HITS 10/3-4: J. Cole 225-250k

[Enigma.]

J. Cole's opening reminds me of Eve a bit. She had her first, and only, number one album without any remarkable hits .. And also DMX who never had a top 20 single on Hot 100 on his own but his debut scanned 251k in its first week.

[slw84]

Sept 28, 2011 20:50:48 GMT -5 Oprah said:

Those are crazy numbers given none of his singles have been hits. I think his music is awful and he's rather busted to boot, but go 'head, I suppose.

Gurl, you betta read. I saw his pic up close on itunes and was like wish....not in a great way...I thought.he looked like a regular person on the street and not a rap.star....anyways good debut and to the other person that compared it to eve's debut I think eve had more.of a following bit I see your point.

[jj99$ - - LeLe]

DEad at Derulo. That will teach him for making indistinguishable, tired and boring music

[Honeymoon]

As many as nine new releases could debut in the Top 15 as J. Cole easily scores next week's #1 album. Still in six digits, Adele logs yet another week in the Top 3. Here's how it looks headed into the weekend:

*J Cole (Roc Nation/Columbia) 225-250k
*Blink-182 (Interscope) 130-150k
Adele (XL/Columbia) 100-110k
Tony Bennett (Columbia) 80-90k
Lady Antebellum (Capitol Nashville/EMI) 70-80k
*Wilco (dBpm/ANTI-) 65-70k
Lil Wayne (Cash Money/Universal Republic) 60-65k
*Switchfoot (Atlantic) 45-50k
*Chickenfoot (eOne) 40-45k
*Mastodon (Reprise) 35-40k
Jay Z & Kanye West (Roc-a-Fella/Roc Nation) 24-27k
*Nirvana (Geffen) 24-27k
Demi Lovato (Hollywood) 22-25k
Foster the People (Columbia) 20-23k
*Machine Head (Roadrunner) 18-21k
*Gloria Estefan (Verve) 18-21k

[rosemoor]

wow at Blink outsell Wilco and Mastodon that much. idgi.

[HolidayGuy]

Quite a dip for Demi Lovato's album, if projections hold. if it holds onto the high end of the projection, that's a 74% drop (from the SS numbers).

[Enigma.]

Foster the People (Columbia) 20-23k
Amazing consistency!

[when the pawn...]

Good 2nd week drop for Tony Bennett

[averystepfon]

Demi's sales

[Enigma.]

A bit over normal second week drop for Demi (from 96k to 25k). She could be selling 10k more AT BEST so it's not that bad. If I was her fan, I'd be more worried about that there's no second hit single in sight.

[I Wish]

Her fans were hoping for longevity and small decreases for this album, something Demi has failed to provide with her previous two albums. This drop is larger than expected, and with the average 30-35% drop in the third week, things aren't looking good at all.

That being said, the single they chose to be her second single really is the worst possible choice.

[₫anny Jerz ♔]

J. Cole has had a ton of buzz and underground support so I'm not shocked that he's debuting so well. I'm more surprised that he hasn't had a hit yet but I doubt that Urban will overlook him with those numbers, given he releases the right song.

[Hefty Hanna]

WHO THE FUCK is J. Cole!?!?!

LMFAO AND NONE FOR DERULO!!!

[Verisimilitude]

J. Cole, Blink-182 About to Rock Billboard 200 Chart

September 30, 2011

By Keith Caulfield (keith_caulfield), Los Angeles

As reported earlier, J. Cole is looking to snag his first No. 1 album -- with his first release -- next week on the Billboard 200 as his "Cole World: the Sideline Story" should easily top the list. Industry sources say the set is on track to sell around 240,000 copies by the end of the tracking week on Sunday, Oct. 2.

The 26-year old rapper will come in ahead of the revived Blink-182, which should bow at No. 2 with "Neighborhoods." The album may sell perhaps 140,000 copies.

On Nielsen SoundScan's Building chart below -- a precursor to the final Billboard 200 ranking -- reflecting the first four days (Monday through Thursday) of SoundScan's tracking week (which ends Sunday) as reported by six major merchants, J. Cole and Blink are in the predicted Nos. 1 and 2 slots, respectively.

Coming in at No. 3 on the Building chart is Adele's "21," which may slip to No. 4 on the final Billboard 200 next week, depending on how it performs over the weekend. Tony Bennett's "Duets II" -- which debuted at No. 1 this week on the Billboard 200 -- is ranked at No. 4 on the Building list.

Elsewhere on the Building tally, Wilco's "The Whole Love" stands at No. 6, which bodes well for a top 10 debut on the Billboard 200 next week. A top five arrival isn't out of the question, but it will have to perform strongly over the weekend to gain footing ahead of Bennett and Lady Antebellum's "Own the Night" (No. 5 on the Building chart).

Wilco is one of a wave of rock acts that are hoping to debut in the top 10, as evidenced by the Building chart. All-star band Chickenfoot, along with another foot band -- Switchfoot -- could both bow in the region. Their new albums are Nos. 8 and 9, respectively, on the Building chart. Finally, Mastodon sits at No. 10 on the list with its new "The Hunter" album, but a top 10 berth on the Billboard 200 isn't guaranteed for the set.

Glancing at the Building tally, there are a number of titles that look as if they are going to fall straight out of the Billboard 200's top 10 after debuting there last week. The droppers: Demi Lovato's "Unbroken," NeedToBreathe's "The Reckoning," Mindless Behavior's "#1 Girl," Gavin DeGraw's "Sweeter" and Pearl Jam's "Pearl Jam Twenty."

The final Billboard 200 chart won't be unveiled until the morning of Wednesday, Oct. 5. But until then, we have a preview of what the top 10 might look like, courtesy of SoundScan's Building Chart (See Below).

Nielsen SoundScan Building Chart

Rank LW

BB 200 Artist Title

1 NEW J. Cole "Cole World: the Sideline Story"
2 NEW Blink-182 "Neighborhoods"
3 3 Adele "21"
4 1 Tony Bennett "Duets II"
5 2 Lady Antebellum "Own the Night"
6 NEW Wilco "The Whole Love"
7 5 Lil Wayne "Tha Carter IV"
8 NEW Chickenfoot "Chickenfoot III"
9 NEW Switchfoot "Vice Verses"
10 NEW Mastodon "The Hunter"

The Building Chart reflects the first four days (Monday through Thursday) of SoundScan's tracking week (which ends Sunday) as reported by six major merchants: iTunes, Trans World Entertainment, Best Buy, Starbucks, Target and Anderson Merchandisers. Billboard estimates that they make up about 85% of all U.S. album sales.

[Deleted]

^ Billboard's doing midweeks now ???
Thought that was just a UK thing.

[discoloser]

Sept 30, 2011 12:45:28 GMT -5 I Wish said:

Her fans were hoping for longevity and small decreases for this album, something Demi has failed to provide with her previous two albums. This drop is larger than expected, and with the average 30-35% drop in the third week, things aren't looking good at all.

That being said, the single they chose to be her second single really is the worst possible choice.

True, and it doesnt help she isn't a visible face on Disney anymore. But im not sure why Hollywood would expect more from Demi for the reason's you said.

[KeepDeanWeird]

Sept 30, 2011 17:38:03 GMT -5 @gagalicious said:

^ Billboard's doing midweeks now ???
Thought that was just a UK thing.

Billboard finally gets clue after HDD has been doing this for how many years? Yet another example of just how slow they are to respond to the times.

[DJ General]

Wow, that is quite impressive for blink-182! :O

[Enigma.]

It is! I never thought they'd have such a loyal fanbase.

[rosemoor]

Wasn't Chickenfoot predicted to sell like 190k or sth? I forgot where I read it. I don't like the record at all. sounds so dated. worst supergroup ever.

[areyoureadytojump]

^Yes, that 190k was ridiculous. No effing way.

[Arabella21]

CHART DATE: 10/03/2011
LAST UPDATE: 10/03/2011 12:12:03
NOW IN: 54.02%

LW TW artist / album label power index
-- 1 J COLE ROC NATION/COLUMBIA 161,576
COLE WORLD: THE SIDELINE STORY
3 2 ADELE XL/COLUMBIA 104,676
21
-- 3 BLINK-182 INTERSCOPE 75,939
NEIGHBORHOODS
2 4 LADY ANTEBELLUM CAPITOL NASHVILLE/EMI 42,470
OWN THE NIGHT
1 5 TONY BENNETT COLUMBIA 39,423
DUETS II
5 6 LIL WAYNE CASH MONEY/UNIV REPUBLIC 33,592
THA CARTER IV
-- 7 WILCO DBPM/ANTI 22,069
WHOLE LOVE
-- 8 CHICKENFOOT EONE 21,257
CHICKENFOOT III
16 9 BRANTLEY GILBERT BIG MACHINE 16,492
HALFWAY TO HEAVEN
13 10 JASON ALDEAN BROKEN BOW 14,844
MY KINDA PARTY
11 11 GEORGE STRAIT MCA NASHVILLE 14,092
HERE FOR A GOOD TIME
21 12 NOW THAT'S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 39 CAPITOL/EMI 13,225
VARIOUS ARTISTS
22 13 LUKE BRYAN CAPITOL NASHVILLE/EMI 12,827
TAILGATES & TANLINES
4 14 DEMI LOVATO HOLLYWOOD 12,813
UNBROKEN
-- 15 MASTODON REPRISE 11,624
HUNTER
9 16 JAY Z & KANYE WEST ROC-A-FELLA/ROC NATION 11,496
WATCH THE THRONE
23 17 BEYONCE COLUMBIA 9,332
4
8 18 MINDLESS BEHAVIOR INTERSCOPE 9,180
#1 GIRL
-- 19 GLORIA ESTEFAN VERVE 9,092
MISS LITTLE HAVANA
-- 20 NIRVANA GEFFEN 8,699
NEVERMIND
29 21 ERIC CHURCH CAPITOL NASHVILLE/EMI 8,389
CHIEF
15 22 RED HOT CHILI PEPPERS WARNER BROS. 8,241
I'M WITH YOU
19 23 LADY GAGA INTERSCOPE 8,036
BORN THIS WAY
33 24 BLAKE SHELTON WARNER BROS. NASHVILLE 7,778
RED RIVER BLUE
14 25 FOSTER THE PEOPLE STARTIME/COLUMBIA 7,401
TORCHES
26 26 ADELE XL/COLUMBIA 7,233
19
-- 27 SWITCHFOOT ATLANTIC 6,674
VICE VERSES
35 28 JAKE OWEN RCA NASHVILLE 6,138
BAREFOOT BLUE JEAN NIGHT
42 29 THE BAND PERRY UNIV REPUBLIC NASHVILLE 5,613
THE BAND PERRY
50 30 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 5,477
SPEAK NOW
12 31 CODY SIMPSON ATLANTIC 5,257
COAST TO COAST
-- 32 JUSTIN MOORE VALORY 5,194
OUTLAWS LIKE ME
-- 33 MACHINE HEAD ROADRUNNER 5,088
UNTO THE LOCUST
47 34 SELENA GOMEZ & THE SCENE HOLLYWOOD 5,072
WHEN THE SUN GOES DOWN
48 35 ZAC BROWN BAND ATLANTIC 4,910
YOU GET WHAT YOU GIVE
43 36 LADY ANTEBELLUM CAPITOL NASHVILLE/EMI 4,862
NEED YOU NOW
-- 37 JASON DERULO ATLANTIC 4,760
FUTURE HISTORY
28 38 STAIND ATLANTIC 4,715
STAIND
32 39 KATY PERRY CAPITOL/EMI 4,681
TEENAGE DREAM
-- 40 BRAD PAISLEY ARISTA NASHVILLE 4,659
THIS IS COUNTRY MUSIC
-- 41 KIDZ BOP KIDS RAZOR & TIE 4,549
KIDZ BOP 20
31 42 JACKIE EVANCHO COLUMBIA 4,425
DREAM WITH ME
-- 43 LE'ANDRIA JOHNSON MUSIC WORLD 4,043
AWAKENING OF LE'ANDRIA JOHNSON
30 44 BAD MEETS EVIL SHADY/INTERSCOPE 4,039
HELL: THE SEQUEL
34 45 LMFAO INTERSCOPE 3,933
SORRY FOR PARTY ROCKING
-- 46 BRUNO MARS NEW ELEKTRA 3,544
DOO-WOPS & HOOLIGANS
27 47 MAROON 5 A&M/OCTONE 3,409
HANDS ALL OVER
45 48 VICTORIOUS FEAT/VICTORIA JUSTICE NICKELODEON/COLUMBIA 3,389
SOUNDTRACK
49 49 RIHANNA DEF JAM/IDJ 3,255
LOUD
44 50 GAME INTERSCOPE 2,975
R.E.D. ALBUM

[Enigma.]

lol at Jason Derulo...granted, his first album wasn't exactly a blockbuster either even though the singles from it sold something like 8 million

[areyoureadytojump]

HITS' building album sales chart:

www.hitsdailydouble.com/sales/salescht.cgi

[areyoureadytojump]

ONE year ago:

www.hitsdailydouble.com/sales/archcht.cgi?cht416

CHART DATE: 10/04/2010

-- 1 KENNY CHESNEY BNA/RCA NASHVILLE 181,595 --
HEMINGWAY'S WHISKEY
-- 2 LIL WAYNE CASH MONEY/UNIV MOTOWN 108,791 --
I AM NOT A HUMAN BEING
1 3 ZAC BROWN BAND ATLANTIC 70,139 -55%
YOU GET WHAT YOU GIVE
-- 4 GUCCI MANE ASYLUM 61,450 --
APPEAL: GEORGIA'S MOST WANTED
5 5 EMINEM SHADY/AFTERMATH/INT 59,598 -7%
RECOVERY
-- 6 ERIC CLAPTON REPRISE 46,730 --
CLAPTON
3 7 LINKIN PARK WARNER BROS. 42,648 -36%
A THOUSAND SUNS
6 8 TREY SONGZ ATLANTIC 41,895 -33%
PASSION PAIN & PLEASURE
7 9 SELENA GOMEZ & THE SCENE HOLLYWOOD 39,596 -36%
A YEAR WITHOUT RAIN
2 10 MAROON 5 A&M/OCTONE 39,460 -73%
HANDS ALL OVER

[pnobelysk]

Sept 30, 2011 9:21:01 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

A bit over normal second week drop for Demi (from 96k to 25k). She could be selling 10k more AT BEST so it's not that bad. If I was her fan, I'd be more worried about that there's no second hit single in sight.

fix a heart could be the 2nd single. im not sure releasing 2 ballads in a row is the best idea, but it showed good reception first week and charted at 69 on the hot 100 without promo.

[areyoureadytojump]

CORRECTED

Albums out today:

Scot McCreery
Rodney Atkins
Feist
New Found Glory
Jack's Mannequin

A light release schedule this week...

[badrobot]

Whoa -- if none of those albums crack 100k, could Adele end up back at #1 next week?!

[Minor Scratch]

None of those should crack 100K. Adele should be #1 unless J. Cole pulls a miracle and has a weak drop. SLY is too huge right now.

[Deleted]

-- 37 JASON DERULO ATLANTIC 4,760
FUTURE HISTORY

I'm dying.