Verisimilitude
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Post by Verisimilitude on Jun 8, 2011 14:22:42 GMT -5
POP DIVAS DUEL AS INDUSTRY CREEPS BACK INTO BLACK
Next Week’s Chart Looks Like a Battle for #1 Between Gaga and Adele
June 8, 2011
Next week’s battle is shaping up as a duel between reigning champ Lady Gaga and Adele for the #1 spot on the HITS Album chart, but the real story is in the details.
For the first time in at least half a decade, sales totals have creeped up in year-over-year comparisons. OK, so it’s only 1%, but that’s a something for those beleaguered music retailers across the country not experiencing more action from Anthony Weiner Tweets than at their cash registers.
So while Gaga and Adele duke it out on top, look for Strange Music’s Tech N9ne to have the top debut for Ron Spaulding’s Fontana with the Kansas City rapper’s best first week ever of between 50-55k for his latest album, Night of the Living Dead: Origins 3D.
That’s the same total for Interscope Baltimore pop punk band All Time Low’s fourth studio album, Dirty Work.
Former Brooks & Dunn star Ronnie Dunn’s self-titled solo Arista Nashville debut should be right behind that with 45-50k.
Domino U.K. one-time Next Big Things Arctic Monkeys’ fourth album, Suck It and See, looks to be in the 20-25k range.
Finally, Mailboat’s Def Leppard album, a Walmart exclusive, is looking like anywhere from 15-20k.
The market was down 17% vs. last week, up 7% over the same week last year and now, as we said, up 1% year to date. So crack out the champagne bottles and the BlackBerrys and let’s get down to some serious sexting.
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Post by Fat Ass Kelly Price on Jun 8, 2011 14:24:12 GMT -5
So this either shows a small drop from Gaga or a significant drop for both.
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Jun 8, 2011 14:28:22 GMT -5
^Well, Born This Way isn't going to see as big anywhere near as big a percentage drop as it did in the second week.  A 35% drop would pout BTW at around 113K. A 6%-7% drop would pout Adele in the same neighborhood. |
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The Gypsy
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Post by The Gypsy on Jun 8, 2011 14:30:38 GMT -5
Wow, this is gonna be a fierce battle
Estimates have them in a deadlock :o
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Post by cube84 on Jun 8, 2011 14:32:43 GMT -5
Average drop in the 3º week is 35/40%.
So if adele will reach 110/115k for adele will be another -5%/-7% for gaga -37%.
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bibliotheque
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Post by bibliotheque on Jun 8, 2011 14:41:47 GMT -5
HITS must not have heard about the Femme Fatale discounts on Amazon, iTunes & Best Buy which will obviously push the album to #1 with sales of 1m+ since people will buy anything as long as it's cheap enough :)
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Post by cube84 on Jun 8, 2011 14:45:43 GMT -5
^ 3.99$ and 5$ after 2 1/2 months, not 0.99$ ( with a big mac ) after 1 second.  |
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Jun 8, 2011 14:51:00 GMT -5
Hopefully Gaga can hit 1.4 million-1.4 million in three weeks is not bad for a flop album.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Jun 8, 2011 15:02:00 GMT -5
Adele, Katy Perry and Lady Gaga are all on sale for $9.99 at Best Buy this week.
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jgizzle89
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Post by jgizzle89 on Jun 8, 2011 15:06:52 GMT -5
I totally guessed right on Tech 9's sales. He always debuts with 30k, but this time around he had much more hype. 50-55k is great for him!
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Jun 8, 2011 15:06:57 GMT -5
Adele's continued 100K+ weeks are probably more impressive than any of us realize. No one is going to touch her in terms of success this year. I also support her getting some Grammy loving. I don't see how they could avoid giving her that though!
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chopped89
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Post by chopped89 on Jun 8, 2011 15:18:33 GMT -5
So happy for Tech.
He deserves to 10x platinum!
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Jun 8, 2011 15:41:29 GMT -5
As the Grammys love big commercial success stories and Adele is the kind of act who appeals to Grammy voters, I fully expect her to do well there. Adele also happens to have produced a strong album, too- but that's not up there on the list of most important criteria for NARAS. Her album's consistent level of sales is mighty impressive. |
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Jun 8, 2011 15:46:16 GMT -5
I figure she will do well, but sometimes the Grammys do something weird and either semi-snub someone who should be getting loving or give her every award and then hand AOTY to some random older act LOL. I fully wouldn't mind her getting AOTY and then another big one or two. I say only another one or two because I don't really like sweeps no matter who it is.
Can you imagine if she does pretty much sweep and then also has a huge, magical performance? This album is going to be selling forever.
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Minor Scratch
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Post by Minor Scratch on Jun 8, 2011 15:56:47 GMT -5
They have Tech's album name wrong.
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bibliotheque
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Post by bibliotheque on Jun 8, 2011 16:06:53 GMT -5
^ 3.99$ and 5$ after 2 1/2 months, not 0.99$ ( with a big mac ) after 1 second. Two days on amazon vs the whole week everywhere |
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Jun 8, 2011 16:09:02 GMT -5
^I don't know why people get into all of this- Britney Spears is past the days of coming anywhere near 1 million in first-week album sales, regardless of the price. Sure, Born This Way was aided by massively discounted pricing, but even without the 99-cent deal, the album still would have outsold Femme Fatale in its first week by a considerable margin. So why bother comparing?
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slw84
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Post by slw84 on Jun 8, 2011 16:51:25 GMT -5
^I don't know why people get into all of this- Britney Spears is past the days of coming anywhere near 1 million in first-week album sales, regardless of the price. Sure, Born This Way was aided by massively discounted pricing, but even without the 99-cent deal, the album still would have outsold Femme Fatale in its first week by a considerable margin. So why bother comparing? I think it's obvious why bibliotechque is doing that...it's ok. LOL ;) |
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Post by Push The Button on Jun 8, 2011 17:19:39 GMT -5
Good gracious. This will make, what, 10 weeks of 100k+ sales for Adele?
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discoloser
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Post by discoloser on Jun 8, 2011 17:24:48 GMT -5
Oh good for both girls. Hopefully both cross 100K this coming week.
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Post by cube84 on Jun 8, 2011 17:32:17 GMT -5
^ 3.99$ and 5$ after 2 1/2 months, not 0.99$ ( with a big mac ) after 1 second. Two days on amazon vs the whole week everywhere Billboard 200 -6/18/11 While it's not unusual for albums that enter with mighty big sales frames to tumble hard in week number two, Gaga's fall is amplified, courtesy of AmazonMP3. |
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slayZ
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Post by slayZ on Jun 8, 2011 17:42:49 GMT -5
^ 3.99$ and 5$ after 2 1/2 months, not 0.99$ ( with a big mac ) after 1 second. Two days on amazon vs the whole week everywhere The FF Amazon deal is only available today...only on Amazon. |
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Post by Push The Button on Jun 8, 2011 17:43:50 GMT -5
It's also on sale on iTunes.
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Post by Fat Ass Kelly Price on Jun 8, 2011 17:44:39 GMT -5
FF is on sale in plenty of places.
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cking33
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Post by cking33 on Jun 8, 2011 18:01:04 GMT -5
As the Grammys love big commercial success stories and Adele is the kind of act who appeals to Grammy voters, I fully expect her to do well there. Adele also happens to have produced a strong album, too- but that's not up there on the list of most important criteria for NARAS. Her album's consistent level of sales is mighty impressive. That and they already showed her some Grammy love, giving her GF nominations and 2 Grammys for her last album. She's a shoe-in to pick up ROTY, SOTY and AOTY nominations at this point. |
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Honeymoon
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Post by Honeymoon on Jun 8, 2011 18:02:28 GMT -5
I seriously think 4 million by year-end is very possible. When is the last time that happened? HS Musical 2006? 2005 for a female act I believe
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Honeymoon
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Post by Honeymoon on Jun 8, 2011 18:06:02 GMT -5
Are people actually arguing about something that was brought up as a joke in the first place?
For the record, I bought Femme Fatale on Amazon mp3 this afternoon. They probably want the album to see a bit of an increase before the tour kicks off next week and "I Wanna Go" goes to radio. It probably won't be a very big one (I'm guessing 13k, a 2k increase) but enough to keep it top 40
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David
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Post by David on Jun 8, 2011 18:51:16 GMT -5
FF is on sale in plenty of places. Looks like they gotta move some inventory. #oop |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2011 19:05:56 GMT -5
Adele's "21" album is headed back to No. 1 on the Billboard 200 albums chart next week, as Lady Gaga's "Born This Way" will likely slip to No. 2 after two weeks leading the tally.
If "21" returns to the top, it will mark the tenth non-consecutive week at No. 1 for the album. The British singer's set has yet to leave the top three positions of the chart since its debut on the list dated March 12 -- 15 weeks ago. It's still too early to tell how either Adele or Gaga will sell this week.
Lady Gaga's 'Born' Holds Atop Billboard 200,
Despite Steep Sales Drop
Next week's top debuts will come from Tech N9ne's "All 6's & 7's," All Time Low's "Dirty Work" and Ronnie Dunn's self-titled solo debut. Industry sources suggest the former two might sell around 50,000 copies by week's end on June 12, while Dunn could shift 45,000 or so.
Other albums looking for a possible top 20 entry are Arctic Monkeys' "Suck It And See" and Def Leppard's "Mirrorball."
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2011 19:06:41 GMT -5
Billboard is calling Adele as next weeks #1
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