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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2015 21:15:04 GMT -5
Carrie had a nice big update today (per Cary's update at Carriefans.com), and the surrounding songs seem to be slowing. It's also worth noting that LTG is much younger than many of the songs around it, this should work in its favor. We'll see, but things are looking pretty good at this point. I would love to see what some of the chart analysts of Pulse have to say about LTG's #1 prospects... *ahem jhomes87* There's no guarantee that LTG will get there, but Carrie did indeed have an especially big update today, and I like her chances quite a bit. The one problem is that, once again, Carrie seems to be on a trajectory to peak at the same time as multiple other songs. I mean, just take a look at today's Mediabase update: Kelsea Ballerini, #5, with 44.153 million in audience. Carrie's at #6 with 44.251 million, Easton is at #7 with 44.015 million, and Blake is at #8 with 44.413 million. That's 4 red hot songs (all of them have seen pretty big gains lately) all within 400k of each other. I have my doubts that all 4 of them can get to #1, and I've been thinking for a while now that 1 of the 4 will likely miss out on scoring a Billboard #1. Blake is the least likely to miss #1..."Sangria" is just flying up the charts and it's consistently been #2 or #3 on the iTunes country chart ever since the ACM's. After that I'd say it's a toss-up between Kelsea and Carrie. Kelsea has a true breakthrough hit here; the song is selling well and she just released an album, so momentum is on her side. Not to mention it would be an incredible achievement if "Love Me Like You Mean It" went #1. Who was the last solo female to take a debut single to #1? Was it Carrie with "Jesus, Take The Wheel"? I honestly don't even know...it's been so long. Furthermore, Easton Corbin has his first big hit in quite a while, and he also has an album out on June 30th, but the one thing that might hold "Baby Be My Love Song" back is that it's just not selling well, at all. It has one of the lowest sales-per-spin ratios of any song on the entire chart. These songs won't be peaking for a few weeks yet; the next 2-3 weeks at #1 should be split between FGL and Kenny, and after that is when things will get really interesting. Easton could start to pick up more steam toward the end of the month (again, due to his album release), but Carrie might also pick up some steam after the CMT Awards. Normally televised performances don't seem to do a lot in terms of boosting airplay, but Carrie is one of the few country artists who usually sees a decent sales spike after a performance. Suffice it to say, Carrie's momentum is slowly increasing as well, now that she's starting to make and schedule more public appearances. All in all, it's still too soon to know how this brawl will shake out. All I know is that there's no way Blake's "Sangria" is missing the top spot, and it could cause trouble for the others if it stays there for 2+ weeks. I think it's acting like a 3-week #1, but 3-week #1's are so rare these days, and with 4 songs packed so closely together it'll be especially hard for 1 song to block the others. But again, I do think at least one of them will miss out. My guess would be Easton Corbin (I'm thinking he'll peak somewhere in the 2-5 range), but Carrie is gonna have her work cut out for her as well. I get the sense that there won't be any slowing down for Blake and Kelsea...in which case it might be better for Carrie to deliberately slow down a bit and wait them out. After all, after this foursome, the next likely #1 candidate is "Girl Crush", and LBT is still a long way back (just entering the top 10). However, in the past, Sony/Arista has slowed Carrie down and it's backfired on them. Usually I'm not an advocate to deliberately slow a song down, but this is one of the rare cases where I think it might be worth considering. In simpler terms...Carrie is maybe 1800 spins away from #1 (on Mediabase). All I'm saying is that, rather than having 4 weeks of 400-500 spins gained, perhaps it'd be a better approach for LTG to average 300 spins gained over the next 6 weeks. That would allow the next 5 charts to be divided among FGL, Kenny, Blake, and Kelsea, and then Carrie can make a run at #1 after those 4 are out of the way. It'd be a bit of a gamble on Sony's part though...can "Little Toy Guns" keep climbing all the way through the 2nd week of July? On the flip side, I think it would also be a gamble for Sony to go head-to-head with either Blake or Kelsea. The one thing I would like to add is that the youth of "Little Toy Guns" won't play any role here at all. Carrie just wrapped up her 17th week on the Billboard chart, and normally her singles don't last that long past 20 weeks (sometimes less). Kelsea just finished her 35th chart week, and Easton his 38th. There are different rules in place for A-listers and non-A-listers. Big names like Carrie and Blake (and Kenny and Keith and Tim and Brad and Miranda, etc) rarely get more than 20-25 weeks, but it's very common for newer artists (B-listers, C-listers, whatever you want to call them) to spend 30 to 40-some weeks on the chart. In short: there's no clear path to #1 for Carrie, but as long as she can keep gaining through the end of the month (and perhaps beyond), she'll be in the hunt. I think "Little Toy Guns" is strong enough to win out, but it could depend (once again) on 1) how the other 2-3 competitors do in the next few weeks, and 2) on how Sony approaches the final few weeks of radio promo. Edit: Just saw Typo's post above. That would seem to indicate that Sony wants LTG to peak either on Sunday the 21st or Sunday the 28th. As I explained above, I think they'd be better off trying to wait out Blake and Kelsea, but it appears that that's not in the cards. Rather, it appears that Sony will do battle with the others. I expect we'll see LTG remain neck and neck with Blake, Kelsea, and Easton over the next 3-4 weeks, and it'll be on its way down by the time July rolls around. All I know is that I don't want to see another strong Carrie single peak at #2 or #3, even if it somehow gets to #1 on Mediabase. I'm #TeamBillboard, and I'm rooting for Carrie to pick up her first Billboard Country Airplay #1 since "Blown Away" in 2012.
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jptexas
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Post by jptexas on Jun 2, 2015 19:09:55 GMT -5
2 tomatoes and 2 pieces of lettuce battling out for the top spot. I've got my money on the biggest tomato.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 3, 2015 9:53:36 GMT -5
My money is on the biggest piece of lettuce.
Carrie is screwed I don't see her catching up to Blake on time before she peaks. She could pass Easton but it's just gonna be such a blood-bath that I don't know if Carrie can get the BB #1. MB is for sure. But BB I mean Kelsea is coming in fast (I should really stop requesting Kelsea). Blake already made the pass. Splits he's not slowing down. Carrie needs to start putting the foot on the accelerator to the max. I feel like the bad Wednesdays update last week is really gonna bite Carrie in the but.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Jun 3, 2015 10:06:47 GMT -5
My money is on the biggest piece of lettuce. Carrie is screwed I don't see her catching up to Blake on time before she peaks. She could pass Easton but it's just gonna be such a blood-bath that I don't know if Carrie can get the BB #1. MB is for sure. But BB I mean Kelsea is coming in fast (I should really stop requesting Kelsea). Blake already made the pass. Splits he's not slowing down. Carrie needs to start putting the foot on the accelerator to the max. I feel like the bad Wednesdays update last week is really gonna bite Carrie in the but. Carrie Underwood doesn't have to catch up to Blake Shelton. Let him go up first and then Underwood can knock him off the top (I hope).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 3, 2015 10:10:11 GMT -5
My money is on the biggest piece of lettuce. Carrie is screwed I don't see her catching up to Blake on time before she peaks. She could pass Easton but it's just gonna be such a blood-bath that I don't know if Carrie can get the BB #1. MB is for sure. But BB I mean Kelsea is coming in fast (I should really stop requesting Kelsea). Blake already made the pass. Splits he's not slowing down. Carrie needs to start putting the foot on the accelerator to the max. I feel like the bad Wednesdays update last week is really gonna bite Carrie in the but. Carrie Underwood doesn't have to catch up to Blake Shelton. Let him go up first and then Underwood can knock him off the top (I hope). See I think she's not slowing down on MB she's hosting Country-Countdown USA soon. That's why she needs to catch Blake on Billboard she's gonna peak before Blake and that's why she need to re-pass Kelsea on MB and pass Easton and Blake on BB
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Ten Pound Hammer
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Post by Ten Pound Hammer on Jun 3, 2015 11:26:18 GMT -5
When's the last time a song had a gain in airplay, but still fell two slots within the Top 10?
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pnobelysk
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Post by pnobelysk on Jun 4, 2015 23:20:07 GMT -5
New peak of 59 on the hot 100 this week
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kml567
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Post by kml567 on Jun 5, 2015 6:51:54 GMT -5
I fully expect the big lettuce to be #1 on both charts by 6/28-6/29, so it's gonna be a rare tomato vs tomato battle for #1 on 6/21. I don't care either way, but I may bring out the popcorn watching the meltdown if the big tomato gets blocked by that new young tomato.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Jun 5, 2015 9:28:19 GMT -5
Ok so I've been watching this battle from afar for a while. I'm about 90% confident that Carrie will hit #1. I think FGL will obviously take next week and Kenny the week after. If Carrie keeps on gaining or is able to keep up wirh Kelsea, then I think Sony will be able to make a big push to make LTG #1, and I think Kelsea could take the next week or vice versa. Sangria is still very new and young and has more life left than Carrie or Kelsea do. I see the two girls both getting a week at the top, then Blake will zoom up the next week with Easton missing out.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Jun 6, 2015 16:49:24 GMT -5
After this song's 6th BB chart week I said I thought it would reach #1 in chart week 19, and now it's going to miss that by a week or two. But I suspect it will get a week at #1 on BB while Ballerini gets a week at #1 on MB. Blake will stand aside for a week to "allow" this to happen.
Or not. But if it does get to the top, it will have had a very strong chart run, as befits a huge radio star like Underwood. Country radio is unfriendly to women but still is willing to make an exception for their biggest female star.
Anyway, it's still on target and I hope this song can finish off the #1 run.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2015 5:27:00 GMT -5
I think this week will be Kenny and Grace. Afterwards I think Kelsea will sneak ahead and get a week at the top for both BB on MB. Then I think Carrie and Blake will duke it out and we will see who pulls ahead. If Blake plays nice he can just hold off on #1 till after Carrie goes on top Carrie would finally get a BB #1. Lets hope so.
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sbp17
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Post by sbp17 on Jun 8, 2015 7:21:44 GMT -5
It would be cool if Kelsea and Carrie could ascend to the top consecutively after such a long drought of females at the top.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Jun 8, 2015 9:31:18 GMT -5
At this point, Kelsea is about 200k AI ahead of Carrie so her lead over her is shrinking. Kenny is going to go up next then it will be down to the veteran female vs the new female. I see both of them making it to the top with Blake about 1.3 million AI behind Carrie, so they have room for both to get their #1, then tumble down the chart so Blake and take over and probably get at least 2 weeks at the top before Jason takes over. This has been an exciting chart race to watch!
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2015 10:16:04 GMT -5
At this point, Kelsea is about 200k AI ahead of Carrie so her lead over her is shrinking. Kenny is going to go up next then it will be down to the veteran female vs the new female. I see both of them making it to the top with Blake about 1.3 million AI behind Carrie, so they have room for both to get their #1, then tumble down the chart so Blake and take over and probably get at least 2 weeks at the top before Jason takes over. This has been an exciting chart race to watch! The "problem" with this is that it's only taking into account the Mediabase chart, and the Mediabase chart is not the one with the drought of female #1's. Miranda got there with "Automatic", Carrie got there with "Two Black Cadillacs" and "See You Again". There haven't been very many female singles to go #1 on MB in the last couple of years, but at least a few have made it. On Billboard, no solo female has reached #1 since Carrie's "Blown Away". And on Billboard, Blake is much closer to Kelsea and Carrie than he is on Mediabase, which means he's more of a threat...and thus I'm worried we might be looking at yet another scenario where the female artist has to settle for a Mediabase-only #1. In this case it could be 2 female artists settling for Mediabase-only #1's, although I'm hopeful that at least one of them can make it to #1 on Billboard as well, and stop the "no-female-#1's" drought. I'm not saying that Carrie and Kelsea don't have a chance to go #1 on Billboard...I'm simply saying that things look rather dicey, and there's no way I'm betting against Blake. If "Sangria" surges back ahead of Carrie and/or Kelsea at any time in the next couple of weeks (before either of them has a chance to go #1 on Billboard), then I'd say the ladies will be in trouble. Still a lot of ways this could play out, though. Normally I get tired of the whole "new #1 every week" thing, but in this case I'd like to see FGL start to fall this week, with Kenny only getting 1 week at the top (a week from today), then Kelsea and Carrie can each get a week at #1 (on both charts), and then Blake can take over for however long his heart desires (because whether you like it or not, "Sangria" is clearly the biggest hit in the top 10 right now). I doubt that that's a very realistic hope, though. I feel like somebody--or maybe even two somebodies--is going to miss out on a Billboard #1. Kenny doesn't have any competition (unless FGL goes for a 2nd week at #1), as he's far enough ahead of Kelsea/Carrie/Blake. And Blake has the biggest hit, so it could come down to Kelsea vs. Carrie, that is, if there's only "room" for one of them to sneak in at #1 on BB. Again, I'd like to see all of the contenders score a #1 here, but I'm just not sure if that's plausible.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Jun 8, 2015 12:10:57 GMT -5
It's a shame the 2 girls are peaking at the same time. Both are great songs, but after Sony messed up SITW's chart run, I feel it's time for redemption and Kelsea might end up settling for a MB #1/BB #2 peak, but like you said, only time will tell if Sony decides to try for max spins and drive this past Blake and Kelsea.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2015 12:20:02 GMT -5
Whats happening between Kelsea Blake and Carrie has to be some of the most intense chart fights I have seen since Homegrown Honey and Homegrown that week. There was also the Lonely Eyes Homegrown Take Your Time fight. Also this year the Something In The Water Talladega and I See You. But this easily takes the cake. I forgot who but someone mentioned if Sangria would be a threat well look what has happened. Kelsea and Carrie need to keep mass updating or maybe Blake will slow down and let the girls have their weeks on top. Safe to say the week after Kenny/Grace fall is gonna be fun. I'm certainly going to enjoy it.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Jun 8, 2015 14:47:42 GMT -5
It would be cool if Kelsea and Carrie could ascend to the top consecutively after such a long drought of females at the top. I agree. This is the last time it happened. Sara Evans was replaced at the top by Miranda Lambert. Here's the chart: BILLBOARD TOP TEN FOR WEEK ENDING MAY 14, 2011: 1. A LITTLE BIT STRONGER-SARA EVANS-RCA 2. HEART LIKE MINE-MIRANDA LAMBERT-COLUMBIA 3. Live A Little-Kenny Chesney-BNA 4. What Do You Want-Jerrod Niemann-Sea Gayle 5. Old Alabama-Brad Paisley and Alabama-Arista 6. I Won't Let Go-Rascal Flatts-Big Machine 7. Without You-Keith Urban-Capitol 8. This-Darius Rucker-Capitol 9. Mean-Taylor Swift-Big Machine 10. You Lie-Band Perry-Republic Nashville
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jrb56
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Post by jrb56 on Jun 8, 2015 15:03:55 GMT -5
Solo female singles at 1,2 & 9 and a female lead single at 10. Definitely a few years ago.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2015 21:52:11 GMT -5
As expected, Carrie moves 7-3 on Billboard, re-passing both Blake Shelton and Easton Corbin (Billy Currington and A Thousand Horses also fell below). From tonight's BCU:
She's not that far ahead of the competition, though. Blake (#4) is behind by only 0.563 million, Kelsea (#5) is behind by only 0.633 million, and Easton (#6) trails by only 1.056 million.
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Jun 8, 2015 22:14:45 GMT -5
Amazing, amazing streak. Here's hoping the continued 'tomato' backlash + her promo this week will all play well into her cards.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Jun 9, 2015 9:27:20 GMT -5
Today's update is very encouraging. The fact that she's barely ahead of Blake and Kelsea means that Sony cannot let off the gas anytime soon but keep chugging along. Does anyone know if she is performing LTG or something else on Friday?
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jptexas
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Post by jptexas on Jun 9, 2015 9:36:33 GMT -5
Looks like the big tomato will hit the top spot. Don't you just love tomatoes. They deserve to be loved.
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matty005
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Post by matty005 on Jun 9, 2015 11:48:32 GMT -5
Looks like the big tomato will hit the top spot. Don't you just love tomatoes. They deserve to be loved. Thank god this is going #1.
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bboat11
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Post by bboat11 on Jun 9, 2015 12:00:50 GMT -5
Well, I don't think we can celebrate a #1 just yet... The competition will still be very intense for a couple weeks yet!
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zjames
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Post by zjames on Jun 9, 2015 12:06:31 GMT -5
If this does hit #1 on Billboard, it'll be the first Billboard Country Airplay #1 by a solo female artist since Carrie's "Blown Away" for the weeks of October 27, 2012 and November 3, 2012! For reference, the mongrel chart (Hot Country Songs) was only in its second and third week.
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Jun 9, 2015 12:17:16 GMT -5
Today's update is very encouraging. The fact that she's barely ahead of Blake and Kelsea means that Sony cannot let off the gas anytime soon but keep chugging along. Does anyone know if she is performing LTG or something else on Friday? What's happening Friday? I know tomorrow night she is performing at the CMTs. Nothing has been mentioned about what she's performing, but I'm 99.9999999% positive she'll be performing LTG considering its chart position and the fact that the label is clearly in the process of pushing it to the top.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Jun 9, 2015 13:37:04 GMT -5
Today's update was definitely encouraging in terms of the reasonable chance that Warner would slow "Sangria" down to allow Carrie and Kelsea to battle for #1 and that way Blake would be able to maximize weeks at #1 and sales, which jhomes87 said wonderfully a few days ago. "Sangria" only gained 94k in audience today, while actually losing 26 spins. "Little Toy Guns" gained 573k in audience and "Love Me Like You Mean It" gained 356k in audience. My math has Carrie and Kelsea less than 100 points of separation on MB today, with Kelsea gaining more spins since Sunday, while Carrie has gained more audience since Sunday. If Warner is slowing "Sangria" down, then that would clear the way for at least one of two (Carrie or Kelsea) to claim #1 on Billboard. There's still a few ways this could play out since all these songs are so close in airplay but today was encouraging.
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jun 9, 2015 13:41:20 GMT -5
I hope neither Carrie or Kelsea settle for #1 on MB only or get stuck at #2. Both of them need to hit #1 on both charts before "Sangria" moves in. We need Carrie to end her dry spell of not having a #1 BB hit for almost three years, and Kelsea to end the 9-year drought of female debuts getting to #1.
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Post by countrygirl918 on Jun 9, 2015 13:48:22 GMT -5
This had an ad in last night's Country Aircheck but not one in Billboard Country Update. Here's the Aircheck ad:
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bornfearless2000
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Post by bornfearless2000 on Jun 10, 2015 0:27:28 GMT -5
I hope Sony will do their job and give LTG a big push .
Kelsea can have her #1 after LTG peaks.
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