HDD 11/9/11: Mac Miller 175-185k, Twilight 120k+.

[Push The Button]

BIG MAC!!

Pittsburgh rapper Mac Miller Scores #1 with 175-185k, Twilight, Now Bow

November 9, 2011

In the immortal words of Nikki Finke, “Toldja!”
That’s right, just like we said last week, Rostrum Records rapper Mac Miller’s Blue Slide Park, distributed digitally by INgrooves and physically by Fontana, will debut at #1 smack dab in the middle of Q4, with estimates of between 175-185k, which might even be conservative.

This is a triumph of social networking and good, new-fashioned viral marketing, as Malcolm McCormick, the son of a Christian architect father and Jewish mother photographer, transforms his combined 2.7 million Twitter, Facebook and MySpace followers into an impressive debut.

This is Miller’s physical full-length debut after a series of well-received digital mixtapes, an EP, On and On and On Beyond, and a smash video in “Donald Trump.”

Those figures are based on one-day sales figures from music retailers, some of whom are even holding out at brick-and-mortar outlets, though it’s looking like digital might even surpass physical on this release.

Also on tap, Chop Shop/Atlantic’s Twilight: Breaking Dawn soundtrack, which arrives before the film’s Nov. 18 release, should do between 120-130k.

Capitol/EMI’s Now 40, the latest in the compilation series, should debut in the low six figures, with a projected total of 100-110K.

Sony Music Latin star Romeo Santos’ solo debut, Formula Vol. 1, which includes cameos by Lil Wayne, Pitbull, Usher and George Lopez, will debut with between 65-75k after being #1 on iTunes Latin Music chart and #4 overall. Santos will perform the current single, “Promise,” with Usher tomorrow night on the Latin Grammy Awards.

Syco/Columbia’s Il Divo album, Wicked Game, their first since 2008’s The Promise, will bow with between 50-60k.

Reprise Chicago metal mavens Disturbed’s Asylum, their follow-up to 2008’s Indestructible, is on target for a first-week total of 35-40k

Veteran Strange Music Kansas City rapper Tech N9ne’s Welcome to Strangeland, the fourth in his “Collabos” series, was released on the hip-hop star’s 40 th birthday and is looking at between 24-27k.

Sour Mash/Mercury artist Noel Gallagher’s High Flying Birds debuts with 12-15k for the Oasis guitarist.

Album sales were up 10% vs. last week, up 14% vs. same week last year and up 3% year to date.

Track sales were up 4% vs. last week, up 5% vs. same week last year and up 10% year to date.

TEA (Track Equivalent Album) sales were up 8% vs. last week, up 11% vs. same week last year and up 5% year to date.

Of course, we’ve been down so long, anything seems like up to us.

[areyoureadytojump]

Wow. Wasn't expecting that.

[Verisimilitude]

Sugar honey iced tea, say what? Asher Roth had an actual crossover hit and never had numbers this big.

[sofaraway26]

Great sales for Disturbed b-sides compilation :)

[jgizzle89]

HIP HOP IS DOING IT!

Lil Wayne dominated, Cole, Wale, and now Mac Miller are shattering expectations. Drake is up next week, things are looking good!

[Minor Scratch]

Astonishing sales for Mac Miller. Viral marketing through the Internet is paying off big time for the newer rappers in hip hop. Mac might approach Justin Bieber numbers at this pace. And Wale wasn't that far behind Biebs either. No radio airplay whatsoever for this guy as well. Hopefully record labels are taking immediate notice of this.

[NeRD]

WOAH get that #1 album Mac! :o

[I Wish]

I'm in awe. Good for him!

[Deleted]

The power of YouTube :o

[when the pawn...]

Yup - huge openings this year for Lupe Fiasco, Big Sean, Wiz Khalifa, J. Cole, Wale & Mac Miller (not even counting TC4 and WTT as well as big carry-over sales for Nicki).

[badrobot]

Never even heard of this Mac Miller guy.

[hazuki]

Hip Hop Ain't Dead!

[Taylor.]

Get that #1 Mac Miller.

[Wavey✨️]

Another number 1 from a Pittsburgh native!!

[HolidayGuy]

Add one to the "Never-heard-of-Mac-Miller" club- until now, of course. :)

[Agent Yoncé]

What is w/these rappers getting these #1 albums?!?! Wow!

[DJ General]

I'm thinking Drake is a lock for 500k+ for sure.

If these artists are pulling in nearly 200k with no hits, Drake with a fan base 10x the size and multiple hits, he should be doing 600-750k next week

[Minor Scratch]

This is true, but I think we are seeing a change in the buying public now. As a pop artist, its proven that you don't necessarily need any sort of hit song (or multiple hit songs) anymore to solidify huge first week sales numbers in 2011. Its evident now that 1) an effective viral Internet marketing campaign, 2) consistent touring, and 3) not changing your music style for a label-pushed hit single is enough to garner high sales as a debut artist.

Comparing Mac to a similar artist like Asher Roth who achieved the first two but then went ahead with the label-pushed hit single (I Love College), he evidently killed his career because he couldn't simply rap anymore without being subjected as a novelty act. Mac is obviously not having any of that and sticking independently.

[Deleted]

Mac had a lot of buzz throughout the year so I'm glad it has all paid off for him. Rap has been slaying this year though, especially newcomers which is really refreshing nowdayes.

[Verisimilitude]

Mac Miller On Way to Indie History at No. 1 on Billboard 200 Chart

November 09, 2011
By Keith Caulfield, Los Angeles

Recent Billboard magazine cover man Mac Miller is on his way to his first No. 1 album on the Billboard 200 chart, as his debut effort, "Blue Slide Park," should easily top the list next week. Industry sources suggest the set will sell upwards of 180,000 copies by Nov. 13.

The Rostrum Records release is distributed by INgrooves via Fontana Distribution, Universal Music Group Distribution's indie arm.

If "Blue Slide Park" bows atop the list, it will mark the first independently-distributed debut album to hit No. 1 since 1995. The last (and only previous) was Tha Dogg Pound's "Dogg Food." It started in the penthouse on the chart dated Nov. 18, 1995, with 278,000 sold, according to Nielsen SoundScan. "Dogg Food" was released on Death Row/Interscope, but independently distributed via Priority.

Also on tap for top 10 debuts next week is the "Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1" soundtrack with around 90,000 to 110,000 sold. The new "Now 40" compilation could start with around 100,000 as well, while Aventura member Romeo Santos' debut solo album, "Formula Vol. 1," may shift 60,000 copies.

The last "Twilight" soundtrack, "Eclipse," entered the tally on June 26, 2010, at No. 2 with 146,000. The previous "Now" album ("Now 39") debuted and peaked at No. 3 in August with a 110,000 start.

[Enigma.]

Nov 9, 2011 19:49:30 GMT -5 DJ General said:

I'm thinking Drake is a lock for 500k+ for sure.

If these artists are pulling in nearly 200k with no hits, Drake with a fan base 10x the size and multiple hits, he should be doing 600-750k next week

Thank Me Later didn't have very long legs and it's only at 1.5 million after opening of 447k. Might do 600k but I'm a bit sceptic after Lady Antebellum and Coldplay failed to reach those numbers coming from multi-platinum level.

[Linnethia Monique]

Nov 10, 2011 3:08:58 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Nov 9, 2011 19:49:30 GMT -5 DJ General said:

I'm thinking Drake is a lock for 500k+ for sure.

If these artists are pulling in nearly 200k with no hits, Drake with a fan base 10x the size and multiple hits, he should be doing 600-750k next week

Thank Me Later didn't have very long legs and it's only at 1.5 million after opening of 447k. Might do 600k but I'm a bit sceptic after Lady Antebellum and Coldplay failed to reach those numbers coming from multi-platinum level.

Both of those artists you mentioned were coming off of #1 singles and LA didn't hit it big until the Grammy's which only skyrocketed the single when it went for Pop adds.

[Arabella21]

As the fourth quarter retail rush begins in earnest, Pittsburgh rapper Mac Miller could be looking at the first indie debut to bow at #1 since Tha Dogg Pound did it for Priority back in 1995, along with the first-ever chart-topper for Fontana, whose Ron Spaulding just happened to be at Priority when Tha Dogg Pound album came out. In all, look for up to five albums to score in six figures, as big releases Drake and Rihanna wait on deck.

*Mac Miller (Rostrum) 170-180k
Michael Buble (Reprise) 110-120k
*Now 40 (Capitol/EMI) 105-115k
*Twilight: Breaking Dawn (Chop Shop/Atlantic) 100-110k
Adele (XL/Columbia) 95-105k
Justin Bieber (Island/IDJ) 85-90k
Susan Boyle (Syco/Columbia) 70-75k
*Romeo Santos (Sony Music Latin) 70-75k
Miranda Lambert (RCA Nashville) 65-70k
Coldplay (Capitol/EMI) 65-70k
*Il Divo (Syco/Columbia) 55-60k
Jackie Evancho (Columbia) 45-50k
Wale (Warner Bros.) 45-50k
Florence & the Machine (Universal Republic) 40-45k
Scotty McCreery (Mercury/19/Interscope) 35-40k

*Debuts (11/10p)

[HolidayGuy]

Jackie Evancho undoubtedly should reach the top 10 in coming weeks, I'd think. Question is- will Michael Buble reach the top? Perhaps his album will be a contender after the rush of releases settles down at the end of the month/early December.

[Deleted]

I think Buble will be this year's Josh Groban/ Andre Bocelli.

[Enigma.]

Without a doubt.

I also predict that Scotty McCreery will do very well this Christmas, definitely be over a million come January.

*Romeo Santos (Sony Music Latin) 70-75k
Very impressive for a latin act (although r&b)

[livelikedying111]

When's Black Firday? I need a sales craze as soon as possible.

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

What about Master P when he debuted at #1.

[Arabella21]

Nov 11, 2011 3:12:18 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

I also predict that Scotty McCreery will do very well this Christmas, definitely be over a million come January.

I never understood the doubts or low sales predictions with Scotty. Winning Idol doesn't mean automatically going gold or platinum anymore, but for some reason people thought it meant there wouldn't be any success stories out of AI ever again. But Scotty dominated the voting in AI's comeback season, he's in a genre that sells well, he had a hit song this summer, his label is competent and actually cares about his success. It's completely different ballgame than the recent years of Hot AC guys with weak A&R and/or promo.

[realestdownhere]

New rappers like Wiz Khalifa, J.Cole, Wale and now Mac Miller all got similar debuts this year: 175-225k.. Drake got top spot on lock for next week (500k i guess). After that another newcomer Yelawolf is dropping the album.. 150-200k for him?