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Post by Carriefan1190 on Jun 10, 2015 10:11:24 GMT -5
Today's update is very encouraging. The fact that she's barely ahead of Blake and Kelsea means that Sony cannot let off the gas anytime soon but keep chugging along. Does anyone know if she is performing LTG or something else on Friday? What's happening Friday? I know tomorrow night she is performing at the CMTs. Nothing has been mentioned about what she's performing, but I'm 99.9999999% positive she'll be performing LTG considering its chart position and the fact that the label is clearly in the process of pushing it to the top. Oops I meant Wednesday. I thought it was on a Friday, my bad. Wasn't sure I heard rumors of a new song. It looks to me that Blakes label is going to play nice and let at least one of the girls have their #1 and honestly when it comes down to it, Sony vs Black River, Sony should easily be able to take on an independent label and push this to #1 by the end of next week!
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ILLUSION
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Post by ILLUSION on Jun 10, 2015 10:40:56 GMT -5
They are pushing this hard!
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Jun 11, 2015 9:28:08 GMT -5
Alright so last night went perfectly. She swept the awards and dominated her performance. The update today was weak but now Kenny has passed FGL so it's now do or die for Carrie next week. By next Sunday, she probably needs about 6 or 7 million AI to get #1 and needs to pull ahead from Blake and Kelsea. Momentum is definitely on her side!
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Jun 11, 2015 12:05:33 GMT -5
Alright so last night went perfectly. She swept the awards and dominated her performance. The update today was weak but now Kenny has passed FGL so it's now do or die for Carrie next week. By next Sunday, she probably needs about 6 or 7 million AI to get #1 and needs to pull ahead from Blake and Kelsea. Momentum is definitely on her side! I hope so for the triple award winner. Little Toy Guns should be Carrie Underwood's first #1 since becoming a mother. Everything is coming up roses for her.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2015 13:19:48 GMT -5
They are pushing this hard! I wouldn't say that. She had one good spins update earlier this week, but for the most part, all 4 songs (Carrie's, Kelsea's, Blake's, and Easton's) have slowed down quite a bit this week. My guess is that Carrie's label (and possibly Kelsea's label as well) is saving their resources to power up for max spins next week. After all, Carrie co-hosts Lon Helton's countdown on the 20th/21st, and the weekend after that it's Easton Corbin. I'm expecting to see bigger updates beginning on Monday or Tuesday morning. My bet is that Sony will try to allocate some spins from Kenny Chesney's "Wild Child" (which will be #1 on Sunday/Monday, and then will start to fall) to "Little Toy Guns". The wildcards are Kelsea and Blake -- it's possible that Black River will try to battle with Carrie next week, or perhaps they'll wait a week and attempt to go up right after Carrie. And as I've said all along, Blake's "Sangria" is virtually guaranteed of going #1 at some point, but for the time being it appears he's eased off the accelerator a bit, and that makes sense because with Kenny set to be #1 this week, there's really no reason for Blake to be pushing full steam ahead. Anyway...here is an HQ video of Carrie's "Little Toy Guns" performance from last night's CMT Awards: www.mjsbigblog.com/carrie-underwood-performs-little-toy-guns-cmt-awards-2015-video.htmThere is also video there of Carrie accepting her 3 buckles. Thanks to Typo for the link! :)
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Jun 11, 2015 15:23:58 GMT -5
Didn't even realize how well this was selling until RS posted its data. This song sold 16k last week and is now at 302k. With it steadily rising on iTunes (now in the 50s all-genre after staying consistent with movement in the 90s), this will have absolutely no issue going Gold. Impressive, considering its first real live performance of it was yesterday.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Jun 12, 2015 9:25:53 GMT -5
This keeps going back and forth now! Kelsea pulled ahead of Carrie on MB and Carrie's update was not good. It seems like Black River is going to challenge Carrie for the #1. I think though once Kenny peaks on Sunday and gets the #1, he will fall like a rock and all of his spins will go to Carrie and pushing her to #1. This is going to be exciting!
Also good to see her rise digitally. Hoping for another gold single!
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jrb56
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Post by jrb56 on Jun 12, 2015 9:55:45 GMT -5
Yes this is very interesting. I'm sure Black River wants a #1 in the worst way, it would be a big feather in their cap. Unless Blake's song really slows almost beyond Warner Bro. just playing nice don't think both Kelsea and Carrie can get to the top spot.
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rbundy1987
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Post by rbundy1987 on Jun 12, 2015 22:44:26 GMT -5
Whats happening between Kelsea Blake and Carrie has to be some of the most intense chart fights I have seen since Homegrown Honey and Homegrown that week. There was also the Lonely Eyes Homegrown Take Your Time fight. Also this year the Something In The Water Talladega and I See You. But this easily takes the cake. I forgot who but someone mentioned if Sangria would be a threat well look what has happened. Kelsea and Carrie need to keep mass updating or maybe Blake will slow down and let the girls have their weeks on top. Safe to say the week after Kenny/Grace fall is gonna be fun. I'm certainly going to enjoy it. raylatch98, it was me!!! I was the one who said no matter what, that I thought Blake would be a threat to Carrie as she was about to enter the top 5. Here is what I said back earlier on the chart run. I said this back on April 30th!!! Probably a little too early to worry yet but I am fearing the time is coming and that is I am starting to think Blake Shelton's "Sangria" could be a threat to Carrie down the road later in the top ten. This song is coming down everybody's throats and just passed Little Big Town's "Girl Crush" this morning and has still a strong bullet of +773 from a week ago and Blake is still gaining nearly between 50 and 100 spins a day and almost a mil each day in audience which he did today. All I have to say is Blake is bound to slow down some but still I am viewing him as a threat to Carrie down the road. Hope I am wrong on this one but he is white hot like Luke Bryan is who's "Games" which is still gaining unsolicited airplay and in the top 25 on Billboard already and just now #29 on Mediabase. Country radio sure loves it's Country men which is nothing new :) Since Sunday, Blake has gained nearly 400 spins with nearly a 3.5 mil jump in audience and is now #19 now on Mediabase with Carrie at #11 still and has gained about 145 spins and 1.3 mil in audience which is NOT BAD at all, at least she is still gaining but I am starting to think "Sangria" could be a problem down the road. We'll see!!! Also replied to one of the posters on here the same day. I still think he is a threat to Carrie, as he blocked her back in 2013 with "Sure Be Cool If You Did" and "Two Black Cadillacs" was way ahead but slowed down dramatically as it got close to top ten which is to be expected, so no surprise and his song was a lead single at the time but Carrie's was a third single which was going up at a reasonable pace but Blake was killing it with 1 mil audience gains every other day or even over 100 spins a day back 2 years ago. I realize "Two Black Cadillacs" still made #1 for one day that Sunday to be declared a #1 on Mediabase but she was blocked by Blake on Billboard. I know and realize "Sangria" is not a lead single but Blake is like Luke right now which both guys are both white hot at radio right now even though Luke's song is not really a single but it is getting unsolicited airplay and therefore radio loves Luke and know they are excited about his next lead single. Anyways back to Blake and Carrie, I still think Blake is going to let Carrie get into the top ten or perhaps top five before he catches her, but if he does catch her, let him catch her early on so he can get to #1 first and get his run over with and then let Carrie take over. I know this is way out in advance but I hope that Carrie is able to finally clinch a #1 airplay hit not only with Mediabase this time but Billboard as no solo female has topped the airplay chart for Billboard since October 2012 when "Blown Away" topped it for 2 weeks. Blake will slow down that's a guarantee but will it be when he approaches top ten, lot of questions to be answered.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Jun 13, 2015 17:17:13 GMT -5
Today's update was BAD. She lost AI and Blake passed her so I don't know what LTG's future is. It's possible it might have peaked at #3, but we will see what happens when Kenny starts to fall, but Sony has their work cut out for them.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Jun 13, 2015 17:32:49 GMT -5
Today's update was BAD. She lost AI and Blake passed her so I don't know what LTG's future is. It's possible it might have peaked at #3, but we will see what happens when Kenny starts to fall, but Sony has their work cut out for them. This hasn't peaked yet and Blake hasn't passed Carrie on MB yet either. I still expect the final Billboard audience numbers to be close on Monday, for all three songs. I expect Sony to gear up for their push next week, starting on Monday/Tuesday. I think "Sangria" will ease the throttle next week and allow Kelsea and Carrie to battle it out. There's really no need to push hard right now if you're Warner. If they hold back, they can have a clear path to number #1 and maximize audience and weeks at #1, with both Carrie and Kelsea out of their way.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 13, 2015 17:43:23 GMT -5
Saying that "Sangria" is a threat to "Little Toy Guns" is like saying that "Homegrown" was a threat to "Homegrown Honey" or that "See You Again" was blocked by "Little Bit of Everything." If LTG were able to put up the numbers of a #1 on its own, Blake would not be a problem. The thing is that Carrie has started to have trouble gaining audience over the past four days. I'm fairly confident Warner is doing absolutely nothing to push Blake to #1 and they'll go as easy on Kelsea and Carrie as they can.
The scenario that seems to be shaping up is Kelsea pushing for #1 next week and securing the top spot on both charts, with Carrie pushing the following week for a Mediabase-only #1 and a peak of #2 or #3 on Billboard, while Blake gets his first week at #1 on Billboard that week. As I've said before, if Carrie loses the Billboard #1 to Blake, it will be a situation where Carrie doesn't even come close to a BB #1 and only manages to get the Mediabase #1 due to Blake's team playing nice and going easy on the push for "Sangria." (This is actually a similar situation to the #1 push for "Two Black Cadillacs." If Warner wanted, I think they could have easily pushed "Sure Be Cool If You Did" harder and shut Carrie out of #1 on both charts.) The fact that Kelsea Ballerini is having no trouble competing against Blake proves to me that Carrie's trouble missing #1 has nothing to do with Blake Shelton's presence.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Jun 13, 2015 17:45:28 GMT -5
Well today's update on MB has Blake at 49.462 and Carrie at 49.133 with Kelsea ahead at 50.862. I'm just hoping tomorrow's update is better and that Sony starts letting Kenny fall and push LTG with everything they got. I kind of hoping the girls split with Kelsea getting the MB #1 and Carrie getting the important BB #1.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Jun 13, 2015 17:57:26 GMT -5
Well today's update on MB has Blake at 49.462 and Carrie at 49.133 with Kelsea ahead at 50.862. I'm just hoping tomorrow's update is better and that Sony starts letting Kenny fall and push LTG with everything they got. I kind of hoping the girls split with Kelsea getting the MB #1 and Carrie getting the important BB #1. Yeah MB is points based, so Carrie is still ahead on the rolling chart but Billboard's airplay audience is projecting to be very close still, so there's no need to let the audience update today bog you down. And I know I sound like a broken record but labels 100% count and enjoy MB #1 singles. Yes the Billboard drought really upsets me, juts like everyone else, but if a label has doubt they can secure a Billboard #1, then the spins factor is more doable in securing a MB only #1 single and that breeds contentment. Kelsea is definitely gunning for #1 on MB next week and I suspect they will try hard for Billboard as well. Black River has shown no signs of me doubting their efforts over the past two weeks, and I'm actually optimistic they'll get #1 on both charts. @daydrinker's scenario is very possible and the biggest reason I wish that ultimately doesn't happen is so we don't have the "Oh my God, Carrie missed #1 again" discussion. I'm doubtful though that "Little Toy Guns" can wait til the following week if they miss out on #1 this week, and that goes for both charts.
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matty005
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Post by matty005 on Jun 13, 2015 18:02:27 GMT -5
Well today's update on MB has Blake at 49.462 and Carrie at 49.133 with Kelsea ahead at 50.862. I'm just hoping tomorrow's update is better and that Sony starts letting Kenny fall and push LTG with everything they got. I kind of hoping the girls split with Kelsea getting the MB #1 and Carrie getting the important BB #1. I'm not a fan of these daily updates, tbh. Songs have good and bad days, and jumping to conclusions with every update, just is a waste of time in my opinion. I like the week updates we get and the chart analysis from our trusty chart experts here. The daily updates just don't tell the whole story.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 13, 2015 18:26:54 GMT -5
Saying that "Sangria" is a threat to "Little Toy Guns" is like saying that "Homegrown" was a threat to "Homegrown Honey" or that "See You Again" was blocked by "Little Bit of Everything." If LTG were able to put up the numbers of a #1 on its own, Blake would not be a problem. The thing is that Carrie has started to have trouble gaining audience over the past four days. I'm fairly confident Warner is doing absolutely nothing to push Blake to #1 and they'll go as easy on Kelsea and Carrie as they can. The scenario that seems to be shaping up is Kelsea pushing for #1 next week and securing the top spot on both charts, with Carrie pushing the following week for a Mediabase-only #1 and a peak of #2 or #3 on Billboard, while Blake gets his first week at #1 on Billboard that week. As I've said before, if Carrie loses the Billboard #1 to Blake, it will be a situation where Carrie doesn't even come close to a BB #1 and only manages to get the Mediabase #1 due to Blake's team playing nice and going easy on the push for "Sangria." (This is actually a similar situation to the #1 push for "Two Black Cadillacs." If Warner wanted, I think they could have easily pushed "Sure Be Cool If You Did" harder and shut Carrie out of #1 on both charts.) The fact that Kelsea Ballerini is having no trouble competing against Blake proves to me that Carrie's trouble missing #1 has nothing to do with Blake Shelton's presence. I see things a lot differently than you do here. Sure, Carrie has been unable to gain much audience over the last couple of days...but have you ever wondered if maybe Blake is the reason why? When there are 3-4 big hits peaking all in the same time 'window', then a couple of them aren't going to be able to gain big. If "Sangria" wasn't there, and if it was a song by a much less popular artist instead, who's to say that "Little Toy Guns" wouldn't be doing much better right now, in terms of audience gains? (if there was more audience available). It's the same thing with the "Homegrown" vs. "Homegrown Honey" situation you provided. Darius would have probably been able to gain the last bit of audience he needed for a Billboard #1...had it not been for a bigger hit from the ZBB. So I absolutely think that "Sangria" is affecting Carrie. And unfortunately I'm now worried that Arista Nashville is gearing up for another planned push for a Mediabase-only #1. Kelsea has really pulled away the last couple of days, so I think she's the clear front-runner for next week, and by the time the 22nd rolls around, I figure that Arista will be in push-mode for Carrie, but that they'll have sat back and not done enough in the time between now and then (the 22nd)...and thus they'll probably lose the Billboard #1 to Blake. So I agree with you in that sense--I can see Kelsea taking #1 on both charts next weekend, with Carrie getting the MB #1 on Sunday the 28th and Blake getting the BB #1 on Sunday the 29th (in which case Carrie would probably peak at #2 on BB), but if it weren't for Blake, I'm quite confident in saying that Carrie would be having a much easier time here. It's just that Blake's been hotter at radio for years now, and then Kelsea is a newcomer with a good deal of momentum, and she's backed by a rich indie label whose only focus right now is her (none of Black River's other artists have a single at radio right now). Kelsea has a chance to do something that no female artist has done in a LONG time now, and I'm sure that Black River and country radio are well aware of that. I really feel like everybody within country radio is kind of pulling for Kelsea here. I've been kind of buying into 43dudleyvillas' theory that Sony Nashville plans their "peak weeks" several weeks in advance, and that they are unwilling to adjust their schedule even if, when the time approaches, things are suddenly not looking in their favor. And so I'm wondering if this is yet another case where Sony pre-planned the week of the 21st-28th as Carrie's "peak week". Then again, it's been obvious for a while now that Kenny Chesney was going to be #1 this weekend, and so you'd think Sony would want to have back-to-back #1's with Kenny and Carrie, in which case it would make more sense for Carrie's planned "peak week" to be the 14th-21st. We'll have to wait and see. Carrie could still mount a charge beginning with Monday or Tuesday morning's Mediabase update, but these last few updates have not been very kind to her -- they've been much more favorable to Kelsea and Blake. I'm thinking that the top 5 on Monday's Billboard chart will shape up like this: 1) Kenny 2) Kelsea 3) Blake 4) Carrie 5) Easton or FGL
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Jun 13, 2015 18:38:32 GMT -5
Well in general the chart run the last couple weeks has been strange when it comes to Carrie. This will be the 2nd time that LTG has backtracked from its peak. I just feel like I agree with the fact that if Sangria wasn't around, Carrie wouldn't have a problem. I'm just frustrated that Carrie is the formats most played female artist yet she hasn't had a BB #1 in almost 3 years. Just frustrated with chart manipulation and the fact that any female charting has an uphill battle to get to #1. If Kelsea gets the BB #1 I'll be happy that a female got the #1 finally but just frustrated SITW and LTG couldn't get there. I'm hoping she is planning on releasing the lead single off album 5 by the end of summer and that it flies up the charts
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Jun 15, 2015 9:27:03 GMT -5
I can't tell if this is done or not. It posted its 3rd consecutive day of AI loss and I don't know if Sony is deliberately slowing it down to let Blake and Kelsea go up and then try for the #1 after they fall, which is unlikely or if this simply ran out of gas. I know for sure Kelsea will probably be #1 on both charts by Sunday and then Blake. The main thing is that Easton seems to have peaked and the nearest song 6 million from Carrie, but I just don't know.
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ILLUSION
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Post by ILLUSION on Jun 15, 2015 9:29:25 GMT -5
I'm very interested to see what this is going to do from this point forward. Both Kelsea and Blake all have had stable updates and both will most likely hit #1. LTG will have to outlast these and hold steady as to not be passed by Tim/Jason.
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rbundy1987
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Post by rbundy1987 on Jun 15, 2015 9:32:18 GMT -5
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rbundy1987
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Post by rbundy1987 on Jun 15, 2015 9:40:48 GMT -5
I can't tell if this is done or not. It posted its 3rd consecutive day of AI loss and I don't know if Sony is deliberately slowing it down to let Blake and Kelsea go up and then try for the #1 after they fall, which is unlikely or if this simply ran out of gas. I know for sure Kelsea will probably be #1 on both charts by Sunday and then Blake. The main thing is that Easton seems to have peaked and the nearest song 6 million from Carrie, but I just don't know. I doubt Easton has peaked, I believe it has slown down so it can steer clear of the dirty battle in the top 4 right now and hopefully go for #1 in early July and I expect it to hit #1 after Blake with Tim to possibly follow after Easton. I am thinking that Kelsea will take #1 on both charts this weekend with Arista falling short again for Carrie with her peaking at #2 Mediabase but #3 again for Billboard as I see Blake already at #2 for next weekend. I see Blake taking #1 both charts next weekend easily and then it's Easton's turn and I think Mercury will not back down on this one and go all the way for Easton. But think his next single will fall short again with how long he has been on the charts with his song. So ya I think Carrie will have to settle for a #2-MB, #3-BB peak for "LTG". HOPE I'M WRONG THOUGH.
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rsmatto
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Post by rsmatto on Jun 15, 2015 10:24:27 GMT -5
Indeed, they ARE pushing for #1. Look for "Max Spin" stuff now too.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Jun 15, 2015 12:01:14 GMT -5
They are gonna have to push the crap out of this at this point. Kelsea is ahead on MB by 3 million and Blake is 1 million ahead of LTG. I'm worried that if LTG were to hit #1 due to the live track that people would see this as a cheap ploy. All I gotta say is that Sony better be ready to play ball and not do this all half hearted because it seems like Carrie is going to be the "loser" and miss top 2 altogether.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Jun 15, 2015 12:33:18 GMT -5
At this point I'd be shocked if Kelsea wasn't #1 on both charts by this time next week. "Love Me Like You Mean It" has just pulled too far in front of Carrie on MB and she should be ahead of both Carrie and Blake on Billboard. Carrie's audience is low enough that there is plenty of room for growth, unfortunately I think this is playing out the way jhomes87 said in regards to 43dudleyvillas' theory that Sony had this peak week scheduled weeks in advance, and that next week is "Little Toy Gun's" peak week. The problem there is "Sangria", and waiting 'til the next Monday for this song's peak week will most certainly rule out a Billboard #1, and even the MB #1 would be in question since I expect "Sangria" to be doing even better with Kelsea's song falling and Easton's song still being far enough behind to not pose as a threat. Things haven't changed in terms of my thinking over the past few days. Things look great for Kelsea. Things have always looked good for Blake, and thing's don't look so hot in regards to "Little Toy Guns."
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Jun 15, 2015 12:45:16 GMT -5
Thx, Sony.
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Jun 15, 2015 12:54:51 GMT -5
Looking like they're going for 6/29...
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ILLUSION
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Post by ILLUSION on Jun 15, 2015 13:00:13 GMT -5
She should release a remix of this with a rapper on it :)
Carrie Underwood - Little Toy Guns (feat. Lil Wayne)
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Post by Deleted on Jun 15, 2015 21:55:33 GMT -5
Looking like they're going for 6/29... Finally, something encouraging. I saw that they released a live version to radio this morning and that made me want to bang my head against the wall. Normally, live versions are only sent out for last week pushes, and if they were planning on pushing this week, it would make absolutely no sense that they let Kelsea Ballerini pull so far ahead over the last 5-7 days or so. Carrie has very little chance of finishing this week at #1 on either chart. But now, having seen this Twitter post, I'm much more hopeful. Lauren Thomas is the west coast regional promotion manager for Arista Nashville. 06/29 is a Monday, so I'm assuming that they'll push for max spins beginning then, in hopes of having Carrie at #1 for the July 4th weekend. That would allow Kelsea and Blake the next 2 weeks at #1, which I think is a good thing. Again, Kelsea's too far ahead now; there's no way Carrie can contend with her this week. And going up against Blake just doesn't seem like a good idea. So if Sony can keep LTG alive through the end of the month, then they'll definitely still be in the hunt, as I highly doubt Easton Corbin will make it to #1 (he's already running on fumes). On the previous page in this thread, I said I had hoped that Sony would keep LTG going into July, but then I saw the CC-USA co-hosting schedule (Carrie co-hosts this upcoming weekend), and I figured that meant Sony would go for max spins this week. They still could, but I'm hoping they don't even try--this week is a lost cause for Carrie. So hopefully Lauren Thomas' tweet does indeed mean that they'll go for max spins from 06/29 thru 07/05, because they'll have a much better chance at #1 that week, so long as LTG doesn't lose its ability to gain spins/audience. That means LTG would be peaking 2 weekends after Carrie co-hosts Lon's show, but it's not completely unheard of for an artist's single to peak a couple weeks after they're on CC-USA.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Jun 16, 2015 12:03:47 GMT -5
If they are gunning for the 4th of July #1, then 3 things will need to happen.
1. Kelsea and Blake will only be able to spend 1 week at the top each. If either, more Blake than Kelsea spend 2 weeks at the top, then LTG will be done.
2. Easton will need to start dropping otherwise he could pose a threat. With him out of the way, Carrie should have enough time to get to the top.
3. Carrie will need to go for max spins once Blake drops. Either Tim or Jason could start shooting up the chart. I'm more worried about Jason because Tim took forever to get to top 10. If Jason makes a run for it, she could be in trouble. However this is if she can survive another 2 weeks. I worry at over 20 weeks LTG might not sustain.
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Post by countrygirl918 on Jun 16, 2015 19:19:41 GMT -5
I'm confused. If they're waiting until the week of June 29th to push this to #1, why is Carrie starting radio interviews this week? The hashtag in this tweet makes it seem like the push is already on:
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