Arabella21
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Post by Arabella21 on Jul 13, 2011 14:25:51 GMT -5
hitsdailydouble.com/news/newsPage.cgi?news08608m01 SHELTON’S VOICE DOMINATES Warner Bros. Nashville Star Uses TV Exposure as New Album Set to Debut #1 July 13, 2011 Blake Shelton’s Voice just got a lot louder. The veteran Warner Bros. Nashville country artist has received a second life from his role on NBC’s surprise hit The Voice. Based on one-day sales from those music retailers not developing their locations into Internet cafes, Shelton’s new album Red River Blue will be the #1 album on next week’s HITS sales chart, with a total estimated at between 110-120k. That’s about five times the opening week sales of his last album, 2010’s Hillbilly Bone EP, which sold 23k. Epic rockers Incubus’ If Not Now, When?, the Calabasas, CA, band’s seventh studio album, but first since 2006’s Light Grenades, is on target for 75-80k, about half of its previous total of 166k. RCA Nashville’s Chris Young, winner of USA Network’s Nashville Star singing competition in 2006, releases his third album, Neon, with forecasts between 70-75k. Universal Republic singer-songwriter and two-time Grammy winner Colbie Caillat releases her third album, All of You, with expected first-week sales in the 55-60k range. Roadrunner British Columbia rockers Theory of a Deadman release their fourth album, The Truth Is…, which is looking at 30-35k in sales, the same total as the new release from Fueled by Ramen/Atlantic reunited ska-punks Sublime with Rome’s Yours Truly. Album sales were down 18% vs. last week, up 2% vs. same week last year and still up 1% year to date. And if you factor in the TEA (with 10 tracks equaling an album), that total increases 3.7% (up 8.1m units).
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I Wish
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Post by I Wish on Jul 13, 2011 14:35:03 GMT -5
For some reason I thought Blake would score MUCH higher than that. Hmmm.
With these 6 new releases possibly debuting in the top 10, Adele & Beyonce, plus James Aldean, Bad Meets Evil & Jackie Evancho, I'm thinking Selena Gomez will likely drop to #11 or #12. :( It'll be a tight race that's for sure.
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Glove Slap
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Post by Glove Slap on Jul 13, 2011 14:41:37 GMT -5
I don't really think Blake has ever been a great album seller, so these are fantastic numbers for him.
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I Wish
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Post by I Wish on Jul 13, 2011 14:43:57 GMT -5
Yeah I don't recall him having large debuts prior, but he's gained so much fame from The Voice, I thought for sure it would reflect in his numbers more. :( I absolutely adore him now because of that show. lol
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nighttime
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Post by nighttime on Jul 13, 2011 14:44:38 GMT -5
I thought "Honey Bee" and The Voice would do a lot more for Blake
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badrobot
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Post by badrobot on Jul 13, 2011 15:08:09 GMT -5
Looks quite possible Adele will be out of the top 3 for the first time, unless her sales don't drop at all and those Incubus/Chris Young albums come in on the super low side of estimates.
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Glove Slap
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Post by Glove Slap on Jul 13, 2011 15:51:20 GMT -5
It also looks like Colbie's debut numbers are going to be around half of what they were last time.
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Gravity.
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Post by Gravity. on Jul 13, 2011 15:54:58 GMT -5
"I Do" didn't do too well compared to "Fallin' For You." "I Do" barely made top ten on her core format, and fell pretty fast.
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Jul 13, 2011 16:21:49 GMT -5
There's only so much a gig on a weekly talent show will help an act's album sales (see Jennifer Lopez).
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I Wish
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Post by I Wish on Jul 13, 2011 18:16:13 GMT -5
Blake is not only much more likable, he is coming off of a big hit and country music normally sells really well when you've made it big.
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Post by Glove Slap on Jul 13, 2011 18:28:04 GMT -5
Blake is not only much more likable, he is coming off of a big hit and country music normally sells really well when you've made it big. He'll probably stick around on the charts for a while. Isn't his follow-up to Honey Bee getting good response? What did his last proper album open up with anyway (not the EPs he put out)?
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grouper6
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Post by grouper6 on Jul 13, 2011 19:15:46 GMT -5
Billboard is saying Colbie top 5, incubus #2 and beyonce looking at #5. Looking at both hIts and BB predictions, Beyonce's fall looks to be larger than usually with sales over 50k but less than 60k.
Adele will be out top 3 for sure and most likely top 5.
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grouper6
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Post by grouper6 on Jul 13, 2011 19:16:32 GMT -5
( www.billboard.com/...1-album-Timing is everything. And this week, country star Blake Shelton picked just the right time to release his new album, "Red River Blue," as it is on course to become his first No. 1 on the Billboard 200 chart next week. Industry sources suggest "The Voice" coach could sell around 110,000 copies of the set by week's end on Sunday, July 17. That would easily place it at No. 1, ahead of the likely No. 2 set -- Incubus' new "If Not Now, When?," which might do around 75,000. Shelton's Billboard 200 history dates back to his 2001 self-titled debut, which peaked at No. 45. He's since notched eight more chart entries, including four top 10 albums. His last studio set, "All About Tonight" (EP), debuted and peaked at No. 6 last August. That effort also became his first No. 1 on the Top Country Albums chart -- a destination he's clearly headed with his new "Red River Blue" album. "Red River Blue" is led by his No. 13 Billboard Hot 100 hit single "Honey Bee" -- his highest charting single on that tally. Other albums aiming for a big bow next week include Chris Young's "Neon" and Colbie Caillat's "All Of You," which will both likely start in the top five. Beyonce's "4" will likely yield the No. 1 slot to Shelton and slip to No. 5.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2011 19:46:16 GMT -5
The hits article on Blake is wrong. It says his last album, the "Hillbilly Bone" EP, opened with 23k. First off, that was not his last album. He released 2 EP's, and "Hillbilly Bone" was the 1st one. The 2nd one was the "All About Tonight" EP, which featured the 3-week #1 hit "All About Tonight" and another #1 hit in "Who Are You When I'm Not Looking". The "All About Tonight" EP opened at #1 on the country albums chart, just barely though. Source: www.billboard.com/#/news/eminem-recovers-no-1-on-billboard-200-matches-1004109807.story (scroll to 9th paragraph) However, as someone who follows country music a lot, 110-120k is quite good for "Red River Blue". The 2nd single is "God Gave Me You", and I will guarantee you that it will be another #1 smash for Blake. He has had a spotty radio record in terms of single success for a decade now, with a couple of smashes sprinkled in amongst underperforming songs, but lately, he's scored 7 straight top 10 hits, 6 of those going to #1 and "Honey Bee" is likely to finish the year as the biggest hit on Billboard's Hot Country Songs chart. It shot to the top in 10 weeks and stayed at #1 for 4 weeks. So I think his numbers are good, considering his last full-length album, 2008's "Startin' Fires", didn't even make it to Gold. "Red River Blue" will be his 1st double #1 (on Country Albums and Top 200) and I'm feeling confident that it will have some legs and continue to sell very well, especially given the response the 2nd single is already getting at country radio. He won his 1st Male Vocalist Award at last year's CMA's and I think he could repeat this year. The awards, the sales, and the hits will only keep coming. Some people might not like Blake, but a lot of others find his personality to be witty and infectious and I'm among the 2nd group. I think he is the newest superstar in country music, on the heels of Jason Aldean, and joining the likes of Kenny Chesney, Brad Paisley, and Keith Urban.
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Honeymoon
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Post by Honeymoon on Jul 13, 2011 19:48:44 GMT -5
Blake's debut is fine. I expected more too, but I have a feeling he will be a very consistent seller, so I wouldn't even rule out Platinum in the long run. Country albums typically have much longer shelf-lives than your average pop album.
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Honeymoon
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Post by Honeymoon on Jul 13, 2011 19:55:28 GMT -5
And also, not a shocking case of diminishing returns for Colbie. "I Do" spent all of one week in the Hot 100 top 50 (and that was its debut, months ago) and languished at radio. And the follow-up isn't faring too well either it seems. I like her though, so I hope she stays fairly consistent. As we saw with her debut, she's capable of selling lots of albums (two million+ of the debut), she just needs that big crossover radio hit which I think she's still very capable of. Easier said than done, I know.
And it indeed looks like Adele could drop out of the top three next week for the first time, assuming she doesn't increase from this week. It looks like Chris Young will do around 75k, right below Incubus' potential 80k. And I imagine Beyonce won't be too far below that either, maybe 70k?
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grouper6
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Post by grouper6 on Jul 13, 2011 20:32:01 GMT -5
And also, not a shocking case of diminishing returns for Colbie. "I Do" spent all of one week in the Hot 100 top 50 (and that was its debut, months ago) and languished at radio. And the follow-up isn't faring too well either it seems. I like her though, so I hope she stays fairly consistent. As we saw with her debut, she's capable of selling lots of albums (two million+ of the debut), she just needs that big crossover radio hit which I think she's still very capable of. Easier said than done, I know. And it indeed looks like Adele could drop out of the top three next week for the first time, assuming she doesn't increase from this week. It looks like Chris Young will do around 75k, right below Incubus' potential 80k. And I imagine Beyonce won't be too far below that either, maybe 70k? Well BB is saying Colbie Caillat top 5 with sales between 55-60k and Beyonce #5 so that puts her below 60k surely. Seems like a steeper than usually drop for her. Unless BB prediction is wrong.
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Wavey✨️
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Post by Wavey✨️ on Jul 13, 2011 20:34:30 GMT -5
Thank God,new number 1.
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grouper6
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Post by grouper6 on Jul 13, 2011 20:37:44 GMT -5
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Post by singingsparrow on Jul 13, 2011 20:42:56 GMT -5
I still don't get why many were predicting much higher first-week numbers for Blake Shelton's latest effort.
I'm cognizant of the fact Shelton has had quite a surge in momentum this past year, with his first consecutive handful of #1 singles, a successful stint as judge on "The Voice" and a happy marriage to fellow country superstar Miranda Lambert. No one is denying Shelton has a lot of wind in his sails and is as popular as ever.
But with that out of the way, come on. To put this in perspective, Jason Aldean's "My Kinda Party" bowed with 193,000 copies sold last November: the best opening week of any male country artist since Kenny Chesney's "When the Sun Goes Down" in 2004. And that was during the time the Christmas/holiday shopping season was really beginning to take full effect.
And taking into consideration Shelton's prior chart history, where none of his albums have obtained certifications surpassing Gold status..............did anyone seriously expect Shelton to rival Aldean's opening week figures? Up until this point, Shelton really wasn't selling much better than Craig Morgan, who dubiously has went his whole career to date charting multiple hit singles, but only managing one Gold album.
*
There's little doubt in my mind Shelton will turn out his most successful selling album with "Red River Blue" when all is said and done. I think it'll eventually reach Platinum status in one year's time. But I'm honestly baffled as to why there were larger expectations for his opening week in the first place.
Namaste, lisping HIBISCUS
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I Wish
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Post by I Wish on Jul 13, 2011 22:44:28 GMT -5
I expected 160k-175k from Shelton to be honest. But he'll most likely be a consistent seller so I'll deal with his opening numbers.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2011 3:31:59 GMT -5
^Brad Paisley is a much bigger star than Blake is, and Brad opened with a solid 153k I believe, so I didn't think Blake would outdo that, even with "The Voice".
He hasn't put out a full-length album in some time, and 2008's "Startin' Fires" (his last full-length one) opened with under 35k if I remember correctly. His 2010 EP's "Hillbilly Bone" and "All About Tonight" opened with 71k and 33k respectively.
So that's why I think 120k is perfect. He's doing a lot of promo this week too and I think it will be one of the bigger albums of the year.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Jul 14, 2011 5:21:25 GMT -5
Miranda has sold a lot more albums but Blake has better peaks on chart.
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on Jul 14, 2011 9:29:13 GMT -5
But I'm honestly baffled as to why there were larger expectations for his opening week in the first place. Quite possibly because his label is on record as having their eyes on a larger first week. Here's one example, from Warner Music Nashville SVP/Sales & Marketing Peter Strickland via Country Aircheck:The disclaimer notwithstanding, this isn't the only place Warner Nashville was throwing around the possibility of higher opening numbers for Blake (it is, however, the only place I can link at the moment). So I don't think it was unreasonable for fans/observers to also consider the possibility. Of course, 110-120K opening week for Blake, with the superstar treatment he has gotten both from Music Row and Hollywood, is by no means underwhelming because he is obviously set up for continued success and this still represents more than a 50% percentage increase from his Hillbilly Bone six-pack opening. Still, Chris Young's projected numbers represent the more interesting story of the week for me. If he really turns sales of 70-75K this week, that will represent a huge uptick for him (he would nearly triple the first week sales of The Man I Want to Be if these projections hold) and a confirmation that he really has taken things to the next level as a bankable country star on the rise. RCA Nashville has been very active on his behalf advancing his narrative as a talented singer coming into his own as a persona and artist, but Young has also quietly cultivated a very committed core fanbase. I almost wonder why RCA Nashville didn't push his album back by a week, since doing so would have likely coincided with "Tomorrow"'s airplay peak and also given him the #1 country album of the week.
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Caviar
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Post by Caviar on Jul 14, 2011 9:47:40 GMT -5
Anybody expecting 150k+ for Blake are crazy.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2011 9:51:28 GMT -5
But with that out of the way, come on. To put this in perspective, Jason Aldean's "My Kinda Party" bowed with 193,000 copies sold last November: the best opening week of any male country artist since Kenny Chesney's "When the Sun Goes Down" in 2004. And that was during the time the Christmas/holiday shopping season was really beginning to take full effect. Oh wow, well yeah with that in perspective this is a really good debut. Maybe people just don't understand how country male acts sell I guess. He will probably be very consistent and have longevity on the charts either way.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2011 9:53:54 GMT -5
But I'm honestly baffled as to why there were larger expectations for his opening week in the first place. Quite possibly because his label is on record as having their eyes on a larger first week. Here's one example, from Warner Music Nashville SVP/Sales & Marketing Peter Strickland via Country Aircheck:The disclaimer notwithstanding, this isn't the only place Warner Nashville was throwing around the possibility of higher opening numbers for Blake (it is, however, the only place I can link at the moment). So I don't think it was unreasonable for fans/observers to also consider the possibility. Of course, 110-120K opening week for Blake, with the superstar treatment he has gotten both from Music Row and Hollywood, is by no means underwhelming because he is obviously set up for continued success and this still represents more than a 50% percentage increase from his Hillbilly Bone six-pack opening. Still, Chris Young's projected numbers represent the more interesting story of the week for me. If he really turns sales of 70-75K this week, that will represent a huge uptick for him (he would nearly triple the first week sales of The Man I Want to Be if these projections hold) and a confirmation that he really has taken things to the next level as a bankable country star on the rise. RCA Nashville has been very active on his behalf advancing his narrative as a talented singer coming into his own as a persona and artist, but Young has also quietly cultivated a very committed core fanbase. I almost wonder why RCA Nashville didn't push his album back by a week, since doing so would have likely coincided with "Tomorrow"'s airplay peak and also given him the #1 country album of the week. It just seems like they were hoping he would top Brad Paisley but not that they were really expecting him to. If anything they knew he would come close, and based on these predictions, he will be. Only about 30k short of that.
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on Jul 14, 2011 10:01:55 GMT -5
It just seems like they were hoping he would top Brad Paisley but not that they were really expecting him to. If anything they knew he would come close, and based on these predictions, he will be. Only about 30k short of that. We're probably in semantics territory here, but my take is that labels (like movie studios) are very careful about the expectations game and don't like to put out numbers or thresholds that they don't think they can reach. The disclaimer notwithstanding, I think it's significant that a Warner sales guy brought up Brad Paisley's first week sales on his own and presented that as an attainable target. I do think, though, that the 152K figure was very much on the high end of the range the label had in mind. I would imagine 110-120K (which could still trend up) is safely within the range of their expectations, as well.
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Rodze
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Post by Rodze on Jul 14, 2011 10:23:38 GMT -5
Oh, record labels. I think know them.
Didn't they expect Katy Perry to open with 700k?
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I Wish
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Post by I Wish on Jul 14, 2011 10:29:51 GMT -5
As much as you all would love to continue ridiculing my expected sales from Shelton, the exec from Warner predicting around 150k is good enough for me. My projection was just a little bit higher than that, so while yes, I may "not know how country acts sell," I'm sure the Warner exec does.
You may now continue.
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