Being a big Brad fan, this is disappointing, but I take comfort in the fact that he is still able to draw 15,000+ to outdoor concerts ...
Just a quick note re: outdoor amphitheater draw, since you've mentioned it recently in connection with both Brad and Darius -- what you see at the outdoor amphitheaters is a bit deceiving for a number of reasons. First, Brad plays outdoor amphitheaters as part of something called the
Country Megaticket, which is essentially a season pass that allows consumers to purchase discounted tickets for all of the country shows at the local Live Nation amphitheater. This tends to boost attendance well beyond what some of the individual headliners in the lineup might be able to draw. These outside shows also sell a lot of $15-$25 lawn seats, which is reflected in the average ticket price for those shows.
If you want a truer sense of what Brad is drawing on his own, you have to look at arenas. And the disparity between 2016 boxscores in arenas versus amphitheaters is pretty telling. Here is a sampling of 2016 Billboard Boxscore reports for Brad, first in amphitheaters, then in arenas.
Brad Paisley, Tyler Farr, Maddie & Tae XFINITY Theatre Hartford, Conn. June 25, 2016 $459,003 13,483 / 21,000 1 / 0 $79, $20 Live Nation
Brad Paisley, Tyler Farr, Maddie & Tae Isleta Amphitheater Albuquerque, N.M. June 3, 2016 $367,559 9,377 / 14,000 1 / 0 $79, $20 Live Nation
Brad Paisley, Tyler Farr, Maddie & Tae Irvine Meadows Amphitheatre Irvine, Calif. May 20, 2016 $599,446 14,567 / 15,000 1 / 0 $79, $20 Live Nation
Brad Paisley, Tyler Farr, Maddie & Tae Sleep Train Amphitheatre Chula Vista, Calif. May 21, 2016 $525,119 16,390 / 19,000 1 / 0 $79, $20 Live Nation
Brad Paisley, Tyler Farr, Maddie & Tae Toyota Amphitheatre Wheatland, Calif. May 19, 2016 $468,449 13,587 / 19,000 1 / 0 $69, $20 Live Nation
Average tickets sold at amphitheater shows: 13,481
Average ticket gross at amphitheater shows: $484,115
Average ticket price at amphitheater shows: $35.91
Brad Paisley, Eric Paslay Huntington Center Toledo, Ohio March 10, 2016 $399,350 7,649 / 7,649 1 / 1 $69, $49 AEG Live
Brad Paisley, Eric Paslay U.S. Cellular Coliseum Bloomington, Ill. March 12, 2016 $309,448 6,218 / 6,218 1 / 1 $69, $39 AEG Live
Brad Paisley, Eric Paslay Dow Event Center Arena Saginaw, Mich. March 11, 2016 $298,449 5,264 / 5,264 1 / 1 $69, $39 AEG Live/Eric Ryan Productions
Brad Paisley, Eric Paslay, Cam BOK Center Tulsa, Okla. Feb. 26, 2016 $368,474 7,371 / 10,000 1 / 0 $69, $39 AEG Live
Brad Paisley, Eric Paslay INTRUST Bank Arena Wichita, Kan. Feb. 25, 2016 $349,345 6,897 / 9,900 1 / 0 $69, $39 AEG Live
Brad Paisley, Eric Paslay, Cam JQH Arena Springfield, Mo. Feb. 27, 2016 $341,958 7,443 / 8,211 1 / 0 $59, $39 AEG Live
Brad Paisley, Eric Paslay, Cam Scotiabank Saddledome Calgary, Alberta Feb. 18, 2016 $576,858 11,324 / 11,324 1 / 1 $71.62, $35.45 AEG Live
Brad Paisley, Eric Paslay, Cam Rexall Place Edmonton, Alberta Feb. 19, 2016 $509,495 11,042 / 11,042 1 / 1 $72.32, $28.49 AEG Live
Brad Paisley, Eric Paslay, Cam Tacoma Dome Tacoma, Wash. Feb. 13, 2016 $502,337 10,112 / 10,112 1 / 1 $69, $49 AEG Live
Brad Paisley, Eric Paslay Rogers Arena Vancouver, British Columbia Feb. 14, 2016 $472,325 10,195 / 10,195 1 / 1 $90.23, $35.37 AEG Live
Brad Paisley, Eric Paslay, Cam Matthew Knight Arena Eugene, Ore. Feb. 11, 2016 $439,448 7,193 / 7,193 1 / 1 $59, $29 AEG Live
Brad Paisley, Eric Paslay, Cam Mohegan Sun Arena Uncasville, Conn. Jan. 31, 2016 $395,274 7,235 / 7,235 1 / 1 $69, $49 Live Nation
Brad Paisley, Eric Paslay, Cam Alliant Energy Center Madison, Wis. Feb. 5, 2016 $372,120 6,792 / 7,000 1 / 0 $69, $49 AEG Live
Brad Paisley, Eric Paslay, Cam Cross Insurance Center Bangor, Maine Jan. 29, 2016 $343,274 5,919 / 5,919 1 / 1 $79, $39 Waterfront Concerts
Brad Paisley, Eric Paslay, Cam La Crosse Center La Crosse, Wis. Feb. 4, 2016 $287,990 4,797 / 4,797 1 / 1 $69, $49 AEG Live
Brad Paisley, Eric Paslay, Cam War Memorial Arena at Oncenter Syracuse, N.Y. Jan. 30, 2016 $285,754 6,197 / 6,197 1 / 1 $49, $39 AEG Live
Brad Paisley, Eric Paslay, Cam Brandt Centre Regina, Saskatchewan Feb. 20, 2016 $276,061 5,770 / 5,770 1 / 1 $57.36, $35.58 AEG Live
Average tickets sold at arena shows: 7,495
Average ticket gross at arena shows: $383,998
Average ticket price at arena shows: $51.23
And if you drop out Brad's shows in Canada, where his touring audience has shown considerably more resilience, here are his U.S. arena numbers:
Average tickets sold at arena shows: 6,853
Average ticket gross at arena shows: $361,017
Average ticket price at arena shows: $52.68
So as you can see, Brad's standalone ticket draw, as reflected in his arena ticket sales, is considerably weaker than the outdoor amphitheater numbers suggest. The fact that average ticket prices are higher for Brad's arena shows shows the impact of super-cheap seats on attendance at the outside amphitheater shows -- that's why the average ticket gross at Brad's standalone shows is 75-80% that of the summer amphitheater shows even though arena show attendance is only 51-56% of the summer amphitheater shows.
Now, there are other factors to consider, of course -- summer shows naturally tend to have higher attendance because more people have the free time to attend concerts. Whether or not an artist has a current single/album can impact ticket sales, although I don't think that was an issue in this case ("Country Nation" peaked in February). Whether the concert dates are on the weekend or a weekday can also impact sales for obvious reasons (though I believe most of Brad's winter dates were weekend dates, just as his amphitheater dates were). And, of course, playing tertiary and secondary markets versus primary markets impacts the available population who might buy a ticket to see one's show -- Brad's arena dates are generally all in secondary and tertiary markets. But the bottom line here is that Brad's outdoor amphitheater draw really isn't indicative of his current draw as a touring artist. And while I don't have numbers from Darius' tour, I strongly suspect the same is true for him.
None of this is a knock on the quality of Brad's show. I'm actually a little surprised and saddened to see that he isn't converting to a stronger catalog-based draw. But I think
sabre14 absolutely nailed it in his comments about Brad's attempts to adapt to the current music climate while staying true to who he is. It seems to me that Brad spent the first ten years of the 2000s positioning himself as the bridge between traditional and contemporary country, but that is a market position that has become more difficult to sustain at the format now that country radio has more or less dispensed with traditional country over the past five years.