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Post by Mike is BAD on Mar 8, 2016 6:50:49 GMT -5
Early Prediction:
30. Piece by Piece
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NeRD
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Post by NeRD on Mar 8, 2016 9:56:14 GMT -5
I like how Work's growing airplay is balancing out its small decreases in sales. Not to mention the streams are still massive.
I'm looking for 10 weeks.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2016 10:03:18 GMT -5
^It won't be #1 for 10 weeks, it'll eventually be replaced by "7 Years", that song is growing huge numbers in every area, and it's already hit #1 in several other countries. 10 weeks is out of the question, especially for a song as bland as this one.
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Daniel Collins
4x Platinum Member
With every broken bone, I swear I lived
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Post by Daniel Collins on Mar 8, 2016 10:47:57 GMT -5
2016/03/08
*** = dropped or added a format
1. JUSTIN BIEBER - Love Yourself: 201.854 (-0.086)
2. TWENTY ONE PILOTS - Stressed Out: 183.863 (-1.140)
3. JUSTIN BIEBER - Sorry: 149.316 (-0.818) 4. RIHANNA - Work f/Drake: 140.861 (+3.217***)
5. FLO RIDA - My House: 133.926 (+2.162)
6. ADELE - Hello: 110.898 (-1.455)
7. G-EAZY - Me Myself And I f/Bebe Rexha: 109.640 (+1.302)
8. THE CHAINSMOKERS - Roses f/Rozes: 99.938 (-0.282)
9. SHAWN MENDES - Stitches: 99.006 (-0.664)
10. DNCE - Cake By The Ocean: 98.480 (+1.691)
11. SELENA GOMEZ - Hands To Myself: 94.699 (+1.665)
12. CHARLIE PUTH - One Call Away: 80.992 (+0.546)
13. ADELE - When We Were Young: 74.822 (-2.698)
14. ZAYN - Pillowtalk: 72.434 (+1.157) ▲
15. CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Heartbeat: 71.635 (+0.131) ▲
16. TAYLOR SWIFT - Wildest Dreams: 71.191 (-0.151) ▲
17. SELENA GOMEZ - Same Old Love: 70.277 (-1.711) ▼
18. RANDY HOUSER - We Went: 70.218 (-1.702) ▼
19. THE WEEKND - In The Night: 67.053 (-2.056)
20. MIKE POSNER - I Took A Pill In Ibiza: 66.663 (+1.609) ▲
21. ELLE KING - Ex's and Oh's: 65.874 (+0.159)
22. ZAC BROWN BAND - Beautiful Drug: 65.735 (+0.311)
23. ALESSIA CARA - Here: 65.084 (-1.025) ▼
24. RACHEL PLATTEN - Stand By You: 60.197 (-0.467)
25. BRETT ELDREDGE - Drunk On Your Love: 59.371 (+0.766)
26. COLE SWINDELL - You Should Be Here: 59.155 (+1.054)
27. MEGHAN TRAINOR - Like I'm Gonna Lose You: 55.323 (-1.136)
28. LUKAS GRAHAM - 7 Years: 53.975 (+1.440) ▲
29. FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE - Confession: 53.858 (+0.316) ▲
30. TORY LANEZ - Say It: 53.592 (-1.025)
31. KEITH URBAN - Break On Me: 53.287 (-2.924) ▼
32. CHASE BRYANT - Little Bit Of You: 53.000 (+0.085)
33. DAYA - Hide Away: 52.997 (-2.262) ▼
34. ELLIE GOULDING - Something In The Way You Move: 52.190 (-0.033) ▲
35. WALK THE MOON - Shut Up And Dance: 51.881 (-0.790) ▼
36. RASCAL FLATTS - I Like The Sound Of That: 50.093 (+0.541) ▲
37. THE WEEKND - The Hills: 50.000 (+0.482) ▲
38. THOMAS RHETT - Die A Happy Man: 49.727 (-0.431) ▼
39. CHRIS BROWN - Back To Sleep: 48.426 (-0.546)
40. ROBIN SCHULZ - Sugar f/Francesco Yates: 48.393 (-0.143)
41. DRAKE - Hotline Bling: 46.910 (-1.215***)
42. BRYSON TILLER - Don't: 46.098 (-0.296) ▲
43. YO GOTTI - Down In The DM: 45.910 (+0.086) ▲
44. GRANGER SMITH - Backroad Song: 45.695 (-1.273) ▼
45. LUKE BRYAN - Home Alone Tonight: 44.419 (-0.701) ▲
46. BEYONCE - Formation: 44.131 (+0.790) ▲
47. ELLIE GOULDING - On My Mind: 44.124 (-1.477) ▼
48. JEREMIH - Oui: 44.115 (-0.248) ▼
49. OLD DOMINION - Snapback: 43.945 (+0.900) ▲
50. JASON DERULO - Want To Want Me: 43.728 (-0.405) ▼
51. DRAKE & FUTURE - Jumpman: 43.319 (+0.300)
52. CHRIS STAPLETON - Nobody To Blame: 41.137 (-0.003)
53. MARK RONSON - Uptown Funk f/Bruno Mars: 40.953 (+0.122)
54. JAMES BAY - Let It Go: 39.469 (+0.708) ▲
55. MAREN MORRIS - My Church: 39.341 (+0.428) ▼
56. MAJOR LAZER - Lean On f/MØ & DJ Snake: 38.487 (+0.431) ▲
57. MEGHAN TRAINOR - NO: 38.189 (+6.351) ▲
58. COLDPLAY - Adventure Of A Lifetime: 37.763 (-1.016) ▼
59. CHRIS YOUNG & CASSADEE POPE - Think Of You: 37.316 (+0.970)
60. DUSTIN LYNCH - Mind Reader: 36.577 (-0.188) ▼
61. X AMBASSADORS - Renegades: 36.032 (-0.244) ▼
62. THE WEEKND - Can't Feel My Face: 35.889 (+0.184)
63. FETTY WAP - Again: 35.752 (-0.316) ▼
64. DJ SNAKE - Middle f/Bipolar Sunshine: 35.612 (+1.166)
65. LEE BRICE - That Don't Sound Like You: 35.348 (+0.007) ▼
66. ZARA LARSSON & MNEK - Never Forget You: 34.087 (+0.544) ▼
67. TAYLOR SWIFT - New Romantics: 33.828 (+1.224) ▲
68. DIERKS BENTLEY - Somewhere On A Beach: 33.597 (+0.401) ▼
69. R. CITY - Locked Away f/Adam Levine: 32.905 (-0.184) ▼
70. LOCASH - I Love This Life: 31.878 (-0.386) ▼
71. DJ LUKE NASTYY - Might Be: 31.349 (+0.276) ▲
72. RACHEL PLATTEN - Fight Song: 31.328 (-0.205) ▼
73. BROTHERS OSBORNE - Stay A Little Longer: 30.959 (-0.544) ▼
74. ED SHEERAN - Photograph: 30.543 (-0.355) ▲
75. TIM MCGRAW - Humble And Kind: 30.352 (+0.766) ▲
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MTSChart21
4x Platinum Member
"My Name's Blurryface"
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Post by MTSChart21 on Mar 8, 2016 10:54:45 GMT -5
2016/03/08 *** = dropped or added a format 1. JUSTIN BIEBER - Love Yourself: 201.854 (-0.086) 2. TWENTY ONE PILOTS - Stressed Out: 183.863 (-1.140) 3. JUSTIN BIEBER - Sorry: 149.316 (-0.818) 4. RIHANNA - Work f/Drake: 140.861 (+3.217***)
5. FLO RIDA - My House: 133.926 (+2.162) Look at #3 and #4  |
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MTSChart21
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Post by MTSChart21 on Mar 8, 2016 11:06:55 GMT -5
^It won't be #1 for 10 weeks, it'll eventually be replaced by "7 Years", that song is growing huge numbers in every area, and it's already hit #1 in several other countries. 10 weeks is out of the question, especially for a song as bland as this one. Which is bland? 7 Years or Work? |
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imbondz
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Post by imbondz on Mar 8, 2016 11:33:50 GMT -5
I'm anti-rihanna, but tried to give this song a chance.......ugh. torture.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2016 11:48:04 GMT -5
"Work" is the one I was referring to as bland.
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MTSChart21
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Post by MTSChart21 on Mar 8, 2016 12:26:21 GMT -5
"Work" is the one I was referring to as bland. Thank god |
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wjr15
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Post by wjr15 on Mar 8, 2016 12:44:47 GMT -5
Is it possible for NO to debut in the top 10? maybe even top 5?
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missgenericnickname
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Post by missgenericnickname on Mar 8, 2016 12:53:01 GMT -5
Is it possible for NO to debut in the top 10? maybe even top 5? If the sales stay up, that's what I'm predicting. Maybe higher than Piece By Piece since it started off with sales& airplay unlike PBP did with only sales |
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kanimal
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Post by kanimal on Mar 8, 2016 13:05:08 GMT -5
I'm not the best at forecasting these charts, but the sales seem like they might be too light for NO to go Top 10 (and certainly Top 5). Kworb has it selling roughly as well as Work From Home, but it doesn't have a music video or even a YouTube audio clip to boost streams. On the other hand, it does have Hot AC airplay that WFH didn't have.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2016 13:15:28 GMT -5
Yeah, and I'm not sure Hot AC radio is going to make up for lower sales, let alone no video streams. Piece by Piece had more than DOUBLE the sales of what is being predicted for NO, guys.
My vote is NO, a top 10 NO... haha. Based on the info we have so far, Top 20 is more likely at this point.
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badrobot
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Post by badrobot on Mar 8, 2016 17:03:03 GMT -5
Work has grown on me.
But, regardless, anyone's personal opinion of a song is not a good reason for a chart prediction. I would've balked at 10 weeks for Work... and then I saw those streaming figures. The song has a 2-to-1 margin over the #2 song. I don't think we can count anything out. I mean, broccoli is still pretty sure When We Were Young is about to take over at #1... ;)
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NeRD
Diamond Member
RIHANNA NAVY
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Posts: 15,297
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Post by NeRD on Mar 8, 2016 18:39:58 GMT -5
^It won't be #1 for 10 weeks, it'll eventually be replaced by "7 Years", that song is growing huge numbers in every area, and it's already hit #1 in several other countries. 10 weeks is out of the question, especially for a song as bland as this one. Okie dokie |
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missgenericnickname
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Being self depreciative while making cocktails& listening to kpop tbh
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Post by missgenericnickname on Mar 8, 2016 18:55:16 GMT -5
I did predict that Work would be #1 for 5 weeks(counting the 3 right now), but now I'm really not sure. I'm sort of tempted to say around 6-7 more weeks. 7 Years is the only possible #1 I can see& who knows how long that gap between it& Work is. The only thing I'm relying on for right now is high debuting songs to take away sales& streams
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Post by Mike is BAD on Mar 8, 2016 19:54:48 GMT -5
I think NO will debut at #16 this week and eventually peak at 4
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2016 3:52:54 GMT -5
^It won't be #1 for 10 weeks, it'll eventually be replaced by "7 Years", that song is growing huge numbers in every area, and it's already hit #1 in several other countries. 10 weeks is out of the question, especially for a song as bland as this one. I was thinking the same thing. "7 Years" is already ahead in sales, and it won't be long before it catches up in streams and/or airplay ("Work" has more than likely peaked in streaming and sales now, whereas "7 Years" still has room to grow). I like "Work", but definitely not enough to want to see it #1 for 10 weeks. It got 3 weeks at #1 already, and I hope for no more than 3-4 additional weeks before a new #1 replaces it permanently. I think "7 Years" is the most likely song to dethrone "Work", with "I Took A Pill In Ibiza" being the runner-up (though I don't think that one has too high chances). If "My House" keeps growing, it could peak at #2 behind "Work" but it definitely doesn't have enough traction to pass "Work". If "My House" peaks at #3 instead of #2, I'll be happy. Wouldn't want to see "Work" blocking "My House". I also hope "Stressed Out" doesn't pass "Love Yourself" soon because I would be upset to see "Work" be blocking "Stressed Out" either. Damn, I sure typed a lot... |
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Post by Mike is BAD on Mar 9, 2016 6:36:53 GMT -5
Early Predictions:
1. Work
2. Stressed Out*
3. Love Yourself*
4. My House
5. PILLOWTALK
6. Me, Myself, and I
7. 7 Years
8. Sorry**
9. Cake by the Ocean
10-11. ITAPII; Hello
*Very Close
**I seriously despise this song
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felipe
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Post by felipe on Mar 9, 2016 8:26:55 GMT -5
I guess people here have finally realized When we were young will not be another Adele smash hit. These past few weeks, people were going on and on about how it'd be the next #1 and I was like "What?? I know it's Adele, but have you guys actually listened to the song?" The songs on 25 are just not as catchy as the ones from 21 (except from Hello, of course), and Adele will probably not have another top 10 on the Hot 100 this era, but I know it'll still take time for some people to get used to the idea.
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Future Captain
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My Charts
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Post by Future Captain on Mar 9, 2016 8:32:25 GMT -5
I guess people here have finally realized When we were young will not be another Adele smash hit. These past few weeks, people were going on and on about how it'd be the next #1 and I was like "What?? I know it's Adele, but have you guys actually listened to the song?" The songs on 25 are just not as catchy as the ones from 21 (except from Hello, of course), and Adele will probably not have another top 10 on the Hot 100 this era, but I know it'll still take time for some people to get used to the idea. She still have Water Under The Bridge and All I Ask, that's all I will say. |
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Mar 9, 2016 9:01:03 GMT -5
Top 40 Mediabase Adds
Bold = went for adds
157 MEGHAN TRAINOR No
89 JUSTIN BIEBER Company
47 FIFTH HARMONY Work From Home
27 TAYLOR SWIFT New Romantics
23 LADY GAGA Til It Happens To You
22 HAILEE STEINFELD Rock Bottom f/DNCE
21 GWEN STEFANI Make Me Like You
15 LUKAS GRAHAM 7 Years
14 KELLY CLARKSON Piece By Piece
13 ALESSIA CARA Wild Things
13 HALSEY Colors
13 SIA Cheap Thrills
10 DJ SNAKE Middle f/Bipolar Sunshine
10 RUTH B Lost Boy
9 DILLON FRANCIS & KYGO Coming Over f/James Hersey
9 THE CHAINSMOKERS Don't Let Me Down f/Daya
8 JAMES BAY Let It Go
8 ZARA LARSSON & MNEK Never Forget You
7 NELLY Die A Happy Man
7 TORY LANEZ Say It
7 TRYON Somebody To Love Me
7 ZENDAYA Something New f/Chris Brown
6 GRACE You Don't Own Me f/G-Eazy
6 JEREMIH Oui
5 ANDRA DAY Rise Up
5 NATHAN SYKES Over And Over Again f/Ariana Grande
4 COLDPLAY Adventure Of A Lifetime
4 DAYA Sit Still, Look Pretty
4 HEATHER COLE Hearts Will Break
4 MAJOR LAZER Light It Up f/Nyla & Fuse ODG
4 YO GOTTI Down In The DM
3 ONE DIRECTION History
3 SHAWN HOOK Sound Of Your Heart
3 THAT POPPY Lowlife
3 THE WEEKND Acquainted
3 TROYE SIVAN Youth
2 ADDISON SCOTT I Came Alive
2 BEYONCE Formation
2 DUKE DUMONT Ocean Drive
2 FLUME Never Be Like You f/Kai
2 KYGO Stole The Show f/Parson James
2 LIL DICKY $ave Dat Money
2 PANIC! AT THE DISCO Victorious
1 AVICII Broken Arrows f/Zac Brown Band
1 BELLY Might Not f/The Weeknd
1 BRIGHT LIGHTS Runaway f/3lau
1 COLETTE CARR Play House
1 DEMI LOVATO Stone Cold
1 DESIIGNER Panda
1 DRAKE & FUTURE Jumpman
1 J SUTTA Forever
1 JESS GLYNNE Don't Be So Hard On Yourself
1 JONAS BLUE Fast Car
1 KID INK Promise f/Fetty Wap
1 LAURA MARANO Boom Box
1 LUKE NASTY Might Be
1 MANIKA How Can I Love
1 MIKE POSNER I Took A Pill In Ibiza
1 RACHEL PLATTEN Stand By You
1 ROBIN SCHULZ Sugar f/Francesco Yates
1 TONY VALOR To The Top f/Li Na
1 TY DOLLA $IGN Saved f/E-40
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velaxti
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Post by velaxti on Mar 9, 2016 9:01:41 GMT -5
I guess people here have finally realized When we were young will not be another Adele smash hit. These past few weeks, people were going on and on about how it'd be the next #1 and I was like "What?? I know it's Adele, but have you guys actually listened to the song?" The songs on 25 are just not as catchy as the ones from 21 (except from Hello, of course), and Adele will probably not have another top 10 on the Hot 100 this era, but I know it'll still take time for some people to get used to the idea. I think Adele can get another top 10 (maybe another #1) from this album, but WWWY wouldn't have gone to #1 even with a Grammys performance and a music video imo. It was doing worse in the charts with the same promotion as some songs like Stressed Out, My House, 7 Years, etc. As for 7 Years vs. Work, I've heard 7 Years once now and it's not as bad as I thought, but I probably won't listen to it ever again, I think Work is way better. For the charts it won't be long until 7 Years catches up in airplay and it's already higher in sales, but I think it's possible that it might never actually overtake Work in streaming! It could go #1 but Work has about double the chart points atm so it might take a month or so. And while I'm here, here's a song I can say with 99% certainty isn't going to #1 (I know some people will probably protest this until after it's peaked just because his past 3 singles went #1): Justin Bieber - Company |
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pnobelysk
Diamond Member
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Post by pnobelysk on Mar 9, 2016 9:06:20 GMT -5
I guess people here have finally realized When we were young will not be another Adele smash hit. These past few weeks, people were going on and on about how it'd be the next #1 and I was like "What?? I know it's Adele, but have you guys actually listened to the song?" The songs on 25 are just not as catchy as the ones from 21 (except from Hello, of course), and Adele will probably not have another top 10 on the Hot 100 this era, but I know it'll still take time for some people to get used to the idea. I think Adele could easily land another top 10 on the hot 100 but only if her team really wants It. I'm pretty sure when we were young woudlve gone too 10 if it was given a Grammy performance . If Adele performs the third single at the billboard music awards while its relatively high in AirPlay I'm sure it will go top 10 |
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MTSChart21
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Post by MTSChart21 on Mar 9, 2016 9:12:39 GMT -5
And while I'm here, here's a song I can say with 99% certainty isn't going to #1 (I know some people will probably protest this until after it's peaked just because his past 3 singles went #1): Justin Bieber - Company Oh trust me, that will not hit #1. Because of the following reasons 1. Because his last 3 singles went #1. People are probably getting sick of him now. 2. It doesn't really sound like a radio hit to me. 3. A good amount of people have already heard it on Justin Bieber's video for it. He released Love Yourself right after the album came out, so it was fairly new. |
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Deleted
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Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2016 9:17:10 GMT -5
Had they put out a WWWY video the week of the Grammys and had she performed it on the Grammys it would have at LEAST spent a week or so in the top 5. It's hard to argue with her video streaming power potential. If anyone honestly thinks WWWY wouldn't have had a BIG bump from the combination of those two things - then we'll have to agree to disagree. I recognize that the song ultimately didn't connect on its own as they may have hoped, but it also needed some support a la a video... and a moment - a moment that they never gave it during its main promotional period as a single. It was RIGHT THERE below smash hit level and they dropped the ball - intentionally or otherwise. I was a big champion for the song and made it clear for awhile that I believed they had a plan for it beyond, well, a post-Grammy performance on Ellen - but alas I was wrong. I'm getting crap for it ever since - it's all good. That's all I'll say about WWWY. But feel free to keep bringing it up.  Hello was a monster - and its success isn't going to be repeated again this era. That said, I think there are some hits left on 25. I just hope that the above scenario didn't kill some of her momentum. I trust that a great song will do well regardless, and she's got a few great ones left to release. Come what may. The mixing up songs to perform during the album promo has definitely worked for album sales - but I fear it has caused some issues with the singles aspect - but clearly her and her team are not pressed about this - nor should they be really. Just as a fan and a chart watcher, it would be nice to have a comparable showing on the singles chart for a such a huge album. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2016 9:24:47 GMT -5
As for Work and the prospects of the next #1 song... so many things could happen. All it takes is one solid performance to propel a top 10 hit to #1... so I could see that happening for a song like 7 Years right now. Then there are new releases by A-List acts that can happen any week with the right roll out.
Anything could happen. Work's monster streaming levels probably aren't going to last much longer.
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Future Captain
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Post by Future Captain on Mar 9, 2016 9:40:48 GMT -5
And while I'm here, here's a song I can say with 99% certainty isn't going to #1 (I know some people will probably protest this until after it's peaked just because his past 3 singles went #1): Justin Bieber - Company Oh trust me, that will not hit #1. Because of the following reasons 1. Because his last 3 singles went #1. People are probably getting sick of him now. 2. It doesn't really sound like a radio hit to me. 3. A good amount of people have already heard it on Justin Bieber's video for it. He released Love Yourself right after the album came out, so it was fairly new. People sick of an artist after three number-ones in a row? *Katy Perry laughs* Watch and learn, as there's nothing impossible if the label put enough effort to make a song a number-one hit :kii: |
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Mar 9, 2016 9:41:46 GMT -5
Re: "WWWY" I loved it when 25 was released, but it's like 70 degrees where I am now and "WWWY" just isn't the kind of song I want to hear now. Obviously a video and a Grammys performance would have helped, but so would have capitalizing on its momentum back in December/January. They waited too long to push it (though obviously "Hello" was still doing well). And again, it might just be me, but "WWWY" just doesn't fit the spring weather.
Isn't "Work" still gaining more in airplay than "7 Years?" It's way ahead in streaming. Is it even ahead in sales once all 'versions' of "Work" are accounted for? "7 Years" may get to #1, but I don't see where it will be anytime soon. I realize "Work" is terrible, but that doesn't mean people should underestimate it. It keeps doing better than people here seem to predict.
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MTSChart21
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Post by MTSChart21 on Mar 9, 2016 9:42:36 GMT -5
Oh trust me, that will not hit #1. Because of the following reasons 1. Because his last 3 singles went #1. People are probably getting sick of him now. 2. It doesn't really sound like a radio hit to me. 3. A good amount of people have already heard it on Justin Bieber's video for it. He released Love Yourself right after the album came out, so it was fairly new. People sick of an artist after three number-ones in a row? *Katy Perry laughs* Watch and learn, as there's nothing impossible if the label put enough effort to make a song a number-one hit :kii: Fine, you're right about that. But the other 2 still are valid |
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