Billboard Hot 100: 11/24/18

[rimetm]

Another for Ariana Or...

Looking forward for this upcoming week, "thank u, next" is still seemingly riding the hype train to another week at #1. It leads on-demand audio furiously, remains the crown of sales, and is beginning to be picked up by radio. However, that last spot is still a weakness, and there's a certain song vying to finally get its potential last shot at the top spot: Sicko Mode. It goes on discount as of Friday and still holds significant airplay holdings along with not insignificant streaming on both on-demand and YouTube (another weak spot for Ariana). If Travis and crew perform well and TUN shows any weakness (or "Breathin'" eats into its growth thanks to the MV), this could be its chance!

The Day 1 Sales Buzz

With our first day's worth of sales, the following stuff seems notable:

• Our biggest hyped new sales song right now is Backstreet Boys' "Chances", in the top 5 as of Friday night. I give it a 50/50 shot of sticking around enough for a token shot at the Hot 100.
• With Origins' launch, "Natural" has received a sales boost along with "Bad Liar". The latter along with "Zero" and "Machine" might all have a shot at a Hot 100 appearance if they hold up and get some decent streams ala Trench's stuff, and "Natural" might be poised for a chance at, say, #10.
• XXX's first posthumous album is prepping up, and its lead single, "BAD", starts off decently, ending Friday in the top 10. With the streams it's likely to get, expect a top 50 debut at the minimum.
• Amongst genre reps, country has a potential for an album boost for Kane Brown, namely with "Lose It", and Zac Brown Band open with the discount gambit for "Someone I Used to Know" ending Friday in the top 10. Meanwhile, for Latin stuff, J-Lo and Bad Bunny have a new collab called "Te Guste" that might start well on the Hot 100 depending on the streaming numbers. It ends Friday in the top 15.

Advance Apple Music Analysis

With Spotify doing daily reports, we have no info from it yet, but Apple Music has live bars like iTunes, so here's what we can glean from it.

• "BAD" is behind only "thank u, next" on the chart. Top 50 as mentioned above is the conservative estimate: if it also does well on Spotify, I fully expect a top 10 debut. We saw with "Money" how getting major support on one but not the other can kneecap a song.
• The Metro Boomin' songs from last week remain holding on pretty strongly, so there may not be a mass exodus on the Hot 100 quite yet.
• Trippie Redd has a minor album bomb going; probably won't result in much bigger than Khalid or Lil' Yachty on the Hot 100.

[mackattack]

doesn’t this feel kinda early?

[tanooki]

Nov 9, 2018 14:04:47 GMT -5 mackattack said:

doesn’t this feel kinda early?

The tracking week is rn

[Gary]

OK let's get 15 pages here before "last week's" chart even gets released - LOL


The big reveal for "this week's" chart is still 10 days away

[tanooki]

Nov 9, 2018 14:19:41 GMT -5 Gary said:

OK let's get 15 pages here before "last week's" chart even gets released - LOL


The big reveal for "this week's" chart is still 10 days away

I mean, chart DISCUSSION is this board...

[Gary]

I get the tracking week - blah blah
But we have no information on it at this point (based on what has been posted)

This week's chart is so far away at this point that the wait to this weeks chart is longer than a week

Ariana excitement I suppose

[tanooki]

This is the last week for the billboard year, right?

[Gary]

OK so who is gonna start the 12/1/18 thread? Anyone tired of November yet?

[tanooki]

Nov 9, 2018 14:53:30 GMT -5 Gary said:

OK so who is gonna start the 12/1/18 thread? Anyone tired of November yet?

probably the dude who started this thread

Nah, I'd say next week when the 12/1/18 thread is actually made is when I'll be tired of November

[Kris]

I miss when these topics were started when the airplay on the Monday was released.

Next week someone gonna post the 12/21/21 chart.

[tanooki]

Natural going top 10 this week?

I just realized the album dropped lmao

[tanooki]

Nov 9, 2018 17:50:10 GMT -5 @sklohiorawr said:

Nov 9, 2018 17:44:07 GMT -5 tanooki said:

Natural going top 10 this week?

I just realized the album dropped lmao

I normally wouldn't consider Imagine Dragons to be an "album bomb" kind of band due to their lack of solid streaming, but since Natural is already in the top 15, I think the additional streams and sales will indeed likely push Natural over the limit. I'd also expect Machine and Bad Liar to both chart, one of the two (or both) possibly in the top 40. And maybe Zero as well.

Natural was doing alright on streaming when it first dropped, I wonder if it'll come back. It has the radio and will probably have enough sales

[marc980]

Nov 9, 2018 17:44:07 GMT -5 tanooki said:

Natural going top 10 this week?

I just realized the album dropped lmao

I hope Natural cracks the top 10, despite it started to fall on radio. The top 10 is kinda weak now, so an album boost can help a lot. I can see Bad Liar and Machine debuting too, however on the lower half of the Hot 100, just like happened with some songs from Pray For The Wicked and Trench (the best comparisons I found this year). I expect to see one or two songs on Bubbling Under too.

[Deleted]

Nov 9, 2018 14:56:59 GMT -5 Kris said:

I miss when these topics were started when the airplay on the Monday was released.

Next week someone gonna post the 12/21/21 chart.

I like them starting early cuz it get confusing when people post about albums/song discounts that come out on Friday on a chart week that has nothing to do with those songs, it's makes it more organized imo

[jebsib]

This is far too confusing.

Years ago everyone frowned on this as the threads competed for several days each week.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

I find it a little weird that nobody talks about what the charts actually look like and instead talk about predictions and "does anybody think this will happen?!?" stuff. It's nice to know people care about what others think but sometimes it might better to talk about facts and stats first?

[tanooki]

Nov 9, 2018 20:25:17 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

I find it a little weird that nobody talks about what the charts actually look like and instead talk about predictions and "does anybody think this will happen?!?" stuff. It's nice to know people care about what others think but sometimes it might better to talk about facts and stats first?

I mean, with Natural all that can be done is speculate since no numbers are out yet

[rimetm]

I know a few users were taking the michael out of when I was starting the threads, but I feel like it's appropriate considering this is when the sales and streaming weeks get started and usually people are buzzing like bees about whatever the hot new thing is in the wrong thread. In fact, I'm surprised I've barely seen anyone mentioning "BAD" yet.

I do understand that perhaps the OP was a little less meaty than usual (though I will note that quite a few other Hot 100 threadstarters come with even less than that) and that may have made the earlier-than-average start seem toothless. I've updated and lengthened it out with observations from day 1 of sales and streams, so hopefully that helps tide things over.

[rockgolf]

Nov 9, 2018 14:46:23 GMT -5 @sklohiorawr said:

Nov 9, 2018 14:35:23 GMT -5 tanooki said:

This is the last week for the billboard year, right?

Yep. "Billboard's chart year runs from the first Billboard week of December to the final week in November, but because the Billboard week is dated in advance of publication, the last calendar week for which sales are counted is usually the third week in November."

...which means we are 7 days away from the first predictions of the top 100 of 2019.

:o

[badrobot]

The prediction threads were started precisely to move all this kind of guessing game stuff to one place and allow these threads to be based on reporting data.

But honestly at this point I think those of us looking for data and chart stats should give up on trying to steer these threads back to that. There are just too many people who prefer the 17 page back-and-forths.

[jtd Thee Stallion]

Lil Wayne rereleased What About Me f/ Post Malone & two more singles, Hasta La Vista & In This House f/ Gucci Mane.

[Enigma.]

I create this post just to include Drake in this thread so nobody will forget that Drake is best artist right now and streaming king.

[owenlovesmusic]

Ariana gets another 4m+ streaming day on Spotify!

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Nov 10, 2018 5:54:42 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

I create this post just to include Drake in this thread so nobody will forget that Drake is best artist right now and streaming king.

How can we forget him, when he's releasing 50 songs every year?

[kcdawg13]

Something I thought was interesting

The Beatles have 34 Top 10 hits and 20 #1's, which means 14 of their Top 10's peaked below the top spot. That's crazy to think about, because those 20 #1's are about 85 percent of their hits.

Compare this to Drake, who has 32 Top 10's and 6 #1 singles, those 6 songs don't really dent his Top 10's the same way The Beatles do.

[kierz7]

Nov 10, 2018 8:14:44 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Something I thought was interesting

The Beatles have 34 Top 10 hits and 20 #1's, which means 14 of their Top 10's peaked below the top spot. That's crazy to think about, because those 20 #1's are about 85 percent of their hits.

Compare this to Drake, who has 32 Top 10's and 6 #1 singles, those 6 songs don't really dent his Top 10's the same way The Beatles do.

Rihanna ranks much closer to the Beatles than Drake does. (+10 of Drakes overall Top Tens are from this year alone due to Streaming bombs and his outstanding features).

Rihanna has 14 #1's and 31 Top Tens. That's almost half of her total Top Tens.

On the other hand, Mariah Carey has 18 #1's and 29 Top Tens. That's more than half of her total amount.

Also, if Rihanna's next single goes to #1 she will TIE both the Beatles and Mariah Carey as the only artists to have 10 #1's and +20 Top Tens in a single decade.

[tanooki]

BAD gets 2.1 million streams on Spotify

Also noteworthy, Sex With My Ex by Lil Peep debuts at 31

[hot100predictions]

Nov 10, 2018 9:23:32 GMT -5 tanooki said:

BAD gets 2.1 million streams on Spotify

Also noteworthy, Sex With My Ex by Lil Peep debuts at 31

Heading for a top 10 debut!

[braveheart]

who will be Billboard's Year End Top Female ? Ariana or Cardi ?

[lostinhavana]

So does Happier still have a shot at the #1 spot?? It seems like ari is holding pretty well on streaming