and her airplay has gone down as well...so most likely it will not get any higher than #23 on Hot Country Songs. I fear #31 will be its peak on the airplay chart. Too bad. I hope Enough gets released and gets joint promotion from Mercury, Jennifer Nettles' label.
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moose
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Post by moose on Apr 30, 2015 20:55:38 GMT -5
Probably so but I give her credit for the extensive promo events she did, it helped tremendously with single and CD, which is #1 for 2nd week and 13 over all on BB 200. Last I heard the single was over 100'000 in sales.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on May 1, 2015 7:39:19 GMT -5
Probably so but I give her credit for the extensive promo events she did, it helped tremendously with single and CD, which is #1 for 2nd week and 13 over all on BB 200. Last I heard the single was over 100'000 in sales. First, welcome to Pulse Music Board, moose! Second, Going Out Like That is the #9 selling single this week at 25,000. So far, 128,000 have been sold.
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McCreerian
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Post by McCreerian on May 2, 2015 16:24:11 GMT -5
Reminder...tonight Reba will be playing the Opry at 8:45 Central time, and have the entire 1/2 hour to herself. It's her first Opry performance since 2009. I know I'll be listening online!
Reba played
Going Out Like That Until They Don't Love You The Night the Lights Went out in GA Is There Life Out There Fancy
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someguy
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Post by someguy on May 4, 2015 19:44:39 GMT -5
Thankfully she rebullets this week, so she still has at least two more weeks on the chart. I'm hopeful that with all of next week's recurrents she can make the top 30.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2015 1:19:55 GMT -5
Thankfully she rebullets this week, so she still has at least two more weeks on the chart. I'm hopeful that with all of next week's recurrents she can make the top 30. I'm a bit surprised that she was able to re-bullet, but good for her. We're in desperate need of a housecleaning (seriously, like 10 songs would have to go recurrent to get audience levels back to normal, especially near the bottom of the chart), but this is one song I'd rather not see drop off. This might sound harsh, but it'd be nice if radio would drop the singles from Chase Rice, Dustin Lynch, and Gloriana - these are old songs that aren't selling; they're basically going nowhere in a hurry. And while I like Eric Paslay's "She Don't Love You", I think that one's gone about as high as it's gonna go, so it can leave anytime now too. We'll definitely lose Lee Brice, ZBB, and Sam Hunt (all from the top 10) next week, so that should help. Reba will surely get passed by ZBB's "Loving You Easy", but if just the 3 top 10 songs go recurrent, then Reba will have a good chance to enter the Billboard top 30. The only immediate threat behind her is Brett Eldredge's new one--if he gets ahead, then that could hold Reba to #31, but she could make up for it by re-passing Kip Moore. I see at least 4 scenarios for GOLT next week: 1) ZBB, Sam, and Lee go recurrent; ZBB's new one passes Reba; Reba passes Kip Moore AND holds off Brett Eldredge - this would move GOLT up to #29. 2) ZBB, Sam, and Lee go recurrent; ZBB's new one passes Reba; Reba holds off Brett but Kip stays ahead - this would move GOLT up to #30. 3) ZBB, Sam, and Lee go recurrent; ZBB's new one passes Reba; Reba passes Kip but Brett passes Reba - this would move GOLT up to #30. 4) ZBB, Sam, and Lee go recurrent; ZBB's new one passes Reba; both Kip and Brett finish ahead of Reba - this would only move GOLT up to #31. Of course, for any of these scenarios to happen, Reba has to be able to gain herself, or at least stay fairly steady. If she falls back toward 6 million or less, then suddenly she's in danger of getting passed by Chase Rice, Mickey Guyton, Big & Rich, and Lady A. The wildcard factor is if someone like Eric Paslay, Gloriana, Rascal Flatts, or Dustin Lynch decides to throw in the towel (all of their songs are old enough to go recurrent if they were to suddenly start dropping).
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sbp17
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Post by sbp17 on May 5, 2015 2:21:38 GMT -5
Yes, it would appear the next update is her best shot for top 30. After that, I say Enough is Enough so bring on Enough.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on May 5, 2015 7:52:32 GMT -5
Yes, it would appear the next update is her best shot for top 30. After that, I say Enough is Enough so bring on Enough. That should be Enough!
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Kanenrá:ke
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Post by Kanenrá:ke on May 5, 2015 8:47:46 GMT -5
Thankfully she rebullets this week, so she still has at least two more weeks on the chart. I'm hopeful that with all of next week's recurrents she can make the top 30. I'm a bit surprised that she was able to re-bullet, but good for her. We're in desperate need of a housecleaning (seriously, like 10 songs would have to go recurrent to get audience levels back to normal, especially near the bottom of the chart), but this is one song I'd rather not see drop off. This might sound harsh, but it'd be nice if radio would drop the singles from Chase Rice, Dustin Lynch, and Gloriana - these are old songs that aren't selling; they're basically going nowhere in a hurry. And while I like Eric Paslay's "She Don't Love You", I think that one's gone about as high as it's gonna go, so it can leave anytime now too. We'll definitely lose Lee Brice, ZBB, and Sam Hunt (all from the top 10) next week, so that should help. Reba will surely get passed by ZBB's "Loving You Easy", but if just the 3 top 10 songs go recurrent, then Reba will have a good chance to enter the Billboard top 30. The only immediate threat behind her is Brett Eldredge's new one--if he gets ahead, then that could hold Reba to #31, but she could make up for it by re-passing Kip Moore. I see at least 4 scenarios for GOLT next week: 1) ZBB, Sam, and Lee go recurrent; ZBB's new one passes Reba; Reba passes Kip Moore AND holds off Brett Eldredge - this would move GOLT up to #29. 2) ZBB, Sam, and Lee go recurrent; ZBB's new one passes Reba; Reba holds off Brett but Kip stays ahead - this would move GOLT up to #30. 3) ZBB, Sam, and Lee go recurrent; ZBB's new one passes Reba; Reba passes Kip but Brett passes Reba - this would move GOLT up to #30. 4) ZBB, Sam, and Lee go recurrent; ZBB's new one passes Reba; both Kip and Brett finish ahead of Reba - this would only move GOLT up to #31. Of course, for any of these scenarios to happen, Reba has to be able to gain herself, or at least stay fairly steady. If she falls back toward 6 million or less, then suddenly she's in danger of getting passed by Chase Rice, Mickey Guyton, Big & Rich, and Lady A. The wildcard factor is if someone like Eric Paslay, Gloriana, Rascal Flatts, or Dustin Lynch decides to throw in the towel (all of their songs are old enough to go recurrent if they were to suddenly start dropping). Could "Buy Me A Boat" climb high enough to be a threat?
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2015 13:37:24 GMT -5
^It's possible, but I think Reba will be safe for one more week. I'm not expecting the Chris Janson song to be that big a radio hit like "Leave the Night On" or "Smoke," but I can see it performing on par with "Take It on Back" or "Kiss You in the Morning." Michael Ray's "Kiss You in the Morning" had 8.5 million audience on Billboard after its first week of OTV treatment, but less than 5 million of that audience was gained during the week his OTV treatment began, meaning his numbers may be a bit higher than Chris' will be since Chris hasn't been climbing the charts for a few weeks like Michael Ray was when the OTV treatment began. I can see "Buy Me a Boat" debuting with 5-6 million audience. Since Reba is over the 6 million mark, as long as she doesn't end up with a big loss for this week, I think "Going Out Like That" will stay ahead of "Boat" on the next Billboard airplay chart. This already had a pretty strong gain of over 200k audience on Mediabase today to start off the new BDS tracking week, so it looks like Reba may get another top 30 hit yet.
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2015 22:27:54 GMT -5
Could "Buy Me A Boat" climb high enough to be a threat? I didn't even bring up Chris because he's more than 5 million behind and I don't think he can make up that entire deficit in 1 week, even with OTV airplay. GOLT had a nice gain on MB today - up 50 spins and just over 200k in audience. Brett gained 622k so we'll definitely keep an eye on him, but Kip stayed flat.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2015 23:31:46 GMT -5
I hadn't noticed that "Buy Me a Boat" has already debuted on the Billboard chart, with 1.194 million audience this week. Looking at the numbers songs usually end up with after one week of OTV airplay, it seems On the Verge songs tend to gain roughly 4-5 million audience in the first week of getting this treatment (with the exceptions of "Smoke" and "Leave the Night On," which were far bigger hits than these On the Verge songs usually tend to be).
"Kiss You in the Morning" - 8.576 million audience after first week of OTV, (+4.713 million from previous week) "Smoke" - 8.893 million after first week, (+6.993 million) "God Made Girls" - 12.571 million after first week, (+5.223 million) "Take It on Back" - 7.012 million after first week, (+4.272 million) "Leave the Night On" - 7.080 million after first week, (+5.946 million) "Where It's At" - 8.532 million after first week, (+4.157 million) "Keep Them Kisses Comin'" - 7.262 audience after first week, (+5.010 million)
If Chris Janson's song is consistent with these numbers, it could end up with 5-6 million audience on the next Billboard chart (as I guessed in the last post). Reba's "Going Out Like That" had 6.456 million audience on Billboard this week, which would mean she's likely to be safe, unless this Chris Janson song really takes me by surprise and becomes a smash like "Smoke" and "Leave the Night On." Given the iTunes sales have been high so far, I guess this is a possibility. If Chris does have a big 6 million audience gain, then he could easily end up in the top 30 ahead of Reba with closer to 7 million audience. This would require Reba to both stay ahead of Brett and pass Kip in order to get a spot in the top 30.
I do think it's pretty likely Reba's team will move on to a new single after getting this in the top 30. The flaw with the Nash Icons system is that the Nash stations seem to be playing this way too much, which could contribute to a high burn rate for this and future Nash Icons singles. The Cumulus station I get has had this in heavy rotation for way longer than any song that's gone all the way to #1, which is downright insane and is obviously an attempt to overcompensate for resistance iHeartMedia may be showing. I'm just not sure this is a sustainable business plan. Reba's album had strong first-week sales, but I'm still unsure of whether her single would have peaked higher, lower, or around the same spot on the charts if she weren't getting overplayed by Cumulus stations and underplayed by IHM stations. It'll be interesting to see what remedies the Nash Icons label tries with Reba's next single and future Nash Icons.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2015 11:06:56 GMT -5
Could "Buy Me A Boat" climb high enough to be a threat? Well, it looks like you were right to worry, Kanenrá:ke. I didn't think Chris would be able to pass Reba by Monday (like @daydrinker, I was thinking he'd finish with around 6 million in audience, maybe 7 mil at most), but the RTT has him up 4.93 million in the last 5 days. And since he started the week with 1.2 mil, that means he's already above 7 mil, and there's still 2 days to go. So I've got Chris not only finishing easily ahead of Reba, but also ahead of Kip Moore as well. I've got him landing somewhere in the Thomas Rhett/Maddie & Tae range, and easily within the top 30 (I actually just posted my full projections). It does look like Reba will remain ahead of Brett Eldredge for at least one more week, but I still think Monday might be her best chance to get into the top 30, and unless she can somehow finish ahead of Kip Moore, it seems she's going to come up just short. Maybe if 2 songs go recurrent next week (Dierks and...Eric Paslay? Gloriana? Rascal Flatts?) Reba will have another decent chance, but I'm not sure how much longer GOLT will be able to keep gaining, and if she just stays still, she'll be in danger of getting passed by other songs.
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someguy
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Post by someguy on May 9, 2015 12:07:33 GMT -5
I sure hope that the OTV program doesn't stop this from making the top 30. I'm hoping that she can pass Kip this week, but it would be much better if Chris Jansen wasn't flying by her.
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someguy
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Post by someguy on May 11, 2015 19:44:01 GMT -5
Chris Jansen gets ahead, Kip Moore stays ahead and the ZBB remain on the chart, so Reba stays at #32 :( . On the upside, she had a good week gaining over 700k, and she may have a shot again next week.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 11, 2015 20:23:28 GMT -5
Why is "Homegrown" even still on the chart? Hasn't it lost for the last three weeks? Plus, I don't think there is anything noteworthy about that song, seriously, get it off the chart? Also, is there a chance this boat song will drop next week because the plays were inflated this week for OTV, kinda linked a Clear Channel deal?
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on May 11, 2015 20:29:54 GMT -5
Why is "Homegrown" even still on the chart? Hasn't it lost for the last three weeks? Plus, I don't think there is anything noteworthy about that song, seriously, get it off the chart? Also, is there a chance this boat song will drop next week because the plays were inflated this week for OTV, kinda linked a Clear Channel deal? "Buy Me A Boat" will only increase in numbers and chart position. It should crack the top 25 on Billboard next Monday. The iHeartMedia stations keep the song in regular rotation. It's going to stay ahead of Reba. OTV is setup to allow these songs a quick rise to the top half of the chart. It'll slow down some eventually but not now.
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someguy
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Post by someguy on May 11, 2015 22:23:12 GMT -5
Why is "Homegrown" even still on the chart? Hasn't it lost for the last three weeks? Plus, I don't think there is anything noteworthy about that song, seriously, get it off the chart? Also, is there a chance this boat song will drop next week because the plays were inflated this week for OTV, kinda linked a Clear Channel deal? Billboard doesn't drop songs until they're below #10 in spins or AI, so "Homegrown" will stay until one of those things happen (I think it will be next week). It's #8 in AI (which is why it's #8 on the chart), and also #9 in spins, so it gets to stay on this week. I think it will drop below #10 in at least spins next week, so it should go then. The only way I see it staying is if it passes "Say You Do" (which I think is possible) and neither "Sangria" or "Love Me Like You Mean It" pass it in spins or AI. I think that both should pass it in at least spins, so it will likely go recurrent on next week's chart.
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Libra
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Post by Libra on May 12, 2015 2:24:10 GMT -5
Why is "Homegrown" even still on the chart? Hasn't it lost for the last three weeks? Plus, I don't think there is anything noteworthy about that song, seriously, get it off the chart? Also, is there a chance this boat song will drop next week because the plays were inflated this week for OTV, kinda linked a Clear Channel deal? Billboard doesn't drop songs until they're below #10 in spins or AI, so "Homegrown" will stay until one of those things happen (I think it will be next week). It's #8 in AI (which is why it's #8 on the chart), and also #9 in spins, so it gets to stay on this week. I think it will drop below #10 in at least spins next week, so it should go then. The only way I see it staying is if it passes "Say You Do" (which I think is possible) and neither "Sangria" or "Love Me Like You Mean It" pass it in spins or AI. I think that both should pass it in at least spins, so it will likely go recurrent on next week's chart. If I read the recurrent rule correctly, the spins clause doesn't kick in until a song passes 20 weeks, so toss that for next week. But, it'll likely be a moot point anyway, as I also see them losing too much audience for them to stay. (Simply apply the same decrease/increase for this week for both them and Kelsea, to next week, and they lose to her by about 400K, regardless of what Dierks does.)
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sbp17
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Post by sbp17 on May 18, 2015 20:43:24 GMT -5
At 31 this week. I give up and think they should too. Just go ahead and release Enough.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2015 21:39:40 GMT -5
At 31 this week. I give up and think they should too. Just go ahead and release Enough. I was thinking that she might have a good chance next week...but then I remembered that Luke Bryan's new single is out tomorrow morning. He'll already be ahead of Reba (in terms of building audience on Billboard) by Wednesday morning, I'd bet, since "Kick The Dust Up" is getting once-an-hour spins from iHeartMedia stations, and since it's a Luke Bryan lead single. Maybe "Games" will plummet this week and the 2 Luke songs will cancel each other out, but Reba would still have to pass at least 1 song to make the top 30, or have at least 1 song go recurrent. Eric Paslay, Gloriana, and Rascal Flatts are all possible recurrent candidates, and Kip Moore is still within range (he's only about 600k ahead). The only other threat behind GOLT is Chase Rice (less than 100k behind now), although both Old Dominion and Sam Hunt are coming up pretty fast. As much as I love GOLT, I think "Enough" would make for a great radio single and I wouldn't complain if they do send it out soon. I'm curious to see how it would do.
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someguy
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Post by someguy on May 19, 2015 18:10:07 GMT -5
I'd still like to see this hit at least the top 30 before throwing in the towel. Eric Paslay seems to be doing his part ton help her, but of course it's only Tuesday and a lot can still happen. One more recurrent, or getting ahead of Kip Moore would do it, even if "Games" doesn't collapse (which I'm still hoping for).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 19, 2015 18:17:45 GMT -5
I'd still like to see this hit at least the top 30 before throwing in the towel. Eric Paslay seems to be doing his part ton help her, but of course it's only Tuesday and a lot can still happen. One more recurrent, or getting ahead of Kip Moore would do it, even if "Games" doesn't collapse (which I'm still hoping for). Eric could still rebound he's not out yet Kip is gonna stay ahead I guarantee it. Even If Games collapses Kick The Dust Up could just pass Reba. As for one more recurrent Rascal Flatts Riot could help but even then they could hold on it's still Tuesday so a lot can happen but I'm thinking Reba's still gonna get held back especially if Chase Rice passes her. Reba's gonna need luck to be on her side. I hope she can make it but I have my doubts.
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