Hit vs. Flop: Defined by total audience impression

[Bob]

I think I've come up with a good system to define whether a not a song is a hit or a miss (keeping in mind that some songs function outside any quantitative measurements, at least as far as radio goes).

If, by the time a song is "done" (i.e. when it's not longer in the top 50 of any airplay charts) it hasn't passed 200 million total audience impressions, it's a flop, etc. etc.

<100 Million = total flop
100 - 200M = flop
200 - 300M = minor hit
300 - 500M = hit
500 - 800M = big hit
>800M = smash

Some songs actually end up with like 1.5 - 2 billion or more, those are mega hits.

[PaNdeM0niuM!]

Mariah Carey - It's Like That
741.129 million
its definitely heading for SMASH !!
;)

[Trebizond]

Are those numbers international? If not how can you have an audience of 800+ million in a country of less than 300 million? ??? How does the system work?

[kellydicted]

Trebizond said:

Are those numbers international?  If not how can you have an audience of 800+ million in a country of less than 300 million? ???  How does the system work?

It's cumulitive.

[Matt4319]

Nelly's "My Place" has 1.792 billion impressions. I'm not sure many would say that's a "mega hit".

[KikiMets]

And going by the current conversion rate in place on the Hot 100, how to measure a hit by digital downloads:

<50K = total flop
50 - 100K = flop
100 - 150K = minor hit
150 - 250K = hit
250 - 400K = big hit
>400K = smash

[jimmy74747]

I think it also depends on the artist. If 50 cent gets 300M of audience impression, I'd consider that a total flop. However, if a new r&b crooner (say someone in the style of a Johnny Gill) gets 300M of audience impression, its a very big hit.

[KikiMets]

jimmy74747 said:

I think it also depends on the artist.  If 50 cent gets 300M of audience impression, I'd consider that a total flop.  However, if a new r&b crooner (say someone in the style of a Johnny Gill) gets 300M of audience impression, its a very big hit.

Very good point. A 50 single could conceivably rack up 300 million in 2 weeks.

[Vanilla Bean]

Here's the scale i would use on Popular artists (50 Cent, Eminem, Nelly, Christina Aguilera, Jennifer Lopez, Kelly Clarkson, Britney Spears, Avril Lavigne, Beyonce, etc)


0-499 Million: Flop
500-1 Billion: Minor Hit
1 Billion-2 Billion: Hit
2 Billion-3 Billion: Smash
3 Billion +: Mega Smash

For example, let's look at Christina Aguilera's songs off of "Stripped". She released 5 singles, and here's where they all landed

Dirrty: 861.365 million (Minor Hit)
Beautiful: 3,738,748 billion (Mega Smash)
Fighter: 1,221,353 billion (Hit)
Can't Hold Us Down: 1,250,134 billion (Hit)
The Voice Within: 478.657 million (Flop)

[Bob]

hits are NOT that relative.

are you going to say that a one-hit wonder that gets 800M total airplay is a much bigger hit than an established artist that gets the same? is it going to be more memorable? no.

[Deleted]

No Bob.

[Love Plastic Love]

This seems to be weighted towards Rhy/Urban hits. I dont think you can just look at audience numbers and have a cut off point to say something is a hit or flop. SO many different factors go into it...

[Love Plastic Love]

Bob said:

(keeping in mind that some songs function outside any quantitative measurements, at least as far as radio goes).
.

Ok nevermind-that kind of speaks to what I said haha.

[laguy03]

Wow! Ciara's "Goodies" have 3.4 billion right now and gaining about 17 million this week alone! :o

[voir c'est croire]

can someone explain how they do this system. i enver got what it was. is it like how many people have listened to the song total? and how do they tell?

[ingrownhairdyke]

Xtina "BEAUTIFUL" was last in the 3 billion #'s heading 4 the 4 billion range!! :o Is that the biggest audience impression song or is there one w/over 4 billion already

[bluenote]

Sorry to break it to ya, but a flop for an established artist is pretty much anything that doesnt at least hit top 20-40 on the hot 100 and that depends on the previous track record. An artist pretty much defines their own rules for what is or isnt a flop for them.

[ingrownhairdyke]

so "THE VOICE WITHIN" wasnt a flop..! it hit #33 or #35 not sure which one.. y did ppl make it out 2 be such a huge flop? ??? Also which is the song w/the most audience impression ever.. is there a song over 4 billion?

[bluenote]

ingrownhairdyke said:

so "THE VOICE WITHIN" wasnt a flop..! it hit #33 or #35 not sure which one.. y did ppl make it out 2 be such a huge flop? ??? Also which is the song w/the most audience impression ever.. is there a song over 4 billion?

Well it also depends on where it peaked at on her core format which is pop. Certain artists who establish themselves as hit makers are held to a higher standard of performance. "the voice within" was a flop compared to "beautiful" and "cant hold us down" but it wasnt the biggest flop ever. Also, it was her 5th single so it wasnt really expected to do as well as her other singles.

[britrocks16]

ingrownhairdyke said:

so "THE VOICE WITHIN" wasnt a flop..! it hit #33 or #35 not sure which one.. y did ppl make it out 2 be such a huge flop? ??? Also which is the song w/the most audience impression ever.. is there a song over 4 billion?

uhh....there are soo many songs over 4 billion. For example, Ushers Yeah is about 5.5 billion. 50's In da club is also around there. There are many many many many songs over 4 billion.

[Vanilla Bean]

Britrocks16 said:

uhh....there are soo many songs over 4 billion. For example, Ushers Yeah is about 5.5 billion. 50's In da club is also around there. There are many many many many songs over 4 billion.

There are many, but not many many many many. Stop trying to belittle Christina.

[Love Plastic Love]

Iced said:

There are many, but not many many many many. Stop trying to belittle Christina.

lol-I dont think she/he is one of those people who feels like they constantly have to praise Britney and bash or belittle everyone else, but she/he did make it sound like pretty much every song is over 4 billion in audience
I dont think a handful really means manyX4 or 5

[britrocks16]

Love said:

lol-I dont think she/he is one of those people who feels like they constantly have to praise Britney and bash or belittle everyone else, but she/he did make it sound like pretty much every song is over 4 billion in audience
I dont think a handful really means manyX4 or 5

lol, i was just saying that pretty much every song that has hit #1 on the hot 100 in the past 2-3 years is over 4 billion.

[Matt4319]

Santana's "Smooth"

7,789,596,000 impressions

[britrocks16]

Matt4319 said:

Santana's "Smooth"

7,789,596,000 impressions

:o :o :o :o Songs like How You Remind Me are also like that.

[britrocks16]

Iced said:

There are many, but not many many many many. Stop trying to belittle Christina.

lol im not belittling christina, im a fan of hers im just saying....Beautiful was HUGE.

[Bob]

Bob said:

I think I've come up with a good system to define whether a not a song is a hit or a miss (keeping in mind that some songs function outside any quantitative measurements, at least as far as radio goes).

If, by the time a song is "done" (i.e. when it's not longer in the top 50 of any airplay charts) it hasn't passed 200 million total audience impressions, it's a flop, etc. etc.

<100 Million = total flop
100 - 200M = flop
200 - 300M = minor hit
300 - 500M = hit
500 - 800M = big hit
>800M = smash

Some songs actually end up with like 1.5 - 2 billion or more, those are mega hits.

You're all ignoring that part--- A song may have "only" reached 500M in the time it was actually on the charts, and then hit a billion later.

[Matt4319]

I still think your numbers are too low, Bob. Mario's "Let Me Love You" is #19 on Pop and Rhythmic (about to go recurrent) and is already at 3.8 billion. If you want to call that a mega hit, that's fine, but 3-4 billion should be a mega hit, 1.5-2 billion a smash, etc.

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Velvet_Rope_Burn said:

Well it also depends on where it peaked at on her core format which is pop.  Certain artists who establish themselves as hit makers are held to a higher standard of performance.  "the voice within" was a flop compared to "beautiful" and "cant hold us down" but it wasnt the biggest flop ever.  Also, it was her 5th single so it wasnt really expected to do as well as her other singles.

The general public does not think like this. Generally, if an artist is in the top 40 and has about the average longevity its a hit. Only the critics make the distinction of ohhh it must be a flop because every their 6th song only went to #9 when their last 5 songs went to #1.

[ingrownhairdyke]

anybody know how much the following songs have:

Genie in a Bottle
What a Girl Wants
I turn to you
Come on Over Baby(All I want is you)
Nobody Wants to be Lonely
Lady Marmalade

thanx