onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on May 7, 2015 15:32:39 GMT -5
Little Toy Guns is at #13 this week. After Sam Hunt, Lee Brice, and the Zac Brown Band go recurrent, can this go as high as #10? I hope so.
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rsmatto
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Post by rsmatto on May 7, 2015 17:23:17 GMT -5
Little Toy Guns is at #13 this week. After Sam Hunt, Lee Brice, and the Zac Brown Band go recurrent, can this go as high as #10? I hope so. I think it'll go higher than that. But they really need a more memorable song from Carrie next time around.
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surfy
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Post by surfy on May 7, 2015 20:56:36 GMT -5
Agreed, I quickly forgot about this song, I mean... it's a good song and I like it, but I don't see myself revisiting this and find it one of her more forgettable singles.
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Post by tim on May 7, 2015 23:18:39 GMT -5
^Agreed. Carrie has really lost my attention span after these last two releases. Over produced and over sung. I've listened to this a few times and it's very much ho-hum and forgettable. This song really doesn't strike me as top five material but alas I'm sure it'll flirt with the ever rotating number one's we have now.
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on May 8, 2015 9:00:41 GMT -5
A recognizable song relies a lot on promo. (DO NOT SAY THE VIDEO IS PROMO IM NOT DIVING INTO THAT MESS ANYMORE.) This has clearly done just fine without it, but a live performance needs to happen soon.
Disagreed on this being forgettable, though, especially when compared to what else is on the radio and how most of it sounds the same.
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surfy
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Post by surfy on May 8, 2015 9:09:44 GMT -5
A recognizable song relies a lot on promo. (DO NOT SAY THE VIDEO IS PROMO IM NOT DIVING INTO THAT MESS ANYMORE.) This has clearly done just fine without it, but a live performance needs to happen soon. Disagreed on this being forgettable, though, especially when compared to what else is on the radio and how most of it sounds the same. This is one of my favorite country songs atm, but I meant more in terms of Carrie singles that I find it forgettable. But I would love for her to do more promo for this, she would slay this live!
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2015 11:16:15 GMT -5
Little Toy Guns is at #13 this week. After Sam Hunt, Lee Brice, and the Zac Brown Band go recurrent, can this go as high as #10? I hope so. She definitely won't be any lower than #10. I'd say it's looking likely that she'll pass Easton Corbin, and maybe she can pass Tim McGraw as well, although that race is going to be close. LTG is at #8 on Mediabase right now, and I think it'll finish at #8 or #9 on Monday's Billboard, depending on whether or not Tim stays ahead. It's probably close to 50-50 as to whether she'll finish at #8 or #9 on Monday's BB.
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Post by brinkeronline on May 9, 2015 22:00:10 GMT -5
As my first post on Pulse (moved here since carriefans.com was hacked I guess), I want to say this is one of my favorite Carrie songs ever. It's impressive how she avoids trends (aka you always know when it's a Carrie song) and consistently improves her artistry.
I see "Little Toy Guns" hitting #1 on BB/Mediabase either 4th of July weekend or the weekend before. I think it depends on if Blake doesn't slow down and passes her AND if Thousand Horses' "Smoke" can get a #1. If Blake slows down enough and if "Smoke" misses out, it could be earlier. Hoping Sony doesn't let LTG miss out like "Something In The Water" did, especially since LTG isn't selling like SITW did to get Hot Country Songs #1.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on May 10, 2015 14:40:20 GMT -5
As my first post on Pulse (moved here since carriefans.com was hacked I guess), I want to say this is one of my favorite Carrie songs ever. It's impressive how she avoids trends (aka you always know when it's a Carrie song) and consistently improves her artistry. I see "Little Toy Guns" hitting #1 on BB/Mediabase either 4th of July weekend or the weekend before. I think it depends on if Blake doesn't slow down and passes her AND if Thousand Horses' "Smoke" can get a #1. If Blake slows down enough and if "Smoke" misses out, it could be earlier. Hoping Sony doesn't let LTG miss out like "Something In The Water" did, especially since LTG isn't selling like SITW did to get Hot Country Songs #1. First, welcome to Pulse Music Board, brinkeronline. Second, I do see Smoke hitting #1. Big Machine just got their 'new' act, the Zac Brown Band to #1 so I do forecast a chart topper for A Thousand Horses. Arista better not mess getting Little Toy Guns to the top like they did for Something In The Water. Of course, Blake Shelton will be in the mix and it would depend on Warner Bros. how long they want Sangria at the top.
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Post by Deleted on May 10, 2015 23:12:37 GMT -5
onebuffalo, Big Machine is not involved in working Zac Brown Band's singles to radio at all. They are only affiliated with ZBB for marketing, while the Southern Ground promotion team that has worked ZBB's past several singles to radio is still 100% responsible for getting the music up the airplay charts. brinkeronline, you can access the Carrie Fans board through this link.
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rsmatto
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Post by rsmatto on May 11, 2015 10:19:22 GMT -5
onebuffalo, Big Machine is not involved in working Zac Brown Band's singles to radio at all. They are only affiliated with ZBB for marketing and distribution, while the Southern Ground promotion team that has worked ZBB's past several singles to radio is still 100% responsible for getting the music up the airplay charts. brinkeronline, you can access the Carrie Fans board through this link. ZBB's affiliation with BMLG is for marketing only. The distribution of their albums is via Republic (NOT Republic Nashville) and Republic has supported "Heavy Is The Head" at rock radio and will promote any pop singles (if any).
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on May 13, 2015 9:47:12 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on May 14, 2015 7:14:09 GMT -5
Goes up a spot this week to #69 on the Hot 100.
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ILLUSION
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Post by ILLUSION on May 19, 2015 11:23:12 GMT -5
Very interested to see how this is going to fare from this point forward. It had the 2nd smallest gain in the Top 10 today and there are some songs come up quickly behind it. Maybe a Top 5 peak?
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on May 19, 2015 13:03:32 GMT -5
Very interested to see how this is going to fare from this point forward. It had the 2nd smallest gain in the Top 10 today and there are some songs come up quickly behind it. Maybe a Top 5 peak? She just got confirmed for a CMT Music Awards performance on June 10 (so three weeks from tomorrow), and since it's being billed as her "return performance" (literally, that was the headline on Rolling Stone this morning -- didn't even name the rest of the people also confirmed to perform), I'm thinking the hype will easily be built into the final run of this song. I'm sure it'll continue her Top 2 3 streak (*crosses self once more for SITW's fate*). It's still posting gains. The song's televised live performance will undoubtedly help, as well as a possible win or two on the show.
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Post by Deleted on May 19, 2015 13:48:14 GMT -5
I'm hopeful this will do well but I don't know Blake's song just passed Kelsea Tim is gonna get passed for sure and who knows how much longer Easton can hold Blake behind. Meanwhile at the top Billy will take a week A Thousand Horses are in the same boat FGL will get 2 and Kenny could also get week so that's a total of 5 weeks can Easton and Carrie hold off Blake and that's a question I can't wait to see what happens
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Post by Deleted on May 19, 2015 21:14:40 GMT -5
I think this one will hit #1 on both Billboard and Mediabase. A Thousand Horses, Florida Georgia Line, and even Kenny Chesney are far enough ahead that they'll be on their way down by the time LTG is ready to peak in airplay. I don't see Easton Corbin or Kelsea Ballerini as threats; if either one of them makes it to #1, it'll most likely be after Carrie.
The only 'threat', then, is probably Blake's "Sangria", but I don't see why he and Carrie can't both hit #1. Maybe LTG gets there before or after Blake...but either way I think it'll get there.
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Kanenrá:ke
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Post by Kanenrá:ke on May 19, 2015 23:20:21 GMT -5
Yeah if anybody loses out on #1 of the top 11 I see it being Kenny or Easton, the rest seem too strong to die out before hand.
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on May 21, 2015 13:38:28 GMT -5
Article on front page of the BCU Midweek about this song's movement, as well as its creation. It was originally going to be called "Wooden Guns" until Carrie changed it, and we learn that she was the one who came up with the "Fighting at the drop of a faucet" line that we were all discussing back in the first couple pages of this thread.
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Post by Deleted on May 25, 2015 3:26:54 GMT -5
This is putting up really low numbers to be at #5 on presumably both charts. I'm not sure when the last time was that #5 on the charts was heard by only 71% of the listeners hearing the #1 song. 42 million audience on Mediabase is usually good for #10, #9, or #8, so this has still way more room to grow than a #5 song usually does before reaching #1. That said, the position could be misleading this week and Carrie needs a really strong conversion week before I'm convinced this is a future #1 song. The competition in the top 10 is really weak right now. Below Carrie is an old song that isn't selling from Easton Corbin, an old song from Kelsea Ballerini being pushed by a small indie label that's just gotten their first top 10, and a big hit from country radio's least competitive A-lister that will likely only spend one week at#1, so maybe LTG can get to #1. We'll see how the gains look next week.
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on May 25, 2015 16:16:52 GMT -5
I'm not concerned. With these next few weeks being billed as "Carrie's return" with the CMT Awards, tomorrow's all-but-confirmed CMA Fest LP Field performance slot, the Fest performance itself, and her Opry return, public interest will grow for this song tremendously. The song's been sitting comfortably in the all-genre mid-80s for over a month or two now, so its sales have been steady and buoyed purely by radio (since there's been nothing else promoting it). Once these live performances come around and headlines are made, I think this song will see better updates and listener interest will increase.
That, and the fact that this song has had such a smooth trip to the Top 5 despite minimal promo is fantastic in its own right. *bows*
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on May 25, 2015 21:16:39 GMT -5
This is putting up really low numbers to be at #5 on presumably both charts. I'm not sure when the last time was that #5 on the charts was heard by only 71% of the listeners hearing the #1 song. 42 million audience on Mediabase is usually good for #10, #9, or #8, so this has still way more room to grow than a #5 song usually does before reaching #1. Your point is still going to stand, but I do think it is worth noting that the recent re-weighting of the charts (on 15 May) resulted in Mediabase audience impression totals going down by 2+ million for the top-10 songs (higher for the highest songs on the chart). So the comparison you are making is not completely apples to apples, but I do agree that "Little Toy Guns" has yet to reach the high rotation levels typical of a top-five song. Blake Shelton's "Sangria" has surprised me by not passing "Little Toy Guns" yet at Billboard (though it may have this past week), and I'll be interested to see which of the two songs gets those high rotation conversions first. I'm not concerned. With these next few weeks being billed as "Carrie's return" with the CMT Awards, tomorrow's all-but-confirmed CMA Fest LP Field performance slot, the Fest performance itself, and her Opry return, public interest will grow for this song tremendously. The song's been sitting comfortably in the all-genre mid-80s for over a month or two now, so its sales have been steady and buoyed purely by radio (since there's been nothing else promoting it). Once these live performances come around and headlines are made, I think this song will see better updates and listener interest will increase. While I agree that Carrie's return to performing is going to generate a lot of press (a tedious amount of it focused on how she looks), I do think it's worth remembering that the CMT Awards don't typically generate more than a few million viewers, Carrie's Opry performance will be broadcast on radio only (with limited audience via WSM Online & Sirius/XM's Willie's Roadhouse channel), and her likely LP Field performances won't be broadcast until ABC's CMA Fest special in August or September. Certainly if the posting of that Yahoo! acoustic performance can cause a two percent increase in "Little Toy Guns"' weekly sales, it's logical to expect that a live performance on the CMT Awards and press for Carrie's other performances will generate another spike. But it will still be up to Arista Nashville's radio promo team to connect the buzz from Carrie's return to the stage to airplay -- I don't think that country radio will make that move on its own. I was glad to read a little bit about how "Little Toy Guns" came to be, so thanks for posting that Billboard link, 14887fan. I'm not all that surprised to find that the concept of the song (particularly, the connection of "Little Toy Guns" to the mindset of a young girl dealing with fighting parents) was Carrie's, but it's nice to see that confirmed.
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ILLUSION
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Post by ILLUSION on May 27, 2015 9:29:55 GMT -5
-47 spins today, -0.306 audience. Was there a panel change? Only other song that lost spins today was Billy Currington's song at #1.
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2015 9:36:41 GMT -5
-47 spins today, -0.306 audience. Was there a panel change? Only other song that lost spins today was Billy Currington's song at #1. Maybe I it's backing off so Blake Shelton can start passing her Easton and Kelsea. I don't think Carrie's label wants to risk another Sure Be Cool If You Did and Two Black Cadillacs situation. I think if she let's Blake pass her and get his time at the top Carrie should to than get the top spot. Everything's fine.
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2015 10:27:21 GMT -5
-47 spins today, -0.306 audience. Was there a panel change? Only other song that lost spins today was Billy Currington's song at #1. No panel change. This just had a bad update on its own. Audience gains have been very small for a while, but today was the first day this also started to bleed spins. -47 spins today, -0.306 audience. Was there a panel change? Only other song that lost spins today was Billy Currington's song at #1. Maybe I it's backing off so Blake Shelton can start passing her Easton and Kelsea. I don't think Carrie's label wants to risk another Sure Be Cool If You Did and Two Black Cadillacs situation. I think if she let's Blake pass her and get his time at the top Carrie should to than get the top spot. Everything's fine. I think Arista would be thrilled to get even a Mediabase-only #1 here and I highly doubt they are backing off as you think they are, at all. There's no way they can afford to wait around with a song that's been having mediocre updates for a while for the sake of a Billboard #1 push. That kind of thinking is what caused "Lonely Eyes" to miss #1 altogether. These days, once you start to get passed in the top 10, you're usually only safe trying to push back ahead. Maybe this can wait out "Sangria" but Easton and Kelsea are also gaining on it. I do suspect this may be nearing the end of the road.
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2015 10:31:43 GMT -5
-47 spins today, -0.306 audience. Was there a panel change? Only other song that lost spins today was Billy Currington's song at #1. No panel change. This just had a bad update on its own. Audience gains have been very small for a while, but today was the first day this also started to bleed spins. Maybe I it's backing off so Blake Shelton can start passing her Easton and Kelsea. I don't think Carrie's label wants to risk another Sure Be Cool If You Did and Two Black Cadillacs situation. I think if she let's Blake pass her and get his time at the top Carrie should to than get the top spot. Everything's fine. I think Arista would be thrilled to get even a Mediabase-only #1 here and I highly doubt they are backing off as you think they are, at all. There's no way they can afford to wait around with a song that's been having mediocre updates for a while for the sake of a Billboard #1 push. That kind of thinking is what caused "Lonely Eyes" to miss #1 altogether. These days, once you start to get passed in the top 10, you're usually only safe trying to push back ahead. Maybe this can wait out "Sangria" but Easton and Kelsea are also gaining on it. I do suspect this may be nearing the end of the road. See I think Easton is running out of energy he only has so much. Kelsea is good bit behind. Look at the #1 runs it ll go Smoke then Sipping On Fire Wild Child Sangria for 2 weeks. I can see Carrie getting in after that as Easton will be running out of steam by then. Kelsea I don't see passing her. Maybe Kick The Dust Up just explodes out and gets in but I doubt that. :)
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2015 10:44:41 GMT -5
raylatch98, Carrie has been building at #8 on Mediabase all week, behind both Easton and Kelsea. I ignored this chart the past two days since the labels and programmers have likely been off for Memorial Day weekend, but we're now three days into the week and Carrie's not holding her own at all. I was frankly expecting Arista to get back to the phones yesterday and have Carrie post a nice 100+ spin gain this morning, which totally didn't happen. I don't quite see how the numbers suggest that Easton is running out of steam or peaking anytime soon; he's gained more audience on Billboard than Carrie last week. I'm quite certain Mercury will keep BBMLS going through Easton's June 30 album release date and achieve at least a top 5 peak, probably a Mediabase-only #1.
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2015 10:49:03 GMT -5
raylatch98, Carrie has been building at #8 on Mediabase all week, behind both Easton and Kelsea. I ignored this chart the past two days since the labels and programmers have likely been off for Memorial Day weekend, but we're now three days into the week and Carrie's not holding her own at all. I was frankly expecting Arista to get back to the phones yesterday and have Carrie post a nice 100+ spin gain this morning, which totally didn't happen. I don't quite see how the numbers suggest that Easton is running out of steam or peaking anytime soon; he's gained more audience on Billboard than Carrie last week. I'm quite certain Mercury will keep BBMLS going through Easton's June 30 album release date and achieve at least a top 5 peak, probably a Mediabase-only #1. But Easton song is so old and I can see a Trailer Hitch happening where he song drops before the album comes out. I think we will see a good update tomorrow for Carrie Underwood and if not you can say I Told You So. Easton song has been out for so long I can't see it lasting a ton longer.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on May 27, 2015 10:51:46 GMT -5
Only thing I could possibly see is that Blake Shelton passes Easton Corbin next week. I think Carrie Underwood will be safe for another week.
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2015 10:54:44 GMT -5
Only thing I could possibly see is that Blake Shelton passes Easton Corbin next week. I think Carrie Underwood will be safe for another week. No No No No >:(. Blake needs to make the pas now on both of them get to the top and get out Carrie needs to get passed now! If she stays ahead Blake will pull ahead the week when Carrie could get the #1. Blake make the pass now! . So mad about this situation.
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