HDD 9/27-9/28: Zac Brown Band vs. Maroon 5

[Hook]

Sara Bareilles did 90k with a Top 5 Hot AC hit and virtually no CHR play. Maroon 5 is #1 at Hot AC and Top 10 at CHR. That's why I expected higher than 140-150k. Not even cracking 200k is really disappointing.

[Rumors]

Sept 22, 2010 17:46:36 GMT -5 Hook said:

Sara Bareilles did 90k with a Top 5 Hot AC hit and virtually no CHR play. Maroon 5 is #1 at Hot AC and Top 10 at CHR. That's why I expected higher than 140-150k. Not even cracking 200k is really disappointing.

Agree 100%. I could see a drop-off in the level of interest in this band on these boards and with the downloads of single #1, but I still thought they would sell over 200,000. I actually predicted 350,000. They have just wrapped up a tour or will soon and that got their name back out there already. This is an international group, though. I expect they are doing well around the world.

I think those are low numbers for ZBB for reasons already mentioned.

[Rumors]

And I think the numbers for Santana are okay with no single on the radio. Is the video done for the indie.arie collaboration. I really like what they did with While My Guitar Gently Weeps.

[Deleted]

The rest of the album is pretty good too

Naturally an album of classic rock covers stands little chance at top 40 radio

[Deleted]

While My Guitar Gently Weeps is getting played on AC

[pnobelysk]

Sept 22, 2010 15:18:50 GMT -5 tsw2008 said:

No mention of Shontelle ? yikes.

o god. last time her album didnt make top 100 . impossible did much better than t shirt but i guess theres almost no interest for her. she will prbly be dropped

[Wave.]

Wow at Maroon 5.That's crazy.

[weaver]

Sept 22, 2010 16:02:55 GMT -5 tsw2008 said:

Sept 22, 2010 15:37:44 GMT -5 areyoureadytojump said:

Disappointing. The music business is in trouble. Well, album sales.

Naw, just wait until the 4th quarter when all the big names release. I'm not sure why people expected much more for Maroon 5. Last time around they had a #1 smash to support the album.

This time around they have a #17. Selena ? what has she done to warrant higher sales ?, etc. Not sure about ZBB but I think they will sell consistently.

The thing about the chart positions of Makes Me Wonder vs. Misery is that, if I remember correctly, Makes Me Wonder had around 60 million impressions, which is about where Misery seems to be peaking. They just repressed Makes Me Wonder, while they released Misery to iTunes almost simultaneously w/ the radio release. Not sure how they compare in overall sales though.

Regardless, it's a shame the first week projections are so low- For me, Hands All Over is head and shoulders above It Won't Be Soon.

[Love Plastic Love]

I believe Makes Me Wonder was a bigger overall hit even though you are correct that the billboard numbers are a tad deceiving. They also had more momentum going into Makes Me Wonder. I like M5, but to be very frank they need a better song to reignite their fanbase. Misery, even though I liked it, is just an ok song. One you hear and then shrug and forget about in the next couple minutes. It was never going to set a fire under the band. I also think they need a better video/promotional scheme. I feel like no one even realizes an M5 cd has been released.
I hope it isn't over for their success-I feel like they have a lot of unrealized potential/great cds left in them.

[street]

Thank God the Queen of Pop, Susan Boyle is putting out a Xmas album to save the music industry. Currently #1 on Amazon, naturally.

[vandj4ever]

Sept 22, 2010 22:47:08 GMT -5 street said:

Thank God the Queen of Pop, Susan Boyle is putting out a Xmas album to save the music industry. Currently #1 on Amazon, naturally.

Go Susan!

I expected a bit better but I'm not too suprised by M5. ZBB does surprise me. I thought they had developed a stronger country base then that.

[Deleted]

Country fans may not buy the album on the first day

[d.t.m]

It's so sad to see Maroon 5 fall off so much.

[Diego]

Horrible sales for Maroon 5. This is quite worrying - too many big acts seem to be under-performing by substantial amounts this year. I hope they get the #1!

[asg4]

Sept 23, 2010 4:14:01 GMT -5 Diego said:

Horrible sales for Maroon 5. This is quite worrying - too many big acts seem to be under-performing by substantial amounts this year. I hope they get the #1!

i love m5 i wish they had higher numbers

[tinawina]

Zac Brown is fine. They will do great in the long run.

Not too surprised by Maroon 5, even if I did think it would be a little higher. Their lead single is getting a decent amount of airplay but it hasn't really been selling fantastically, and there isn't a lot of excitement about it. The tour was only doing okay too, right? No one stays on top forever. But they will have a long career regardless.

Selena didn't really have a big smash last time around, right? Only a big hit for a Disney act that's not Miley. So I don't know how many people she's really grabbed outside of that market.

[kt1990]

I hope Maroon 5's album has legs. It's also underperforming in the UK , so I hope they can still sustain their worldwide relevance....

[tsw2008]

Sept 23, 2010 4:14:01 GMT -5 Diego said:

Horrible sales for Maroon 5. This is quite worrying - too many big acts seem to be under-performing by substantial amounts this year. I hope they get the #1!

Maybe it's because some of those big acts are releasing substandard material ? Or maybe those "big acts" are not so big anymore ?

Pop is a very fickle genre, you gotta be constantly in the spotlight, constantly releasing something to keep the momentum going.

[badrobot]

We've seen very few examples of artists outperforming expectations, so I don't know why every week everyone is SHOCKED at low sales.

Eminem and Trey Songz both did better than expected, but who else has?

If Katy Perry couldn't even do 200k with two massive hits, not sure how people expected Maroon 5 to do better with a much smaller hit.

[tsw2008]

People need to readjust their expectations, especially for pop artists. You can still sell shitload of albums with the right material. Eminem and Trey Songz are not pop artists, they appeal to more than pop tarts.

[Deleted]

The previous Maroon 5 album had a strong lead single. This one doesn't

[badrobot]

Sept 23, 2010 10:04:14 GMT -5 wallace said:

Sept 23, 2010 9:35:10 GMT -5 badrobot said:

If Katy Perry couldn't even do 200k with two massive hits, not sure how people expected Maroon 5 to do better with a much smaller hit.

Because Katy was coming off an album that sold 47k its opening week, and Maroon 5 was coming off one that sold 429k its opening week. We expected that M5 would sustain more of its existing album-buying fanbase. I'd expected Katy to do a little better too, but she still hasn't really established herself as an album rather than singles seller.

You can't compare a debut album's opening week to the opening week of an established artist.

[badrobot]

Well, Maroon 5's last album was their sophomore effort, so they were in the same spot at the time that Katy is in now.

Regardless I think many people here look far too much at previous sales when they are making predictions. People have short memories and if they are not interested in you at the moment, they are not going to spend money on you now just because they did in the past. You have to constantly prove yourself.

Maroon 5 did not prove themselves very relevant this time around. Same with Linkin Park last week and Christina Aguilera earlier this year. All are selling about a third of what they did last time in their debut weeks.

[singingsparrow]

I was expecting more from both artists, though I'm not surprised at the sharp decline for Maroon 5's figures.

My bet is that the Zac Brown Band will surpass expectations and sell closer to 200K. I admit to having overreached in my initial prediction (305K)......................where I acknowledged then that the band has yet to demonstrate it can inspire a robust opening-week draw, and also that many listeners are still caught up in a "The Foundation" mindset with "Free" feeling as though it had just peaked yesterday..............but I do believe they are on fire at the moment regardless and they'll exceed estimates.

With Maroon 5, I'm not surprised, due to the fact that "Misery" has had underwhelming digital sales and the band is experiencing a significantly diminished touring draw as well. Still, I thought they'd draw about 200K in the first week before experiencing a two-thirds decline the following week.

These figures also again reiterate how surprising it is that "Misery" has performed as well as it has as a radio single despite its lukewarm digital run and coming off of the heels of two underachieving singles............especially when you compare this record to Rob Thomas' "cradlesong", which sold about 122,000 copies its first week out, with "Her Diamonds" garnering not even a half of the airplay "Misery" has on the Mainstream Top 40.

I still can't help but cynically think the radio success of "Misery" was nothing but a payola-induced fluke when both the underwhelming digital figures (even in the first couple of weeks of its release) and the weak reception the latter half of the "It Won't Be Soon Before Long" received is taken into consideration.

Given the mediocre reviews in particular, it won't be surprising to see "Hands All Over" struggle to even go Gold this era in spite of a successful lead radio single. "cradlesong" only sold slightly less its first week of release with much less of a radio presence despite great reviews, and hasn't quite reached Gold status yet.

Namaste,
Lisping Hibiscus

[Glove Slap]

I'm not surprised by Maroon 5's numbers. Ever since their last album dropped, it feels like their popularity has fallen a bit day by day to the present point.

I expected ZBB to get around 250k with the fanbase that they had cultivated through touring, but they should have good longevity. It does make me wonder what Lady A would have opened with if they had dropped Need You Now as the title track was entering top 10 on Country though.

[singingsparrow]

Sept 23, 2010 16:19:11 GMT -5 Glove Slap said:

I'm not surprised by Maroon 5's numbers. Ever since their last album dropped, it feels like their popularity has fallen a bit day by day to the present point.

I expected ZBB to get around 250k with the fanbase that they had cultivated through touring, but they should have good longevity. It does make me wonder what Lady A would have opened with if they had dropped Need You Now as the title track was entering top 10 on Country though.

Lady Antebellum and the Zac Brown Band appeal to considerably different groups of listeners though.

I really don't think they're the fairest comparison to make. I think Lady Antebellum is much more likely to appeal to many of the same fans who have been won over by Taylor Swift, while the Zac Brown Band is more likely to appeal to those who have tastes bordering more on alternative country, folk and adult alternative, as well as benefiting from their broad mainstream country presence.

Namaste,
Lisping Hibiscus

[d.t.m]

I think it's ironic that both bands won BNA and are duking it out for #1 with so-so sales.

[love456]

In yet another close call this week, it appears that Zac Brown Band and Maroon 5 will battle it out for #1 on next week's chart. Also, Eminem's Recovery officially becomes the best-selling album of the year with a total of 2.656m vs. Lady Antebellum's "Need You Now" with 2.641m (US)

Congraz!

[Cerbius]

YOUR FACEBOOK-LESS WEAKEND CHART PREVIEW

In yet another close call this week, it appears that Zac Brown Band and Maroon 5 will battle it out for #1 on next week's chart. Also, Eminem's Recovery officially becomes the best-selling album of the year with a total of 2.656m vs. Lady Antebellum's "Need You Now" with 2.641m. For what it's worth, last year at this time didn't look too much better than this week. For the week ending 9/27/09, Pearl Jam's Backspacer opened with 189k, but it did take over 30k to make in into the Top 15.

Here's how it looks at the midweek:
*Zac Brown Band (Atlantic) 145-155k
*Maroon 5 (A&M/Octone) 145-155k
Trey Songz (Atlantic) 70-75k
Linkin Park (Warner Bros.) 70-75k
Eminem (Interscope) 65-70k
*Santana (Arista/RMG) 60-65k
*John Legend & the Roots (Columbia) 55-60k
*Selena Gomez & The Scene (Hollywood) 50-55k
*Billy Currington (Mercury Nashville) 40-45k
Now 35 (Capitol/EMI) 28-32k
Katy Perry (Capitol/EMI) 28-32k
Jamey Johnson (Mercury Nashville) 28-32k
Robert Plant (Rounder) 22-25k
Justin Bieber (Island/IDJ) 22-25k
Disturbed (Reprise) 20-22k
*Debuts (9/23p)

[jj99$ - - LeLe]

those are some harsh drops for Trey and Linkin Park