HITS 7/31: Taylor Swift #1 844K [606K pure] Logic #2 211K

[strongerq]

hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=322438&title=TAYLOR-SET-FOR-BIGGEST-BOW-OF-THE-YEAR

TAYLOR SET FOR BIGGEST BOW OF THE YEAR

Only two weeks after Juice WRLD scored the biggest debut of 2020, Taylor Swift will assume that distinction as her surprise release, folklore (Republic), is tracking to a decidedly higher first week. With no physical albums in the market, digital downloads, on-demand audio streams and D2C are stepping up to fill the void.

Swift's first-day streaming numbers at Spotify broke records for most streams for a debut album and song ("the 1") by a female within the platform.

This projection has folklore on pace to be the biggest debut since Swift's 2019 bow for Lover.

Taylor Swift (Republic) 650k+ total activity, 450k+ albums
Logic (Def Jam) 75-85k, 17-21k

[Caviar]

Incredible numbers from Taylor.

[Wavey✨️]

Folklore Queen.

That's not bad for Logic!

[shayonce]

massive.

[owenlovesmusic]

Poor Logic

[fearlessarrow]

650k+ without physical copies? That is CRAZY.

[Mathgeek]

Jul 25, 2020 15:02:19 GMT -5 fearlessarrow said:

650k+ without physical copies? That is CRAZY.

She has physicals for sell on her website. 17 different album/vinyl bundles and yep, this is still crazy good numbers

[kanimal]

Jul 25, 2020 15:02:19 GMT -5 fearlessarrow said:

650k+ without physical copies? That is CRAZY.

It's not entirely without physical copies - as there are plenty of physicals available on Taylor's website, and they count twice (since they include a separate digital download - and Billboard's rule prohibiting that doesn't take effect until August). The main thing that's "missing" here is the assortment of Target collector's editions, which have historically been a major factor for Taylor (though if IIRC, not quite as much for Lover).

Now, don't get me wrong, the number is still phenomenal for 2020 - and would be even if there WERE Target editions available. I just wanted to point out that Hits' post is a bit misleading, as it treats D2C and physical as mutually exclusive.

[Enigma.]

Surely she'll get better streams than that! 200k is like Pop Smoke numbers.

[fearlessarrow]

Jul 25, 2020 15:08:50 GMT -5 kanimal said:

Jul 25, 2020 15:02:19 GMT -5 fearlessarrow said:

650k+ without physical copies? That is CRAZY.

It's not entirely without physical copies - as there are plenty of physicals available on Taylor's website, and they count twice (since they include a separate digital download - and Billboard's rule prohibiting that doesn't take effect until August). The main thing that's "missing" here is the assortment of Target collector's editions, which have historically been a major factor for Taylor (though if IIRC, not quite as much for Lover).

Now, don't get me wrong, the number is still phenomenal for 2020 - and would be even if there WERE Target editions available. I just wanted to point out that Hits' post is a bit misleading, as it treats D2C and physical as mutually exclusive.

Thanks for the explanation - so I think where I’m confused is whether the physicals sold through her website count towards this week or when they actually ship out. Is the 450k+ album number including the double counting that you mentioned?

[strongerq]

Jul 25, 2020 15:12:32 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Surely she'll get better streams than that! 200k is like Pop Smoke numbers.

IF the decrease daily (percentage wise) is the same as Lover & the Spotify vs total streaming ratio is the same as Lover.

folklore will end up with ~350M streams. Using the same free/paid ratio for Lover, that is 268K SEA.

[kanimal]

Jul 25, 2020 15:16:48 GMT -5 fearlessarrow said:

Jul 25, 2020 15:08:50 GMT -5 kanimal said:

It's not entirely without physical copies - as there are plenty of physicals available on Taylor's website, and they count twice (since they include a separate digital download - and Billboard's rule prohibiting that doesn't take effect until August). The main thing that's "missing" here is the assortment of Target collector's editions, which have historically been a major factor for Taylor (though if IIRC, not quite as much for Lover).

Now, don't get me wrong, the number is still phenomenal for 2020 - and would be even if there WERE Target editions available. I just wanted to point out that Hits' post is a bit misleading, as it treats D2C and physical as mutually exclusive.

Thanks for the explanation - so I think where I’m confused is whether the physicals sold through her website count towards this week or when they actually ship out. Is the 450k+ album number including the double counting that you mentioned?

The 450K+ number should theoretically account for all the eligible sales on her website, but there could be a huge margin of error as we don't know what D2C data Hits has at this point.

I'm actually not 100% sure on how the physical + digital sales get reported, and may have mis-"spoken" regarding the double counting. I know the digital album will count immediately, but I'm not sure if the separate physical copy counts at the time of purchase or at the time of shipping. But, either way, the fact that Taylor is still allowed to bundle the digital version means she'll get "credit" for those physical sales this week. That's one of the loopholes Billboard is eliminating next month.

[KeepDeanWeird]

Unlike the questionable physical products that have been promoted and cancelled, at least these will actually ship.

Will Target get an exclusive physical? More curious if bypassing retail stores completely or if only selling direct.

I don’t know why I’m ever surprised or impressed by TS’ sales. But it’s still kinda amazing how she delivers.

Now about those re-recording in November...lol

[Nick]

Incredible numbers considering this came out one day after she announced a new album.

[Eloqueen™]

Jul 25, 2020 15:06:37 GMT -5 Mathgeek said:

Jul 25, 2020 15:02:19 GMT -5 fearlessarrow said:

650k+ without physical copies? That is CRAZY.

She has physicals for sell on her website. 17 different album/vinyl bundles and yep, this is still crazy good numbers

Pretty sure they meant in stores. Not for purchase online.

Is the album even available at any retailer physically online or off? Like, is it solely available on her website? If so, even more impressive.

[NeRD]

Amazing numbers.

[HolidayGuy]

I don't believe the physical and digital bundled count as two copies? That would be a bit cray-cray, no?

In any event, fantastic projection of TS.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

In addition to the 8 deluxe CDs and 8 deluxe vinyl editions that come bundled with the digital standard version, there are merch digital album bundles, including one including a "cardigan". It appears the deluxe edition is only available in those physical bundle editions.

[HolidayGuy]

Yeah, though the multi-album bundles surely only count as one unit toward the sales total.

[shayonce]

Bundle sale is only counted as 1 sales, so Physical+Digital Bundle = 1 Digital Sales and done.
all of Taylor's physical versions are bundled with digital sales and will be counted as digital sales.

so far she has 17 versions (8 version for each CD/Vinyl and 1 for Cassette)
and 16 Merch bundles. 8 regular, 8 24~25 2 days exclusive, I guess she will release more soon.

Also note that the CD+Digital is only at $13 with free shipping over $50.
(Lover CD was $16.99 initially with free $5 target gift card for buying 4 versions.)

*Taylor released extra 8 merch bundles for 2 days exclusive.

[Eloqueen™]

Physical album sales (Target for instance) has long been her strength and bulk of album sales. Can't get over these numbers considering. I wonder what her numbers would look like outside this pandemic.

[forg]

Great numbers, I hope she can still sell 1M by the end of the year (pure sales). The physical format on her site is for 1 week only right? Maybe they'll go Target the week after (not all 17 variants I guess)

[shayonce]

Jul 25, 2020 22:44:48 GMT -5 Eloqueen™ said:

Physical album sales (Target for instance) has long been her strength and bulk of album sales. Can't get over these numbers considering. I wonder what her numbers would look like outside this pandemic.

I mean.. she's currently selling physical albums in her website with affordable price.

[shayonce]

Jul 25, 2020 22:59:37 GMT -5 forg said:

Great numbers, I hope she can still sell 1M by the end of the year (pure sales). The physical format on her site is for 1 week only right? Maybe they'll go Target the week after (not all 17 variants I guess)

version 2~7 CD/Vinyl is 1 week exclusive while version 1 of CD/Vinyl/Cassette is not.

[Future Captain]

I think this will trend upward to around 750k, but either way this is phenomenal numbers for her and further shows that she'll continue to thrive far into the streaming era and her 30s

[Eloqueen™]

Jul 25, 2020 23:10:53 GMT -5 shayonce said:

Jul 25, 2020 22:44:48 GMT -5 Eloqueen™ said:

Physical album sales (Target for instance) has long been her strength and bulk of album sales. Can't get over these numbers considering. I wonder what her numbers would look like outside this pandemic.

I mean.. she's currently selling physical albums in her website with affordable price.

Yes, on her website (with ridiculous shipping guidelines), which still isn't Target, or Walmart, or any physical retailer where people can pick up the album. What is your point? This album, undoubtedly, would have produced even bigger numbers had it been available across the board and received the same treatment as her previous releases.

[Future Captain]

I wonder if its possible for Lover to return to top 10 since its still in the 20s and I think it's getting a pretty significant boost from folklore

[wayneashleymusic]

Jul 25, 2020 14:56:41 GMT -5 owenlovesmusic said:

Poor Logic

Logic fans like me can celebrate the Number 1 Hip Hop / R&B album.  I'm sad for this to be his last project though.  

[Enigma.]

Haven't all rappers retired at some point and then come back?

[shayonce]

Jul 26, 2020 0:19:51 GMT -5 Eloqueen™ said:

Jul 25, 2020 23:10:53 GMT -5 shayonce said:

I mean.. she's currently selling physical albums in her website with affordable price.

Yes, on her website (with ridiculous shipping guidelines), which still isn't Target, or Walmart, or any physical retailer where people can pick up the album. What is your point? This album, undoubtedly, would have produced even bigger numbers had it been available across the board and received the same treatment as her previous releases.

we're in 2020, physicals are heavily(or extremely) driven by fans. I'm sure her fans have no problem buying from her website.
like.. lover(2019) sales were heavily driven by fans and bundles which is why it had big drops and low digital sales afterward.
and without massive bundles lover would've done around 500k. so she's not really losing big sales with this surprise release at all.