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Post by Nic (Britney Spears) on Jan 12, 2011 12:40:47 GMT -5
remember iTunes account for 70% and HIAM is available on iTunes only so you gotta have 250K * 0.7 before you devided it into 7 and plus she only have 6 days of sales from Monday - Sunday Then with my numbers HIAM has sold 'at least' 72k copies yesterday. However a lot of the other 30% who can't get it elsewhere will spill into itunes so that 72k is the most conservative the number can get. If we use less conservative numbers (pop bars = 3.5, Bruno's estimated sales = 300,00) we'd get a larger number) = 105k and without the iTunes multiplier is 150k. So really, Britney's first day is pretty broad. 72k to 150k. I'll be modest and say 100k.
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Post by Nic (Britney Spears) on Jan 12, 2011 12:32:43 GMT -5
if she remains this lead by the end of tonight she'll have sold 210,000 -- i don't think she'll retain this lead though.
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Post by Nic (Britney Spears) on Jan 12, 2011 12:29:17 GMT -5
I think "The One That Got Away"...idk they are both 2 of my favorite songs of last year.
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Post by Nic (Britney Spears) on Jan 12, 2011 12:23:06 GMT -5
well it sold easily over 100,000 units in the first day. with 6 more days to sell, i don't see why i couldn't sell 250,000 more. He talked about 250 pages for HIAM thread not 250k for HIAM first week sales Actually I was talking about how people were complaining about her pop bars slipping. I was just saying she had a ridiculous first day and sold 1/3 or so of what she needed to already in the first day and had 5 more
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Post by Nic (Britney Spears) on Jan 12, 2011 12:20:30 GMT -5
well it sold easily over 100,000 units in the first day. with 6 more days to sell, i don't see why i couldn't sell 250,000 more. source?! it really sold 100,000 first day? :o Well I'm just doing math. If the pop bars are for a 24 hour period, and Bruno is selling approx. 250,000 a week (which is conservative), divided by 7 would equal Grenade selling 36,000 a day. Britney's pop bars were over 3 times that, so multiple Bruno's one day number by 3 and you get 108,000.
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Post by Nic (Britney Spears) on Jan 12, 2011 12:15:13 GMT -5
well it sold easily over 100,000 units in the first day. with 6 more days to sell, i don't see why i couldn't sell 250,000 more.
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Post by Nic (Britney Spears) on Jan 12, 2011 11:46:52 GMT -5
No, there have been many songs to accomplish this. but i think she will be the first woman to make it... and also this will; be the highest female debut ever multiple Japanese acts debuted at #1 on the World Chart this year including the all female group AKB48 "Everybody Hurts" by Helping Haiti debuted at #1 last year "Troublemaker" by Arashi debuted at #1 last year "Not Afraid" by Eminem debuted at #1 last year "Beginner" by AKB48 debuted at #1 last year Before last year only 2 songs ever debuted at #1 on the UWC.
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Post by Nic (Britney Spears) on Jan 11, 2011 21:57:31 GMT -5
Where's the option for Britney's Lucky?????
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Post by Nic (Britney Spears) on Jan 11, 2011 13:21:28 GMT -5
but if Grenade's is over 72 hours, then we can assume that it's 3/7 of it's sales for the week it's displaying (essentially), so assuming it's on track to sell 240,000 copies the next week, it's "showing" us about 100,000 of those sales. So Hold It Against Me's pop bars are twice that...so does that mean HIAM has already sold 200,000 units?
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Post by Nic (Britney Spears) on Jan 11, 2011 12:56:27 GMT -5
Quick, someone get me my chill pills, I'm going to need them right about now. AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH THAT IS EPIC. It will EASILY do 1.5 the sales of Grenade if it keeps it up (Double the bar doesn't mean double the sales since HIAM wasn't up for sale on Monday). And it hasn't even been out for 14 hours yet. #1 is so close I can smell it. How much time is taken into account for pop bars?
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Post by Nic (Britney Spears) on Jan 11, 2011 10:37:19 GMT -5
'Yesterday' refers to the update just posted. 'Today' refers to the update you'll get tomorrow (tomorrow's update showing today's airplay) Are you able to get the RHY and HOT AC updates?
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Post by Nic (Britney Spears) on Jan 11, 2011 10:01:54 GMT -5
what was it's Hot AC / RHY update???
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Post by Nic (Britney Spears) on Jan 11, 2011 2:02:25 GMT -5
It all depends on radio airplay and such. We have NO idea how much AI it will have. It will probably have somewhere between 30 M and 50 M by the end of the week, but doesn't airplay chart Thursday - Wednesday? If that's the case it could end up with over 70 M by that time. There's a lot to take into account. XD I think 30 to 40 mil AI is a realistic figure to look forward to. There's no way it's gonna get anywhere close to 70mil AI, lol, considering her biggest airplay hits peaked just above 70mil AI. By the looks of it she's going to get support from more formats this go around, so I'm certainly expecting this to get much higher than her previous hits.
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Post by Nic (Britney Spears) on Jan 11, 2011 2:01:11 GMT -5
I did some research. The earliest post I found in the 'Mine' thread indicated that it was up on iTunes as early as 4:52PM. The first post indicating that 'Mine' had hit #1 was at 10:58PM. That would make it 6 hours and 6 minutes. I'm assuming that 'Mine' hit #1 in a little less than six hours, still qualifying as "five hours" I guess. Hope that clears some things up for everybody. :) Any new updates!? Also guys, all of the Britney discussion can go in her thread, just keep the iTunes position stuff in here. Thank you! :) put it in the burn book first post.
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Post by Nic (Britney Spears) on Jan 11, 2011 1:59:32 GMT -5
there is no way it's gonna be at 50 million AI by the end of the week. That's like a +8 million per day. Rihanna has been getting +8 millions per day with a whole lot less room to grow. If Rhythmic and Hot AC keep supporting the song like they have, this might be able to blast up to 50m
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Post by Nic (Britney Spears) on Jan 11, 2011 1:55:45 GMT -5
No we did not lol. I was in Clifton, NJ. EDIT: actually i was at the Applebees in Kearny NJ.
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Post by Nic (Britney Spears) on Jan 11, 2011 1:50:46 GMT -5
It all depends on radio airplay and such. We have NO idea how much AI it will have. It will probably have somewhere between 30 M and 50 M by the end of the week, but doesn't airplay chart Thursday - Wednesday? If that's the case it could end up with over 70 M by that time.
There's a lot to take into account. XD
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Post by Nic (Britney Spears) on Jan 11, 2011 1:43:08 GMT -5
#44 - Britney Spears - Hold It Against Me (124 minutes after release, 64 from Midnight) #35 - Britney Spears - Hold It Against Me (133 minutes after release, 73 from Midnight) +9 minutes +9 positions #29 - Britney Spears - Hold It Against Me (140 minutes after release, 80 from Midnight) +7 minutes +6 positions #21 - Britney Spears - Hold It Against Me (144 minutes after release, 84 from Midnight) +4 minutes +8 positions #16 - Britney Spears - Hold It Against Me (160 minutes after release, 100 from midnight) +16 minutes +5 positions
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Post by Nic (Britney Spears) on Jan 11, 2011 1:38:24 GMT -5
Showing up @ #14 on my iTunes. - 155 minutes from 11PM
- 95 minutes after midnight
are you going by Pop or Overall?
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Post by Nic (Britney Spears) on Jan 11, 2011 1:31:53 GMT -5
Nic, just for reference put an asterisk on the time and just note the time from 12 AM as well. I'm saying that just so we have both times when we dig up this thread later on. Yeah i'm gonna make a list which has both times.
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Post by Nic (Britney Spears) on Jan 11, 2011 1:27:48 GMT -5
#21 - Britney Spears - Hold It Against Me - 144 minutes after release
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Post by Nic (Britney Spears) on Jan 11, 2011 1:24:08 GMT -5
#29 - Britney Spears - Hold It Against Me - 140 minutes after release
Britney took somewhere between 124 and 133 minutes to crack Top 40. Two hours ain't bad. 2 and a third to get Top 30. When are you counting the time from? I think we should use the official release time of 12 AM since that's when the link went up on the front page. Haven't we been able to purchase it since a 11PM, though? Also she's currently averaging just under 1 position per minute for the last 15 minutes
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Post by Nic (Britney Spears) on Jan 11, 2011 1:21:33 GMT -5
#29 - Britney Spears - Hold It Against Me - 140 minutes after release
Britney took somewhere between 124 and 133 minutes to crack Top 40. Two hours ain't bad. 2 and a third to get Top 30.
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Post by Nic (Britney Spears) on Jan 11, 2011 1:17:57 GMT -5
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Post by Nic (Britney Spears) on Jan 11, 2011 1:13:19 GMT -5
#35 - Britney Spears - Hold It Against Me - 133 minutes after release
i'm totes going to sleep now though, so i can't do this anymore tonight D:
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Post by Nic (Britney Spears) on Jan 11, 2011 1:11:37 GMT -5
Thanks for actually listening to me instead of ignoring my posts, Nico. People don't realize how horrible it is waking up and reading through PAGES of iTunes updates for news/radio spins/etc. I think in the first post you should archive some of this information (i.e. how long it takes songs to reach a certain position, etc) it'd be a really useful resource in the future. =]
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Post by Nic (Britney Spears) on Jan 11, 2011 1:04:26 GMT -5
#44 - Britney Spears - Hold It Against Me - 124 minutes after release
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Post by Nic (Britney Spears) on Jan 11, 2011 0:05:07 GMT -5
Cannot be f'd scouring thru the stanning, so can someone plz tell me if this is worth checking out? How's it compare to the singles of Circus, etc?
??? YES.
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Post by Nic (Britney Spears) on Jan 10, 2011 23:28:02 GMT -5
01 01 01 NATALIA KILLS Mirrors 35 17 02 AYUMI HAMASAKI Love Song 06 05 03 AYUMI HAMASAKI Last Angel 05 04 04 DEV Bass Down Low 03 02 05 LIGHTS My Boots 23 08 06 KE$HA Blow 02 03 07 KE$HA Take It Off --- 38 08 ROBYN Criminal Intent 10 07 09 JADE VALERIE Don't Tell Me I'm Wrong 21 10 10 ALEXANDRA BURKE The Silence 17 13 11 NAOYA URATA & AYUMI HAMASAKI Dream On --- 24 12 P!NK f**kin' Perfect 04 06 13 JLS Love You More 26 18 14 TAYLOR SWIFT Back To December 08 11 15 KATY PERRY Firework --- 35 16 KATY PERRY E.T. 07 12 17 CHERYL COLE The Flood 09 09 18 NATASHA BEDINGFIELD Strip Me 15 14 19 NICKI MINAJ Roman's Revenge 11 16 20 KE$HA We R Who We R 12 15 21 NATALIA KILLS Love Is A Suicide 38 30 22 TAIO CRUZ & KYLIE MINOGUE Higher 13 19 23 P!NK Raise Your Glass 29 25 24 T.I. & CHRISTINA AGUILERA Castle Walls 18 20 25 FAR EAST MOVEMENT Like A G6 19 21 26 RIHANNA What's My Name 16 26 27 KE$HA The Harold Song 22 27 28 KE$HA Crazy Beautiful Life 24 28 29 ALAN Kanashimi wa Yuki ni Nemuru --- --- 30 SUGARLAND Stuck Like Glue 14 22 31 KE$HA Cannibal 27 31 32 NICOLE SCHERZINGER Poison --- --- 33 AVRIL LAVIGNE What The Hell 31 34 34 RIHANNA S&M 20 23 35 KE$HA Sleazy --- 32 36 TAIO CRUZ Dynamite 30 36 37 ONEREPUBLIC Good Life 34 33 38 CHERYL COLE Fight For This Love --- --- 39 MIWA Otoshimono 25 29 40 FEFE DOBSON Stuttering
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Post by Nic (Britney Spears) on Jan 10, 2011 23:22:17 GMT -5
I really like that line..
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