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Post by truemusicreviews on Jul 1, 2016 16:31:15 GMT -5
Don't count it for the competition...it's just a comparison. Alright, so the one from a couple days ago is the one that I'll count, correct? Yes. Thanks! :)
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85la
3x Platinum Member
Joined: July 2007
Posts: 3,695
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Post by 85la on Jul 1, 2016 19:47:39 GMT -5
I just realized that my formula is somewhat f**ked up. s**t. Why not just use Billboard's formula with your own estimates for each metric? You're basically spending time coming up with a formula that already exists. Ravi uses it every week. As do I for the year end prediction updates. When you say "Billboard's formula" do you mean the estimated formula we have come up with (but that estimate itself differs between members), because to my knowledge Billboard hasn't disclosed their formula?
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2016 19:51:48 GMT -5
^ Streaming /1200, Sales /9, Airplay /10000. While of course it can't be confirmed, it's been working without incident when using it to calculate Billboard-given estimates. At least for me. So I feel like there's some evidence to support it being fairly accurate at this point.
I'm curious what the other formulas are that you speak of. Do you use one?
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Post by truemusicreviews on Jul 1, 2016 21:41:24 GMT -5
^ Streaming /1200, Sales /9, Airplay /10000. While of course it can't be confirmed, it's been working without incident when using it to calculate Billboard-given estimates. At least for me. So I feel like there's some evidence to support it being fairly accurate at this point. I'm curious what the other formulas are that you speak of. Do you use one? Maximum sales points are 3,900, maximum radio points are 3,400 points, and maximum streaming points are 2,700.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2016 21:44:54 GMT -5
truemusicreviews Interesting. Where/how did you figure the max amounts? Are the max amounts the same for every week?
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Post by truemusicreviews on Jul 2, 2016 0:17:21 GMT -5
truemusicreviews Interesting. Where/how did you figure the max amounts? Are the max amounts the same for every week? Yes; they are constant. I just fudged around with the numbers until I got point systems that seemed right. This week, I tried to ensure that the top song in every category had 1,000-1,500 points in said category.
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85la
3x Platinum Member
Joined: July 2007
Posts: 3,695
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Post by 85la on Jul 2, 2016 14:02:42 GMT -5
^ Streaming /1200, Sales /9, Airplay /10000. While of course it can't be confirmed, it's been working without incident when using it to calculate Billboard-given estimates. At least for me. So I feel like there's some evidence to support it being fairly accurate at this point. I'm curious what the other formulas are that you speak of. Do you use one? As for the other formulas, I'm not sure exactly, but I just remember certain members, such as itsravi and DanielCollins, saying they might have used different formulas. I'm usually inclined to go with the formula you mentioned (or something close to it), cuz as you said, it does seem to be fairly accurate. I kind of feel it would be a fool's errand to come up with a more accurate formula of my own though, especially applying one ratio to all streams, because it still seems they probably weigh on-demand streams more than passive streams, and they rarely give both numbers for most songs, nor the weighing difference.
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Sherane Lamar
2x Platinum Member
Banned
Long live XXX
Joined: February 2016
Posts: 2,900
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Post by Sherane Lamar on Jul 3, 2016 15:42:41 GMT -5
I just didn't do it altogether. Ok. No need to count mine, but just for the heck of it, here's what my predictions WOULD have been:
1. One Dance 2. Can't Stop The Feeling 3. Panda 4. Don't Let Me Down 5. This Is What You Came For 6. Cheap Thrills 7. Don't Mind 8. Needed Me 9. Ride 10. Work From Home
Damn. I think I could have raised my average this week. Oh well.
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Post by Mike is BAD on Jul 3, 2016 18:28:08 GMT -5
I'm either getting -4, -6, or -8
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2016 18:30:35 GMT -5
should be some perfect picks this week we won't know until tuesday though because of the holiday tomorrow :(
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MTSChart21
4x Platinum Member
"My Name's Blurryface"
If I can't be close to you, I'll settle for the ghost of you
Joined: October 2015
Posts: 4,347
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Post by MTSChart21 on Jul 5, 2016 14:12:20 GMT -5
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Post by Mayman on Jul 5, 2016 15:53:33 GMT -5
Good job everyone!
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Post by truemusicreviews on Jul 5, 2016 16:37:01 GMT -5
On both of my charts, I was off by 4. Hm.
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Sherane Lamar
2x Platinum Member
Banned
Long live XXX
Joined: February 2016
Posts: 2,900
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Post by Sherane Lamar on Jul 5, 2016 17:49:23 GMT -5
And this will be a week of our systems of judging accuracy being the same, since EVERY person had the same (correct) 10 songs in the Top 10. It was a bad week for me to sit out because I missed out on a low average.
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Sherane Lamar
2x Platinum Member
Banned
Long live XXX
Joined: February 2016
Posts: 2,900
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Post by Sherane Lamar on Jul 5, 2016 17:56:39 GMT -5
You forgot about Will. He should have a -4 too. A .5 win.
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MTSChart21
4x Platinum Member
"My Name's Blurryface"
If I can't be close to you, I'll settle for the ghost of you
Joined: October 2015
Posts: 4,347
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Post by MTSChart21 on Jul 5, 2016 18:09:52 GMT -5
HOT 100 TOP 10 PREDICTION CONTEST ------------------------------------- OFFICIAL 07/16/2016 RESULTS You forgot about Will. He should have a -4 too. A .5 win. Thanks for telling me, I will fix it.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2016 11:22:27 GMT -5
Everyone is getting good at this.
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