ClevelandRox
Diamond Member
Joined: January 2007
Posts: 13,539
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Post by ClevelandRox on Jul 31, 2019 4:20:09 GMT -5
Why on earth did it take eight months to release a video? Hopefully they're just pushing this into the top ten, I've never been a fan of this one and have been ready for (fingers crossed) All Of It for almost a year now.
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Post by Wackadoodle on Jul 31, 2019 5:32:13 GMT -5
Tbh I’m ready for new music. I know I threw a pearl-clutching temper tantrum about this one’s slow pace a few weeks back, but this song and Cole’s entire third album have burned on me pretty quickly. The music is just too generic and “safe.” Cole needs another career song like “Chillin’ It” or “Ain’t Worth the Whiskey.” Don’t get me wrong, this is still good material, but I do hope they push this single to #1 and then move forward with a lead single off a new album like Chris Young’s team did after the slow climbs of the two singles off his last album. It’d probably be a wiser choice than spending another year pushing a slow climbing third single off this album up the charts, which could end up only further burning up Cole’s momentum.
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Post by Naos on Aug 12, 2019 16:54:29 GMT -5
Hot 100: #94 (debut)
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vann
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Post by vann on Aug 13, 2019 15:07:10 GMT -5
I liked the video although I thought they wouldnt release it lol.As Cole has released songs for another Down Home Sessions I think the new album wont come so quickly.
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Post by Naos on Aug 19, 2019 19:35:21 GMT -5
Hot 100: #75 (+19)
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Post by Wackadoodle on Sept 16, 2019 14:00:21 GMT -5
So when's the big push for this? I'm guessing 10/7-10/13. Matt Stell's going to be a problem. The two are already basically neck-and-neck and Stell's clearly got the bigger record that's gaining on Cole's song. By the time push week comes around, Stell may be too far ahead on Billboard for Cole to overtake him and Cole will end up with another Mediabase-only #1. Does Warner even care about getting Billboard #1s, or are they content with the Mediabase #1? Usually I'd say it's not a big deal and be fine with a #2 or #3 peak on the Billboard chart, but it's been almost three years since Cole's had a Billboard #1 and his momentum's starting to fade. Radio's skeptical that he can still deliver hits as big as he used to after "Stay Downtown" peaked in the 20s and "Break Up in the End" tested poorly and burned quickly. (Not to mention "Flatliner" was a weaker tester, too.) Warner should pull out all the stops to get it this time around and remind folks that Cole can still deliver hit records. "Love You Too Late" has the research numbers to merit a #1, even if it's been a little slow to climb the charts (like everything from anyone not named Luke Combs), and it's selling about the same as Carrie's "Southbound" which is on track to easily reach #1. Not to mention it's far out-selling Chris Janson's "Good Vibes" which is cruising through the top 10.
Maybe Cole should let Matt go up ahead and try to push at the end of October? Timing is going to be everything here.
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sabre14
Diamond Member
Vince Gill & the Muppets make everything better
Joined: October 2013
Posts: 26,916
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Post by sabre14 on Sept 16, 2019 14:50:58 GMT -5
Cole's song won't last until the end of October, some stations have been playing it since last Christmas lol. It's at 42 weeks charting on Billboard Airplay.
I agree that "Prayed for You" is a problem but they're not pushing until after Carrie. It just took "Love You Too Late" so long to get going and ended up burning a ton of weeks below the top 30. I think Cole can get to #1 on Mediabase, we'll see about Billboard.
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Post by Wackadoodle on Sept 16, 2019 14:52:05 GMT -5
Cole's song won't last until the end of October, some stations have been playing it since last Christmas lol. It's at 42 weeks charting on Billboard Airplay. I agree that "Prayed for You" is a problem but they're not pushing until after Carrie. It just took "Love You Too Late" so long to get going and ended up burning a ton of weeks below the top 30. I think Cole can get to #1 on Mediabase, we'll see about Billboard. Thanks! Love your chart commentary and insider info. It's juicy, lol.
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Post by Wackadoodle on Sept 27, 2019 22:42:31 GMT -5
I see Vince Gill's co-hosting the Lon Helton program the week after Carrie Underwood (10/5-10/6), which would presumably be Cole's week to co-host since he's likely next in line for a #1 push after Carrie. Chris Janson is booked for the following week, which makes Cole's chances of hitting #1 look not too great now. This could end up with a solid #3 peak on both the Mediabase and Billboard charts, behind Matt and Chris, if the push indeed occurs the week of 10/7-10/13. Chris may be in danger of missing #1, too, if "Good Vibes" is pushed the week of 10/14-10/21, before Matt Stell's "Prayed for You" is out the way. The other, less likely possibility is that Warner isn't even going to bother competing with Matt and Chris for #1 and plans to just let Cole wait his turn and get #1 after them, but as sabre14 said, it's not likely Cole can hang around until the end of October since this song is already ten months old and has burned through a ton of weeks at the bottom of the chart. However, this really does deserve to be a #1 and if it doesn't hit the top, it'll be despite, not because of, research. ("Love You Too Late" has the lowest negatives on the entire Mediabase callout chart again this week.)
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Post by Wackadoodle on Sept 29, 2019 7:04:09 GMT -5
Sorry for the double post, but my instincts on this situation are that Cole should max this week. He'd easily get it. However, I don't know if that's their strategy. I wish I could call them up and offer my input, because I know the situation. Push as soon as possible when the threshold is low. Allows radio to get the song out of the way. Plus this can be sold as an amazing tester. Grab it, Cole!
The promotion strategy would be to stay quiet by not putting out any ads in the trades, so the other labels won't be aware of the push, and simply call up every radio station on Monday and say, "Hey, we have the lowest negatives on the entire chart and it's almost been a full calendar year since Cole had a song at the top of the charts. This one's ten months old. Let's just give it max rotation this one week and move on. Let the chips fall where they may."
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.indulgecountry
Diamond Member
Best Country Poster 2011, 2017, & 2018
"You left a mark on my face // And brought a dozen red flags in a vase"
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Post by .indulgecountry on Sept 29, 2019 9:54:45 GMT -5
Sorry for the double post, but my instincts on this situation are that Cole should max this week. He'd easily get it. However, I don't know if that's their strategy. I wish I could call them up and offer my input, because I know the situation. Push as soon as possible when the threshold is low. Allows radio to get the song out of the way. Plus this can be sold as an amazing tester. Grab it, Cole! The promotion strategy would be to stay quiet by not putting out any ads in the trades, so the other labels won't be aware of the push, and simply call up every radio station on Monday and say, "Hey, we have the lowest negatives on the entire chart and it's almost been a full calendar year since Cole had a song at the top of the charts. This one's ten months old. Let's just give it max rotation this one week and move on. Let the chips fall where they may." I love how you say this like the label doesn't have an entire team of people on payroll who don't "know the situation" like you do. Everyone on here at one time or another likes to play the game of 'I know better than the record label,' but at the end of the day, they're the ones that have been maneuvering this song up the charts and low negatives or not, it took a long time to climb the charts and enthusiasm for Cole Swindell seems to have cooled off pretty considerably in the past couple years (around the start of album era #2 he looked poised to become a much bigger player at country radio than where he is currently). I'm aware that callout numbers are your one and only form of measurement in determining hit potential, but I definitely don't get a "this deserves a #1 vibe" from this single and haven't for its entire run. It wouldn't exactly be a farce or anything if this did make it to the top, but he's already had far bigger hits than this one that moved the needle more, that also came up short.
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Post by Wackadoodle on Sept 29, 2019 10:36:42 GMT -5
Sorry for the double post, but my instincts on this situation are that Cole should max this week. He'd easily get it. However, I don't know if that's their strategy. I wish I could call them up and offer my input, because I know the situation. Push as soon as possible when the threshold is low. Allows radio to get the song out of the way. Plus this can be sold as an amazing tester. Grab it, Cole! The promotion strategy would be to stay quiet by not putting out any ads in the trades, so the other labels won't be aware of the push, and simply call up every radio station on Monday and say, "Hey, we have the lowest negatives on the entire chart and it's almost been a full calendar year since Cole had a song at the top of the charts. This one's ten months old. Let's just give it max rotation this one week and move on. Let the chips fall where they may." I love how you say this like the label doesn't have an entire team of people on payroll who don't "know the situation" like you do. Everyone on here at one time or another likes to play the game of 'I know better than the record label,' but at the end of the day, they're the ones that have been maneuvering this song up the charts and low negatives or not, it took a long time to climb the charts and enthusiasm for Cole Swindell seems to have cooled off pretty considerably in the past couple years (around the start of album era #2 he looked poised to become a much bigger player at country radio than where he is currently). I'm aware that callout numbers are your one and only form of measurement in determining hit potential, but I definitely don't get a "this deserves a #1 vibe" from this single and haven't for its entire run. It wouldn't exactly be a farce or anything if this did make it to the top, but he's already had far bigger hits than this one that moved the needle more, that also came up short. Thanks for your input. How do you predict this is gonna go down? I really have no idea when the push is occurring. I’d recommend go for the soonest week possible because in the past Warner has waited around with Cole and missed their chance for a Billboard #1 because of it. It all comes down to the whole “everyone gets a week” theme. Labels need to start being more aggressive and stop trying to play nice with each other. Cole clearly has a hit record here. It’s tested better than his past three singles, all of which I would’ve never released to radio. The chart runs are slower for literally everyone. FGL just spent more than 40 weeks on the chart. That’s just the climate right now. A slow climb doesn’t mean something isn’t a hit. I’ve offered my support for some consideration of sales, too. The sales and streaming numbers for this seem fine as well. Anyway, I see your point. It’s difficult for us outsiders to know what’s going on within the corporate establishment. All I can offer is my educated guess based on the metrics I see, and I enjoy listening to you and others’ strategies of taking the temperature of a song’s chart run. Thank you for explaining yourself. ETA: What’s really screwed everything up is the obnoxious push by Dungan to get Luke B. a manufactured second week at the top, all part of a petty effort to reassert Luke B. as the true “alpha male” over the other Luke and Blake. This pushed the schedule back a week, endangering both Cole and Carrie.
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Post by Wackadoodle on Oct 4, 2019 0:55:23 GMT -5
It’s official. They’re pushing Cole into runoff season folks.
These corporations just love to keep us all on the edge of our seats as long as possible, don’t they? Typical...
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Oct 4, 2019 15:17:14 GMT -5
It’s official. They’re pushing Cole into runoff season folks. These corporations just love to keep us all on the edge of our seats as long as possible, don’t they? Typical... That 2nd week for Knockin’ Boots was unnecessary imo. This could’ve been #1 this week with Carrie being #1 the previous week, but like the previous poster said, Luke B’s 2nd week at the top threw off the schedule and I see this peaking at #2 next week as Matt Stell has a MASSIVE hit on his hands here and he should spend at least 2 weeks at the top, if not more.
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Post by Wackadoodle on Oct 5, 2019 11:47:16 GMT -5
It’s official. They’re pushing Cole into runoff season folks. These corporations just love to keep us all on the edge of our seats as long as possible, don’t they? Typical... That 2nd week for Knockin’ Boots was unnecessary imo. This could’ve been #1 this week with Carrie being #1 the previous week, but like the previous poster said, Luke B’s 2nd week at the top threw off the schedule and I see this peaking at #2 next week as Matt Stell has a MASSIVE hit on his hands here and he should spend at least 2 weeks at the top, if not more. Eh, I'm a little more worried about Chris Janson's chances of hitting #1. It's pretty apparent Warner plans to max "Good Vibes" the week of 10/14-10/20 and this the week of 10/21-10/28. So if "Prayed for You" sticks around after next week, it's more likely to block Chris than Cole, which is unfortunate, because Chris' song is clearly a bigger hit than Cole's. I hope they all get their one week and no one gets blocked this time around, because I love all three and they've all been pretty decent-sized hits. Honestly, while I see "Prayed for You" as a big hit, I just don't see it blocking anyone. I think it'll get its one week at #1 on Mediabase next week, maybe two on Billboard if it manages to block "Southbound" this week, and then it'll fall out of the top spot and spend a bunch of weeks in the top 10 before going recurrent, sort of like "Greatest Love Story," which was a massive hit but the timing just never really worked out for it to get a bunch of extra weeks at #1.
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Post by winstonmurdock on Oct 22, 2019 10:15:31 GMT -5
Looks like this is finally the week for a #1 push. I would think a Mediabase #1 should happen with an outside shot at a Billboard #1 as well, along the lines of how Janson's happened. With both being on Warner, I would look for Janson's song to start to fall like a rock this week after hitting both #1s and several big songs clearly behind in spins at the moment. Would certainly like to see this get a #1 after such a long, slow climb. Still several hit singles from the last album if they choose to stay with it for next one.
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phil1996
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Post by phil1996 on Oct 22, 2019 16:26:47 GMT -5
I wish they’d have released Sounded Good Last Night over this. Although maybe they still will. That song is a complete smash
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Oct 22, 2019 20:27:32 GMT -5
I’d imagine “Sounded Good Last Night”, “All Of It” and “Dad’s Old Number” would be the songs in consideration for next single. “Dad’s Old Number” is risky considering how long of a climb this one had, it could destroy momentum despite being a quality song that shows emotion. “Sounded Good Last Night” could become huge around summertime if they release it as a single now which would line up really nicely.
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Post by Wackadoodle on Oct 23, 2019 5:04:21 GMT -5
Looks like this is finally the week for a #1 push. I would think a Mediabase #1 should happen with an outside shot at a Billboard #1 as well, along the lines of how Janson's happened. With both being on Warner, I would look for Janson's song to start to fall like a rock this week after hitting both #1s and several big songs clearly behind in spins at the moment. Would certainly like to see this get a #1 after such a long, slow climb. Still several hit singles from the last album if they choose to stay with it for next one. This isn't even a contested week. A Billboard #1 is basically guaranteed. I’d imagine “Sounded Good Last Night”, “All Of It” and “Dad’s Old Number” would be the songs in consideration for next single. “Dad’s Old Number” is risky considering how long of a climb this one had, it could destroy momentum despite being a quality song that shows emotion. “Sounded Good Last Night” could become huge around summertime if they release it as a single now which would line up really nicely. I doubt there will be another single from this album given how slow this one climbed. A third would just take a year to climb to #15 and damage his momentum, no matter how good it is. He'll come back some time mid-next year with a new lead single that's a jam and blows up the charts, hopefully. We can enjoy these other great songs as album tracks. I love to listen to his CD in the car.
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CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on Oct 27, 2019 16:17:10 GMT -5
This seems like it will be the #1 on Mediabase tonight but how do you know on All Access when it is the final update?
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Oct 27, 2019 16:24:44 GMT -5
This seems like it will be the #1 on Mediabase tonight but how do you know on All Access when it is the final update? Little after 9pm Eastern Standard Time the All Access chart removes any of the recurrents.
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CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on Oct 28, 2019 11:50:58 GMT -5
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Post by Naos on Oct 28, 2019 21:39:06 GMT -5
Hot 100: #49 (+11)
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Post by lady𝓐fan on Oct 29, 2019 15:55:25 GMT -5
Couldn't have said it better myself.
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CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on Oct 30, 2019 15:05:17 GMT -5
I’m interested to see what the third single will be. I’m really hoping for “The Ones Who Got Me Here”. Then again I need to revisit the album because looking at the track list it’s the only song I remember besides “Dad’s Old Number”.
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Post by Wackadoodle on Oct 31, 2019 11:16:47 GMT -5
DON or TOWGMH would be a repeat of BUITE or SD. Boring af. The single needs to be a new song off a new album, All of It, Her or Sounded Good Last Night in order to stand a chance at radio. Some people are getting bored with Cole since he hasn't delivered any of those easy to crank up jams that his fan base loves in so long.
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Post by winstonmurdock on Oct 31, 2019 15:11:29 GMT -5
Highly likely that they are coming with a brand new single in early 2020.
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phil1996
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Post by phil1996 on Nov 12, 2019 18:57:59 GMT -5
Highly likely that they are coming with a brand new single in early 2020. That’s ridiculous if true. Why so fast? Pretty good album full of potential hits
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Nov 12, 2019 19:00:00 GMT -5
Highly likely that they are coming with a brand new single in early 2020. That’s ridiculous if true. Why so fast? Pretty good album full of potential hits I mean his last single took pretty much a whole calendar year to peak at #1 and "Love You Too Late" was pretty much radio friendly filler as it gets, so if the label opted for a third single they are probably gonna have the same result if not a bit worse would be my guest.
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vann
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Post by vann on Nov 15, 2019 10:01:36 GMT -5
I am surprised how "Love You Too Late" struggled to get #1 as a radio friendly song so I am not sure if a third single would be a good call altough I dont like how an album can be thrown away after two singles.
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