HITS 7/6: #1 Drake 158k sales 749k SPS

[Duca]

DRAKE'S STINGING TOTAL

Look for Drake to score approximately 749k total as he stomps to #1 on this week's HITS Top 50 Chart with YMCMB/Republic set Scorpion.

TOP 20: SCORP-KEEPING

You will not be shocked to read that Drake's Scorpion will be #1 on our Top 50 chart this week, landing with the year's biggest debut and shattering streaming records in the process.

1. *Drake (YMCMB/Republic) 725-750k Total, 150-160k Albums
2. *Florence + The Machine (Republic) 70-80k, 59-64k
3. Post Malone (Republic) 68-73k, 7-8k
4. XXXTentacion (Bad Vibes Forever) 59-64k, 3-4k
5. *Gorillaz (Parlophone) 55-60k, 45-50k
6. The Carters (Roc Nation/Parkwood/Columbia) 42-46k, 10-12k
7. Juice WRLD (Grade A/Interscope) 41-45k, 1-2k
8. Cardi B (Atlantic) 40-44k, 2-3k
9. Panic! At The Disco (Crush/Fueled by Ramen) 32-35k, 20-23k
10. The Greatest Showman (Atlantic) 29-32k, 17-19k
11. Guns N’ Roses (Geffen) 29-32k, 24-27k
12. XXXtentacion (Bad Vibes Forever/Empire) 27-30k, 1-2k
13. Lil Baby (QC/Motown/Capitol) 26-29k, <1k
14. Luke Combs (River House/Columbia Nashville) 23-26k, 6-7k
15. Post Malone (Republic) 20-23k, 1-2k
16. Kanye West (G.O.O.D/Def Jam) 20-23k, 2-3k
17. Maroon 5 (222/Interscope) 20-23k, 1-2k
18. Imagine Dragons (Kidinakorner/Interscope) 19-22k, 6-7k
19. Ed Sheeran (Atlantic) 18-21k, 16-18k
20. *Bullet For My Valentine (Spinefarm) 18-21k, 16-18k

*DEBUTS

SCORPION POWER (FRESH UPDATE)

Here's yet another updated glimpse of how Scorpion by YMCMB/Republic's Drake is doing in its first week.

Drake (YMCMB/Republic) 740k total activity, 150-160k album

SCORPION POWER (UPDATE)

Based on early reads, here's an updated glimpse of how Scorpion by YMCMB/Republic's Drake is doing in its first week.

Drake (YMCMB/Republic) 725-775k total activity, 150-160k album

SCORPION POWER

Based on early reads, Scorpion by YMCMB/Republic's Drake is on track for a record-breaking first week.

Drake (YMCMB/Republic) 870-920k total activity, 275-300k album.

DRAKE'S SCORPION: THE PRE-GAME SHOW

Drake has dropped the trailer for new YMCMB/Republic set Scorpion (due 6/29), and the biz is abuzz with speculation about how it might perform in its first week. Will it have a seven-figure bow, all in? What role might a bundle play? How will Drizzy's brutal diss war with Pusha T affect the narrative?

Will Drake reclaim his previous record for most first-week streams (385m), currently held by Post Malone (431m)? What streaming records will Scorpion set? Will Drake fans stream Scorpion enough times in its first week for it to surpass one million in total. How will the new weighted chart rules, which give more weight to subscriber streams, impact/benefit Scorpion?

[Naos]

I think it'll be higher than 'More Life', but less than 'Views'. Hope it's not as big as 'Views'.

[hot100predictions]

I hope it's bigger than Views too.

[nickd]

I'm going to go ahead and predict 725,000 SPS (450,000 pure sales). The streaming rule changes will hurt a bit.

Edit: since streaming rule change doesn't look like it'll hurt much I'm upping my SPS prediction to 800,000.

[kanfad]

Jun 26, 2018 16:33:44 GMT -5 nickd said:

I'm going to go ahead and predict 725,000 SPS (450,000 pure sales). The streaming rule changes will hurt a bit.

Hurt?

[Nick]

Jun 26, 2018 17:05:32 GMT -5 kanfad said:

Jun 26, 2018 16:33:44 GMT -5 nickd said:

I'm going to go ahead and predict 725,000 SPS (450,000 pure sales). The streaming rule changes will hurt a bit.

Hurt?

Apparently some new rule going into effect.

[Angel]

I'm gonna go all in and predict 1M+ SPS. No clue what sales will look like but I think he could easily surpass Post Malone's first week stream total.

[Naos]

Jun 26, 2018 17:05:32 GMT -5 kanfad said:

Jun 26, 2018 16:33:44 GMT -5 nickd said:

I'm going to go ahead and predict 725,000 SPS (450,000 pure sales). The streaming rule changes will hurt a bit.

Hurt?

While paid streams are uneffected, free streams are cut by a third, I believe, which will decrease streaming influence overall.

[Mayman]

I hope he does 1m+. I'm excited for this album.

[nickd]

Jun 26, 2018 17:05:32 GMT -5 kanfad said:

Jun 26, 2018 16:33:44 GMT -5 nickd said:

I'm going to go ahead and predict 725,000 SPS (450,000 pure sales). The streaming rule changes will hurt a bit.

Hurt?

Influence of paid streams will increase 20% while free streams will decrease 60%. Although looks like I overestimated how many streams are free. On the music streaming services it's only 20% of streams that come from free accounts. Youtube is still really big so artists that are highly dependent on MV streams will be hurt but that probably won't impact Drake much. Maybe he'll get >300,000 album equivalents from streaming.

2017 US streaming stats
Free streaming: 76B streams
Paid streaming: 301B streams
Youtube: 221B streams

[kanfad]

Jun 26, 2018 18:29:02 GMT -5 nickd said:

Jun 26, 2018 17:05:32 GMT -5 kanfad said:

Hurt?

Influence of paid streams will increase 20% while free streams will decrease 60%. Although looks like I overestimated how many streams are free. On the music streaming services it's only 20% of streams that come from free accounts. Youtube is still really big so artists that are highly dependent on MV streams will be hurt but that probably won't impact Drake much. Maybe he'll get >300,000 album equivalents from streaming.

2017 US streaming stats
Free streaming: 76B streams
Paid streaming: 301B streams
Youtube: 221B streams

Oh i thought you were talking exclusively about album sps numbers

[owenlovesmusic]

I really hope he surpasses 1 million. My prediction is 900K.

[kanfad]

I just remembered that bb counts sales for "double albums" twice. With Scorpion being a rumoured 23 tracks, he could choose to label it as such.
But I was wondering, who decides what a double album is? bb or the artist? Or is it determined by the number of discs in the physical release? What if it doesn't have a physical release, e.g More Life

More Life and Views were both 20+ songs long and if you wanted to,you could evenly group the songs into two genres at the very least. All in one album. Do they not deserve to be called "double albums"?

[areyoureadytojump]

Jun 26, 2018 19:09:42 GMT -5 kanfad said:

I just remembered that bb counts sales for "double albums" twice. With Scorpion being a rumoured 23 tracks, he could choose to label it as such.
But I was wondering, who decides what a double album is? bb or the artist? Or is it determined by the number of discs in the physical release? What if it doesn't have a physical release, e.g More Life

More Life and Views were both 20+ songs long and if you wanted to,you could evenly group the songs into two genres at the very least. All in one album. Do they not deserve to be called "double albums"?

Billboard does not count sales for double albums twice. They *never* have.

The RIAA does. Why Shania Twain's Up! album is 11xP. 5.5 million 2cd albums sold.

[kanfad]

Jun 26, 2018 19:25:11 GMT -5 areyoureadytojump said:

Jun 26, 2018 19:09:42 GMT -5 kanfad said:

I just remembered that bb counts sales for "double albums" twice. With Scorpion being a rumoured 23 tracks, he could choose to label it as such.
But I was wondering, who decides what a double album is? bb or the artist? Or is it determined by the number of discs in the physical release? What if it doesn't have a physical release, e.g More Life

More Life and Views were both 20+ songs long and if you wanted to,you could evenly group the songs into two genres at the very least. All in one album. Do they not deserve to be called "double albums"?

Billboard does not count sales for double albums twice. They *never* have.

The RIAA does. Why Shania Twain's Up! album is 11xP. 5.5 million 2cd albums sold.

Ohhh, well that makes more sense. Still tho, same question. How does the RIAA decide what a double album is?

[Naos]

Jun 26, 2018 19:32:34 GMT -5 kanfad said:

Jun 26, 2018 19:25:11 GMT -5 areyoureadytojump said:

Billboard does not count sales for double albums twice. They *never* have.

The RIAA does. Why Shania Twain's Up! album is 11xP. 5.5 million 2cd albums sold.

Ohhh, well that makes more sense. Still tho, same question. How does the RIAA decide what a double album is?

I assume multiple discs or a certain amount of tracks.

[YourFaveIsAFlop]

I believe there's a minimum run time too to prevent gaming the double album label with short interlude tracks to jack up stats

[Khia]

I'm not sure what the exact requirement is, but double albums have to meet a certain minimum runtime to be certified as such. Christina Aguilera's Back to Basics has two discs, but its runtime (~78 minutes) wasn't long enough to be considered a double album by the RIAA.

[jughead]

I think an album needs to be at least 100 minutes in length to be considered a double album.

[shayonce]

yes. "Minimum running time 100 minutes." from RIAA.
his last studio album views had 81m with 20 tracks. also more life had 81m with 22 tracks.

[Enigma.]

The album's not even out lol even I could've written that opening post with the info I have currently.

[DJ General]

It will break all records and be massive. Most anticipated of the year !

[KeepDeanWeird]

Forget Scorpion’s sales/SEA, I just want the release to take at least the Top 6 in H100 to wipe out The Beatles 50 y.o+ record. It’s time for change. The sheer number of tracks does reduce the likelihood of it happening. And PM can kiss the streaming record goodbye after next week.

[forg]

Hoping for huge pure sales. Huge Streaming is a given

[Enigma.]

Jun 27, 2018 9:41:38 GMT -5 KeepDeanWeird said:

Forget Scorpion’s sales/SEA, I just want the release to take at least the Top 6 in H100 to wipe out The Beatles 50 y.o+ record. It’s time for change. The sheer number of tracks does reduce the likelihood of it happening. And PM can kiss the streaming record goodbye after next week.

Streaming is growing every day so whatever record Drake achieves, it won't remain as a record for long.

[DJ General]

Someone in his camp just confirmed that it is indeed a double album. One R&B, one rap.

[owenlovesmusic]

I can't wait... tomorrow night!

[Choco]

This will be a huge test about how far superstars can still go with pure sales. These are probably gonna be the highest pure sales we'll see since Reputation, and I can't see anyone other than Taylor Swift or Adele eventually pulling in higher numbers. Anything above More Life is a win, although I'd like numbers close to 500k.

I'd also like a decent album. I'm still a fan of Drake but his recent output hasn't been his best.

[Deleted]

Okay, is everyone just assuming this new Drake album is gonna be good when they hope for a 1+ million opening? Drake's not immune from releasing mediocre projects that are way too long. If it doesn't put me to sleep like Views did, then sure, I hope it does a million.

[forg]

1M SPS is really doable considering how streaming has been huge especially for Drake