rsmatto
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Post by rsmatto on Jun 16, 2015 19:25:33 GMT -5
I'm confused. If they're waiting until the week of June 29th to push this to #1, why is Carrie starting radio interviews this week? The hashtag in this tweet makes it seem like the push is already on: They are pushing. It just might not work til that week.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Jun 16, 2015 21:01:35 GMT -5
It seems that they are slightly pushing only to keep Carrie in the #3 slot without losing AI to keep her in the hunt. The massive push probably won't be until after Sangria hits #1 next week, so the worst result would be a BB/MB #2 for LTG
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2015 21:19:44 GMT -5
Shawn Parr is with the syndicated show Nash Nights Live, so I doubt that Carrie talking with him signals a major push for LTG this week. And for the record, I don't think Carrie is going to need any sort of massive push to get to #1, unless "Sangria" refuses to relinquish the top spot.
It's clear that Arista Nashville has eased off the throttle for the time being, but that makes sense if they're not aiming to be #1 until July 5/6. Carrie is still probably 5-6 million away from a typical #1 audience total on Billboard, and she's about 1000 spins (give or take a bit) away from typical peak spin levels on Mediabase. They (Carrie & Sony) can't gain all that in a week, nor should they try (they'd fail miserably).
Carrie's not even in a position to make a run at #1 this week--she's too far behind Kelsea. So basically what the label is doing here (or at least, this is how I'm reading the situation) is not requesting a huge bump in spins/rotation this week, because they want to have more spins available to them when they request max spins...which again, seems likely to be the week of June 28/29 thru the 4th of July weekend.
In short, if Carrie were to gain too much this week, then she'd have less room to grow in the following 1-2 weeks. Their goal should be to gain around 1 million this week, maybe a little higher if they want to, then about 2 million next week, and then the remaining 2-3 million during "max spins" week.
If radio and Sony are willing to stick with this song thru the end of the month, then Carrie will still have a pretty decent chance at following Kelsea and Blake at #1.
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on Jun 16, 2015 21:56:37 GMT -5
It's clear that Arista Nashville has eased off the throttle for the time being, but that makes sense if they're not aiming to be #1 until July 5/6. Carrie is still probably 5-6 million away from a typical #1 audience total on Billboard, and she's about 1000 spins (give or take a bit) away from typical peak spin levels on Mediabase. They (Carrie & Sony) can't gain all that in a week, nor should they try (they'd fail miserably). When "Little Toy Guns" updates suddenly went flat late last week, I started wondering if Sony Nashville had called an audible on the timing of its push after all. Carrie's CCUSA co-hosting stint, the release of the acoustic version of "Little Toy Guns" and the fact that she did a syndicated interview for Cumulus this week are probably relics of the original plan, but the fact that she hasn't done her usual round of call-ins to a bunch of stations tells me that Sony is waiting. It was clear that Black River Entertainment was going to successfully gun for Kelsea Ballerini's #1, and I also think that country radio is unwilling to put two females in power (top-3) rotation at once. So instead of trying to fight Kelsea (it would have looked bad, and like you, I wouldn't have liked "Little Toy Guns"' chances in the battle anyway), Sony decided to hold back on trying to get power conversions until after the other female had peaked, which also meant allowing "Sangria" to pass. I'm unconvinced that the gambit will work, because I think it will involve keeping "Little Toy Guns" alive a couple of weeks past its natural peak. But I would also guess that Sony Nashville wants to at least try to close Carrie's Greatest Hits: Decade #1 chapter on a high note, and perhaps make up for its utter screw-up on "Something in the Water."
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bornfearless2000
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Post by bornfearless2000 on Jun 17, 2015 20:40:23 GMT -5
How many weeks has LTG been in the chart? Hopefully all of you chart watchers are right about them holding LTG for 2 week in the top 3 then aiming for #1 in Last week of June / early July. This needs to reach #1.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2015 20:43:17 GMT -5
How many weeks has LTG been in the chart? Hopefully all of you chart watchers are right about them holding LTG for 2 week in the top 3 then aiming for #1 in Last week of June / early July. This needs to reach #1. Carrie just wrapped up her 19th week on the Billboard airplay chart, so this one is maybe just a couple weeks older than most Carrie singles get, but that shouldn't matter here.
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bornfearless2000
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Post by bornfearless2000 on Jun 17, 2015 20:50:42 GMT -5
How many weeks has LTG been in the chart? Hopefully all of you chart watchers are right about them holding LTG for 2 week in the top 3 then aiming for #1 in Last week of June / early July. This needs to reach #1. Carrie just wrapped up her 19th week on the Billboard airplay chart, so this one is maybe just a couple weeks older than most Carrie singles get, but that shouldn't matter here. Then it means that it will chart high on year end chart. :)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2015 5:19:36 GMT -5
In its 13th week, this climbs 55-48 on the Hot 100.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Jun 18, 2015 9:53:34 GMT -5
Getting close to top 40 but unless her downloads increase, I see it peaking in the 43-44 range.
Up to 49.603 or so today so it's still trucking along
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jun 18, 2015 11:26:59 GMT -5
Some dumb radio DJ today played this song and was talking over the intro about how Carrie had done a lot of songwriting during her pregnancy in preparation of her new album, and then she ended by saying something akin to "you can bet that this song will be on it." Actually, no... no, it won't.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Jun 18, 2015 12:13:25 GMT -5
Oh boy. Those DJs should get their facts straight. Obviously if it's already on her greatest hits album, she won't be including it on her new album! That's the waste of track space.
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Jun 18, 2015 16:42:24 GMT -5
Oh boy. Those DJs should get their facts straight. Obviously if it's already on her greatest hits album, she won't be including it on her new album! That's the waste of track space. I doubt it will happen, but I have seen it occur actually, so technically it's possible. The rock band Seether released a single of their Greatest Hits album called "Weak", but it still showed up on the next album even though it wasn't considered a single for the new album.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2015 21:38:49 GMT -5
The next two weeks are going to be very tight in the top 5, as it seems there will be four songs gunning for #1 over this two-week span.
Obviously Blake Shelton's "Sangria" is a lock for #1 on Billboard Country Airplay next weekend. Easton Corbin's 40-week old "Baby Be My Love Song" can't last much longer, and at the very latest I see Easton's team doing a #1 push week after next (June 30-July 5) to coincide with the 6/30 release of Easton's album, although I wouldn't be shocked to see them try for a Mediabase #1 next week. Carrie's "Little Toy Guns" appears to be getting a #1 push beginning on 6/29, and Tim McGraw co-hosts Country Countdown USA June 27-28, so it seems like Big Machine will be going for maximum spins for "Diamond Rings and Old Barstools" the same week as Carrie. If Easton doesn't push for #1 next week, there may be three #1 pushes going on in the same week.
It's looking like two of the four songs mentioned above will fall short of #1. I definitely don't see Tim McGraw coming anywhere near #1 given that his song has been lagging behind the competition for many weeks, so maybe "Diamond Rings and Old Barstools" will peak at #3. I'd expect Easton Corbin to be the most likely to succeed in a battle against Carrie for #1 simply given the high success rate of Universal's #1 pushes in the past compared to Sony's history of botched #1 pushes. If Easton pushes next week and locks up the Mediabase chart only, I can see the next two weeks at #1 on Billboard going to Blake. If Easton waits until his album release week to push, Blake will already be falling and I think Easton can get to #1 on both charts after "Sangria" gets its week. I really think Carrie would have been better off going for #1 next week instead of waiting around and giving Easton the opportunity to re-jump her with a boost of momentum during the release week of his new album.
As of right now, I'll predict Blake gets #1 next week and Easton holds out on his push until the week of June 29 and succeeds Blake at #1, with Carrie peaking at #2 and Tim peaking at #3.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2015 22:55:03 GMT -5
The next two weeks are going to be very tight in the top 5, as it seems there will be four songs gunning for #1 over this two-week span. Obviously Blake Shelton's "Sangria" is a lock for #1 on Billboard Country Airplay next weekend. Easton Corbin's 40-week old "Baby Be My Love Song" can't last much longer, and at the very latest I see Easton's team doing a #1 push week after next (June 30-July 5) to coincide with the 6/30 release of Easton's album, although I wouldn't be shocked to see them try for a Mediabase #1 next week. Carrie's "Little Toy Guns" appears to be getting a #1 push beginning on 6/29, and Tim McGraw co-hosts Country Countdown USA June 27-28, so it seems like Big Machine will be going for maximum spins for "Diamond Rings and Old Barstools" the same week as Carrie. If Easton doesn't push for #1 next week, there may be three #1 pushes going on in the same week. It's looking like two of the four songs mentioned above will fall short of #1. I definitely don't see Tim McGraw coming anywhere near #1 given that his song has been lagging behind the competition for many weeks, so maybe "Diamond Rings and Old Barstools" will peak at #3. I'd expect Easton Corbin to be the most likely to succeed in a battle against Carrie for #1 simply given the high success rate of Universal's #1 pushes in the past compared to Sony's history of botched #1 pushes. If Easton pushes next week and locks up the Mediabase chart only, I can see the next two weeks at #1 on Billboard going to Blake. If Easton waits until his album release week to push, Blake will already be falling and I think Easton can get to #1 on both charts after "Sangria" gets its week. I really think Carrie would have been better off going for #1 next week instead of waiting around and giving Easton the opportunity to re-jump her with a boost of momentum during the release week of his new album. As of right now, I'll predict Blake gets #1 next week and Easton holds out on his push until the week of June 29 and succeeds Blake at #1, with Carrie peaking at #2 and Tim peaking at #3. I've been saying for a long time now that I'll be stunned if Easton gets to #1, and I still feel the same way. His bullet has gone negative a couple of times in the last few days. There's no way that song can last another 2+ weeks. Carrie has a much better chance than Easton does. Sony may have botched some #1 'pushes' lately but that doesn't mean they'll automatically lose to UMG here. I guess we'll have to wait and see :)
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Libra
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Post by Libra on Jun 19, 2015 18:48:34 GMT -5
I keep thinking that Easton is really in fact not out of the race until he goes full-on negative, but that's probably the especially cynical part of me is thinking that if his label is really hell-bent on getting him there, then they'll get him there, literally everything else be damned.
Having said this, though, Tim had a spectacular update today - if he ever passes Easton, then Easton is almost certainly cooked, based on how he's been plodding forward lately.
I...almost want to say this scenario (Tim passing Easton) would be better for Carrie? If only because I'm not sure I could imagine a scenario in which the #1 train of succession (on MB, anyway) would be Kelsea, then Blake, then Tim.
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Marv
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Post by Marv on Jun 19, 2015 19:20:22 GMT -5
Any SERIOUS push to get this to #1 won't begin before June 28th after Blake hits #1 and Kelsea loses well over 2,000 spins next week and the week after.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Jun 19, 2015 20:23:29 GMT -5
I predict come Monday, Kelsea is going to fall hard. Like -1500 spins or more. Blake will take over by Wednesday probably. On the 29th, LTG is gonna need to be pushed hard, and I mean hard. Easton, honestly I think is out of gas, out of time. His song is twice as old as Carries and Carrie is currently ahead. I see it going:
June 22nd-Kelsea June 29th-Blake July 6th-Carrie
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Post by josephmorgan on Jun 20, 2015 16:20:10 GMT -5
I just realized this, but if "LTG" goes to the top of the airplay charts on the July 4th weekend, it will come exactly ten years after "Inside Your Heaven" went to #1 on the Hot 100.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Jun 20, 2015 16:25:17 GMT -5
I just realized this, but if "LTG" goes to the top of the airplay charts on the July 4th weekend, it will come exactly ten years after "Inside Your Heaven" went to #1 on the Hot 100. While interrupting the reign of the decade's biggest hit by Mariah Carey, We Belong Together.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Jun 21, 2015 10:16:39 GMT -5
Things are looking up. She is pulling away from Easton on MB. She's about 2 million AI ahead. She needs to continue to gradually increase until next Sunday then the push will begin
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tigers09
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Post by tigers09 on Jun 22, 2015 14:45:43 GMT -5
lets go!!
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Jun 22, 2015 18:13:47 GMT -5
Carrie's shot at #1 looks great at this point. It was a good move by Sony not to challenge Kelsea or Blake. Sangria is so far looking to spend a week at the top and I fully expect LTG to take over by next weekend. Time for this to hit #1 and move on to the lead single from Album 5.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2015 5:10:57 GMT -5
I think the tweet from Arista West Coat promo rep Lauren Thomas, suggesting the push for this would occur next week, may have been misleading. The tweet said "PUSH 6/29," which could perhaps imply that they label is pushing for the #1 on 6/29 (as in, having Carrie be #1 on the charts released 6/29). I previously predicted Carrie would push for a Mediabase #1 this week. I found it strange that Arista would delay the #1 push until next week when they had a pretty clear shot at #1 this week, as opposed to next week when Tim McGraw and Easton Corbin could be going for max spins.
However, it seems that Carrie may end up locking up Mediabase this weekend after all, as she's already at #1 on the Mediabase building airplay chart, meaning over the past two days "Little Toy Guns" has earned the most points on Mediabase. Another reason I think Carrie may be going for #1 this week is that she's received extra spins from Nash Nights Live, Cumulus' syndicated evening program, by performing an acoustic version of LTG over the weekend. Next week, Carrie will lose these spins, so if Arista is going for #1 next week instead of this week, those extra spins would be entirely pointless as they won't be factored into the final bullet.
Right now, things are looking like Carrie and Blake will split the charts this weekend, with Carrie taking the Mediabase #1 and Blake taking the Billboard #1. Warner would be more likely to play nice with Sony in a situation where "Sangria" gets multiple weeks at #1 on Billboard rather than having Blake peak sooner than Carrie and get fewer weeks in heavy rotation.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2015 5:54:33 GMT -5
You might be right, @daydrinker -- those are all valid points you brought up to support your case -- but I'm not convinced, mainly because 6/29 is a Monday. If they were going for the Mediabase #1 this weekend, wouldn't it have made more sense to say "Push 6/28" (Sunday) instead of "Push 6/29"?
In any case, I think I need to see a few more days' worth of data before I'll predict how this week will play out. Carrie is up 67 spins and 738k in this morning's update, while Blake increased by 45 spins and 601k. The published chart had Blake about 900 points ahead, so certainly Carrie is in the running, but I have to think that Sony will eventually remember that the Billboard airplay chart exists as well. I realize that the labels primarily care about Mediabase, but this would be Carrie's 4th single in a row where the label only focused on Mediabase, and I find that especially bizarre because no other labels are doing that with any other artists. It seems to only be happening with Carrie (other artists get MB-only #1's, but they don't have it where the label only focuses on MB for 4 singles in a row).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2015 8:27:06 GMT -5
Why did Mediabase become the main chart? I still like Billboard and I think that's the more important chart.
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trebor
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Post by trebor on Jun 23, 2015 8:44:05 GMT -5
Why did Mediabase become the main chart? I still like Billboard and I think that's the more important chart. How's that? Mediabase has historically grown to be the radio stations and trade charts alongside the Billboard (airplay) charts which still remain the official lists. Both are equally important with Billboard being the official source.
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carriekins
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Post by carriekins on Jun 23, 2015 8:50:30 GMT -5
Why did Mediabase become the main chart? I still like Billboard and I think that's the more important chart. I don't think it has, per se, become the main chart. However, when Billboard changed the methodology of Hot Country Songs a few years back, I think many avid chart watchers became somewhat disenchanted by Billboard, though many still regard the Country Airplay chart to be the "main" chart. It also helps Mediabase's case that their chart data is available daily (even if we don't quite know all the points info) so it's easier to track daily than Billboard (though obviously someone like jhomes87 does an incredible job with the conversion ratios).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2015 9:05:51 GMT -5
Why did Mediabase become the main chart? I still like Billboard and I think that's the more important chart. It's complicated. The labels count a song as a #1 whether it goes #1 on Mediabase or Billboard, but all the evidence of the last few years suggests that Mediabase is the preferred chart (to record labels). Part of it is because it's easier to get a #1 on Mediabase; their methodology is easier to manipulate when it comes to "last week pushes" for #1. It's easier to get points/spins on Mediabase than to manipulate Billboard's audience-based chart. Also, Mediabase data is obtained much more easily (their website publishes daily updates...Billboard doesn't), and I think that makes MB more appealing in today's digital world. Furthermore, all the countdown shows go by the Mediabase chart, supposedly because Mediabase doesn't charge as much for them to use their data as Billboard does. I also think that Billboard has self-marginalized itself a bit. Their creation of the new Hot Country Songs chart did them no favors with the country radio industry. Mediabase, on the other hand, is owned by iHeartMedia, so they are virtually guaranteed to always be popular with radio, particularly iHeartMedia (and IHM is the biggest radio corporation that there is). Then there's also Country Aircheck, a publication that is specific to the country radio industry. Billboard is a music magazine -- yes, they cover country music, but that's only a small part of what they do. Country Aircheck is Lon Helton's business/publication, and they are associated with all things country. There's no "Pop Aircheck" or "Rock Aircheck" or "Rap Aircheck". It's a country-specific thing that has really surged in popularity over the last 5+ years. From the start, Country Aircheck aligned itself with Mediabase instead of Billboard, and that's because Lon Helton had always been a Mediabase guy rather than a Billboard guy. Prior to Country Aircheck (and prior to Country Countdown USA, the show that Lon hosts), Lon was the country editor for Radio & Records. When he went to CC-USA, they used the R&R chart, and R&R eventually started using Mediabase data instead of their own ( sabre14 probably has more details about this)...and thus, it made sense for Country Aircheck to publish the Mediabase chart rather than the Billboard one. In short, the above paragraphs state just a few of the reasons why I think the labels focus more on Mediabase. Lon Helton has really spearheaded the shift, in my opinion. If Billboard wants to become a bit more relevant to the country radio industry again, I think they need to get a major countdown to use their chart, and it would also be a good idea to create a Billboard trade publication that is exclusively country. I know they publish the Billboard Country Update on Mondays and Thursdays, but it's not enough. Mediabase has historically grown to be the radio stations and trade charts alongside the Billboard (airplay) charts which still remain the official lists. Both are equally important with Billboard being the official source. I'm not quite sure what you mean by this. Mediabase and Billboard are separate companies, but both of them are official. Mediabase is more directly associated with radio (because it's owned by iHeartMedia) whereas Billboard is a magazine (they use Nielsen BDS data to publish all of their charts), but again, both of them are official sources.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2015 9:38:55 GMT -5
Thank you all for the explanations. I guess I don't like Mediabase, because it's easier to manipulate. Records seem to come from the Billboard chart and that's why I follow it. I understand why Billboard has lost credibility with the stupid HCS chart, but the Airplay chart is exactly the same, so whatever.
The availability of Mediabase is a plus yes, but it has to be the manipulation that bothers me, because correct me if I'm wrong, but you only have to be #1 on Sunday to claim the top right? Like there could be a song at #1 from Monday to Saturday and if another takes the top on Sunday, the Sunday song is #1for the week, right? That annoys me.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2015 9:47:14 GMT -5
The availability of Mediabase is a plus yes, but it has to be the manipulation that bothers me, because correct me if I'm wrong, but you only have to be #1 on Sunday to claim the top right? Like there could be a song at #1 from Monday to Saturday and if another takes the top on Sunday, the Sunday song is #1for the week, right? That annoys me. Well, it's the same for Billboard, though, it's just that we don't see daily Billboard updates. A song has to be #1 at the end of a tracking week for it to be a #1 song. Mediabase's tracking week is Sunday through Saturday, and Billboard's is Monday through Sunday. So, for example, Song A could be #1 on the first 3 days of the Billboard week, but if Song B passes it on Thursday and holds on through the rest of the week, then Song B is that week's #1 song, not Song A. That's not what I'm talking about with Mediabase. When we refer to chart manipulation, we're basically referring to when a song slows down, or doesn't appear headed towards a certain peak (usually #1), but then all of the sudden it starts taking off because the label is doing whatever the hell it is that they do behind the scenes. And Mediabase's chart is easier to manipulate, because it's a points-based chart, not audience-based, and it's easier for the labels to get a bunch of spins/points than it is for them to get the big audience spins that are required to advance to higher positions on the Billboard chart.
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