HITS 7/05: Beyonce #1 290-310k

[Fat Ass Kelly Price]

Jun 29, 2011 16:37:55 GMT -5 Codex said:

Jun 29, 2011 15:57:46 GMT -5 Fat Ass Kelly Price said:

I can guarantee you that 4 will be selling.

But how much? Katy by spring will have sold 10 times her debut week. I don't see Beyonce even getting close to 5 times 275-300.

That's a stupid comparison really. If you debut with more, of course it's goining to be harder to sell multiple times of that opening total.

And at worse, 4 will sell a million. She's more established and a stronger seller than Katy and Rihanna. One album will not kill her. Katy hasn't even had a double platinum album. And Rihanna accomplished that with a re-release and 7 singles.

[Black Jesus]

300k!?! Get it B!!

[When I Ruled the World]

Very nice for Beyonce! ~300k is fantastic considering she doesn't have a huge radio hit.

[HolidayGuy]

Decent projection for Queen B. Hopefully it ends up closer to 300K. The promo later in the week will not hurt.

[HolidayGuy]

Just noticed- no projection for Dolly Parton. Backwoods Barbie peaked in the top 20.

[Deleted]

Jun 29, 2011 17:29:48 GMT -5 Fat Ass Kelly Price said:

Jun 29, 2011 16:37:55 GMT -5 Codex said:

But how much? Katy by spring will have sold 10 times her debut week. I don't see Beyonce even getting close to 5 times 275-300.

That's a stupid comparison really. If you debut with more, of course it's goining to be harder to sell multiple times of that opening total.

And at worse, 4 will sell a million. She's more established and a stronger seller than Katy and Rihanna. One album will not kill her. Katy hasn't even had a double platinum album. And Rihanna accomplished that with a re-release and 7 singles.

You're right of course, but my point was supposed to be that even though her first week is bigger than Rihanna, Katy and Kesha, they'll still have more sales in the long run if she doesn't get an AirPlay hit to give 4 legs. I don't really see too much big hit potential, so it probably will be selling less than Katy and Rihanna in a year.

[jgizzle89]

Beyonce will do fine. BTINH is picking up nicely (definitely a grower), and after that she has EOT and Countdown, both of which will do better than BTINH (I predict).

Basically, whoever told her that RTW was a hit was full of shit and should be fired because had that not been released first she would probably have sold something like 350k or 400k.

[jgizzle89]

Countdown was an obvious choice for 1st single. They really dropped the ball on that one haha.

[Fat Ass Kelly Price]

End of Time was the obvious first single tbh.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

I knew the album would have a decent first week. I'm shocked people doubted it... assuming anyone predicted any less than 150k.

[mew2]

Jun 29, 2011 18:27:50 GMT -5 Codex said:

Jun 29, 2011 17:29:48 GMT -5 Fat Ass Kelly Price said:

That's a stupid comparison really. If you debut with more, of course it's goining to be harder to sell multiple times of that opening total.

And at worse, 4 will sell a million. She's more established and a stronger seller than Katy and Rihanna. One album will not kill her. Katy hasn't even had a double platinum album. And Rihanna accomplished that with a re-release and 7 singles.

You're right of course, but my point was supposed to be that even though her first week is bigger than Rihanna, Katy and Kesha, they'll still have more sales in the long run if she doesn't get an AirPlay hit to give 4 legs. I don't really see too much big hit potential, so it probably will be selling less than Katy and Rihanna in a year.

You didn't really see a ~300k opening, and look at you now. You like staying scalped, I assume.

Anyways, congratulations to Beyoncé. That's a very solid opening for this time of the year, specially without having any big hits. Hopefully the album will have some nice legs.

[jgizzle89]

Pretty good numbers for Big Sean. I wasn't expecting anymore than 100k, so 95k with only 1 Urban/Rhythmic song is pretty impressive.

[slw84]

Jun 29, 2011 17:29:48 GMT -5 Fat Ass Kelly Price said:

Jun 29, 2011 16:37:55 GMT -5 Codex said:

But how much? Katy by spring will have sold 10 times her debut week. I don't see Beyonce even getting close to 5 times 275-300.

That's a stupid comparison really. If you debut with more, of course it's goining to be harder to sell multiple times of that opening total.

And at worse, 4 will sell a million. She's more established and a stronger seller than Katy and Rihanna. One album will not kill her. Katy hasn't even had a double platinum album. And Rihanna accomplished that with a re-release and 7 singles.

Oh noooooooo...I knew the comparisons would begin.

But, when this album goes platinum with underperforming singles...this will place her in the category on selling based on your fanbase...there are only a couple more in our generation that can ship platinum even if the songs are not sticking, the image is not where it needs to be, or the artist is doing little promo...

[slw84]

Jun 29, 2011 18:27:50 GMT -5 Codex said:

Jun 29, 2011 17:29:48 GMT -5 Fat Ass Kelly Price said:

That's a stupid comparison really. If you debut with more, of course it's goining to be harder to sell multiple times of that opening total.

And at worse, 4 will sell a million. She's more established and a stronger seller than Katy and Rihanna. One album will not kill her. Katy hasn't even had a double platinum album. And Rihanna accomplished that with a re-release and 7 singles.

You're right of course, but my point was supposed to be that even though her first week is bigger than Rihanna, Katy and Kesha, they'll still have more sales in the long run if she doesn't get an AirPlay hit to give 4 legs. I don't really see too much big hit potential, so it probably will be selling less than Katy and Rihanna in a year.

I think her two biggest potential hits will appeal more to urban radio so you might be on to something there. Some people seem to be against a re-release as if this were a classic record but I would like to think that it will happen in November.

[Deleted]

Jun 29, 2011 14:47:46 GMT -5 d.t.m said:

She was never gonna do less than 250k first week with all of the promo.

Agreed. Idk why anyone in their right mind even thought this would have bad debut sales.

Jun 29, 2011 14:47:46 GMT -5 d.t.m said:

Frankly I would have been shocked if she did, but the lack of Irreplaceable type radio smash on the album is what's going to get her in the end like Alicia.

If anything, the first week would've been the time to worry than in the long run because of how the era started...everything has been turned around now and BTINH is blowing up so I think everything is back on track. This won't be another TEOF situation, imo.

[Verisimilitude]

Jun 29, 2011 19:57:08 GMT -5 @swella said:

This won't be another TEOF situation, imo.

Yeah but that album had 2 big urban hits and sold 1.5 million (I think). It's not like it was a complete flop.

[Deleted]

Bey's projections are exactly what I expected. Solid numbers; between 250-350k. I knew this would be the album where she proves her fanbase is loyal and whatnot.

I already see certain blogs trying to twist this into a flop just because it'll be her lowest debut when hardly any other popstar posted better numbers. The only person is Britney but her circumstances were like the polar opposite of "4" i.e. Brit had the hit singles, probably equally as shabby promo but lukewarm performance receptions. Kind of balances out I guess.

Besides her it's just Gaga and we all know how much hype Interscope built months prior in addition to all the money they shelved out for that astronomical promo set-up and cramming it down everywhere imaginable.

[jamrock16]

Nope. People are now changing their tune b/c they see that they were wrong with their predictions. They wanted her to fail miserably and now that that's not happening excuses like "so much promo" are being thrown around. Some tv spots, which many artists have opening week, is not considered heavy promo no matter what way you look at it.

And the comparisons only make her opening look stronger.
Loud w/ OG and WMN? only made 207k first week despite opening right before the holiday season. Sure she's sold consistently but that's with huge hits to go along with it

Teenage Dream w/ CG and TD at the time of release only made 192k. She's needed 4 huge hits to sell what she has today.

Case in point, Beyonce w/ no hit projected to sell more first week *is* impressive.

[Deleted]

Jun 29, 2011 20:02:53 GMT -5 Verisimilitude said:

Jun 29, 2011 19:57:08 GMT -5 @swella said:

This won't be another TEOF situation, imo.

Yeah but that album had 2 big urban hits and sold 1.5 million (I think). It's not like it was a complete flop.

I meant in terms of the bulk of the sales coming from the first week and the era losing steam quickly. This era is just now on track with BTINH gaining steam, they got everything under control now.

[badrobot]

They don't list numbers for Adele but assuming she is fairly steady (maybe not over 100k this week tho) she may remain in the top 3. Sounds like she just has to stay above Selena Gomez.

[Verisimilitude]

Billboard has higher numbers for Beyonce and Selena Gomez:

Beyonce's '4' Headed For No. 1 with Perhaps 300,000

June 29, 2011
By Keith Caulfield, Los Angeles

Beyonce's fourth studio album, "4," is headed for a No. 1 debut next week on the Billboard 200 chart with maybe 300,000 copies sold by week's send on Sunday, July 3, according to industry prognosticators. If it starts at the top, it will be her fourth No. 1 solo album -- her three previous studio sets all hit No. 1 as well.

A 300,000 launch is off from the 482,000 (according to Nielsen SoundScan) that greeted her last effort, 2008's "I Am... Sasha Fierce" and the 541,000-first week for 2006's "B'Day." Still, 300,000 could be viewed as a handsome bow in today's soft album-sales market and considering the set has yet to launch an across-the-board smash single.

Its lead-off track, "Run the World (Girls)," has so far peaked at No. 29 on the Billboard Hot 100 and sold 424,000 downloads in the U.S. That stands in stark contrast to "Sasha Fierce," which was ushered in by two hit lead tracks: "If I Were a Boy" (No. 3) and "Single Ladies (Put a Ring On It)" (No. 1).

So far, "4," is Beyonce's first album that didn't see its lead single reach the Hot 100's top 10. Her 2003 "Dangerously In Love" debut launched with "Crazy In Love" (No. 1 for eight weeks) while "B'Day's" first single, "Deja Vu," hit No. 4.

Beyonce's "4" was one of a number of big albums that hit retailers on Tuesday, June 28. Among the other titles headed for a top five bow next week are rapper Big Sean's "Finally Famous" and Selena Gomez and the Scene's "When the Sun Goes Down." They are perhaps going to sell 90,000 and 80,000, respectively, in their debut frames.

Also aiming for a top 10 entry is David Cook's second album, "This Loud Morning" and Limp Bizkit's first studio album in six years, "Gold Cobra."

[Rican@]

Jun 29, 2011 19:57:08 GMT -5 @swella said:

Jun 29, 2011 14:47:46 GMT -5 d.t.m said:

She was never gonna do less than 250k first week with all of the promo.

Agreed. Idk why anyone in their right mind even thought this would have bad debut sales.

Jun 29, 2011 14:47:46 GMT -5 d.t.m said:

Frankly I would have been shocked if she did, but the lack of Irreplaceable type radio smash on the album is what's going to get her in the end like Alicia.

If anything, the first week would've been the time to worry than in the long run because of how the era started...everything has been turned around now and BTINH is blowing up so I think everything is back on track. This won't be another TEOF situation, imo.

She can only wish this turn into TEOF situation. I don't see her selling platinum easily especially starting with almost 300K and then the expected drops the following weeks (and if she stablize before it gets too bad). I know her fans are trying to play this up like she is on track but this is all promotion and name right now. Nothing is smooth from this point and she also have nothing appealing to urban right now. The coming weeks will be interesting, but to turn around an era isn't as easy as it was back in 2006 for her and this isn't turn around just yet.

I still don't see that she proves she is an album artist because she depends on A LOT of promotion moreso than artists who are truly album artists. But we'll see.

[Jack]

300k! Tasty.

As for what's next. I'm hoping for:

Beyonce - Countdown feat. Jay Z [Remix]

Released at the end of Summer.

[Deleted]

Jun 29, 2011 21:10:38 GMT -5 Rican@ said:

Jun 29, 2011 19:57:08 GMT -5 @swella said:

Agreed. Idk why anyone in their right mind even thought this would have bad debut sales.



If anything, the first week would've been the time to worry than in the long run because of how the era started...everything has been turned around now and BTINH is blowing up so I think everything is back on track. This won't be another TEOF situation, imo.

She can only wish this turn into TEOF situation. I don't see her selling platinum easily especially starting with almost 300K and then the expected drops the following weeks (and if she stablize before it gets too bad). I know her fans are trying to play this up like she is on track but this is all promotion and name right now. Nothing is smooth from this point and she also have nothing appealing to urban right now. The coming weeks will be interesting, but to turn around an era isn't as easy as it was back in 2006 for her and this isn't turn around just yet.

I still don't see that she proves she is an album artist because she depends on A LOT of promotion moreso than artists who are truly album artists. But we'll see.

It's not all promotion and name though..."Best Thing I Never Had" is doing well on radio and iTunes. Everything is falling into place and she has even bigger promo still to come next month.

[Rican@]

Jun 29, 2011 21:27:11 GMT -5 @swella said:

Jun 29, 2011 21:10:38 GMT -5 Rican@ said:

She can only wish this turn into TEOF situation. I don't see her selling platinum easily especially starting with almost 300K and then the expected drops the following weeks (and if she stablize before it gets too bad). I know her fans are trying to play this up like she is on track but this is all promotion and name right now. Nothing is smooth from this point and she also have nothing appealing to urban right now. The coming weeks will be interesting, but to turn around an era isn't as easy as it was back in 2006 for her and this isn't turn around just yet.

I still don't see that she proves she is an album artist because she depends on A LOT of promotion moreso than artists who are truly album artists. But we'll see.

It's not all promotion and name though..."Best Thing I Never Had" is doing well on radio and iTunes. Everything is falling into place and she has even bigger promo still to come next month.

Yes it is. The album release week is causing the increase for BTINH, which is often for most artists of their album release week. Its apparent. You are not going to tell me that BTINH is selling this album right now?

[d.t.m]

Jun 29, 2011 20:06:23 GMT -5 @swella said:

Jun 29, 2011 20:02:53 GMT -5 Verisimilitude said:

Yeah but that album had 2 big urban hits and sold 1.5 million (I think). It's not like it was a complete flop.

I meant in terms of the bulk of the sales coming from the first week and the era losing steam quickly. This era is just now on track with BTINH gaining steam, they got everything under control now.

When is the video released? I'm surprised it wasn't released right before album week.

[Jack]

Jun 29, 2011 21:30:44 GMT -5 d.t.m said:

Jun 29, 2011 20:06:23 GMT -5 @swella said:

I meant in terms of the bulk of the sales coming from the first week and the era losing steam quickly. This era is just now on track with BTINH gaining steam, they got everything under control now.

When is the video released? I'm surprised it wasn't released right before album week.

Tomorrow.

[mew2]

Jun 29, 2011 21:30:24 GMT -5 Rican@ said:

Jun 29, 2011 21:27:11 GMT -5 @swella said:

It's not all promotion and name though..."Best Thing I Never Had" is doing well on radio and iTunes. Everything is falling into place and she has even bigger promo still to come next month.

Yes it is. The album release week is causing the increase for BTINH, which is often for most artists of their album release week. Its apparent. You are not going to tell me that BTINH is selling this album right now?

BTINH isn't selling this album (yet), but certainly promo isn't either, considering she's been very low-key for her standards. I'd say it's selling mainly on her name and the quality of the record.

[Peaches. [Ch, r. is]]

What albums don't sell because of the artist name? It's the same thing as saying she's only selling because of her fanbase, which is not a bad thing last time I checked. What about all the great reviews she's getting for the album?

And "It's only selling because of her name and promo" is such an odd argument. Is that supposed to be a bad thing ??? Isn't the point of promo to sell the album?

Clearly Bey has someone hurting.

[Rican@]

Jun 29, 2011 21:44:27 GMT -5 mew2 said:

Jun 29, 2011 21:30:24 GMT -5 Rican@ said:

Yes it is. The album release week is causing the increase for BTINH, which is often for most artists of their album release week. Its apparent. You are not going to tell me that BTINH is selling this album right now?

BTINH isn't selling this album (yet), but certainly promo isn't either, considering she's been very low-key for her standards. I'd say it's selling mainly on her name and the quality of the record.

Again, promotion is not selling this album? Name is helping as well and the quality of the record is subjective. People knew this album was coming out once it leaked which is promo. She announced it herself when it leaked. She has been at every big show and now she has ad for Target running nearly twice a hour on tv. If promotion did not exist in this album selling then you know, it wouldn't be selling. Her name would only take her so far and word of mouth would take a while to build.