ant
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Post by ant on Feb 24, 2016 8:43:32 GMT -5
I agree with 43dudleyvillas that "Dirty Laundry" isn't really a murder song. I do however, think releasing both "Choctaw County Affair" and "Church Bells" this era might be a bit overkill, although CCA does sound different enough for the casual listeners not to criticize releasing both as singles. Personally, I would release "Church Bells" over "Choctaw County Affair". I feel like it sounds more "Carrie-like", and "Choctaw County Affair" could be very hit or miss with some listeners. I'm sure it would go #1 regardless, but I guess I just prefer "Church Bells" overall. And if I had my way, "Church Bells" would be single #3 with "Dirty Laundry" as single #4.
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rsmatto
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Post by rsmatto on Feb 24, 2016 9:16:42 GMT -5
Choctaw County Affair sounds so different from anything else that it's likely do really well sales wise. It grabs your attention.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2016 9:30:21 GMT -5
I saw her tonight in Philly and she put on such a great show. The effects and whole stage setup were fantastic. She and her band killed it! The two non-singles from Storyteller that got the best response were definitely "Dirty Laundry" and "Choctaw County Affair". I'd be so happy with either one of them coming third. I'm seeing her in a few weeks. Where were your seats? I have GA and trying to figure out my gameplan for where to stand. I had GA in Pittsburgh, an I recommend standing in a bend in the stage, if that makes sense. There's the middle main stage and secondary stages on each end. Go in between the main stage and a side stage, you see from far more than I imagine infront of one stage.
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Feb 24, 2016 12:30:06 GMT -5
I'm seeing her in a few weeks. Where were your seats? I have GA and trying to figure out my gameplan for where to stand. I had GA in Pittsburgh, an I recommend standing in a bend in the stage, if that makes sense. There's the middle main stage and secondary stages on each end. Go in between the main stage and a side stage, you see from far more than I imagine infront of one stage. This exactly! I was in the first level of balconies but from my view I can tell you the same. Find a corner where the main stage and catwalk stages meet. The stage has three main parts: center, left, and right. If you're all the way on one side (left or right), you'll only see her for about a third of the time. If you're in a corner where center stage meets the right or left, you'll get to see her 2/3rds of the time. Make sense? Also, try and find the side less band equipment is on, I can imagine that stuff gets in the way if you're on the ground.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2016 13:04:33 GMT -5
I had GA in Pittsburgh, an I recommend standing in a bend in the stage, if that makes sense. There's the middle main stage and secondary stages on each end. Go in between the main stage and a side stage, you see from far more than I imagine infront of one stage. This exactly! I was in the first level of balconies but from my view I can tell you the same. Find a corner where the main stage and catwalk stages meet. The stage has three main parts: center, left, and right. If you're all the way on one side (left or right), you'll only see her for about a third of the time. If you're in a corner where center stage meets the right or left, you'll get to see her 2/3rds of the time. Make sense? Also, try and find the side less band equipment is on, I can imagine that stuff gets in the way if you're on the ground. Exactly, me and my friend kind of just landed there. But that is what I would do again in a heartbeat.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Feb 24, 2016 13:26:11 GMT -5
Oh I'm so ready for next week. Carrie Underwood returns to the top of the billboard charts after nearly 4 years and gets her 14th #1 billboard hit! So glad SN just let this one be and let it do its thing.
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Post by jonathanalan on Feb 24, 2016 17:10:40 GMT -5
This exactly! I was in the first level of balconies but from my view I can tell you the same. Find a corner where the main stage and catwalk stages meet. The stage has three main parts: center, left, and right. If you're all the way on one side (left or right), you'll only see her for about a third of the time. If you're in a corner where center stage meets the right or left, you'll get to see her 2/3rds of the time. Make sense? Also, try and find the side less band equipment is on, I can imagine that stuff gets in the way if you're on the ground. Exactly, me and my friend kind of just landed there. But that is what I would do again in a heartbeat. Thanks guys!!!
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Post by countrygirl918 on Feb 24, 2016 18:12:14 GMT -5
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Feb 25, 2016 9:44:01 GMT -5
After today's update, how are things looking? Does BB still seem likely? Keith has been gaining, but Carrie's gains aren't small - so I imagine she still has a sizable lead. Had anyone taken the time to crunch some numbers?
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2016 10:01:59 GMT -5
After today's update, how are things looking? Does BB still seem likely? Keith has been gaining, but Carrie's gains aren't small - so I imagine she still has a sizable lead. Had anyone taken the time to crunch some numbers?I have :) ! Anyway, Carrie Underwood looks to have a 2 million in audience on Keith Urban with 4 days left of updates (Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday), Carrie Underwood is still looking to be the favorite for #1.
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Feb 25, 2016 11:10:27 GMT -5
When does she co-host that countdown?
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2016 11:18:18 GMT -5
When does she co-host that countdown? No word about it yet. But expect her to co-host the countdown the week after Randy Houser which for Carrie Underwood it'd be the weekend March 12th and 13th.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2016 12:33:44 GMT -5
After today's update, how are things looking? Does BB still seem likely? Keith has been gaining, but Carrie's gains aren't small - so I imagine she still has a sizable lead. Had anyone taken the time to crunch some numbers? At this point it's looking at least 95% likely that Carrie will finish this week at #1 on Billboard. She started the week a little more than 2.6 million ahead of Keith (on Billboard), and over the last 3 days (which correspond to the first 3 days of the new Billboard tracking week), Carrie has increased by a little more than 2 million on Mediabase, while Keith has gained 2.7 million. And so I'd estimate that Keith has maybe shaved off about 500k of Carrie's Billboard lead, which means that he's only got 4 days left to erase the remaining deficit of 2+ million. In short, Keith's pace isn't nearly strong enough for him to overtake Carrie on Billboard. And actually, I expect Capitol Nashville (Keith's label) to pull promotion for "Break On Me" at the end of the day Saturday once they secure the Mediabase #1 (I think Keith is about 95% likely to take the Mediabase #1). Remember, the Mediabase tracking week runs Sunday through Saturday, and the Billboard tracking week runs Monday through Sunday. And I think the push for Keith will end when the Mediabase tracking period ends, likely because his label knows they are too far behind Carrie on Billboard to have much of a chance of overtaking her there.
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Feb 25, 2016 14:49:45 GMT -5
Carrie is co-hosting the weekend of the 12th and 13th, so it looks like the three-week theory on BB is coming to fruition; the third week being when they push for Mediabase, too.
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Massikur2
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Post by Massikur2 on Feb 25, 2016 17:56:36 GMT -5
My Mediabase is showing "Heartbeat" at #1! Billboard is next!
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Feb 25, 2016 18:02:53 GMT -5
My Mediabase is showing "Heartbeat" at #1! Billboard is next! I know you've heard this before but it's not official until Sunday's afternoon update. I'm quite confident that Keith Urban will take Mediabase this week and Carrie Underwood will take Billboard Airplay.
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Post by brinkeronline on Feb 25, 2016 18:05:11 GMT -5
My Mediabase is showing "Heartbeat" at #1! Billboard is next! Showing #1 doesn't matter until official chart on Sunday for Mediabase and official chart for Billboard on Monday (I think...). Keith Urban is on track to pass Carrie in spins/points for Mediabase on Sunday, but Carrie should hold ahead for Billboard this week.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Feb 25, 2016 18:08:12 GMT -5
It'll be my pleasure putting Carrie Underwood back into the top 40 section of those artists with the most #1s. She will be at #40 (from #42) when Heartbeat tops the chart. She got kicked out of the top 40 when Jason Aldean collected his 14th #1 with Tonight Looks Good On You (damn that Aldean).
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Feb 26, 2016 7:58:24 GMT -5
So today's update sucks. *rolls eyes*. Looks like Keith is going for BB, too, and it looks like Carrie... Isn't. So annoyed right now.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 26, 2016 8:02:30 GMT -5
I think today's update was fine. Sure Carrie didn't move any but Keith Urban still has a pretty good ways to go in audience as the MB audience totals show Carrie Underwood on top so it's still fine.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Feb 26, 2016 13:20:05 GMT -5
The door is now open for KU to steal the #1 position on BB. I had the likelihood at 10% but now I'm raising that to 30%. There are enough days left, since she actually co-operated with KU's song overnight -- if she shows another loss tomorrow, or even a tiny gain, and he gains a full million again, I would raise his chances to 50% or even better.
I hate chart manipulation like this. He could have gotten his song to #1 in a much more straightforward way, and I don't generally like to see this kind of crazy push get rewarded. He's one of my favorite artists and she isn't in my top 500, but if I were a Carrie fan and the label let KU push on through on both charts, I would be furious. In fact, I don't have to be a Carrie fan to find this outrageous (and unnecessary, since he could have gotten to #1 in several different scenarios).
She's still heavily favored to make it to #1 on BB on the new chart. But for the first time all week, the door's open.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 26, 2016 14:36:09 GMT -5
So today's update sucks. *rolls eyes*. Looks like Keith is going for BB, too, and it looks like Carrie... Isn't. So annoyed right now. Take a deep breath and relax. Carrie is still the front-runner for Billboard this week, but even if they do let Keith ahead (which would make no sense to me, but it could happen), there's still next week and the week after. Randy Houser's team has already indicated that they'll be doing a "max spins" push beginning on Sunday, but "Heartbeat" should still be the favorite through the 13th/14th of March. I think today's update was fine. Sure Carrie didn't move any but Keith Urban still has a pretty good ways to go in audience as the MB audience totals show Carrie Underwood on top so it's still fine. The Mediabase audience totals are irrelevant here, because they don't correlate directly with the Billboard audience totals. As of this morning's update, Keith is still 2.1 million behind Carrie in Mediabase audience...but on Billboard he's almost certainly much closer. Keith started the week a little more than 2.6 million behind Carrie on Billboard, and he's out-gained her (in Mediabase audience) by 1.73 million over the last 4 days (since the start of the Billboard week). My guess is that Keith is somewhere between 1 and 1.3 million behind Carrie on Billboard right now, but of course we can't see any daily Billboard numbers. As Zazie said in his excellent post, the door is open. I'm not sure why Carrie's label would slow her down now, but we see this all the time with literally every label in Nashville. Everybody gets a turn at #1! I understand your frustrations, Carrie fans, but even if she loses out to Keith this week, there's still next week and the week after. Keith, on the other hand, will be on his way down by Tuesday morning already. It's now or never for him -- his label has made sure of that. I don't like how fabricated the airplay charts have become (basically just the top 5), but I'm powerless to change it. The best I can do is call out both radio and the labels and tell them that their manipulation of the charts is absurd. I don't understand why competing labels voluntarily scratch each other's backs...oh wait, I do, it's because the entire country music industry is one big unified family. I'm not saying that rival labels should hate each other, but some competition would be nice, not "oh, we'll step aside since it's your turn this week".
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Post by Deleted on Feb 26, 2016 14:52:03 GMT -5
jhomes87 , what I was getting at was that the MB audience totals still showed Carrie Underwood ahead. I know MB audience is technically irrelevant but the audience totals on Mediabase usually show who's ahead of who on Billboard(if the gap is big enough). I'm not saying that it's exclusively all gains are Bb translated to MB but I think the audience totals will be a good determination of who out of Keith and Carrie will hit the top. Not a deciding factor but if the gap in between the two songs is big enough either way (2 million in audience for MB at a minimum), I'd probably lean torwards which either one of them has the lead, anything in the middle then I'm officially guessing on who's at the top.
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Massikur2
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Post by Massikur2 on Feb 26, 2016 16:03:35 GMT -5
Sorry for the misinformation, friends! I failed to remember that pesky little detail. :)
This chart manipulation is really wearing thin, though. Not every song deserves to go to #1, regardless of artist or label. There are a lot of subpar tracks being pushed towards the top and receiving acclaim for such, but the quality just doesn't correlate with the honor. It's a disheartening reality.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 26, 2016 19:23:01 GMT -5
jhomes87 , what I was getting at was that the MB audience totals still showed Carrie Underwood ahead. I know MB audience is technically irrelevant but the audience totals on Mediabase usually show who's ahead of who on Billboard(if the gap is big enough). Right, but I'm saying that Keith might be a full million closer to Carrie on Billboard than he currently is on Mediabase, and if things keep trending this way (Carrie in a standstill, Keith gaining a lot), then Keith could still come out on top at Billboard even if he finishes 500k to 1 mil behind Carrie in Mediabase audience. So I wouldn't put too much stock into the total Mediabase audience numbers. One look tells me that Carrie was ahead of Keith by almost 4 million in MB audience on Monday, and yet the Billboard gap that same day was considerably lower. I think it'll come down to Sunday airplay: will Capitol stop the push after Saturday (after they've officially clinched the Mediabase #1), or will they keep it going through the day on Sunday in hopes of topping the Billboard chart, too? Keith is of course co-hosting Lon Helton's countdown, but that fact will be moot if Capitol stops pushing at the end of the day Saturday. If they want the Billboard #1, they need to keep pushing through the day on Sunday, and they also need Lon to give a 2nd spin of the studio version of "Break On Me" rather than have Keith play a live version of the song (well, it technically won't be live since CC-USA is taped, but I'm sure y'all see my meaning). My guess is that Sony likely knows what Capitol is aiming for, and if Capitol doesn't push on Sunday, then Sony will probably jump in and make sure that "Heartbeat" is #1 on Monday night's Billboard chart. But if Sony believes that Capitol is going to keep requesting max spins through Sunday evening, then perhaps they won't put up too much of a fight, and instead will focus on next week and the week after. I do think Randy Houser will get the Mediabase #1 on Sunday the 6th, but I think Carrie can hold off Houser on Billboard (for the BB chart that will come out on Monday, March 7). So even if Keith edges ahead of Carrie on this coming Monday's Billboard chart, "Heartbeat" would still likely get 2 weeks at #1 on Billboard (Monday the 7th and Monday the 14th) and would finally be the #1 song on Mediabase on Sunday the 13th (Urban and Houser will be on their way down by then).
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Feb 26, 2016 19:52:32 GMT -5
I agree that Houser is much more likely to settle for an MB-only #1 than Urban is -- I think KU's label was shooting for the usual double-#1 finish with their (still a little odd) big push. Also I have to think Carrie's label is not going to be focused on extreme acts of generosity to other songs, not if KU manages to poach the #1 position on BB as well as MB. I think they'll be in a bad mood, smiling on the surface maybe but underneath pretty annoyed.
I suppose that KU might stop pushing on Sunday morning and surrender the BB #1 to Underwood, but that move would make even less sense than the timing of the big push in the first place.
All in all, this does country airplay charts very little credit. But that didn't matter during the phony charts of the 1980's and it won't matter now either.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Feb 26, 2016 20:23:26 GMT -5
All in all, this does country airplay charts very little credit. But that didn't matter during the phony charts of the 1980's and it won't matter now either. I agree. I've been saying this for a while now but Country Radio and Country Music record labels do not care about so called "chart integrity." I guess when the entire system is corrupt in regards to this manipulation, there really is no integrity. The artists, labels and radio all conspire most of the time to make sure everybody gets a trophy. "You want the Mediabase/Billboard #1? Okay, as long as we get it next week." Or "You want the Mediabase #1? As long as we get the Billboard chart...Deal!" Everyone's helping each other out and when those press release make the rounds the day after the song officially hits #1, it doesn't mention the fact that "Break On Me" gained 210 spins and 1.0 million in audience on the Friday morning update of the week Keith's song went #1. Just a pat on the back and a big congratulations. Then radio deejays say to the average listener, "here's artist X and his #1 song." I actually still find most of the chart intriguing to watch but these #1 pushes inside the top 5 are brutal.
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on Feb 26, 2016 23:34:03 GMT -5
Stoney Creek's ad for Houser's "We Went" requested "max #1 spins" from "Sunday 2/28 to Sunday 3/6." Make of that what you will in terms of its interest in taking the Billboard #1 along with Mediabase next week.
If "Break on Me" does take the Billboard #1 this week, I think that it should further undermine the "purer chart" argument that at least a few of us (including me) have made as a reason to take the Billboard Country Airplay chart more seriously than Mediabase. The #1 debut of Garth's "More than a Memory" of course stands as the strongest argument against the Billboard Country Airplay chart's barriers to manipulation and we've seen a number of times where labels simply chose to take their feet off the gas on Sunday, missing a Billboard #1 by a few hundred thousand audience impressions not because it was too hard but because they just didn't care. Now, both the "Dibs" push last week and the "Break on Me" push this week suggest an emerging tactic of pre-scheduled half-week power rotation allocated for pushed songs wherein the singles' sole week in top rotation is the week they peak, because programmers are uninterested in sustaining those songs in power rotation for any longer. That's something to watch out for in terms of how it affects Billboard chart outcomes.
We have a female single naturally in the position to sustain three weeks at #1, a single that is, by all metrics (sales, streams and callout), the biggest hit of the three #1 contenders at the moment. "Heartbeat" is never going to be a favorite Carrie single for me, but after seeing Sony fight for and get multiple weeks at #1 for several of its male artists (at least one of them with an otherwise low impact song) while interfering with a slew of Carrie singles over the past few years and not managing a Billboard #1 for Cam's breakout hit, I would like to see Sony battle for and secure a multi-week #1 for Carrie here. I think that, among other things, it would make for a welcome show of growing female strength at the format. But I expect another heavy swing in "Break on Me"'s favor in tomorrow morning's update, with the weekend's contribution to be determined.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2016 0:47:23 GMT -5
Stoney Creek's ad for Houser's "We Went" requested "max #1 spins" from "Sunday 2/28 to Sunday 3/6." Make of that what you will in terms of its interest in taking the Billboard #1 along with Mediabase next week. I find the wording of Houser's ad to be particularly interesting. I seem to recall that in the past, BBR Music Group has used the words " through Sunday"** more than " to Sunday", the former which would certainly indicate a push through the end of the Billboard tracking period...the latter being a bit more ambiguous. Do they mean " through Sunday", or do they mean that they'll ease off the gas pedal sometime on Sunday? I guess we'll find out on the morning of March 7.. **I did a brief search to see if I could find any BBR Music Group ads that said "through Sunday" instead of "to Sunday", but unfortunately I was unable to find any such ads. I'm pretty sure I've seen BBR use the words "through Sunday" before, though... If Keith edges ahead of Carrie on Billboard this week, I can't imagine that Sony will allow BBR/Randy to do the same next week. I'm sure Sony is pretty confident that Carrie will be sitting on top of both charts 2 weeks from Sunday, but still, I don't like what I'm seeing. Even if Randy's team does intend to go for the Billboard #1, I would hope that Carrie puts up more of a fight next week. Like you, Dudley, I also take the Billboard chart more seriously (it's more credible to me, for several reasons) than Mediabase. It's worth pointing out that Garth's "More Than A Memory" had an extra day of Billboard airplay (and I know you know this), and given that it was such an unprecedented event, and was treated as an 'event' by radio, I personally don't feel that his #1 debut diminishes the legitimacy of the Billboard airplay chart. But these huge pushes lately certainly undermine both the Billboard and Mediabase charts, especially because the songs always collapse immediately after hitting #1. There was a panel/seminar-type thing at CRS this year where PD's and label executives from CHR, Rock, and other formats gave their take on country radio and the country radio charts. I particularly liked this little write-up that was in Country Aircheck's CRS Daily Buzz on February 10: Then in Country Aircheck Weekly on February 16, Country WCTK Providence PD Bob Walker said this: I was starting to think that we might be seeing a bit of a shift in which labels actually battle with each other rather than allow each other to take turns at #1, but now I'm not so sure. The year started off promising (on Billboard more so than on Mediabase) with Thomas Rhett wrapping up a 6-week run at #1, and then Luke Bryan spent 2 weeks at #1 (and he blocked UMG label-mate Sam Hunt in the process) and he fought hard for a 3rd week, which would have prevented Granger Smith and Wheelhouse Records from scoring their first #1 hit. Luke was unable to hold onto the top spot for a 3rd week, but the point is that Capitol very clearly tried for that 3rd week. Then I thought Granger had a good chance for a 2nd week since he was so far ahead of Kelsea, but Wheelhouse didn't even try. Instead, they let Black River steal the #1 with a huge push for "Dibs". Now we have Carrie in a prime position for a 3-week #1 stay on Billboard, and while it still could happen, there's no denying that Arista Nashville is cooperating with Capitol here and letting Keith Urban take the Mediabase #1. If Carrie finishes ahead on Billboard, then it's still very much possible that "Heartbeat" could spend the next 3 Mondays at #1 on Billboard (which I think makes Billboard look better than Mediabase, where the string of 1-week #1's is likely to continue). Still, as a chart-watcher, it's frustrating that these absurd pushes keep happening. Sometimes they happen for songs I like, and sometimes they happen for songs that I don't like, but it doesn't matter whether I like the song or not. You can't convince me that it's normal for Carrie and Randy to suddenly stop gaining and for Keith to gain 1 million audience impressions in a day. I don't like chart manipulation. I realize that, in the world of corporate country radio and the politics that dominate therein, we will always see deals made between radio and labels, but I'll never understand why competing labels would want to make deals with each other. It's especially frustrating that it continues to happen with country radio and country labels, given that it doesn't really happen in other radio formats.
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Feb 27, 2016 7:24:22 GMT -5
Today's update would certainly suggest, I think, that Keith is going for #1 on both charts, no?
So aggravating... Not only because Carrie could have three weeks, but also because of the clear manipulation; it makes chart watching boring. There's no excitement when #1 songs are predetermined...'
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