Billboard 200: 9/25/10: Sara Bareilles #1: 90k

[Deleted]

Sept 16, 2010 0:30:22 GMT -5 lugus15 said:

Sept 16, 2010 0:25:09 GMT -5 @2m said:

Those albums attract mainstrem music buyers, if there is an album that also attracts non-mainstream buyers then that will hit 3 million in the 4th quarter

The Groban and Boyle albums brought in non-mainstream buyers that pushed them to that level

The non-mainstrem buyers are a bigger bunch than the mainstrem crowd

Actually I think the opposite is true. Groban attracted mainstream buyers by the Oprah exposure and Boyle, well she had been media hyped since very early in the year.

I don't their circumstances are going to be repeated this year at all

Their genres are not mainstrem pop, rap, country or anything that attracts regular music buyers. In both cases they turned into holiday shopping items from people who didn't buy music during the 1st three quarters

[Deleted]

Sept 16, 2010 0:33:04 GMT -5 3m3r7c said:

'3.3 is not high 3 million range it is low 3 million range, are you low balling now too? or are you agreeing with me"

I figured by low 3 mill range you meant 3.0-3.1 or something like that.

I would myself consider 3.3 to be more mid-3 million range than low, but i stand with my 3.3 million whether that be looked at as mid 3's or low.

And i also stand by no album being able to clear 3.3 million, thus eminem having the best seller of 2010

50,000 a week for 16 weeks might be tough too but we'll see. That will mean it will remain in the top 10 the rest of the year.

By the way, as we are declaring the year over in Spetember, the best selling album of 2010 to date is by Lady Antebellum, not Eminem.

I know Eminem will pass Lady Antebellum in 2-3 weeks but the point here is it might be a bit early to declare the year over, seeing as how there have been hot holiday sellers before and very well could be again.

[3m3r7c]

Nobody is declaring the year to be over. The phrase "16 weeks" has come up numerous times in this discussion, implying that all members involved are fully aware of the 16 weeks left in the year. It is a guess, an educated one. Clearly we will not know until late december for sure, and if a tight race comes up we may not know till the data is released in early january.

It is just a guess, a shot at predicting what the album will be.
My guess is eminem has it because of what i think he will finish off with and also seeing that i dont see any real stiff competition. But that is just my guess.

What would you (2m) guess if you had to, would you guess that eminem will finish off the year with the best seller, or would you guess that it will be somebody else?

Judging by eminems sales now, and the way the album has carried, and looking into the past couple of years how much the number 1 album has sold, to me the more logical (but not obvious seeing as there is still 16 weeks) answer would be eminem over some near future release.

[Deleted]

If the remaining 16 weeks produced numbers like the last 36 then I agree, Eminem will pass Lady Antebellum in 2 weeks and be the #1 album of the year


But the next 16 weeks are different as we all know. As I said a few times, in recent history 2 albums have hit 3 million in a very short period of time.

In my opinion, there are two and only two possibilities for #1:

1. Eminem - Recovery
2. An album that has not been released yet

If something magical happens with the Lady Antebellum album happens then that too but that would take a rather unusual event (like a death or something else) - so let's rule that one out. It is fair to say no CURRENT release will exceed Eminem's numbers.

A few years ago, I too would have declared Eminem a lock now but since hot 4th quarter sellers have hit these numbers twice in recent years, I can't rule out that possibilty from happening again

[3m3r7c]

Alright but say you had to pick, eminem or anybody else.

Let's say you had to place 1000 bucks on it.
Will the top seller be
a)Recovery
b)Somebody else

What do you pick?

[Deleted]

Sept 16, 2010 0:53:55 GMT -5 3m3r7c said:

Alright but say you had to pick, eminem or anybody else.

Let's say you had to place 1000 bucks on it.
Will the top seller be
a)Recovery
b)Somebody else

What do you pick?

I am not making a prediction. 2 of the last 3 years you wouldn't have gone wrong with b)

The point I want to make:

1. Eminem is the clear and obvious front runner based on current information
2. Eminem could very well have the #1 album of the year
3. Eminem is not yet a lock (based on what we saw in 2007 and 2009)

Putting emphasis on #3.
Too early to tell but not something to be ruled out

We could also see a year like 2008(where Lil Wayne was #1 for most of the year).

[3m3r7c]

Was taylor swift not the sales winner for 2009? That could have easily been tracked...

[Deleted]

Sept 16, 2010 1:05:47 GMT -5 3m3r7c said:

Was taylor swift not the sales winner for 2009? That could have easily been tracked...

That was not a lock though at all. That went down to the last week due to a Thanksgiving week release from Susan Boyle that no one expected to do that well.

1 more holiday week and that would have gone the other way

That is why I am lumping that into this discussion

[3m3r7c]

"I am not making a prediction. 2 of the last 3 years you wouldn't have gone wrong with b)"
This statement is clearly stating that 2 of the last 3 years an unexpected person had the top selling album, when the case is only true for one of the 3.

I get your point though it is to early to call.

[Deleted]

Sept 15, 2010 20:49:07 GMT -5 3m3r7c said:

30 16 MUMFORD & SONS SIGH NO MORE 15916 206516
4 18 RAY LAMONTAGNE & THE PARIAH DOGS GOD WILLING & THE CREEK DON'T RISE 15481 128214

New peak for M&S and another week at #1!

[Deleted]

Sept 16, 2010 1:05:47 GMT -5 3m3r7c said:

Was taylor swift not the sales winner for 2009? That could have easily been tracked...

Taylor Swift won 2009 by 100,000 copies

Susan Boyle had 5 straight weeks above 500,000 and very nearly caught up, it went down to the final week before Taylor Swift was declared the winner

Taylor Swift won 3.2 million to 3.1 million

The 3.1 million came from just 6 weeks.

If she had 7, 2009 would have gone to Susan Boyle.

[lugus15]

Ok, let's say that Em does 3.3m

Then if the album that has to beat it will have to make around 200,000 weekly if released today.

I'd say that (at the present week) Em has a very solid 75% of getting the #1 album of the year.

[fridayteenage]

Taylor Swift's Fearless tops the 6 million mark in sales this week. It's the first album to reach that level since Carrie Underwood's 2005 smash Some Hearts, which has since advanced to the 7 million mark. (It's up to 7,021,000.) Fearless won a Grammy for Album of the Year for 2009.

Whoo.

[devil]

Come on guys, how on earth could Eminem NOT reach 3 million by the years end? Even in this dreadful sales climate, from Thanksgiving weekend onwards so long as he is top 20/30 he'd still be managing around 30-40k a week. The likely scenario (given how he has held up so far) is he will easily be top 20, and potentially hitting 50-60k a week. Add to the fact he is still on 80k a week at the moment, surely in the next 15 odd weeks left he can easily pass 3 million. Surely a lock??

[Cerbius]

Sept 16, 2010 8:13:32 GMT -5 devil said:

Come on guys, how on earth could Eminem NOT reach 3 million by the years end? Even in this dreadful sales climate, from Thanksgiving weekend onwards so long as he is top 20/30 he'd still be managing around 30-40k a week. The likely scenario (given how he has held up so far) is he will easily be top 20, and potentially hitting 50-60k a week. Add to the fact he is still on 80k a week at the moment, surely in the next 15 odd weeks left he can easily pass 3 million. Surely a lock??

3 million is definitely a lock. I think, with the sales boost from holiday season, Eminem will likely pass 3.5 million as well.

[Deleted]

None of the major 4th quarter albums have hit the market as of yet. There is only so many albums people will buy in a week.

Part of Eminem's longevity thus far can be attributed to a weak release schedule. The schedule will change

[areyoureadytojump]

New RIAA certs:

Train Gold
Glee Vol. 1 1xp
Wicked 2xp

[zlodejko]

Does anybody knows Florence + The Machine's "Lungs" total sales?

[microcuts]

^
Florence is sitting probably somewhere between 125-150K. The total was 82,336 back at the first week of July. I haven't seen any numbers since then, so it's hard to say for sure, but the album's definitely getting a current boost.

[asg4]

Em is pretty much in lock.
Swift is so hyped just like katy and we know what happened there.
The only upset is if someone dies

[neverduplicated]

Sept 16, 2010 17:41:29 GMT -5 asg4 said:

Em is pretty much in lock.
Swift is so hyped just like katy and we know what happened there.
The only upset is if someone dies

Erm... Swift is much more than just hype. Her albums are quality front to back, unlike Katy's albums which have amazing singles and decent album track here and there, and the rest bland filler. Also, Taylor's first two album sit at about 5 million and 6 million sold, respectively. That's pretty amazing in any time period, but especially given the current sales climate. I'm not saying Taylor will beat out Eminem (the fact that "Mine" isn't exactly blowing up doesn't seem to be helping her at the moment), but she is a very real contender. I'd say will almost full confidence she'll have one of the top 5 selling albums of the year and a decent shot at the top.

[3m3r7c]

It would be a hell of a lot easier to tell who has potential for top 5's and 10's if we got the damn sales once in a while....ahh hopefully soon

[grandelf]

Sept 16, 2010 17:53:01 GMT -5 neverduplicated said:

Sept 16, 2010 17:41:29 GMT -5 asg4 said:

Em is pretty much in lock.
Swift is so hyped just like katy and we know what happened there.
The only upset is if someone dies

Erm... Swift is much more than just hype. Her albums are quality front to back, unlike Katy's albums which have amazing singles and decent album track here and there, and the rest bland filler. Also, Taylor's first two album sit at about 5 million and 6 million sold, respectively. That's pretty amazing in any time period, but especially given the current sales climate. I'm not saying Taylor will beat out Eminem (the fact that "Mine" isn't exactly blowing up doesn't seem to be helping her at the moment), but she is a very real contender. I'd say will almost full confidence she'll have one of the top 5 selling albums of the year and a decent shot at the top.

It has nothing to do with quality (the people who still spend on an album don't really judge the non-singles beforehand, they are just used to buy CDs, the majority of people who buy Katy's singles have no interest in having more songs, regardless if they are quality or not, which is a subjective opinion anyway), Taylor appeals to a more diverse crowd with the country connection.

It's more than likely though that she peaked in popularity and the album will be doing worse than Fearless, regardless of how her fans think it's 'quality front to back' but since she can be considered as established, she will still give Eminem a run for his money in total sales.

[Deleted]

Luck of the draw:

1st time since 2008 and second time in the Soundscan era that #1 and #200 have been by the same artist

[Hotlantan]

Sept 18, 2010 1:53:26 GMT -5 @2m said:

Luck of the draw:

1st time since 2008 and second time in the Soundscan era that #1 and #200 have been by the same artist

Who was the first/other? ???

[Deleted]

The Billboard 200 2008-10-18
1 1 Paper Trail, T.I.  1
200 RE-ENTRY 33 T.I. Vs T.I.P., T.I.  1

[Deleted]

Sept 15, 2010 10:28:54 GMT -5 Push The Button said:

Now guys, don't celebrate this #1. We all know that only Eminem is worthy of praise on this board.

Funny I thought it was only female singers who were worthy of praise on the Pulse board? ;)

[Deleted]

Eminem has earned her diva wings apparently ;)

[Deleted]

ALBUM SALES DIP; VMAS IMPACT; GAGA IS 'TITANIC'
September 25, 2010

KEITH CAULFIELD

Sara Bareilles scores her first No. 1 album—and best sales week—as her second album, "Kaleidoscope Heart," bows atop the chart with 90,000 sold, according to Nielsen SoundScan.

Bareilles' first set, "Little Voice," peaked at No. 7 in 2008. It has sold 997,000 in the United States.

Though Bareilles is one of four new entries in the top 10, expect the chart to get a lot more exciting in a week's time. That's when the biggest albums of the fall season will start hitting the chart. We're excepting big debuts from Linkin Park's "A Thousand Suns" and Trey Songz' "Passion, Pain & Pleasure," but there may be up to six new entries in the top 10.

Industry prognosticators suggest that "Suns" could sell as much as 250,000-260,000, which would normally be enough to lock down a No. 1 debut. However, Songz is nipping at Linkin Park's heels; his "Passion" album is looking to move between 230,000 and 250,000.

And those albums can't arrive any faster, either. Overall album sales for the chart week ending Sept. 12 totaled 4.8 million units—the lowest weekly sales figure since SoundScan began tracking sales in 1991. Last week's sum falls below the record low of 4.9 million, set only a month ago in the week ending Aug. 15.

you still want your mtv: Outside the top 10 of the Billboard 200, Florence & the Machine's "Lungs" vaults from No. 100 to No. 44 with 8,000 sold (up 70%—the chart's largest percentage gain).

The act was nominated for a number of MTV Video Music Awards (VMA) for its video "Dog Dogs Are Over" and performed the song on the Sept. 12 show. "Dog Days" also debuts at No. 52 on Hot Digital Songs, shifting 27,000 downloads (up 276%). Its sizable sales sum enables the tune to also bow at No. 93 on the Billboard Hot 100.

This isn't the first time Florence & the Machine have caused sales ripples after a buzzed-about awards show performance. On Feb. 16 at the BRIT Awards in London, the act's principal performer, Florence Welch, duetted with Dizzee Rascal on a mash-up of her "You Got the Love" and his "Dirtee Cash" titled "You Got the Dirtee Love." (Florence & the Machine's "Lungs" won the BRIT Award for best British album while Rascal took home the best British male prize.) The performance was so well-received that it was digitally released the next day and entered the Official Charts Co. singles tally at No. 2 the following week.

Because the VMAs took place on a Sunday night, and since SoundScan's sales tracking week ends at the close of business the same day, the show's impact on the charts is muted. Thus, any boost from the VMAs will be seen this week and next.

And it could be a very hearty boost, too. The VMAs attracted 11.4 million viewers, according to Nielsen, making it the most-watched show on the network since the 2002 awards show. Last year's VMAs brought in 9 million.

While perhaps comedian Chelsea Handler increased the eyeball count this year as host, I'm betting the real draw was Lady Gaga. The artist,who won eight VMAs, has single-handedly made people care about music videos again. That might sound hyperbolic, but according to video site Vevo, Gaga's 10 official clips (including featured turns on Beyoncé's "Video Phone" and Wale's "Chillin' ") have been viewed 726 million times. "Bad Romance" alone, which won video of the year, accounts for 278 million of those plays.

Gaga's impact on the show's ratings is similar to a blockbuster film reaping a bevy of Academy Award nominations and in turn boosts the ratings of the Oscars telecast. (The film awards earned their highest ratings in 1998—55.2 million—when "Titanic" won best picture.)



Christmas comes early? At No. 27 on the Billboard 200, Celtic Thunder's "Christmas/Celtic Thunder" debuts with 12,000 sold, according to Nielsen SoundScan. The set, released exclusively through QVC last week, packages the group's upcoming "Christmas" album (Oct. 12) with its self-titled 2008 release. This unique set will track separately from the forthcoming stand-alone "Christmas" album.

[grandelf]

^As if that many people tuned in to see all the awards handed to one person. What about Justin Bieber or the Taylor vs Kanye thing? It's hardly about "caring about music videos again"...