Billboard: Who Will Rule the Holiday Season?

[pnobelysk]

Oct 15, 2010 15:42:08 GMT -5 slicknickshady said:

Oct 15, 2010 7:01:50 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

^More than 500K for each, I'd say, is a good possibility.

I would agree.

The main question is will both do higher than Recovery did first week?

id say only taylor has a chance. i think susan could come closeish but not top him. taylor mite

[pnobelysk]

Oct 15, 2010 16:17:55 GMT -5 Glove Slap said:

Oct 2, 2010 5:11:34 GMT -5 Nadia said:

I think around 240k to 300k for Rihanna is more right. her label aren't playing this era. i expect HUGE promo/buzz for LOUD!

You could say that they weren't playing around with GGGB either, and the opening numbers there weren't exactly fantastic.

but rihanna really established herself during the GGGB era. up till then she only had like 5 hits, then after that one album about 7 hits were added to that list

[HolidayGuy]

music-mix.ew.com/2010/10/15/taylor-swift-speak-now-million/

Taylor Swift: Could 'Speak Now' sell a million in a week?
by Simon Vozick-Levinson

Nearly everyone agrees that Taylor Swift‘s third album, Speak Now, is destined to be a hit. The only question is how big. Some people are openly raising the possibility that Speak Now could sell as many as one million copies in its first week — a feat no one has accomplished since Lil Wayne in 2008. Could she really pull this off? The Music Mix found out what a few retail experts have to say.

“I would expect it to be probably the best-selling record of the year for any artist,” says Rob Baker, head of the music department at Nashville’s Great Escape, where Swift herself has been known to shop. Great Escape mostly sells vinyl LPs and used CDs, but Speak Now is one of the few new CDs they’ll be stocking. “If the Beatles put out a new record, we’d be carrying that one too,” Baker jokes. He wouldn’t be surprised to see this one hit the million mark: “Anything’s plausible. I’d say there’s a high probability.”

Across town at Nashville’s Ernest Tubb Record Shop, store manager Stephen Bowen says customers have been asking about Speak Now “quite regularly,” especially the younger female ones. “We’re always excited about a new Taylor Swift,” says Bowen. “Each album, she gets bigger and bigger.” That said, Bowen isn’t sure the current commercial climate will allow for a million-plus debut: “I would say it will be in the hundreds of thousands, but whether it breaks a million — that would be great to hear.” His conservative first-week estimate is somewhere between 250,000 and 300,000 copies sold.

Carl Mello, director of purchasing for New England’s Newbury Comics chain, agrees that instant-platinum status for Speak Now is unlikely. “If the first single ['Mine'] was a ubiquitous classic, then that could have happened,” Mello says. “The first single has reacted okay, but it doesn’t lead me to believe that [the album] will sell a million.” Instead, he’d bet on a first-week total in the mid-600,000s range, a modest step up from Fearless‘ 592,000 debut two years ago. But regardless of how well Speak Now does in its first week, Mello is confident it will remain on the charts for a long time. “The good thing looking at [Swift's] last couple of releases is that the things are usually deep with singles,” he says. “They just live on for a year and a half, selling like crazy. She’s as big of a mainstream music star as we have these days, really.”

How many copies do you think Speak Now will sell in the week after arriving on shelves Oct. 25? Could Swift move a million copies in a week?

[cking33]

It's an interesting question. If memory serves, Lady Antebellum did 500k earlier this year. I don't think she's going to hit a million. But 650k-700k is a likely possibility.

[pnobelysk]

^thats what im thinking, prbly somewhere around eminems numbers

[worldwide]

Well she would do around 500 k in any other time of the year. Considering it's released during the period of high sales it would do 700k + she has heavy promotion.
I guess 700-800 k.
But I really don't know what people see in he ror her music. Ups, not people, kids.

[Deleted]

Oct 19, 2010 13:48:59 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

His conservative first-week estimate is somewhere between 250,000 and 300,000 copies sold.

*IF* this were to happen, how would you all perceive it?


My prediction is anywhere 500-600k.

[musicrocks]

^People would flip s*** haha and call her all types of flop. But there's a very small chance she will sell that low. She'll probably pass a mil in 2 weeks. I think it will be bigger debut week than "Fearless", maybe around 700k, but your estimate is probably right.

[Cerbius]

There's no way Speak Now is gonna sell 1 million copies in its debut week, in two or three weeks, probably, but not in one week. It's also highly unlikely that it's gonna only open with 250-300k. Something around what Fearless debuted with is likely, perhaps a bit less.

At the very worst, I see Speak Now opening with 350 to 400k.

[Honeymoon]

I could see Speak Now selling like consistently over 100k through new years each week but not sure it will debut with over a million

[Honeymoon]

Either way I can see Speak Now selling over 3 million by year end

[HolidayGuy]

"Glee" will release a holiday album released 11/16. Wonder how this will do. Or are people getting "Glee'd-"out?

[pnobelysk]

im sure it will sell well. but dont expect it to smash. it prbly wont pass the sales of the first 3 glee volumes (or maybe temporarily for the holiday season, but not in the long run). it could sell better than the madonna ep, the journey to regionals ep, and the rocky horror ep.

[Cerbius]

Susan Boyle's 'Gift' Poised for More Modest Start Than Debut

Taylor Swift's blockbuster week may have raised the bar on album sales expectations, but the team behind Susan Boyle remains cautious in its projections for her imminent sophomore album.

Boyle will release "The Gift" (Syco/Sony) in the United States on Nov. 9 and a day earlier in the United Kingdom, with Sony Music Entertainment planning an initial U.S. shipment of 1.2 million units. The major projects first-week U.S. sales of 300,000 units, less than half the 701,000 that her debut, "I Dreamed a Dream," sold during Thanksgiving week last year, according to Nielsen SoundScan.

"There's no bigger opportunity or challenge for us this year," says Dave Shack, VP of international for Sony Music U.K. in London. "We're taking nothing for granted. But the conversations we're having with the territories indicate there's a proven fan base out there for Susan Boyle."

Nonetheless, Shack says the continued slump in recorded-music sales means that it may be impossible for "The Gift" to match the phenomenal sales of "I Dreamed a Dream," which benefited from the YouTube-fueled frenzy over Boyle's April 2009 debut appearance on "Britain's Got Talent."

The debut album has sold 3.8 million units in the United States and 1.8 million in the United Kingdom, according to SoundScan and the Official Charts Co. (OCC), respectively. Sony says "I Dreamed a Dream" has sold 9 million units worldwide, and IFPI cited the album as the global best seller of 2009.

For "The Gift," unit sales of "5 million around the world would be absolutely incredible," Shack says.

Executives at Syco declined to comment, referring requests to Boyle's manager Andy Stephens, who couldn't be reached for comment.

Boyle could be particularly vulnerable to the global slide in CD sales, given that they have accounted for more than 97% of both U.S. and U.K. sales of "I Dreamed a Dream," according to SoundScan and the OCC. But Shack is optimistic that digital sales will improve for the follow-up, with final negotiations ongoing over a promotional deal with Apple's iTunes, details of which are to be determined.

"Her audience is getting more and more active online," Shack says. "We've seen them become comfortable doing pre-orders online [for physical product] and the next logical step is buying it digitally."

Those pre-orders are crucial to the campaign, with a big marketing push at Amazon and a partnership with U.S. home shopping channel QVC, which has received more than 16,500 orders since Oct. 13 for an exclusive version of "The Gift" featuring a behind-the-scenes DVD.

Boyle will also be making a flurry of U.S. TV appearances. She appeared on "The Oprah Winfrey Show" Oct. 19, with further appearances to follow on "Today," "The Ellen DeGeneres Show," TNT's "Christmas in Washington" special and more, although international appearances will be more limited than on the last campaign.

"American TV plays to her strengths," says Shack, who cites Australia, Canada and Japan as priority international markets. "She's not that comfortable engaging with European chat show presenters."

"The Gift" contains 10 tracks, a mixture of seasonal standards like "O Holy Night" and "O Come All Ye Faithful" and covers of Lou Reed's "Perfect Day," Crowded House's "Don't Dream It's Over" and Leonard Cohen's "Hallelujah."

www.billboard.com/#/news/susan-boyle-s-gift-poised-for-more-modest-1004124557.story?tag=newstop2

[JamaicaFunk²]

Yeah there were all kinds of articles about Boyle's pre-sales being through the roof; but, the album only became available for pre-sale about 5-6 weeks ago. I had my suspicions about all those reported pre-orders for a while now. Not that 300,000 is bad at all. But really, the album isn't even out yet, and they're making such a specific claim to sales.

[HolidayGuy]

Cerbius, you said that there was no way Speak Now would sell 1m in its first week- what were ya thinking? :)

I can't imagine anyone would think SuBo would see the same kind of first-week sales that she enjoyed last year. But, nonetheless, she'll likely see good sales.

[HolidayGuy]

The Michael Jackson album is confirmed for release 12/14:

news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101104/ap_en_mu/us_people_michael_jackson

[Push The Button]

300k would be great for Susan. Has any Holiday album ever opened that high?

[HolidayGuy]

Andrea Bocelli's album- released Nov. 3 last year- opened with almost 149,000- and he's the type of act that appeals to older consumers who still buy CDs. SuBo has a similar audience, but she probably will surpass that amount. I don't know if she'll sell as much as Bocelli did in the long run, but if any holiday album has the potential, it's that one.

[BlueSwan]

I don't believe in SuBo. Unless she somehow has a magical single, I think The Gift will underperform. Phenomenons like that rarely last.

[Enigma.]

'Michael' will be the biggest seller of Christmas week I suppose.

[HolidayGuy]

SuBo will not have a "magical' single- the woman is 48 years old, and radio wouldn't touch her (outside of AC). No one thinks (at least I think) that her album's going to sell like I Dreamed a Dream. Herl abel is shipping around 1.2 million and expects first-week sales of around 300K.

If The Gift scans half of what IDAD did, that's a success, IMO. So, then what would be considered underperforming?

The Michael Jackson album probably will be the top-selling album in its release week, at the least. I wonder if Sony will sell it on iTunes. With This is It, it didn't make the new track available for individual purchase. This is all previously unreleased material, so what will it do?

[pnobelysk]

for the first time yesterday i actually found someone who listened to susan boyle. my aunt and uncle both over age 65 had wild horses and i dreamed a dream burned to a disc. susan was one of the few artitst who came out in the last 5 years that they knew. they also new gaga and t swift. my aunt heard of justin bieber but wasnt sure if he was real.

[Deleted]

Oct 20, 2010 12:20:16 GMT -5 Cerbius said:

There's no way Speak Now is gonna sell 1 million copies in its debut week, in two or three weeks, probably, but not in one week. It's also highly unlikely that it's gonna only open with 250-300k. Something around what Fearless debuted with is likely, perhaps a bit less.

At the very worst, I see Speak Now opening with 350 to 400k.

Your instincts are dead on!

[Cerbius]

Nov 7, 2010 10:49:43 GMT -5 @kfercat said:

Oct 20, 2010 12:20:16 GMT -5 Cerbius said:

There's no way Speak Now is gonna sell 1 million copies in its debut week, in two or three weeks, probably, but not in one week. It's also highly unlikely that it's gonna only open with 250-300k. Something around what Fearless debuted with is likely, perhaps a bit less.

At the very worst, I see Speak Now opening with 350 to 400k.

Your instincts are dead on!

Hey, I was just making an educated guess.

Anyways, I'm glad the first-week sales of Speak Now far surpassed my expectations.

[danny1999]

Nov 5, 2010 2:50:46 GMT -5 BlueSwan said:

I don't believe in SuBo. Unless she somehow has a magical single, I think The Gift will underperform. Phenomenons like that rarely last.

Do you still think 'The Gift' will underperform? ;)