TGIF
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you gimme that hummingbird heartbeat!
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Post by TGIF on Sept 27, 2010 21:39:05 GMT -5
I still cannot believe how overestimated Katy was. I mean, DAMN. Low-balling industry estimations put her around the 350-500K mark LOL. She had a good opening and it sucks that so many people had unrealistic estimations which made the good opening seem bad. Ye. i don't think katy's numbers were bad by any means but i'd be lying if i say i wasn't expecting a lot more...it's even a far cry from that 300-500k but we've seen it happen before with rihanna (GGGB) and BEP (The End) first week sales and they eventually went on to sell millions hopefully TD will have longevity
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Black Jesus
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Post by Black Jesus on Sept 27, 2010 23:37:41 GMT -5
Lame at this being another Susan Boyle vs. Taylor Swift top sales year. Bring in the next relevant thing...
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vandj4ever
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Post by vandj4ever on Sept 28, 2010 1:30:28 GMT -5
750k opening week for Taylor? I think that's a reasonable estimate, given she's just that kind of artist that's far more likely to draw a fanboy (or, in her case, fangirl) effect in an opening week, with any further sales being largely based on persisting radio and accolade exposure. Again, it'll be the second and third weeks of its release that we'll have a particularly hard look at, as well as comparing the consistency of her figures in subsequent months compared to those for "Fearless" to see how potent she remains commercially. Namaste, Lisping Hibiscus Well, I don't disagree with the essential principle. An act that appeals to several demographics with a Holiday release riding the wave of Fearless and her first album should produce good opening sales. I'm only questioning if 750k might be a little high based on how her first single is performing. Overall the 1.8 million shipment probably isn't risky and I'm not questioning that part. I wonder if Sugarland's estimate might be a little low. King of Leon's is hard to estimate. I'm sure they'll open with higher numbers then their album did last time but it may not be fair to hold them to a 350k estimate based on one breakthrough album. Acts like Maroon 5 and Linkin Park had several successful albums to mine for predictions and both opened lower then expected (more so Maroon 5). I do think KOL obviously has more in their favor right now. Maybe pre-orders are going very well though? Rihanna's prediction seems fair based on her last albums.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2010 1:31:10 GMT -5
There is no guarantee of that, any more than there is a guarantee that Eminem will be #1
There is always that chance the "next relevant thing" will manifest during the holidays
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I Wish
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Post by I Wish on Sept 28, 2010 4:03:16 GMT -5
Susan is going to own everyone and their flop albums in comparison.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2010 9:42:37 GMT -5
i see their is no interest in lee dewyze at all haha with luck he could open with 125k what did cook open with? i wont use kris because kris was on jive Kris opened up with only about 80k last year.
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tsw2008
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Post by tsw2008 on Sept 28, 2010 9:55:19 GMT -5
Lee Dewyze is going to flop hard unless they line up a really incredible lead single for him, there is no hype for him at all. I read somewhere recently where Nigel (AI Producer) said that since Kelly Clarkson and Carrie Underwood the show hasn't created an American Idol...ouch harsh but true.
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Hook
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Post by Hook on Sept 28, 2010 10:38:46 GMT -5
Lee Dewyze is going to flop hard unless they line up a really incredible lead single for him, there is no hype for him at all. I read somewhere recently where Nigel (AI Producer) said that since Kelly Clarkson and Carrie Underwood the show hasn't created an American Idol...ouch harsh but true. I think that's BS. David Cook did pretty well with his first album. It was certified platinum and had two hit singles. One was just a Hot AC hit, but still. He also had a long run of successful touring. Lee needs a single out NOW. It's crazy to think it would climb fast enough to help his album sell if they only release it a few weeks earlier.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2010 11:03:29 GMT -5
If David Cook were to release an album now, it would do nothing
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tsw2008
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Post by tsw2008 on Sept 28, 2010 11:09:25 GMT -5
I think the real test for Cook will be his second album. That's a test that many singing contest winners fail miserably.
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lugus15
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Post by lugus15 on Sept 28, 2010 11:13:42 GMT -5
The last American ¨Idol¨ is Adam Lambert, his album is selling moderately well. It will reach 850-900K, which is not a bad thing considering the state of music industry now.
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vandj4ever
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Post by vandj4ever on Sept 28, 2010 12:01:02 GMT -5
I think that's BS. David Cook did pretty well with his first album. It was certified platinum and had two hit singles. One was just a Hot AC hit, but still. He also had a long run of successful touring. Yeah, Cook's debut did well. I think everyone's waiting to see how these people over the last few seasons do a few years removed from the hype of their season. Popular reality contestant vs viable recording artist. The second album is a test for everyone off the show. They didn't start releasing singles early until season 6. If Lee is a popular contestant he shouldn't need a single on radio initially to sale well, only to maintain sales. "Rihanna's "Loud" (Nov. 16) and the Black Eyed Peas' "The Beginning" (December) are each expected to ship about 500,000 units and have first-week sales of about 200,000." Just noticed this about BEP. I understand their last album didn't open with half a million but it did open with 300k during the summer. If they have another big hit at the time of the release, this prediction may also be too low. This album will be released during November so that should help.
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Post by singingsparrow on Sept 28, 2010 12:54:56 GMT -5
I think that's BS. David Cook did pretty well with his first album. It was certified platinum and had two hit singles. One was just a Hot AC hit, but still. He also had a long run of successful touring. Yeah, Cook's debut did well. I think everyone's waiting to see how these people over the last few seasons do a few years removed from the hype of their season. Popular reality contestant vs viable recording artist. The second album is a test for everyone off the show. They didn't start releasing singles early until season 6. If Lee is a popular contestant he shouldn't need a single on radio initially to sale well, only to maintain sales. "Rihanna's "Loud" (Nov. 16) and the Black Eyed Peas' "The Beginning" (December) are each expected to ship about 500,000 units and have first-week sales of about 200,000." Just noticed this about BEP. I understand their last album didn't open with half a million but it did open with 300k during the summer. If they have another big hit at the time of the release, this prediction may also be too low. This album will be released during November so that should help. The estimates for the Black Eyed Peas are definitely too far on the low side, especially given the release of "The E.N.D." preceded the peak of "I Gotta Feeling" fervor and the advantage they have in that this is being released during the holiday season. They are still very much a singles group overall, but I do think this past year and a half they nonetheless have done a better job defining themselves as a performing act as well, so probably will have a more loyal draw for the first week of "The Beginning" compared to previous eras. Namaste, Lisping Hibiscus
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2010 13:12:05 GMT -5
The last American ¨Idol¨ is Adam Lambert, his album is selling moderately well. It will reach 850-900K, which is not a bad thing considering the state of music industry now. He's no American "Idol" to me. I wonder if he'll get invited back to the AMA's this year?
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lugus15
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Post by lugus15 on Sept 28, 2010 13:40:58 GMT -5
^ Homophobe much????
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2010 14:29:16 GMT -5
Nope, not at all. Just don't think displays of that kind, of any kind of sexuality are appropriate for a live awards show. If a hetero couple had done something that outrageous and inappropriate on the same show I wouldn't have liked it either. And I also don't care much for his music.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2010 14:39:04 GMT -5
Last I checked he didn't win.
Not liking his music or his act doesn't make you a homophobe
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Post by ListenToItTwice on Sept 28, 2010 15:11:34 GMT -5
Does anyone else think 350,000 is high for Kings of Leon?
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Post by Ke$ha's Left Tittie on Sept 28, 2010 15:24:23 GMT -5
Lambert has another radio hit with "If I Had You" so I doubt he would even care what peigan68 has to say.
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Sept 28, 2010 15:30:39 GMT -5
I think by the American Idol comment he meant artists that have REALLY broken through-as in sold over 10 million albums with multiple platinum+ albums and steady streams of hits. Adam, Archie, David Cook, hell, even Kellie, Clay, etc have done well for themselves, but seem to not be on quite the same level as Kelly/Carrie. That is just the way it seems to me. I think Daughtry could be included though-first cd sold TONS and second cd sold solidly with a single top 30 and rising even now. It will be interesting to see who can maintain their success-like, will Cook/Daughtry have another major hit album or will Adam continue plugging along with pop hits that should have been bigger?
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1shot
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Post by 1shot on Sept 28, 2010 15:46:20 GMT -5
Lambert has another radio hit with "If I Had You" so I doubt he would even care what peigan68 has to say. If by peaking at #30 on the Hot 100 and only capping out 35 million audience impressions is the definition of a 'radio hit' then I'm VERY scared for music as of now. And I sincerely doubt that 700k sold of an album is the definition of an "American Idol."
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Post by singingsparrow on Sept 28, 2010 16:53:26 GMT -5
Does anyone else think 350,000 is high for Kings of Leon? I think it will only be two-thirds that total. Namaste, Lisping Hibiscus
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on Sept 28, 2010 19:41:02 GMT -5
If a hetero couple had done something that outrageous and inappropriate on the same show I wouldn't have liked it either. While I'm not accusing you of being a homophobe (I hate when people jump on that without actual reason or cause), hetero sexual displays like that occur fairly often and nobody bats an eye.
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lugus15
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Post by lugus15 on Sept 28, 2010 20:10:58 GMT -5
If a hetero couple had done something that outrageous and inappropriate on the same show I wouldn't have liked it either. While I'm not accusing you of being a homophobe (I hate when people jump on that without actual reason or cause), hetero sexual displays like that occur fairly often and nobody bats an eye. Not only that, but many rap acts do performances where 90% of the lyrics are profanity (see the Drake/Eminem/LilWayne/etal at the Grammys) or are about slapping some bitch, etc. Double standard much???? Also, I do think that the last American Idol per se (and yes I include in the list Archuleta, Cook, Sparks, Hudson or anyone else who has sold more than 500k), will be Lambert. Honestly I see next season as the last season.
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Sept 29, 2010 0:07:56 GMT -5
Do you think ratings will collapse next season? It is still one of the most highly rated shows on television in general and rakes in tens of millions in profit every season just for ads and commercials.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2010 0:13:49 GMT -5
It was the #1 show by quite a bit
Last year it was just the #1 show that doesn't even always win its night
This year, it may not be the #1 show
Renewal may or may not happen but it is likely no longer automatic
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lugus15
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Post by lugus15 on Sept 29, 2010 0:32:45 GMT -5
Maybe not next season, but I do think that the X-Factor US version will put an end to American Idol, and honestly it should end now that it still is relevant, and not drag it for another 5 years when it will be forgotten by everyone.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2010 0:35:48 GMT -5
2 years tops
1 if the new lineup and format fails.
Shows that go through dramatic format and cast changes rarely last more than a couple years
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Sept 29, 2010 1:07:21 GMT -5
I forgot about X Factor-that may hurt them. The thing with Idol is that is still makes a HUGE profit and no TV exec is going to cancel a show that is making them 10s of millions in profit. It just isn't an economically sound decision. The actual recording careers of their people doesn't really matter-it was always secondary to the profit made with commercials/ads/endorsements during the actual show. To us, sure, it seems not relevant at all because we are more interested in the stars and musical careers that develop. I have seen people screaming for Idol and other shows like Dancing with the Stars, Two and a Half men, House, etc to be cancelled because they aren't "relevant" or "good" for years and it always blows my mind because all of those shows still get double the viewership of most other shows and rake in absolute crap-ton loads of profit. Most tv execs aren't going to look at massive profits and viewership and then go WELL! THE QUALITY HAS DROPPED! **cancel**
Now if ratings do decline and sponsors start pulling out then a cancellation may be in the works. Probably not until they have a huge dramatic last season milked for all its worth though, ha ha.
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slw84
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Post by slw84 on Sept 30, 2010 17:04:38 GMT -5
Rihanna's "Loud" (Nov. 16) and the Black Eyed Peas' "The Beginning" (December) are each expected to ship about 500,000 units and have first-week sales of about 200,000. >>>not liking the her new single as much as I wanted but 200k seems a little low for some reason ??? BEP will sell more than that and will outsell Rihanna if released the same week but I think it will be pushed back. Kanye West's new album (Nov. 23) is expected to ship about 750,000 units, with first-week sales of about 400,000. >>>This seems about right. Nicki Minaj's much-anticipated debut, "Pink Friday" (Nov. 23), should ship 300,000 units, with first-week sales of 125,000. >>>Perhaps I am delusional...I am the only one that think that her releasing her record that week will hype her sales up even more. 125k...I think she can pull 250-400k based on promoCredits go to Drag for finding this article.[/quote] How I see it? Best sellers of the season 1) Susan Boyle 2) Taylor Swift 3) Kanye West 4) Black Eyed Peas 5) Rihanna 6) Rascall Flatts 7) Nelly 8) Mariah 9) Reba The rest don't matter...
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