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Post by 43dudleyvillas on May 27, 2015 11:53:52 GMT -5
raylatch98, Carrie has been building at #8 on Mediabase all week, behind both Easton and Kelsea. I ignored this chart the past two days since the labels and programmers have likely been off for Memorial Day weekend, but we're now three days into the week and Carrie's not holding her own at all. I was frankly expecting Arista to get back to the phones yesterday and have Carrie post a nice 100+ spin gain this morning, which totally didn't happen. I expected a poor update this morning because last Wednesday's update (which rolled off) was an unusually large +170 spins, +869K AI gain for "Little Toy Guns," quite a bit larger than its gains for the rest of last week. As for Arista Nashville, if ads are any indication, its promo team has been busy trying to keep Brad Paisley's "Crushin' It" going outside of the top-10. I don't quite see how the numbers suggest that Easton is running out of steam or peaking anytime soon; he's gained more audience on Billboard than Carrie last week. I'm quite certain Mercury will keep BBMLS going through Easton's June 30 album release date and achieve at least a top 5 peak, probably a Mediabase-only #1. Age of the song notwithstanding, I agree with your comment about Easton's single, and I would apply it to Kelsea Ballerini's single, as well. Perhaps even more so Ballerini's single, because there is no guarantee that a follow-up single from her will be given a chance considering country radio's unwillingness to sustain support of new female artists. So there is a four-way battle for the next level of conversions. I would typically tip Blake to get in first, but I could see both Easton and Kelsea putting up a fight. If past habits are any indication, Arista Nashville will sit back on Carrie's single and then panic during its pre-scheduled peak week next month. That said, "Little Toy Guns" may enjoy a small and temporary advantage early next week because it received no Memorial Day special programming bump.
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Post by Deleted on May 28, 2015 0:16:20 GMT -5
I expect this one to rebound tomorrow. As 43dudleyvillas noted, Carrie had an unusually large gain last week Wednesday morning, and today that gain was replaced in the rolling update. I don't see Easton Corbin getting to #1, but maybe he'll prove me wrong. If the much stronger sellers "Loving You Is Fun" and "All Over The Road" couldn't get to the top, then I don't think "Baby Be My Love Song" will get there either. He's certainly doing better than Carrie is right now, there's no doubt about that, but ultimately I see Easton fizzling out in the top 5 or top 3. Blake's obviously got another #1 on his hands, Kenny will almost certainly get to #1 (before Blake, but after A Thousand Horses and Florida Georgia Line), and Kelsea Ballerini's #1 chances are increasing by the day. But I think Carrie's got a chance yet as well--to go #1 on both charts, that is--or at least, I like her chances better than I like Easton's. Let's see what tomorrow's update brings.
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ILLUSION
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Post by ILLUSION on May 28, 2015 13:02:21 GMT -5
I'm sure her label will manage to get this to #1 somehow for at least a week
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Post by Deleted on May 28, 2015 13:03:57 GMT -5
I'm sure her label will manage to get this to #1 somehow for at least a week Say that to Something In The Water :'(.
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ILLUSION
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Post by ILLUSION on May 29, 2015 9:21:32 GMT -5
I'm sure her label will manage to get this to #1 somehow for at least a week Say that to Something In The Water :'(. SITW didn't go #1? It went #1 on the Billboard Country chart for like 6 weeks right?
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2015 9:23:35 GMT -5
Say that to Something In The Water :'(. SITW didn't go #1? It went #1 on the Billboard Country chart for like 6 weeks right? It didn't get it on the Airplay chart
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ILLUSION
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Post by ILLUSION on May 29, 2015 9:32:43 GMT -5
SITW didn't go #1? It went #1 on the Billboard Country chart for like 6 weeks right? It didn't get it on the Airplay chart Oh wow, where did it peak at...#2?
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on May 29, 2015 9:36:25 GMT -5
It didn't get it on the Airplay chart Oh wow, where did it peak at...#2? #3, her lowest peaking solo-single release on the chart. It was #1 on the hybrid Billboard Country chart for seven weeks. Still pretty remarkable, though, that her lowest peaking solo-single on Billboard's Country Airplay chart reached the top 3.
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carriekins
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Post by carriekins on May 29, 2015 9:36:56 GMT -5
It didn't get it on the Airplay chart Oh wow, where did it peak at...#2? #3 on country airplay, though it did hit #1 on hot country songs (mongrel chart).
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Post by ILLUSION on May 29, 2015 11:17:40 GMT -5
It's kinda of amazing that it did so well on radio (and obviously Billboard too) with it being an overtly Christian single
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surfy
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Post by surfy on May 29, 2015 12:24:14 GMT -5
It's kinda of amazing that it did so well on radio (and obviously Billboard too) with it being an overtly Christian single Yeah, but it's country radio, so it's not that surprising.
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samsager3
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Post by samsager3 on May 29, 2015 12:27:39 GMT -5
I don't like this song at all. I like something in the water didn't think it deserves a number 1 peak and though it wasn't good lyrically but Carrie nailed it vocally but I don't like this at all I wish she'd go back to recording stuff like so small and jesus take the wheel and stop trying to be a pop artist I like the more country sounding stuff. Heck I even liked blown away it sounded country to me this doesn't and it peaked where it should have outside the number 1 spot in my opinion.
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on May 29, 2015 15:44:42 GMT -5
It's kinda of amazing that it did so well on radio (and obviously Billboard too) with it being an overtly Christian single Yeah, but it's country radio, so it's not that surprising. Mmm...yes it is, judging by what radio has played these past few years. The last explicitly religious song they've played as much as they did SITW would probably be "Jesus, Take the Wheel," unless I'm forgetting something in between. Can't think of anything as sizable as those two songs, though. Anyways, how're the updates for this looking?
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on May 29, 2015 16:03:45 GMT -5
Yeah, but it's country radio, so it's not that surprising. Mmm...yes it is, judging by what radio has played these past few years. The last explicitly religious song they've played as much as they did SITW would probably be "Jesus, Take the Wheel," unless I'm forgetting something in between. Can't think of anything as sizable as those two songs, though. Anyways, how're the updates for this looking? "I Saw God Today" by George Strait was a #1 hit in 2008. :) Easton pushed ahead of Carrie today on the MB rolling chart. "Little Toy Guns" gained 447k in audience, while "Baby Be My Love Song" gained 770k in audience. I keep thinking "Baby Be My Love Song" will fall short of a #1 peak either chart but that confidence is getting lower every day it seems. Kelsea and Blake are red hot behind Carrie, and that day where she suffered the significant lost audience hasn't helped her overall, in terms of reaching satisfying numbers by week's end. It appears that Mercury is gunning for at least a MB #1 before the likes of Carrie, Kelsea and Blake get there as Easton's song is really old. I still think Carrie will get to #1, but right now she's got plenty of company.
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on May 29, 2015 16:05:43 GMT -5
Yeah, but it's country radio, so it's not that surprising. Mmm...yes it is, judging by what radio has played these past few years. The last explicitly religious song they've played as much as they did SITW would probably be "Jesus, Take the Wheel," unless I'm forgetting something in between. Can't think of anything as sizable as those two songs, though. "I Saw God Today" came out a little more than 2 years after JTTW and it was really big -- George Strait's last truly monumental hit at country radio. Aside from those two though, I'm not thinking of any others at the moment. I see sabre14 was in my mind just now, lol.
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surfy
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Post by surfy on May 29, 2015 16:36:44 GMT -5
I know, but this is the same genre that sparked "Have a Beer with Jesus" But I get your point.
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on May 29, 2015 16:37:49 GMT -5
I know, but this is the same genre that sparked "Have a Beer with Jesus" But I get your point. And that song stalled just inside the Top 20 because of controversy. It's a shame too because I think that's the only halfway decent song Thomas Rhett has ever sent to country radio.
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2015 17:02:42 GMT -5
^What was the controversy seemed like a pretty bland radio friendly song to me.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on May 29, 2015 17:31:10 GMT -5
^What was the controversy seemed like a pretty bland radio friendly song to me. That the premise of the son of God having alcohol in a casual conversation was wrong. Many Christian beliefs prohibit alcohol or in extreme moderation. Even though I personally regularly go to Church and I am Christian, Rhett's reason for the song was innocent and genuine and I think the controversy was overblown. I wasn't surprised it was only a top 20 hit as Rhett's debut single barely cracked the top 15 and he wasn't the rising star he is now. The charts were also pretty competitive in late 2012. Hopefully I helped explain the situation enough. :) Not to be rude but "Little Toy Guns" is the name of the thread. :)
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2015 17:36:15 GMT -5
.indulge started this not me I just asked. Sabre14 what do you think then of Little Toy Guns
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on May 29, 2015 17:41:50 GMT -5
.indulge started this not me I just asked. Sabre14 what do you think then of Little Toy Guns I didn't say you started it and nobody was wrong in bringing the topic up :). One topic naturally goes into another and that's perfectly normal in the world of rhetoric. I was just trying to steer the discussion back to "Little Toy Guns", in the most polite way possible, lol. Hence the smiley emoticon. :) I really enjoy "Little Toy Guns". If you look at the weekly Pulse Chart thread, you'll see how much I enjoy it. ;)
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2015 8:53:09 GMT -5
Ok even if this song doesn't get #1 there is like no reason why Carrie doesn't get the Female Vocalist of the year wayward Miranda's previous song bombed while Carries this year has done well really there's no reason Miranda wins for CMT awards coming up. Unless Miranda releases a huge hit soon. Carrie should win the CMA awards this fall.
Go Carrie get #1 before Blake catches you.
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Post by matty005 on Jun 1, 2015 9:01:28 GMT -5
Ok even if this song doesn't get #1 there is like no reason why Carrie doesn't get the Female Vocalist of the year wayward Miranda's previous song bombed while Carries this year has done well really there's no reason Miranda wins for CMT awards coming up. Unless Miranda releases a huge hit soon. Carrie should win the CMA awards this fall. Go Carrie get #1 before Blake catches you. If the vocalist awards were given out just based on airplay success, Carrie would have won every year (and also, there would only be 2 nominees every year).
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Jun 1, 2015 9:09:15 GMT -5
Carrie had a nice big update today (per Cary's update at Carriefans.com), and the surrounding songs seem to be slowing. It's also worth noting that LTG is much younger than many of the songs around it, this should work in its favor. We'll see, but things are looking pretty good at this point. I would love to see what some of the chart analysts of Pulse have to say about LTG's #1 prospects... *ahem jhomes87*
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2015 9:11:06 GMT -5
Ok even if this song doesn't get #1 there is like no reason why Carrie doesn't get the Female Vocalist of the year wayward Miranda's previous song bombed while Carries this year has done well really there's no reason Miranda wins for CMT awards coming up. Unless Miranda releases a huge hit soon. Carrie should win the CMA awards this fall. Go Carrie get #1 before Blake catches you. If the vocalist awards were given out just based on airplay success, Carrie would have won every year (and also, there would only be 2 nominees every year). Well let's see for the CMA 2011 Reba Martina Sara Taylor Miranda (Carrie was inactive Should have won Taylor Swift 2012 Martina Carrie Taylor Miranda Jana (yeah one hit) Should Win Carrie 2013 Miranda Taylor Carrie Kacey Sheryl 2014 Miranda Carrie Sara Casadee Danielle There we go that's how the awards should've been. :)
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Jun 1, 2015 10:01:46 GMT -5
Okay.
Anyways, I wonder if this song will potentially see even greater gains than expected due to all of these stations doing extra "women's hour" as retaliation to Saladgate. I know a couple of the stations doing it are on the panels. Also, one more week until we get a live performance of this! Woo!
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2015 10:03:31 GMT -5
If there's ever a chance it's next week for Greatest Gainer title. Luke Bryan won't quite have the bullet with the women stuff really the only threat is probably Kelsea Ballerini but for me it's a win win situation.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2015 15:21:24 GMT -5
Heard this twice in 3 hours hours today at work, so hopefully it's looking good.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2015 20:26:13 GMT -5
I didn't realize the women's songs were getting inflated gains last week due to "SaladGate," as 14887fan pointed out. I do hope this isn't the only reason Kelsea and Carrie have been having big gains. I was started to suspect that this would miss out on #1, but the past few days of strong gains for Carrie had been putting my suspicions to rest. I'm not too fond of this Carrie Underwood single, but it definitely seems like a #1 song and Carrie really deserves this chart-topper after her last single was massively screwed over by Arista Nashville. I'll have to see if the big gains continue through the end of this week to call whether this will go the distance. Mercury is working Easton's "Baby Be My Love Song" really hard and I'm sure they'll keep it going for several more weeks through Easton's June 30 album street date, but the digital sales may be just a bit too weak for Easton to go all the way to #1. Blake Shelton's "Sangria" is selling like hot cakes and is also sure to have a big conversion week this week. I'd say this week will probably involve a battle between Arista/Carrie and Mercury/Easton to pick up heavy conversions. What I think this may come down to is whether Arista is able to pick the right week to push LTG for #1. As 43dudleyvillas mentioned, Sony hasn't made the wisest decisions or been super adaptable about choosing the correct #1 push week in the past.
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Post by Typo on Jun 1, 2015 20:43:07 GMT -5
She's co-hosting Country Countdown USA during the weekend of June 20-21. I would assume Sony has projected "Little Toy Guns" to peak during that week. That's how these things usually work, right, chart watchers?
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