Duca
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Post by Duca on Jun 26, 2018 15:32:13 GMT -5
DRAKE'S STINGING TOTAL
Look for Drake to score approximately 749k total as he stomps to #1 on this week's HITS Top 50 Chart with YMCMB/Republic set Scorpion.TOP 20: SCORP-KEEPINGYou will not be shocked to read that Drake's Scorpion will be #1 on our Top 50 chart this week, landing with the year's biggest debut and shattering streaming records in the process. 1. *Drake (YMCMB/Republic) 725-750k Total, 150-160k Albums 2. *Florence + The Machine (Republic) 70-80k, 59-64k 3. Post Malone (Republic) 68-73k, 7-8k 4. XXXTentacion (Bad Vibes Forever) 59-64k, 3-4k 5. *Gorillaz (Parlophone) 55-60k, 45-50k 6. The Carters (Roc Nation/Parkwood/Columbia) 42-46k, 10-12k 7. Juice WRLD (Grade A/Interscope) 41-45k, 1-2k 8. Cardi B (Atlantic) 40-44k, 2-3k 9. Panic! At The Disco (Crush/Fueled by Ramen) 32-35k, 20-23k 10. The Greatest Showman (Atlantic) 29-32k, 17-19k 11. Guns N’ Roses (Geffen) 29-32k, 24-27k 12. XXXtentacion (Bad Vibes Forever/Empire) 27-30k, 1-2k 13. Lil Baby (QC/Motown/Capitol) 26-29k, <1k 14. Luke Combs (River House/Columbia Nashville) 23-26k, 6-7k 15. Post Malone (Republic) 20-23k, 1-2k 16. Kanye West (G.O.O.D/Def Jam) 20-23k, 2-3k 17. Maroon 5 (222/Interscope) 20-23k, 1-2k 18. Imagine Dragons (Kidinakorner/Interscope) 19-22k, 6-7k 19. Ed Sheeran (Atlantic) 18-21k, 16-18k 20. *Bullet For My Valentine (Spinefarm) 18-21k, 16-18k*DEBUTS SCORPION POWER (FRESH UPDATE)Here's yet another updated glimpse of how Scorpion by YMCMB/Republic's Drake is doing in its first week. Drake (YMCMB/Republic) 740k total activity, 150-160k albumSCORPION POWER (UPDATE)Based on early reads, here's an updated glimpse of how Scorpion by YMCMB/Republic's Drake is doing in its first week. Drake (YMCMB/Republic) 725-775k total activity, 150-160k albumSCORPION POWERBased on early reads, Scorpion by YMCMB/Republic's Drake is on track for a record-breaking first week. Drake (YMCMB/Republic) 870-920k total activity, 275-300k album.DRAKE'S SCORPION: THE PRE-GAME SHOWDrake has dropped the trailer for new YMCMB/Republic set Scorpion (due 6/29), and the biz is abuzz with speculation about how it might perform in its first week. Will it have a seven-figure bow, all in? What role might a bundle play? How will Drizzy's brutal diss war with Pusha T affect the narrative?
Will Drake reclaim his previous record for most first-week streams (385m), currently held by Post Malone (431m)? What streaming records will Scorpion set? Will Drake fans stream Scorpion enough times in its first week for it to surpass one million in total. How will the new weighted chart rules, which give more weight to subscriber streams, impact/benefit Scorpion?
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Post by Naos on Jun 26, 2018 16:22:48 GMT -5
I think it'll be higher than 'More Life', but less than 'Views'. Hope it's not as big as 'Views'.
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Post by hot100predictions on Jun 26, 2018 16:30:12 GMT -5
I hope it's bigger than Views too.
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nickd
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Post by nickd on Jun 26, 2018 16:33:44 GMT -5
I'm going to go ahead and predict 725,000 SPS (450,000 pure sales). The streaming rule changes will hurt a bit.
Edit: since streaming rule change doesn't look like it'll hurt much I'm upping my SPS prediction to 800,000.
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kanfad
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Post by kanfad on Jun 26, 2018 17:05:32 GMT -5
I'm going to go ahead and predict 725,000 SPS (450,000 pure sales). The streaming rule changes will hurt a bit. Hurt?
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Nick
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Post by Nick on Jun 26, 2018 17:12:10 GMT -5
I'm going to go ahead and predict 725,000 SPS (450,000 pure sales). The streaming rule changes will hurt a bit. Hurt? Apparently some new rule going into effect.
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Angel
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Post by Angel on Jun 26, 2018 17:45:12 GMT -5
I'm gonna go all in and predict 1M+ SPS. No clue what sales will look like but I think he could easily surpass Post Malone's first week stream total.
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Post by Naos on Jun 26, 2018 17:52:18 GMT -5
I'm going to go ahead and predict 725,000 SPS (450,000 pure sales). The streaming rule changes will hurt a bit. Hurt? While paid streams are uneffected, free streams are cut by a third, I believe, which will decrease streaming influence overall.
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Post by Mayman on Jun 26, 2018 18:23:16 GMT -5
I hope he does 1m+. I'm excited for this album.
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nickd
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Post by nickd on Jun 26, 2018 18:29:02 GMT -5
I'm going to go ahead and predict 725,000 SPS (450,000 pure sales). The streaming rule changes will hurt a bit. Hurt? Influence of paid streams will increase 20% while free streams will decrease 60%. Although looks like I overestimated how many streams are free. On the music streaming services it's only 20% of streams that come from free accounts. Youtube is still really big so artists that are highly dependent on MV streams will be hurt but that probably won't impact Drake much. Maybe he'll get >300,000 album equivalents from streaming. 2017 US streaming stats Free streaming: 76B streams Paid streaming: 301B streams Youtube: 221B streams
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kanfad
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Post by kanfad on Jun 26, 2018 18:31:21 GMT -5
Influence of paid streams will increase 20% while free streams will decrease 60%. Although looks like I overestimated how many streams are free. On the music streaming services it's only 20% of streams that come from free accounts. Youtube is still really big so artists that are highly dependent on MV streams will be hurt but that probably won't impact Drake much. Maybe he'll get >300,000 album equivalents from streaming. 2017 US streaming stats Free streaming: 76B streams Paid streaming: 301B streams Youtube: 221B streams Oh i thought you were talking exclusively about album sps numbers
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owenlovesmusic
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Post by owenlovesmusic on Jun 26, 2018 18:46:06 GMT -5
I really hope he surpasses 1 million. My prediction is 900K.
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kanfad
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Post by kanfad on Jun 26, 2018 19:09:42 GMT -5
I just remembered that bb counts sales for "double albums" twice. With Scorpion being a rumoured 23 tracks, he could choose to label it as such. But I was wondering, who decides what a double album is? bb or the artist? Or is it determined by the number of discs in the physical release? What if it doesn't have a physical release, e.g More Life
More Life and Views were both 20+ songs long and if you wanted to,you could evenly group the songs into two genres at the very least. All in one album. Do they not deserve to be called "double albums"?
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Jun 26, 2018 19:25:11 GMT -5
I just remembered that bb counts sales for "double albums" twice. With Scorpion being a rumoured 23 tracks, he could choose to label it as such. But I was wondering, who decides what a double album is? bb or the artist? Or is it determined by the number of discs in the physical release? What if it doesn't have a physical release, e.g More Life More Life and Views were both 20+ songs long and if you wanted to,you could evenly group the songs into two genres at the very least. All in one album. Do they not deserve to be called "double albums"? Billboard does not count sales for double albums twice. They *never* have. The RIAA does. Why Shania Twain's Up! album is 11xP. 5.5 million 2cd albums sold.
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kanfad
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Post by kanfad on Jun 26, 2018 19:32:34 GMT -5
I just remembered that bb counts sales for "double albums" twice. With Scorpion being a rumoured 23 tracks, he could choose to label it as such. But I was wondering, who decides what a double album is? bb or the artist? Or is it determined by the number of discs in the physical release? What if it doesn't have a physical release, e.g More Life More Life and Views were both 20+ songs long and if you wanted to,you could evenly group the songs into two genres at the very least. All in one album. Do they not deserve to be called "double albums"? Billboard does not count sales for double albums twice. They *never* have. The RIAA does. Why Shania Twain's Up! album is 11xP. 5.5 million 2cd albums sold. Ohhh, well that makes more sense. Still tho, same question. How does the RIAA decide what a double album is?
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Post by Naos on Jun 27, 2018 0:08:29 GMT -5
Billboard does not count sales for double albums twice. They *never* have. The RIAA does. Why Shania Twain's Up! album is 11xP. 5.5 million 2cd albums sold. Ohhh, well that makes more sense. Still tho, same question. How does the RIAA decide what a double album is? I assume multiple discs or a certain amount of tracks.
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YourFaveIsAFlop
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Post by YourFaveIsAFlop on Jun 27, 2018 0:21:22 GMT -5
I believe there's a minimum run time too to prevent gaming the double album label with short interlude tracks to jack up stats
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Khia
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Post by Khia on Jun 27, 2018 1:00:38 GMT -5
I'm not sure what the exact requirement is, but double albums have to meet a certain minimum runtime to be certified as such. Christina Aguilera's Back to Basics has two discs, but its runtime (~78 minutes) wasn't long enough to be considered a double album by the RIAA.
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jughead
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Post by jughead on Jun 27, 2018 2:17:23 GMT -5
I think an album needs to be at least 100 minutes in length to be considered a double album.
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shayonce
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Post by shayonce on Jun 27, 2018 3:56:48 GMT -5
yes. "Minimum running time 100 minutes." from RIAA. his last studio album views had 81m with 20 tracks. also more life had 81m with 22 tracks.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Jun 27, 2018 7:53:37 GMT -5
The album's not even out lol even I could've written that opening post with the info I have currently.
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DJ General
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Post by DJ General on Jun 27, 2018 9:30:02 GMT -5
It will break all records and be massive. Most anticipated of the year !
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Post by KeepDeanWeird on Jun 27, 2018 9:41:38 GMT -5
Forget Scorpion’s sales/SEA, I just want the release to take at least the Top 6 in H100 to wipe out The Beatles 50 y.o+ record. It’s time for change. The sheer number of tracks does reduce the likelihood of it happening. And PM can kiss the streaming record goodbye after next week.
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forg
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Post by forg on Jun 27, 2018 10:41:51 GMT -5
Hoping for huge pure sales. Huge Streaming is a given
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Jun 27, 2018 12:29:18 GMT -5
Forget Scorpion’s sales/SEA, I just want the release to take at least the Top 6 in H100 to wipe out The Beatles 50 y.o+ record. It’s time for change. The sheer number of tracks does reduce the likelihood of it happening. And PM can kiss the streaming record goodbye after next week. Streaming is growing every day so whatever record Drake achieves, it won't remain as a record for long.
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DJ General
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Post by DJ General on Jun 27, 2018 13:48:35 GMT -5
Someone in his camp just confirmed that it is indeed a double album. One R&B, one rap.
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owenlovesmusic
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Post by owenlovesmusic on Jun 27, 2018 14:05:50 GMT -5
I can't wait... tomorrow night!
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Choco
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Post by Choco on Jun 27, 2018 15:16:01 GMT -5
This will be a huge test about how far superstars can still go with pure sales. These are probably gonna be the highest pure sales we'll see since Reputation, and I can't see anyone other than Taylor Swift or Adele eventually pulling in higher numbers. Anything above More Life is a win, although I'd like numbers close to 500k.
I'd also like a decent album. I'm still a fan of Drake but his recent output hasn't been his best.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2018 21:13:44 GMT -5
Okay, is everyone just assuming this new Drake album is gonna be good when they hope for a 1+ million opening? Drake's not immune from releasing mediocre projects that are way too long. If it doesn't put me to sleep like Views did, then sure, I hope it does a million.
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forg
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Post by forg on Jun 27, 2018 21:21:13 GMT -5
1M SPS is really doable considering how streaming has been huge especially for Drake
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