rowdawg21
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Post by rowdawg21 on Jul 26, 2007 15:24:20 GMT -5
Is this where the projected BB audience is posted? Yep. It's showing up for me. Maybe someone else can confirm that it's showing up for them.
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msm444
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Post by msm444 on Jul 26, 2007 17:01:19 GMT -5
It's showing up for me. Maybe someone else can confirm that it's showing up for them. I can see the image fine.
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drock89
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Post by drock89 on Jul 29, 2007 13:20:04 GMT -5
Look at "Online" go.. cool. And is Taylor Swift making a run to #1??
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rowdawg21
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Post by rowdawg21 on Jul 30, 2007 20:12:52 GMT -5
Jon Solo posted this week's Billboard audiences for the top 5 songs over on Keith Urban's CMT board, and it seems like there could've been a small change in the Mediabase panel. The ratios for the top 5 songs are all right around .99-1, while in past weeks they've been between .96-.98.
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Post by northerncountry on Jul 31, 2007 9:02:22 GMT -5
Jon Solo posted this week's Billboard audiences for the top 5 songs over on Keith Urban's CMT board, and it seems like there could've been a small change in the Mediabase panel. The ratios for the top 5 songs are all right around .99-1, while in past weeks they've been between .96-.98. I think it has to do with the fact that the BB/R&R panel changed this week and added quite a few stations. For the chart period from July 23-29, they added WCTO in Allentown, WUBL and WYAY in Atlanta, KWLI in Denver, WPAW in Greensboro and KKGO in Los Angeles, while removing WCOS in Columbia, WWYZ in Hartford and WSSL in Greenville. That would account for the larger audience for the top 5 songs and it would mean that when they post this week's chart the LW numbers will be adjusted to show these stations as well, so I am interested in seeing if Kenny & Keith really did have as slow a week as MB suggested they had.
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rowdawg21
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Post by rowdawg21 on Jul 31, 2007 14:20:30 GMT -5
Jon Solo posted this week's Billboard audiences for the top 5 songs over on Keith Urban's CMT board, and it seems like there could've been a small change in the Mediabase panel. The ratios for the top 5 songs are all right around .99-1, while in past weeks they've been between .96-.98. I think it has to do with the fact that the BB/R&R panel changed this week and added quite a few stations. For the chart period from July 23-29, they added WCTO in Allentown, WUBL and WYAY in Atlanta, KWLI in Denver, WPAW in Greensboro and KKGO in Los Angeles, while removing WCOS in Columbia, WWYZ in Hartford and WSSL in Greenville. That would account for the larger audience for the top 5 songs and it would mean that when they post this week's chart the LW numbers will be adjusted to show these stations as well, so I am interested in seeing if Kenny & Keith really did have as slow a week as MB suggested they had. Thanks for the confirmation that the panel was changed.
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WamuFive
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Post by WamuFive on Jul 31, 2007 14:22:47 GMT -5
Jon Solo posted this week's Billboard audiences for the top 5 songs over on Keith Urban's CMT board, and it seems like there could've been a small change in the Mediabase panel. The ratios for the top 5 songs are all right around .99-1, while in past weeks they've been between .96-.98. I think it has to do with the fact that the BB/R&R panel changed this week and added quite a few stations. For the chart period from July 23-29, they added WCTO in Allentown, WUBL and WYAY in Atlanta, KWLI in Denver, WPAW in Greensboro and KKGO in Los Angeles, while removing WCOS in Columbia, WWYZ in Hartford and WSSL in Greenville. That would account for the larger audience for the top 5 songs and it would mean that when they post this week's chart the LW numbers will be adjusted to show these stations as well, so I am interested in seeing if Kenny & Keith really did have as slow a week as MB suggested they had. Well, this would depend on the trends of the added stations compared to the rest of the panel. If Mediabase maintained a constant panel, then the decrease in spins/audience is indicative of a true small decline based on their monitored stations. This will carry over to Billboard if the new stations followed a similar trend. However, if they played the bejeezus out of the songs, then it could change the Billboard numbers. I guess we'll find out soon enough.
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WamuFive
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Post by WamuFive on Jul 31, 2007 14:24:06 GMT -5
P.S. The chart prediction shows up fine on my home computer, but not on my work laptop. I guess my work laptop is really picky.
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drock89
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Post by drock89 on Aug 4, 2007 9:46:00 GMT -5
Reba/Kelly should pass Big & Rich... Jason Aldean will go recurrent... Tim & Faith will need to fight to not be passed by Rascal Flatts next week... Carrie is going to debut right outside the Top 20... and poor Faith has all but wrapped up her chart run with "Lost"...
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leilamaurizia
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Post by leilamaurizia on Aug 11, 2007 21:49:43 GMT -5
Thanks for sharing your chart, rowdawg21 and updating it daily! It's one of my regular go-to threads :)
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sbp17
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Post by sbp17 on Aug 11, 2007 22:38:13 GMT -5
Thanks for sharing your chart, rowdawg21 and updating it daily! It's one of my regular go-to threads :)
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Aug 12, 2007 8:34:01 GMT -5
How accurate/fair is country radio? It's all so weird. Taylor Swift made that big move to #1, and then all of a sudden Kenny's bullet increased again. Now Taylor has a big fall in spins. "Because Of You" had its bullet kind of shrink, and now it suddenly has a bullet of over 350 spins and could make a charge for #1. Rascal Flatts' new song was surging toward the top, but its bullet is now below 200. You know it will have another big surge, though, probably when it has a chance to hit #1.
Are the charts even fair, or are companies essentially planning out hits? It's all so disheartening.
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drock89
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Post by drock89 on Aug 12, 2007 8:46:23 GMT -5
No they are not essentially planning out the hits, but don't be deceived into thinking its a clean game. The reason that Billboard is based on audience is so that it costs labels more to buy spins to push songs to the top. It's called payola, and it did take a toll on country radio a few years back.
How accurate is country radio? Well I don't have the callouts for this week, but if you compare that to the Billboard chart, you'll see.
In my opinion, the most "accurate" chart is the album chart, because it is not toyed with, and it's going to show you exactly what the people want. Why would you spend money on an album you don't want?
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rowdawg21
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Post by rowdawg21 on Aug 12, 2007 8:55:18 GMT -5
Taylor never really "made a big move to #1." She might have closed the gap on Kenny to around 2 million or so at one point last week, but that's still a pretty big gap. The other thing to consider is that her song is 26 weeks old, while Kenny's is 10 weeks old.
As for the bullets for "Because Of You" and "Take Me There" - bullets can be misleading. If you really want to know how a song is doing, you have to keep track of its audience (which is why I started this thread). Both songs are gaining plenty of audience each week, and both songs are a contenders to hit #1.
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rowdawg21
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Post by rowdawg21 on Aug 12, 2007 8:56:40 GMT -5
Thanks for sharing your chart, rowdawg21 and updating it daily! It's one of my regular go-to threads :) Thanks for sharing your chart, rowdawg21 and updating it daily! It's one of my regular go-to threads :) You're welcome to both of you. It's nice to know that people are getting use out of it. :)
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sbp17
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Post by sbp17 on Aug 12, 2007 11:08:02 GMT -5
Here is Because Of You's daily spins for the life of the song so you can see it's trending along relatively steady.
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drock89
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Post by drock89 on Aug 17, 2007 10:08:34 GMT -5
Reba McEntire will have her first #1 in 4 years.
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dcowboy77
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Post by dcowboy77 on Aug 17, 2007 12:07:38 GMT -5
Reba McEntire will have her first #1 in 4 years. she was at #1 with "somebody" for week ending 8/07/04 so more like 3 years and a 1 month or 2.
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WamuFive
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Post by WamuFive on Aug 23, 2007 12:21:11 GMT -5
Rowdawg, I gotta question about your pojection. Your Projected BB audience looks pretty good. It seems that for the most part, your within about .500 +/- for each song. But how are you calculating the Projected BB Gain? For example, your Monday update shows "So Small" with a projected BB audience of 22.076 with a Projected Gain of 1.695. The actual audience was 20.729 (1.347 lower than your projection) but it had an increase of 4.584 in audience. The projected gain doesn't seem to be consistent. If "So Small" did in fact have an audience, of 22.076, as per your projection, that would have put her BB gain at 5.931, not 1.695.
Also, when I saw "If You're Reading This" with a projected BB loss, I was a bit disheartened. Then, the actual audience was a bit lower than your projected--yet it still had a 1.441 gain on the BB chart. So I'm just wondering, what audience figures are you using to compare your projected BB audience numbers to calculate the gain? I don't know, maybe it's the BB charts that are screwed up, lol. I just thought I'd point that out.
At any rate, I appreciate your effort to creating these charts each day. I don't mean to sound ungrateful or overly critical. You're doing a good job. It's probably just a careless mistake.
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on Aug 23, 2007 12:45:46 GMT -5
I could be wrong, but I think the Projected BB Gain column refers to what will happen on the next (yet unpublished) BB/R&R chart (in this case, to be published next Wednesday), based on what has transpired so far during the current BB/R&R week. The Monday update would therefore not be intended to match the chart that was published yesterday.
So by that logic, if you want to get a sense for what rowdawg21's 'final' projections for BB gains on next Wednesday's chart are, you would want to check out his Sunday entry for the Projected BB Gains column.
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rowdawg21
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Post by rowdawg21 on Aug 23, 2007 12:45:47 GMT -5
Rowdawg, I gotta question about your pojection. Your Projected BB audience looks pretty good. It seems that for the most part, your within about .500 +/- for each song. But how are you calculating the Projected BB Gain? For example, your Monday update shows "So Small" with a projected BB audience of 22.076 with a Projected Gain of 1.695. The actual audience was 20.729 (1.347 lower than your projection) but it had an increase of 4.584 in audience. The projected gain doesn't seem to be consistent. If "So Small" did in fact have an audience, of 22.076, as per your projection, that would have put her BB gain at 5.931, not 1.695. Also, when I saw "If You're Reading This" with a projected BB loss, I was a bit disheartened. Then, the actual audience was a bit lower than your projected--yet it still had a 1.441 gain on the BB chart. So I'm just wondering, what audience figures are you using to compare your projected BB audience numbers to calculate the gain? I don't know, maybe it's the BB charts that are screwed up, lol. I just thought I'd point that out. At any rate, I appreciate your effort to creating these charts each day. I don't mean to sound ungrateful or overly critical. You're doing a good job. It's probably just a careless mistake. The projected Billboard audiences get reset every Monday. I know the Monday Mediabase update shows Sunday airplay numbers (therefore the Monday update is the last day of the Billboard week), but since the Mediabase chart goes from Sunday to Saturday it makes it difficult to compare Mediabase with Billboard (which goes from Monday to Sunday). I thought about changing my chart a while ago to get rid of this confusion, but I was doing something wrong because the numbers weren't coming out correctly. Maybe I'll try to change it again later today. Anyway, the loss you saw for "If You're Reading This" was a loss from Sunday's Mediabase update to Monday's Mediabase update (it went from 20.618 to 20.421). The predicted audience for that week (column C - 21.34) and the Billboard audience from 2 weeks ago (column D - 19.304) shows that I expected the song to gain about 2 million AI (it actually gained about 1.4). I don't know how well I explained all this, so you can let me know if there's something you still don't understand. And you didn't sound ungrateful or overly critical at all - I'm always trying to find ways to improve the accuracy of this chart.
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rowdawg21
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Post by rowdawg21 on Aug 23, 2007 12:46:36 GMT -5
I could be wrong, but I think the Projected BB Gain column refers to what will happen on the next (yet unpublished) BB/R&R chart (in this case, to be published next Wednesday), based on what has transpired during the current BB/R&R week. The Monday update would therefore not be intended to match the chart that was published yesterday. So by that logic, if you want to get a sense for what rowdawg21's 'final' projections for BB gains on next Wednesday's chart are, you would want to check out his Sunday entry for the Projected BB Gains column. Yes, that's correct.
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WamuFive
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Post by WamuFive on Aug 23, 2007 12:59:04 GMT -5
I could be wrong, but I think the Projected BB Gain column refers to what will happen on the next (yet unpublished) BB/R&R chart (in this case, to be published next Wednesday), based on what has transpired so far during the current BB/R&R week. I was aware of this. I guess I just checked the update one day too late.
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WamuFive
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Post by WamuFive on Aug 23, 2007 13:03:39 GMT -5
The projected Billboard audiences get reset every Monday. I know the Monday Mediabase update shows Sunday airplay numbers (therefore the Monday update is the last day of the Billboard week), but since the Mediabase chart goes from Sunday to Saturday it makes it difficult to compare Mediabase with Billboard (which goes from Monday to Sunday). I thought about changing my chart a while ago to get rid of this confusion, but I was doing something wrong because the numbers weren't coming out correctly. Maybe I'll try to change it again later today. Anyway, the loss you saw for "If You're Reading This" was a loss from Sunday's Mediabase update to Monday's Mediabase update (it went from 20.618 to 20.421). The predicted audience for that week (column C - 21.34) and the Billboard audience from 2 weeks ago (column D - 19.304) shows that I expected the song to gain about 2 million AI (it actually gained about 1.4). I don't know how well I explained all this, so you can let me know if there's something you still don't understand. And you didn't sound ungrateful or overly critical at all - I'm always trying to find ways to improve the accuracy of this chart. After my second read though, it all made sense. I just figured that since you were trying to predict BB numbers, you aligned your projections to their chart week as opposed to Mediabase's chart week. So if you reset the BB audience's on Tuesday, would this align with the BB chart week? Is this what you did before and got your numbers wrong? Thanks for giving me the rundown.
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WamuFive
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Post by WamuFive on Aug 23, 2007 13:10:11 GMT -5
...but since the Mediabase chart goes from Sunday to Saturday it makes it difficult to compare Mediabase with Billboard (which goes from Monday to Sunday). Yeah, but I think we're saved since Mediabase publishes a rolling chart. All we have to do if we want to get a sense for the Billboard chart is check one day later--which would be the Monday update. Then, for all intents and purposes, we have a chart week that is comparable to Billboard's chart week. Then, I think the only obstacle is the discepancy in the reporting panel. But this is where your ratios come in--and that is where you earn the "big bucks" on your projections. ;) Don't you wish, lol.
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rowdawg21
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Post by rowdawg21 on Aug 23, 2007 14:26:04 GMT -5
The projected Billboard audiences get reset every Monday. I know the Monday Mediabase update shows Sunday airplay numbers (therefore the Monday update is the last day of the Billboard week), but since the Mediabase chart goes from Sunday to Saturday it makes it difficult to compare Mediabase with Billboard (which goes from Monday to Sunday). I thought about changing my chart a while ago to get rid of this confusion, but I was doing something wrong because the numbers weren't coming out correctly. Maybe I'll try to change it again later today. Anyway, the loss you saw for "If You're Reading This" was a loss from Sunday's Mediabase update to Monday's Mediabase update (it went from 20.618 to 20.421). The predicted audience for that week (column C - 21.34) and the Billboard audience from 2 weeks ago (column D - 19.304) shows that I expected the song to gain about 2 million AI (it actually gained about 1.4). I don't know how well I explained all this, so you can let me know if there's something you still don't understand. And you didn't sound ungrateful or overly critical at all - I'm always trying to find ways to improve the accuracy of this chart. After my second read though, it all made sense. I just figured that since you were trying to predict BB numbers, you aligned your projections to their chart week as opposed to Mediabase's chart week. So if you reset the BB audience's on Tuesday, would this align with the BB chart week? Is this what you did before and got your numbers wrong? Thanks for giving me the rundown. Yeah, that's what I did before and I got it wrong somehow. However, I just tried it again and I think I got it right. I'll probably be updating the chart in a bit.
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rowdawg21
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Post by rowdawg21 on Aug 23, 2007 15:09:55 GMT -5
...but since the Mediabase chart goes from Sunday to Saturday it makes it difficult to compare Mediabase with Billboard (which goes from Monday to Sunday). But this is where your ratios come in--and that is where you earn the "big bucks" on your projections. ;) Don't you wish, lol. haha...Maybe someday. :) I made the changes to the last 3 weeks of Mediabase audiences (changing the Sunday numbers to the Monday numbers), so the chart should be more accurate now.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 24, 2007 14:38:57 GMT -5
Anyone else shocked that Taylor Swift went from #3 to recurrent this week? I was looking at the chart and had to do a double take!
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rowdawg21
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Post by rowdawg21 on Aug 24, 2007 14:42:41 GMT -5
Anyone else shocked that Taylor Swift went from #3 to recurrent this week? I was looking at the chart and had to do a double take! Yeah, the thing that I don't understand is why a song goes recurrent when it falls below #10 in spins. The country chart is based on audience, so why use spins to partly determine if a song goes recurrent? Taylor would have been #8 this week if she didn't fall below #10 in spins.
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dcowboy77
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Post by dcowboy77 on Aug 25, 2007 10:34:51 GMT -5
Anyone else shocked that Taylor Swift went from #3 to recurrent this week? I was looking at the chart and had to do a double take! Yeah, the thing that I don't understand is why a song goes recurrent when it falls below #10 in spins. The country chart is based on audience, so why use spins to partly determine if a song goes recurrent? Taylor would have been #8 this week if she didn't fall below #10 in spins. someome should email the billboard chart guy wade jensen ? and see if they r thinking of changing it to just audience determining recurrents for the new chart year 2008....and if they arent tell them they should lol....whenever i email "these" people they nevr get back to me but u guys seem to have better luck !!
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