lugus15
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Post by lugus15 on Sept 15, 2010 23:05:52 GMT -5
3 4 KATY PERRY TEENAGE DREAM 58666 339179 Not trying to shade Katy, but I do think this album will struggle to go Platinum (and probably will only match the sales of OOTB tops). Honestly, with the following months very full of female Pop new releases (Rihanna, Kesha's rerelease, etc.) I don't think her mediocre tracks of her album will do that much.... let's see. |
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Post by Push The Button on Sept 15, 2010 23:17:18 GMT -5
Yay! Gaga is only 250k away from 4 million.
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Cerbius
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Post by Cerbius on Sept 15, 2010 23:22:56 GMT -5
Yay! Gaga is only 250k away from 4 million. Should pass 4 million in December. :) |
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3m3r7c
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Post by 3m3r7c on Sept 15, 2010 23:24:40 GMT -5
"Em is now 109,305 copies away from Lady A. Should pass them in 4 weeks tops."
With the gap only being 110k and him selling 63k more than them this week, I am guessing around 2 weeks from now they will be at par (if his sales hold up around 80k next week, they will have push from the VMA performance and 2 big shows in new york).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 15, 2010 23:28:10 GMT -5
Regardless of who sells more in the Eminem vs Lady Antebellum race there is still a reasonable chance the #1 album of the year hasn't even been released yet
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 15, 2010 23:32:47 GMT -5
3 4 KATY PERRY TEENAGE DREAM 58666 339179 Not trying to shade Katy, but I do think this album will struggle to go Platinum (and probably will only match the sales of OOTB tops). Honestly, with the following months very full of female Pop new releases (Rihanna, Kesha's rerelease, etc.) I don't think her mediocre tracks of her album will do that much.... let's see. I think so too. CG and TD will be the album's biggest hits so Idk.....she will probably take a while. The holidays will help her out a lot but overall, I see it performing similarly to Kelly Clarkson's last album sales-wise. |
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Cerbius
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Post by Cerbius on Sept 15, 2010 23:35:43 GMT -5
Regardless of who sells more in the Eminem vs Lady Antebellum race there is still a reasonable chance the #1 album of the year hasn't even been released yet IMO Eminem has the #1 album on lock. I mean, at this rate he's going, Recovery will be nearing 4 million by early January of next year. It'd be awfully hard for any act to sell that much in the holiday season. I mean, Susan Boyle only managed to sell 3.2 million despite unbelievable sales. However, I believe there is a good chance for the #2 position to be challenged as Lady A will only be nearing 3 million by the end of the year. We'll see, I guess. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 15, 2010 23:47:50 GMT -5
2 of the last 3 years, one of the top 2 albums was released in late October or later (and in each case #1 wasn't decided until the last week)
Album sales are weighted to the point where they all come in the 4th quarter
As new albums come in, Eminem's album will drift downward, 3 million may be the target number whuch is easily achieved by a hot selling holiday album
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Cerbius
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Post by Cerbius on Sept 15, 2010 23:51:36 GMT -5
Well Recovery will likely be well-past 3 million (and in fact closer to 4 million) by then. I may be wrong and there may be an album even bigger than Noel/I Dreamed A Dream that can potentially challenge Eminem for the #1 spot. I doubt it, though.
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lugus15
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Post by lugus15 on Sept 15, 2010 23:52:56 GMT -5
He will easily pass the 3m mark before the holidays IMO, and probably will be at around 3.5 when the last week comes.
I say Em has the #1 album (sales wise) of the year.
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3m3r7c
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Post by 3m3r7c on Sept 15, 2010 23:53:14 GMT -5
Eminem should easily outsell 3 million by the end of the year i think at this rate...
In 5 weeks it seems certain he will have crossed 2.8 million (just a 60k a week average) so that gives him 2 and a half months to sell 200k...plus with the holiday season coming in his sales will probably remain fairly constant.
I dont see any other album clearing 3.5 million, and i think that is what they will need to come close to to pass eminem.
Swift is the only one i see having a chance
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2010 0:01:55 GMT -5
To get to 4.0 by 12/31 it needs 100,000 per week. It is not doing that now.
If it gets 80,000/week (the level this week) you still have 7 weeks to 3.0. There are 16 weeks left in the year. That would leave it 9 more to get to 4.0
You are assuming that sales will not erode between now and then and that it will stay at or around 80K a week. A tough task witha ton of new albums hitting the market
3-3.5 is possible, not getting to 3 at all is also possible, upper 3's or 4 is going to assume that sales for this album will not fall from its current levels for the next 4 months
A hot album released in Otober or November could easily break 3.0
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Post by slicknickshady on Sept 16, 2010 0:02:54 GMT -5
Eminem has the #1 release of the year on lock. Who do you think 2m? Boyle? Kanye? Swift?
I don't see any that will sell at a better pace then Eminem has this year with Recovery.
Also to assume a hot album will even be released again this year is a little out there. If you assume that a hot release in November could be over 3 Million by the end of the year then i would say Recovery will sell really well during the holidays.
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lugus15
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Post by lugus15 on Sept 16, 2010 0:05:28 GMT -5
I don't think Taylor Swift's new album will break any sales records IMO
And Kanye will probably come very late in the year to be a contender.
I agree that Em has it on lock
Also, Boyle's album (no it's not) will probably just do what Bocelli did last year.
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3m3r7c
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Post by 3m3r7c on Sept 16, 2010 0:05:55 GMT -5
"3-3.5 is possible, not getting to 3 at all is also possible, upper 3's or 4 is going to assume that sales for this album will not fall from its current levels for the next 4 months"
I agree that 3-3.5 is possible, and that upper 3 or 4 is illogical, but to say not getting 3 is possible...I dont think so.
If he averages 30k a week he will hit 3 million by the end of the year. With holiday sales coming in and the fact that he is more than double 30k a week right now, i think it is practically impossible for recovery not to hit 3 million by the end of the year.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2010 0:08:04 GMT -5
Eminem has the #1 release of the year on lock. Who do you think 2m? Boyle? Kanye? Swift? I don't see any that will sell at a better pace then Eminem has this year with Recovery. It could be any one of those or someone you haven't even mentioned. Would you have thought Josh Groban or Susan Boyle, before they did whay they did? Eminem's 2010 total is tracking to the low 3 million range AT BEST. ANY album released in 4th quarter that catches fire can also do that. I know you live and breathe Eminem so you will naturally lock the year down with still nearly a third of the year left but I would say it is too soon to declare Eminem the winner |
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Post by slicknickshady on Sept 16, 2010 0:08:17 GMT -5
Seriously i'm racking my brain on anybody who could release an album in November this year that will go over 3,000,000 in 8 weeks. I can't think of any. Also Holiday sales will help Eminem out as well. So it's not only new releases that the holiday season helps.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2010 0:13:07 GMT -5
Seriously i'm racking my brain and anybody who could release an album in November this year that will go over 3,000,000 in 8 weeks. I can't think of any. Based on recent history it might very well be something that can't be predicted. I don't think anyone here would have predicted Josh Groban and Susan Boyle doing that in the 4th quarter. They are not mainstream pop artists and out of the scope of normal discussion here. Note: I agree, it is also possible that Eminem could finish at #1 but I am not ready to declare the year over just yet. |
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3m3r7c
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Post by 3m3r7c on Sept 16, 2010 0:14:20 GMT -5
'Eminem's 2010 total is tracking to the low 3 million range AT BEST"
You are lowballing hard.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2010 0:14:49 GMT -5
The 4th quarter brings out the seasonal music shoppers. If something resonates with that crowd, you can bet it will hit 3 million in a very short period.
That type of album may not be mainstream pop or anything that can be predicted
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Post by slicknickshady on Sept 16, 2010 0:15:18 GMT -5
Yeah, it could happen. If it does it will be a shocker. It's also possible Lady A could still get it. It's possible Recovery could only sell 40K next week. Who knows how long Em will be consistently over 40K from now through the holiday season. Could be 0, Could be 10, Could be More.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2010 0:16:39 GMT -5
'Eminem's 2010 total is tracking to the low 3 million range AT BEST" You are lowballing hard. Work the math, it needs 1 million to get to 3.5 It has to AVERAGE 62,500 for the next 16 weeks. It is at 80000 now and falling. You think it will average that for 4 months? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2010 0:18:37 GMT -5
I don't see any scenario where Eminem will exceed 3.5 by year end unless he wears a silver glove and does the moonwalk in front of a national audience
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lugus15
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Post by lugus15 on Sept 16, 2010 0:22:09 GMT -5
Seriously i'm racking my brain on anybody who could release an album in November this year that will go over 3,000,000 in 8 weeks. I can't think of any. Ditto. I think that Groban and Boyle were the exception of the rule. But doing a very mediocre and fast wikipedia search on coming albums let's analize: Linkin Park - Will struggle to reach 1m Brandon Flowers - Will flop miserably Maroon 5 - See Linkin Park JoJo - Will only see around 400k Bruno Mars and Ne-Yo - Will compeat with each other and only do what B.o.B. did Rihanna - Will do around what Rated R did Real contenders are: Swift Kings Of Leon Kid Rock Kanye Michael Jackson Boyle |
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3m3r7c
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Post by 3m3r7c on Sept 16, 2010 0:23:06 GMT -5
And to hit "only" 3 million it needs to sell average 30k for the next 4 months, judging by the staying power it has had and future single releases that is ridiculous.
If i had to place an estimate right now i would put it at 3.3 million by the end of the year, a total i do not see anybody else surpassing.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2010 0:25:09 GMT -5
Those albums attract mainstrem music buyers, if there is an album that also attracts non-mainstream buyers then that will hit 3 million in the 4th quarter
The Groban and Boyle albums brought in non-mainstream buyers that pushed them to that level
The non-mainstrem buyers are a bigger bunch than the mainstrem crowd
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2010 0:27:25 GMT -5
'Eminem's 2010 total is tracking to the low 3 million range AT BEST" You are lowballing hard. And to hit "only" 3 million it needs to sell average 30k for the next 4 months, judging by the staying power it has had and future single releases that is ridiculous. If i had to place an estimate right now i would put it at 3.3 million by the end of the year, a total i do not see anybody else surpassing. 3.3 is not high 3 million range it is low 3 million range, are you low balling now too? or are you agreeing with me ;) |
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lugus15
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Post by lugus15 on Sept 16, 2010 0:30:22 GMT -5
Those albums attract mainstrem music buyers, if there is an album that also attracts non-mainstream buyers then that will hit 3 million in the 4th quarter The Groban and Boyle albums brought in non-mainstream buyers that pushed them to that level The non-mainstrem buyers are a bigger bunch than the mainstrem crowd Actually I think the opposite is true. Groban attracted mainstream buyers by the Oprah exposure and Boyle, well she had been media hyped since very early in the year. I don't their circumstances are going to be repeated this year at all |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2010 0:30:32 GMT -5
2 albums in 3 years have come out of nowhere (from the Pulse perspective) to sell over 3 million in the 4th quarter. I am not predicting it will definitely happen again but I wouldn't rule it out either
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3m3r7c
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Post by 3m3r7c on Sept 16, 2010 0:33:04 GMT -5
'3.3 is not high 3 million range it is low 3 million range, are you low balling now too? or are you agreeing with me"
I figured by low 3 mill range you meant 3.0-3.1 or something like that.
I would myself consider 3.3 to be more mid-3 million range than low, but i stand with my 3.3 million whether that be looked at as mid 3's or low.
And i also stand by no album being able to clear 3.3 million, thus eminem having the best seller of 2010
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