Billboard Hot 100: 11/17/18
Nov 2, 2018 9:26:37 GMT -5
Post by rimetm on Nov 2, 2018 9:26:37 GMT -5
Things are looking to heat up this week as there's something interesting on all cylinders:
Alternative Anarchy at the Airplay
As usual, Maroon 5 are on their way down the radio chart with Girls Like You, though it remains taking its sweet time. However, the old guard of challengers (Better Now, Lucid Dreams, Love Lies) have all peaked and the one straggler (Youngblood) looks to be on its way out. Instead, we have a different set vying for that top spot, and they both come from the world of alt-radio: "High Hopes" by Panic! at the Disco, which has been sporting impressive gains that actually appear to be themselves increasing as the days go by, and "Happier" by Marshmello and Bastille, which has begun to mellow but has already vaulted quite far. Surprisingly, the current alt #1, "Natural" by Imagine Dragons, appears to be floundering, perhaps a victim of not following the usual Imagine Dragons strategy and instead pushing to every format at once, risking peak at all of them simultaneously as such.
Album Bombing Run on Sales
Every week seems to bring with it a new set of albums that try to pepper the Hot 100 with their cuts, and this week seems to be hailing a set from abroad. As of Friday, Kris Wu's launched album takes the top 7 of iTunes by a safe margin reminiscent of A Star is Born's first week. However, this could be a VPN ruse like other such attempts (Deserve in particular) by his fans and could result in nothing on the chart, or it could fizzle naturally. Then again, his "Like That" did hit the Hot 100 on it own merit, so it could go either way. Other songs to watch out from the metric: "The Greatest Show" by Panic! at the Disco, "Tempo" by EXO, "Machine" by Imagine Dragons, and "Party for One" by Carly Rae Jepsen.
Streaming Reports...
The big news here is the runaway success of Metro Boomin's album. While not as ubiquitous as something like J. Cole or Future, he still nabs a couple of high entries, and these could translate to a mini-album bomb ala Lil' Yachty or Khalid on the Hot 100. Biggest songs, all starting with ~1 million US Spotify streams, are "10 Freaky Girls" (a collab with 21 Savage), "Overdue" (a collab with Travis Scott), and "Don't Come Out the House" (another 21 collab). Watch out also for "Dip" by Tyga, likely to make a leap after last week's debut.
The Surprise Sparring Starlet
Midway through the charting week, a certain single dropped that kinda changed everything: "thank u, next" by Ariana Grande. A commentary on her growth and those who have affected her life, the song struck a chord with fans and the general public alike, amassing immense sales (well, at least for this climate) and streams and finally exposing the hackery of the aforementioned Kris Wu situation, getting it squashed on the iTunes storefront.
Our Hot 100 Prospects?
It's no question now, "thank u, next" is the #1 for the week, our fourth #1 debut of the chart year. "Girls Like You" should be permanently defeated, as both Sicko Mode and Happier should pass it by next week, with the latter as the agreed upon natural successor. The Bohemian Rhapsody movie should spark a re-entry on the Hot 100, with the title track aiming for the top 30 with stronger sales and streams than last week's "Thriller". Other likely debuts are the new cover of "The Greatest Show" (~90-100), "10 Freaky Girls" (~30-50), and a handful of other Metro Boomin' songs in the lower half.
The Metrics So Far
Sales (Early projections; Kris Wu data that will likely be thrown denoted)
73 Thank U, Next
[48 November Rain]
[45 Antares]
[43 Selfish]
33 Shallow
31 Without Me
[29 We Alive]
[27 Tough Pill]
[25 Coupe]
23 Happier
23 High Hopes
21 Bohemian Rhapsody
16 Always Remember Us This Way
16 Natural
[16 Explore]
14 I'll Never Love Again
13 We Will Rock You
13 The Greatest Show [Cover]
Radio (Rolling numbers: 4/7 of final days reported)
148 Girls Like You
125 Youngblood
115 Happier
110 Love Lies
109 Better Now
102 High Hopes
095 God is a Woman
089 Lucid Dreams
085 Broken
082 Natural
On-Demand Audio Streams (By HitsDailyDouble)
45.7 Thank U, Next
22.3 Drip Too Hard
21.0 Mo Bamba
19.5 Zeze
18.0 Sicko Mode
16.3 10 Freaky Girls
16.2 Don't Come Out the House
15.8 Space Cadet
15.2 Without Me
13.3 Overdue
Alternative Anarchy at the Airplay
As usual, Maroon 5 are on their way down the radio chart with Girls Like You, though it remains taking its sweet time. However, the old guard of challengers (Better Now, Lucid Dreams, Love Lies) have all peaked and the one straggler (Youngblood) looks to be on its way out. Instead, we have a different set vying for that top spot, and they both come from the world of alt-radio: "High Hopes" by Panic! at the Disco, which has been sporting impressive gains that actually appear to be themselves increasing as the days go by, and "Happier" by Marshmello and Bastille, which has begun to mellow but has already vaulted quite far. Surprisingly, the current alt #1, "Natural" by Imagine Dragons, appears to be floundering, perhaps a victim of not following the usual Imagine Dragons strategy and instead pushing to every format at once, risking peak at all of them simultaneously as such.
Album Bombing Run on Sales
Every week seems to bring with it a new set of albums that try to pepper the Hot 100 with their cuts, and this week seems to be hailing a set from abroad. As of Friday, Kris Wu's launched album takes the top 7 of iTunes by a safe margin reminiscent of A Star is Born's first week. However, this could be a VPN ruse like other such attempts (Deserve in particular) by his fans and could result in nothing on the chart, or it could fizzle naturally. Then again, his "Like That" did hit the Hot 100 on it own merit, so it could go either way. Other songs to watch out from the metric: "The Greatest Show" by Panic! at the Disco, "Tempo" by EXO, "Machine" by Imagine Dragons, and "Party for One" by Carly Rae Jepsen.
Streaming Reports...
The big news here is the runaway success of Metro Boomin's album. While not as ubiquitous as something like J. Cole or Future, he still nabs a couple of high entries, and these could translate to a mini-album bomb ala Lil' Yachty or Khalid on the Hot 100. Biggest songs, all starting with ~1 million US Spotify streams, are "10 Freaky Girls" (a collab with 21 Savage), "Overdue" (a collab with Travis Scott), and "Don't Come Out the House" (another 21 collab). Watch out also for "Dip" by Tyga, likely to make a leap after last week's debut.
The Surprise Sparring Starlet
Midway through the charting week, a certain single dropped that kinda changed everything: "thank u, next" by Ariana Grande. A commentary on her growth and those who have affected her life, the song struck a chord with fans and the general public alike, amassing immense sales (well, at least for this climate) and streams and finally exposing the hackery of the aforementioned Kris Wu situation, getting it squashed on the iTunes storefront.
Our Hot 100 Prospects?
It's no question now, "thank u, next" is the #1 for the week, our fourth #1 debut of the chart year. "Girls Like You" should be permanently defeated, as both Sicko Mode and Happier should pass it by next week, with the latter as the agreed upon natural successor. The Bohemian Rhapsody movie should spark a re-entry on the Hot 100, with the title track aiming for the top 30 with stronger sales and streams than last week's "Thriller". Other likely debuts are the new cover of "The Greatest Show" (~90-100), "10 Freaky Girls" (~30-50), and a handful of other Metro Boomin' songs in the lower half.
The Metrics So Far
Sales (Early projections; Kris Wu data that will likely be thrown denoted)
73 Thank U, Next
[48 November Rain]
[45 Antares]
[43 Selfish]
33 Shallow
31 Without Me
[29 We Alive]
[27 Tough Pill]
[25 Coupe]
23 Happier
23 High Hopes
21 Bohemian Rhapsody
16 Always Remember Us This Way
16 Natural
[16 Explore]
14 I'll Never Love Again
13 We Will Rock You
13 The Greatest Show [Cover]
Radio (Rolling numbers: 4/7 of final days reported)
148 Girls Like You
125 Youngblood
115 Happier
110 Love Lies
109 Better Now
102 High Hopes
095 God is a Woman
089 Lucid Dreams
085 Broken
082 Natural
On-Demand Audio Streams (By HitsDailyDouble)
45.7 Thank U, Next
22.3 Drip Too Hard
21.0 Mo Bamba
19.5 Zeze
18.0 Sicko Mode
16.3 10 Freaky Girls
16.2 Don't Come Out the House
15.8 Space Cadet
15.2 Without Me
13.3 Overdue
