rimetm
2x Platinum Member
Just a Good Ol' Chart Shmuck
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Post by rimetm on May 28, 2018 20:17:28 GMT -5
It's Memorial Day weekend, so the charts haven't received an initial reveal yet, but we're well underway the streaming and sales periods, and have begun the radio one, so here goes...
Streaming
Lucid Dreams is the new big thing, as it storms up all major formats. In addition, Apple and Spotify are loaded with tracks from A$AP Rocky and Pusha T, the latter of whom benefits from some sort of feud. Of course, I'd be remiss not to mention the new dominant elephant in the room: Drake's I'm Upset, which debuts atop Apple Music and is doing okay on YouTube along with the mostly-hiding-from-the-internet Duppy Freestyle.
Sales
In My Blood benefits from a discount to a strong sales week, but has gotten its thunder stolen by the new Drake single I'm Upset. Psycho rocks major gains from a discount as well. The only new release aside from Drake that might make a splash on the main chart is High Hopes, the next promo single from Panic at the Disco's latest project.
Radio
In a deflating radio environment, The Middle continues to lose its lead, but without a viable candidate for dethroning: amid a horde of songs losing audience faster than it, the first gainer is Psycho, which would need to make up about 25 million more audience to intercept and pass The Middle, which could take a month. Alone is still a song to watch out for as it continues healthy gains, and One Kiss becomes a contender for future Pop Radio leader, while I Like It begins revving up to reap the benefits of the new music video as the top gaining song currently not benefitting from a format addition/shift.
Hot 100 Predictions
If Nice for What isn't leading the 6/2 chart, it should return to the top for this one; This is America's only gaining on radio, and I'm Upset isn't on enough platforms to leverage a lead (and the one platform we do have stats for, sales, is rather weak, barely keeping a lead over In My Blood). Lucid Dreams should challenge for the top 30, No Tears Left to Cry should return to the top 5, and 3 or so tracks from both Pusha and Rocky should make the charts.
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Post by hunterquigley on May 28, 2018 20:51:19 GMT -5
If Psycho is on discount in the ITunes Store and continues itโs dominance over Nice for What in radio, could it finally overtake its number two peak and get to number one?
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Deleted
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Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 28, 2018 20:54:58 GMT -5
How many points does the #1 on iTunes get on the Hot 100 nowadays compared to radio and streaming? I hope they just get rid of it one day because itโs becoming so irrelevant.
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jenglisbe
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Posts: 34,509
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Post by jenglisbe on May 28, 2018 21:00:45 GMT -5
How many points does the #1 on iTunes get on the Hot 100 nowadays compared to radio and streaming? I hope they just get rid of it one day because itโs becoming so irrelevant. I doubt theyโll get rid of it, but naturally it will become almost non-existent as sales becomes less and less. I mean, i assume physical single sales still count, but not many songs have a physical single. |
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on May 28, 2018 21:15:51 GMT -5
Hot 100 PredictionsNo Tears Left to Cry should return to the top 5 Humm... #7 at best (I'm being extremely optimistic). Radio: +7% (May 27 vs. May 20) Spotify: +1% (May 25-27 vs. May 18-20) YouTube: -3% (May 25 vs. May 18) |
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Post by ๏ผณ๏ฝ๏ฝ๏ฝ๏ฝ๏ฝ๏ฝ๐ค๏ฝ๏ฝ on May 28, 2018 21:16:30 GMT -5
Digital number ones in this decade (non-debut songs)
May 26 2018 - This Is America (50k)
May 27 2017 - Despacito (104k)
June 4 2016 - Can't Stop The Feeling (204k)
May 30 2015 - See You Again (229k)
May 31 2014 - Problem (248k)
May 26 2013 - Can't Hold Us (241k)
May 26 2012 - Somebody That I Used To Know (321k)
May 28 2011 - Rolling In The Deep (353k)
June 5 2010 - OMG (236k)
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on May 28, 2018 21:18:22 GMT -5
How many points does the #1 on iTunes get on the Hot 100 nowadays compared to radio and streaming? I hope they just get rid of it one day because itโs becoming so irrelevant. Hot 100 dated as May 26 (aka last week): Sales #1: This Is America 50k (6,944 Hot 100 points) Radio #1: The Middle 118.2M (14,071 Hot 100 points) Streaming #1: This Is America 69.6M (46,252 Hot 100 points) |
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on May 28, 2018 21:23:13 GMT -5
If Psycho is on discount in the ITunes Store and continues itโs dominance over Nice for What in radio, could it finally overtake its number two peak and get to number one? It's going to be a close race again, but Nice For What is the early favorite. It's holding really well this week on Spotify (+0.04%). |
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rfucom
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Post by rfucom on May 29, 2018 4:31:37 GMT -5
I really reallly hope psycho will get this now.
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kcdawg13
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You Are Now Listening to 103.5 Dawn FM
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Post by kcdawg13 on May 29, 2018 4:41:34 GMT -5
I'm rooting for Psycho, it's leading sales and radio compared to Nice For What.
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rfucom
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Post by rfucom on May 29, 2018 7:04:30 GMT -5
I'm rooting for Psycho, it's leading sales and radio compared to Nice For What. Still neck to neck. Streaming will be the main factor. NFW lead by miles on spotify while psycho lead by miles on youtube. They are close on deezer and shazam. I dunno bout apple music because they not giving us the numbers. |
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ur local neighborhood dbender
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Post by ur local neighborhood dbender on May 29, 2018 7:15:14 GMT -5
I really hope TIA doesn't start crumbling to the ground. It is still a good song.
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kanfad
Gold Member
Enjoy your privileged life
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Post by kanfad on May 29, 2018 7:41:41 GMT -5
I'm rooting for Psycho, it's leading sales and radio compared to Nice For What. Still neck to neck. Streaming will be the main factor. NFW lead by miles on spotify while psycho lead by miles on youtube. They are close on deezer and shazam. I dunno bout apple music because they not giving us the numbers. That reminds me, why does shazaming a song seem to be so important to stans when its not relevant to the hot 100? |
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Post by hunterquigley on May 29, 2018 7:57:02 GMT -5
Pyshco is up to number two on iTunes and gaining in sales. It looks like Drakeโs โIโm Upsetโ disappeared off of ITunes. It was number one on ITunes last I checked and now it was 123. It really free fell down the charts.
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Post by Golden Bluebird on May 29, 2018 8:12:01 GMT -5
kworb.net/airadio/*** = Dropped or added a format Overall AI (Top 20) - 2018/05/291. (=) ZEDD/MAREN MORRIS/GREY - The Middle (160.256) (-0.245) 2. (=) CAMILA CABELLO - Never Be The Same (151.522) (+0.464) 3. (=) DRAKE - God's Plan (136.404) (-1.000) 4. (=) BEBE REXHA - Meant To Be f/F.G.L. (125.646) (-1.589) 5. (=) IMAGINE DRAGONS - Whatever It Takes (123.465) (-0.658) 6. (=) POST MALONE - Psycho f/Ty Dolla $ign (120.624) (+2.533) 7. (=) DRAKE - Nice For What (109.933) (-0.281) *** 8. (=) MAROON 5 - Wait (103.011) (+1.068) 9. (=) THE WEEKND & KENDRICK LAMAR - Pray For Me (94.658) (-1.923) 10. (=) ED SHEERAN - Perfect (91.034) (-1.160) 11. (=) SHAWN MENDES - In My Blood (85.763) (+0.335) 12. (=) BAZZI - Mine (85.050) (+0.835) 13. (=) ARIANA GRANDE - No Tears Left To Cry (84.109) (+1.539) 14. (+2) TAYLOR SWIFT - Delicate (78.957) (+2.576) 15. (=) DUA LIPA - New Rules (77.135) (-0.135) 16. (-2) MAX - Lights Down Low (76.775) (-0.678) 17. (=) LUKE COMBS - One Number Away (71.906) (+0.100) 18. (=) DARIUS RUCKER - For The First Time (69.575) (-1.667) 19. (+1) BRUNO MARS & CARDI B - Finesse (67.397) (+0.068) 20. (-1) BLOCBOY JB - Look Alive f/Drake (67.295) (-0.776) Outside the Top 20: 31. (+4) CHARLIE PUTH - Done For Me f/Kehlani (50.740) (+1.224) 54. (+4) CARDI B - I Like It (32.673) (+1.624) 62. (+3) SELENA GOMEZ - Back To You (30.108) (+1.343)
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on May 29, 2018 8:46:14 GMT -5
Why would they get rid of a form of measurement because itโs โirrelevantโ? Even if iTunes is only used by 30 people, 30 people are still buying music from it. The impact is super small but itโs still there. I swear some of the suggestions people come up with are ridiculous lmao
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NeRD
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Post by NeRD on May 29, 2018 8:51:06 GMT -5
Right. That's just like saying they should remove radio from the equation because no one listens to it anymore.
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NeRD
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Post by NeRD on May 29, 2018 8:51:40 GMT -5
Pyshco is up to number two on iTunes and gaining in sales. It looks like Drakeโs โIโm Upsetโ disappeared off of ITunes. It was number one on ITunes last I checked and now it was 123. It really free fell down the charts. Likely just deleted the single version. |
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on May 29, 2018 8:51:57 GMT -5
^No Tears Left to Cry and Delicate look likely to reach the top 10 of Radio Songs next week.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on May 29, 2018 8:59:44 GMT -5
Why would they get rid of a form of measurement because itโs โirrelevantโ? Even if iTunes is only used by 30 people, 30 people are still buying music from it. The impact is super small but itโs still there. I swear some of the suggestions people come up with are ridiculous lmao People should be reminded that the Hot 100 formula wasn't rebalanced the Hot 100 formulla this year as they had the last two years, which has only accentuated the irrelevance of digital sales. |
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rimetm
2x Platinum Member
Just a Good Ol' Chart Shmuck
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Post by rimetm on May 29, 2018 9:01:07 GMT -5
Why would they get rid of a form of measurement because itโs โirrelevantโ? Even if iTunes is only used by 30 people, 30 people are still buying music from it. The impact is super small but itโs still there. I swear some of the suggestions people come up with are ridiculous lmao Hi, you just actually argued for the formatโs removal at that point, because you know what format hasnโt counted for years? Physical single sales. In the years that I saw the numbers (2015-2017), the top song would get between 300 and 2,000 sales and less than 10 songs would cross the 3 digit mark in any week. There were so many ties and little interest that they even stopped doing that side chart sometime around the end of last year. |
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2018 9:44:04 GMT -5
The #1 on sales this week (Kris Wu) is gonna debut in the 50s on the Hot 100. So whatever, keep it in the format so very few people today keep buying it and use it as a measure of popularity like in the Delicate thread, which loves to talk about discount and how well itโs doing but somehow ignore streaming.
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Gary
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Posts: 45,662
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Post by Gary on May 29, 2018 9:47:36 GMT -5
Ugh - song popularity is based on music "consumption". People "consume" music in ways other than streaming
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Post by chartslovergermany on May 29, 2018 9:57:41 GMT -5
Yes Taylor at #14 and it's rising very fast :)
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nickd
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Post by nickd on May 29, 2018 11:14:53 GMT -5
Delicate should enter the top 30 this week right? Passing Mine and In My Blood this week is iffy but it should come close and definitely reach #12 on radio AI.
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on May 29, 2018 12:12:56 GMT -5
Why would they get rid of a form of measurement because itโs โirrelevantโ? Even if iTunes is only used by 30 people, 30 people are still buying music from it. The impact is super small but itโs still there. I swear some of the suggestions people come up with are ridiculous lmao Hi, you just actually argued for the formatโs removal at that point, because you know what format hasnโt counted for years? Physical single sales. In the years that I saw the numbers (2015-2017), the top song would get between 300 and 2,000 sales and less than 10 songs would cross the 3 digit mark in any week. There were so many ties and little interest that they even stopped doing that side chart sometime around the end of last year. What? I said they shouldnโt remove a format just because numbers are low. Just because they apparently did just that doesnโt mean I suddenly agree with it? Whoโs to say there wonโt be another Candle in the Wind moment where a $1.99 physical cd single is suddenly made available at retailers all over that sells a million copies. They canโt not count that. |
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renaboss
Platinum Member
I don't want to miss a thing.
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Post by renaboss on May 29, 2018 12:47:53 GMT -5
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annoymous1
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Post by annoymous1 on May 29, 2018 12:54:33 GMT -5
No Be Careful or Whatever it Takes in the top 10 smh at least Boo'd Up is in the top 10 but no one will care about that because of BTS being in the Top 10.
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brady47
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Post by brady47 on May 29, 2018 15:19:39 GMT -5
Yes at "Delicate" reviving Reputation.
I hope it becomes a decent hit for her, it gives me Style + Wildest Dreams vibes.
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lazer
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Posts: 2,522
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Post by lazer on May 29, 2018 15:33:05 GMT -5
So, Cardi B finally released the "I Like It" video.
Hopefully, it becomes a huge hit.
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